Keith Law's Top 20 Angels Prospects

[jsnpritchett]

https://theathletic.com/4167188/2023/02/11/angels-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/

I'll leave the full write-ups, etc for the paid article, but here are the actual rankings:

1. Neto

2. O'Hoppe 

3. Quero

4. Bush

5. Paris

6. Guzman

7. Silseth

8. Bachman

9. Calabrese

10. Blakely

11. Placencia

12. Madden 

13. Adams

14. Marceaux

15. Erla

16. DiChiara

17. Dana

18. Rada

19. Joyce

20. Mederos

[Chuck]

Well at least Keith Law is aligned with our thinking on Paris’ ranking. 
 

Neto over O’Hoppe is interesting and Silseth at 7th is perplexing. 

[Stradling]

Joyce and Mederos seem low based on how it sounds like the club feels about them. 

[jsnpritchett]

45 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Well at least Keith Law is aligned with our thinking on Paris’ ranking. 
 

Neto over O’Hoppe is interesting and Silseth at 7th is perplexing. 

Here's what he says about Silseth:

"Silseth was the first 2021 draft pick to reach the majors, which was certainly a surprise since he was an 11th-round pick who had a 5.55 ERA in his draft year at the University of Arizona. He’s a three-pitch starter with a plus slider, a high-spin four-seamer at 94-97 mph, and a splitter that just doesn’t have the consistent bottom that it needs. He got torched by lefties in the majors and the splitter’s lack of finish was a big reason, as lefties got it and they had better success against the fastball because the splitter often ended up in the same zone as the four-seamer. He could still be a starter, though, if that pitch improves or he tries a changeup or split-change. The two weapons he has give him a high floor as a reliever."

[jsnpritchett]

34 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Joyce and Mederos seem low based on how it sounds like the club feels about them. 

19. Ben Joyce, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-5 | 225 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 89 in 2022

 

Joyce hit 105 last spring for the University of Tennessee, but he doesn’t have an average second pitch or particularly good command of the fastball. The Angels did the smart thing and sent him right out to Double A, as guys who throw this hard don’t usually throw this hard for very long, and Joyce has already had one Tommy John surgery. He’ll have to develop his slider to be a big-league reliever.

 

20. Victor Mederos, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 227 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 178 in 2022

 

Mederos is 96-98 mph with a plus slider and a changeup that might be plus as well, but hitters tag his fastball and he can’t get to the secondaries to get swings and misses. It’s a high-effort delivery with a big head-whack at release, so his command is poor and he’s probably a reliever in the long run, although he has the three pitches to start. He was born in Cuba, spent a year at Miami, and the Angels drafted him in the sixth round out of Oklahoma State.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Well at least Keith Law is aligned with our thinking on Paris’ ranking. 
 

Neto over O’Hoppe is interesting and Silseth at 7th is perplexing. 

I assume he's looking at Neto as the bigger prospect in terms of ceiling, not floor. And I hope he's right.

I've said it before. If Neto works out it's going to be huge for this team. And works out doesn't mean all-star. If we get another Aybar out of him we did very well.

Also. When we drafted him @Lou posted the clip from Training Day. And I can't get it out of my head every time I see Neto mentioned on here.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I assume he's looking at Neto as the bigger prospect in terms of ceiling, not floor. And I hope he's right.

I've said it before. If Neto works out it's going to be huge for this team. And works out doesn't mean all-star. If we get another Aybar out of him we did very well.

Also. When we drafted him @Lou posted the clip from Training Day. And I can't get it out of my head every time I see Neto mentioned on here.

@ten ocho recon scout I'm not sure if you saw the 10-min interview I had with the young man, but I came away impressed with his attitude, love for the game and work ethic. 

 

 

[cgoldangel]

I was surprised to see Calabrese so high though he did have a good second half. And Jackson was not on the list.

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Also. When we drafted him @Lou posted the clip from Training Day. And I can't get it out of my head every time I see Neto mentioned on here.

 

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

Two random thoughts:

Whenever I read just about any non-fan reports on Silseth, I have the same thought: "I think we might be overrating this guy." In a similar way that some were overrating Canning (remember the "future TOR starter" gang?). Meaning, we probably should be happy if Silseth becomes a solid #3-4, but literally no one sees a possible ace except for Angels fans.

David Calabrese sounds like the new D'Shawn Knowles, or what we thought Knowles would become: an "elite fourth outfielder."

 

[jsnpritchett]

44 minutes ago, cgoldangel said:

I was surprised to see Calabrese so high though he did have a good second half. And Jackson was not on the list.

Jackson is the first player listed in the "Others of Note" section: 

"Second baseman/shortstop Jeremiah Jackson missed the majority of 2021 due to injury, then the Angels jumped him from Low A to Double A for the start of 2022, and he struggled to a .215/.308/.404 line because he just didn’t hit offspeed stuff at all. He can still play shortstop, but the Angels had him play more at second with a few games at third to try to give him a path as a utility player. He’s only 23 this year and I don’t think all is lost, but since his huge 23-homer outburst in short-season Orem in 2019, setting the Pioneer League’s single-season record, there aren’t many positives on his stat sheet to justify much optimism."

[BTH]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Whenever I read just about any non-fan reports on Silseth, I have the same thought: "I think we might be overrating this guy." In a similar way that some were overrating Canning (remember the "future TOR starter" gang?). Meaning, we probably should be happy if Silseth becomes a solid #3-4, but literally no one sees a possible ace except for Angels fans.

Agreed. I think best case, he’s a quality MLB starter. Worst case, he’s a quality MLB reliever.

But I wouldn’t even think of attaching front of the rotation upside to Silseth.

 

[BTH]

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

David Calabrese sounds like the new D'Shawn Knowles, or what we thought Knowles would become: an "elite fourth outfielder."

I disagree with this.

Knowles didn’t have success in Single-A until his age 21 season, which was also his second season in A-ball.

Calabrese was 19 in his first Single-A season, and he torched the Cal League once he went back to his old swing.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I disagree with this.

Knowles didn’t have success in Single-A until his age 21 season, which was also his second season in A-ball.

Calabrese was 19 in his first Single-A season, and he torched the Cal League once he went back to his old swing.

Emphasis on "What we thought he would be." 

But sure, Calabrese could be a peak Chad Curtis type, if we're lucky (minus the perv).

[Docwaukee]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Whenever I read just about any non-fan reports on Silseth, I have the same thought: "I think we might be overrating this guy." In a similar way that some were overrating Canning (remember the "future TOR starter" gang?).

I don't remember that at all.  I'm pretty sure most were in the 'solid MOTR with possible ace upside.'  

There were some erroneous reports of his FB velo being 95/96 consistently.  

The general narrative was that his solid four pitch mix could result in the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.  He did as expected for a good young pitcher when he was forced into action too early and that was to perform decently well yet still needing experience.  

Then he got injured and has been fighting his way back.   And his career FIP- is 103 even with that early stretch in 2021 where he was injured and not very good.  Before that it was 94.  

'Some' tend to overrate guys because they don't watch them or pay attention to their flaws.  Adell is a perfect example of that.  He's got super star raw tools if this, that and this happen.  Then they do a poor job of assessing whether those things are improving.  

Silseth is a much different player than Canning.  Canning has four solid pitches.  For him it was all about repetition and sequencing.  Refining his command and control.  For Chase it's more about the actual development of certain pitches.  His secondaries flash plus but they weren't a lot early on and he got away with it because of his velo.  He still does and they need work.  But they're all TOR pitches at times.  Especially if he learns to use them together.  His most likely outcome is still that of a MOTR arm, a pen arm or an inconsistent back of the rotation guy.  But he's ranked as high as he is because of that ceiling.  Which few players have.  Canning never had his ceiling.    

[Revad]

6 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I don't remember that at all.  I'm pretty sure most were in the 'solid MOTR with possible ace upside.'  

There were some erroneous reports of his FB velo being 95/96 consistently.  

The general narrative was that his solid four pitch mix could result in the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.  He did as expected for a good young pitcher when he was forced into action too early and that was to perform decently well yet still needing experience.  

Then he got injured and has been fighting his way back.   And his career FIP- is 103 even with that early stretch in 2021 where he was injured and not very good.  Before that it was 94.  

'Some' tend to overrate guys because they don't watch them or pay attention to their flaws.  Adell is a perfect example of that.  He's got super star raw tools if this, that and this happen.  Then they do a poor job of assessing whether those things are improving.  

Silseth is a much different player than Canning.  Canning has four solid pitches.  For him it was all about repetition and sequencing.  Refining his command and control.  For Chase it's more about the actual development of certain pitches.  His secondaries flash plus but they weren't a lot early on and he got away with it because of his velo.  He still does and they need work.  But they're all TOR pitches at times.  Especially if he learns to use them together.  His most likely outcome is still that of a MOTR arm, a pen arm or an inconsistent back of the rotation guy.  But he's ranked as high as he is because of that ceiling.  Which few players have.  Canning never had his ceiling.    

It will be interesting to see what Canning does assuming he stays healthy.  If somehow both Canning and Silseth have success this year, the Angels will truly have SP depth, I mean we have better depth than we used to now (where’s the f-ing pitching), but if things break right we end up with quite a pitching staff in 2024.