Los Angeles Angels (2023) WAR Machines

[WicketMaiden]

As expected by now, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are flying high on the WAR leader-boards.

Ohtani is top in bWAR with 1.1 and is no3 in fWAR with 0.9.

Trout is joint 8th in bWAR with 0.8 and is joint 5th in fWAR with 0.8.

Other Angels to note are Urshela with 0.4 fWAR; Ward and Renfroe both with 0.3 fWAR.

Sandoval and Urshela both have 0.5 bWAR.

Urshela is looking like a great signing, as is Renfroe, now we need the rest of the supporting cast to start performing above replacement level.

(Loup is somehow 0.0 fWAR; Drury is bottom of the pile at -0.2.)

[Taylor]

Sounds like every April since 2018.

[Chuck]

31 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

As expected by now, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are flying high on the WAR leader-boards.

Ohtani is top in bWAR with 1.1 and is no3 in fWAR with 0.9.

Trout is joint 8th in bWAR with 0.8 and is joint 5th in fWAR with 0.8.

Other Angels to note are Urshela with 0.4 fWAR; Ward and Renfroe both with 0.3 fWAR.

Sandoval and Urshela both have 0.5 bWAR.

Urshela is looking like a great signing, as is Renfroe, now we need the rest of the supporting cast to start performing above replacement level.

(Loup is somehow 0.0 fWAR; Drury is bottom of the pile at -0.2.)

Great update, @WicketMaiden!! Please keep us posted on player WAR developments as the season progresses. 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Hopefully Drury can be a bit better than useless as the season goes on.

[Docwaukee]

I figured O'Hoppe would have accumulated more.  He's been so good.   

[Chuck]

24 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I figured O'Hoppe would have accumulated more.  He's been so good.   

Good point. I haven't looked, what is O'Hoppe's current fWAR and bWAR?

[WicketMaiden]

28 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good point. I haven't looked, what is O'Hoppe's current fWAR and bWAR?

Logan has 0.2 on both metrics. Surprisingly low.

[Chuck]

5 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Logan has 0.2 on both metrics. Surprisingly low.

Crazy. Something is wrong with how they calculate WAR then.

[Angelsfan1984]

42 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I figured O'Hoppe would have accumulated more.  He's been so good.   

This is where it seems that WAR doesnt provide a true full representation of a players contributions. His defense has been outstanding. His hitting has been way better than expected for managing a staff as a rookie. I'll take what he brings to the table all day every day. 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Crazy. Something is wrong with how they calculate WAR then.

So does that mean it's wrong for Trout and Ohtani, too? 

[WicketMaiden]

20 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Crazy. Something is wrong with how they calculate WAR then.

 

19 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

This is where it seems that WAR doesnt provide a true full representation of a players contributions. His defense has been outstanding. His hitting has been way better than expected for managing a staff as a rookie. I'll take what he brings to the table all day every day. 

Well, he is only hitting with a .240 avg, and has a .985 fielding % with one error and only two assists. He has had 25 AB's compared to Shohei's 33 and Trout's 31, so he's down there too with WAR being made up of a lot of counting stats. Sure, he looks great to us with 3 HR's, but all round he isn't contributing as much as the eye would fool us to believe. So 0.2 WAR looks about right to me.

[Make Angels Great Again]

I would love this production out of O'hoppe all season. But that's probably not realistic.

 

But his positive WAR is pretty much solely held up from his home runs at this point. he's got a 17% caught stealing rate and only a .286 OBP. The .640 SLG will obviously drop.

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Sure, he looks great to us with 3 HR's, but all round he isn't contributing as much as the eye would fool us to believe. So 0.2 WAR looks about right to me.

Being visually entertained is part of the appeal of any player. 

 

[Angelsfan1984]

9 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

 

Well, he is only hitting with a .240 avg, and has a .985 fielding % with one error and only two assists. He has had 25 AB's compared to Shohei's 33 and Trout's 31, so he's down there too with WAR being made up of a lot of counting stats. Sure, he looks great to us with 3 HR's, but all round he isn't contributing as much as the eye would fool us to believe. So 0.2 WAR looks about right to me.

.240 out of a rookie catcher and controlling a pitching staff he's never caught isn't deceiving. He's doing a great job. 

[WicketMaiden]

21 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

.240 out of a rookie catcher and controlling a pitching staff he's never caught isn't deceiving. He's doing a great job. 

I agree, he's doing great for a rookie, but WAR isn't sentimental about such things and compared to the whole of MLB he's doing just above OK.

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

So does that mean it's wrong for Trout and Ohtani, too? 

No, but it makes me wonder if they don't take into effect all the work a catcher puts into a game with the pitchers, defensively, keeping the running game in check...in addition to just his bat. 

[WicketMaiden]

16 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

No, but it makes me wonder if they don't take into effect all the work a catcher puts into a game with the pitchers, defensively, keeping the running game in check...in addition to just his bat. 

Interesting idea but how would you measure it? He has a 17% caught stealing rate and has given up 5 steals (just under 1 per start), so he isn't doing that great of a job against the running game but is just about League average which is 16% CS rate. I love the guy and think he's been a great acquisition, but he isn't Salvador Perez yet (0.3 bWAR, .265 avg, 2 stolen bases given up).

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

No, but it makes me wonder if they don't take into effect all the work a catcher puts into a game with the pitchers, defensively, keeping the running game in check...in addition to just his bat. 

It's been 9 games.  Even at "only" 0.2 WAR as of right now, that would put him on pace for 3.6 for the full season--which would have been the 9th-highest total of any catcher last season.

[Pheenom07]

Way to use the maths on us.  I’d take a 3.6 WAR over a full season on a rookie catcher.  I’m sure our Stassi/AAAA setup last year was negative. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, WicketMaiden said:

Logan has 0.2 on both metrics. Surprisingly low.

 

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Crazy. Something is wrong with how they calculate WAR then.

His OBP is .286 -- that's what's dinging him.  But even with that piss poor OBP his 0.2 fWAR is good for 7th best among all catchers.

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

So does that mean it's wrong for Trout and Ohtani, too? 

I'd argue that Will Smith's .357/.457/.787 does more to make one question how they calculate catcher bWAR than O'Hoppe's 0.2.

[Chuck]

@WicketMaiden if you could update this thread throughout the season weekly or at a cadence that is convenient to you that would be great. 

[gurn67]

O'Hoppe's OPS+ is 165. I don't care what his WAR is.

[WicketMaiden]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

@WicketMaiden if you could update this thread throughout the season weekly or at a cadence that is convenient to you that would be great. 

Yes, I was going to do that @Chuckster70, was thinking of weekly updates, probably at the end of each weekend when I've got the spare time.

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, gurn67 said:

O'Hoppe's OPS+ is 165. I don't care what his WAR is.

 

[WicketMaiden]

UPDATE:

After Shohei’s latest HR in the win against the Yankees, he now leads the way in all MLB according to Baseball Reference with 1.8 bWAR (Gerrit Cole is 2nd with 1.5), although Fangraphs seem a little less impressed and have him tied for 2nd with 1.2 fWAR (behind Matt Chapman’s 1.4 fWAR).

Trout has fallen away quite a lot and is down to 0.5 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR (tied for 20th in fWAR).

Renfroe, Sandoval, and Quijada all have a healthy 0.6 bWAR.

With Wantz, Urshela, and O’Hoppe also looking pretty good at 0.5 bWAR.

In the hall of shame there will be few surprised by Tepera ‘leading’ the way with a pretty eye-watering -0.7 bWAR for his four innings of work so far. Suarez (-0.4 bWAR) and Loup (-0.3 bWAR) trail in his wake with the ball in hand, with Rengifo also channeling his inner-bullpen with a poor -0.3 bWAR, worse than even David Fletcher’s -0.2.

Ward and Rendon both have 0.2 bWAR, and Lamb is at 0.0 bWAR, so he’s giving the team pretty much exactly the same as a AAAA type player would be expected to give in the same situations (just saying, Perry).

Fangraphs agree about Lamb's value (-0.1 fWAR), and have Renfroe up at 0.8 fWAR just behind Trout, then a big step back to Urshela with 0.4 fWAR.

Wantz, Ward, Quijada, and Detmers all come in at 0.3 fWAR; then another half dozen at 0.2 fWAR including O’Hoppe and Sandoval.

Rendon doesn’t care as much about fWAR with 0.0 (the same as Loup), and fWAR doesn’t care much for Anderson with a team ‘leading’ -0.3 fWAR. Tepera has -0.1; Rengifo and Drury -0.2 fWAR.

And did I mention Shohei's home run in the win against the Yankees?