Free agent pitchers you want the team to avoid this offseason?

[Dtwncbad]

3 hours ago, Rollinghard said:

Scherzer (will be 37 on Opening Day)
Verlander (will be 39 on Opening Day)
Kershaw ( will be 34 on Opening Day and wearing a back brace and worrisome elbow)
Greinke (will be 38 on Opening Day)

 

These guys are bulldogs. When was the last time the Angels had a 37 year old No. 1 SP? Been awhile. When was the last time Angels had Bulldog SP, period?  We get the crafty nibblers. Besides Ohtani. And he is very good but I don't consider him great yet. Sample size is too small.      

I think everyone agrees that guys in their late thirties typically are high risk.

But there are guys that perform well at that age.  Nobody on earth would be shocked in the least bit if Scherzer won 16 games with a 3.20 era next year.  That’s the point. (It doesn’t have to be Scherzer—they need to choose the right guy carefully based on how they project him and what it takes to sign them in $$ and contract length).

Yes he could implode (like any pitcher).  But I would rather have someone like Scherzer and have a fair chance that he is a bulldog that leads the staff than pass on him and cross my fingers that one of the younger guys emerges as a bulldog.

What you want is that shot that Scherzer does his normal thing AND some young guys level up.

That would be great.  And I want to target being great instead of “maybe we can get by with. . .”

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[Blarg]

Scherzer is not coming to the Angels. There is no win for him to mentor instead of take a contract with a sure bet for the playoffs. He will sign with the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox or even Yankees but he's not joining a team with one starter in Ohtani and four rookies. 

[Deek]

I don't want to see Chris Carpenter on the bump...

 

And the only positive I see to offering Kershaw is that both sides wouldn't have to worry about any exposure to October....

 

And I don't want any part of Heaney - any MLB pitcher that has to remind himself he belongs in the bigs, shouldn't be there...

 

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think plucking one guy from the Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies group, or even lesser guys like Michael Lorenzen (who I really like as a Swiss Army knife type), Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez are good buy-low options to consider too. 

In many ways, should they hold onto most of their internal guys and not make any big trades, I'd rather take it a little more conservatively, sign one of the bigger arms (but maybe not the biggest, instead someone like Stroman, Rodriguez), sign one of these lesser names, re-up Iglesias, sign another solid reliever and maybe add a versatile bat/shortstop and see how things go with a healthy club. 

This, plus one other thought:

Okay, he is a member of the Dogs, but..how much would Chris Taylor take for a 3 year deal?

Has played a solid amount of SS the past few years, and gets on base with good power and athleticism.

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think plucking one guy from the Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies group, or even lesser guys like Michael Lorenzen (who I really like as a Swiss Army knife type), Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez are good buy-low options to consider too. 

In many ways, should they hold onto most of their internal guys and not make any big trades, I'd rather take it a little more conservatively, sign one of the bigger arms (but maybe not the biggest, instead someone like Stroman, Rodriguez), sign one of these lesser names, re-up Iglesias, sign another solid reliever and maybe add a versatile bat/shortstop and see how things go with a healthy club. 

agreed on both accounts and with what AO commented on as far as taylor

my ideal offseason is still Taylor, Cobb or like, Gray, Villar, Iglesias, another pen arm (decent not crazy), some pen arm flyers,  more pen arm depth and Manny pina.  

the only trades I am making are from depth and if you add two starter I actually think we do have some depth in that area so maybe Barria or Suarez.  Plus I would consider moving Ward if for some reason there's a bit more value to him than one might think.  Like as a CFer for some rebuilding team (which he showed some aptitude for).  

There might be a way to get a little creative in trades with the Barria, Suarez, Thaiss, Ward, Regifo pool of players.   Those guys and their potential value are somewhat of a mystery to me.  While I mostly think they're likely not worth much, there is something to be said about them being major league ready and having some projection.  And the most I think you get out of that pool is some pen depth.  Maybe an SP who needs a bit of a rebound who's owed some money that might be a good bet.  

From the crew of starters you mentioned, I like Cobb ok and I'm wondering if they could fix Davies.  Lorenzen seems like a guy you sign to  modest pen deal for like 2 mil.  Getting a Cobb type and another that can be rotation fixtures next year would be huge.  More valuable than I think people realize.  Even if they aren't TOR.  Give the young guys a runway.  

[HanfordGuy]

Verlander unless he takes a significant pay cut and Kate agrees to join the Strike Force or host Angels Weekly.

[wopphil]

I actually think I’d kick the tires on a long-term deal for Syndergaard. Something like 3/50 guaranteed with the ability for him to earn a lot more with incentives. It would be highly risky, but if he returns to health you’d be getting a young ace on a potentially great deal. And if he had the potential of hitting free agency again in his early 30s, he could potentially have interest too. 

It will never happen, but it’s probably the type of high risk move the team needs to make (and have go right) for a realistic chance to compete. 

[totdprods]

13 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

This, plus one other thought:

Okay, he is a member of the Dogs, but..how much would Chris Taylor take for a 3 year deal?

Has played a solid amount of SS the past few years, and gets on base with good power and athleticism.

I'd like to think around the Cozart 3/$39m, but he's playing well enough in the postseason to get a good bit more than that. 

In my mind if you can get him for around 3 years and $10m-$15m AAV, you have to try just purely on the versatility he offers. 

[totdprods]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

agreed on both accounts and with what AO commented on as far as taylor

my ideal offseason is still Taylor, Cobb or like, Gray, Villar, Iglesias, another pen arm (decent not crazy), some pen arm flyers,  more pen arm depth and Manny pina.  

the only trades I am making are from depth and if you add two starter I actually think we do have some depth in that area so maybe Barria or Suarez.  Plus I would consider moving Ward if for some reason there's a bit more value to him than one might think.  Like as a CFer for some rebuilding team (which he showed some aptitude for).  

There might be a way to get a little creative in trades with the Barria, Suarez, Thaiss, Ward, Regifo pool of players.   Those guys and their potential value are somewhat of a mystery to me.  While I mostly think they're likely not worth much, there is something to be said about them being major league ready and having some projection.  And the most I think you get out of that pool is some pen depth.  Maybe an SP who needs a bit of a rebound who's owed some money that might be a good bet.  

From the crew of starters you mentioned, I like Cobb ok and I'm wondering if they could fix Davies.  Lorenzen seems like a guy you sign to  modest pen deal for like 2 mil.  Getting a Cobb type and another that can be rotation fixtures next year would be huge.  More valuable than I think people realize.  Even if they aren't TOR.  Give the young guys a runway.  

If you look at the Braves FO, they have for the most part stayed away from spending big, but not afraid of spending. They've done really well in free agency in recent years, and I hope Perry brings that with him. If the Angels can successfully start shopping in the mid-range of the free agent market, look the fuck out. 

We're thinking similarly in terms of ideal offseason...I think committing to a lot of mid-tier talent is the way to go, simply to maintain spending flexibility. Having the ability to extend Ohtani and lock up potentially Adell, Marsh, others like the Braves did with their young talent is a smart way to go - even if they have to wait until the new CBA - and the big $100m+ contract guys are going to make that very difficult. 

You alluded to it a bit, but we should run into a surplus of prospects sooner or later that almost forces some trades. We've drafted too many pitchers for there not to be a surplus in 2-3 years, and you can argue we have the OF/SS/5th SP surplus to deal from right now. 

I still think guys like Barria, Ward, Rengifo, Rojas, Thaiss, fringe guys like Stefanic, Soto, MacKinnon, Knowles, and even the recent crop of Tyler, Ortega, Pina, Yan, Wantz, Warren, Criswell, Marte, Peguero, Naughton, provide more than enough value and surplus to be turned into a couple useful MLBers. No one fancy. But a more budget-conscious team like Miami or Minnesota or Baltimore (especially with their love of acquiring our pitching) could take one or three of those names for guys like Caleb Thielbar, Dylan Floro, Garrett Cooper, Jorge Alfaro, Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, etc...guys starting to earn a mil or three in arb. Helps free up 40-man space for the Halos to be opportunistic on waiver wires and depthy adds for guys like Fowler, or fliers on rebound candidates like Aaron Sanchez. 

[totdprods]

28 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I actually think I’d kick the tires on a long-term deal for Syndergaard. Something like 3/50 guaranteed with the ability for him to earn a lot more with incentives. It would be highly risky, but if he returns to health you’d be getting a young ace on a potentially great deal. And if he had the potential of hitting free agency again in his early 30s, he could potentially have interest too. 

It will never happen, but it’s probably the type of high risk move the team needs to make (and have go right) for a realistic chance to compete. 

Syndergaard, Stroman, DeSclafani...I think all three were drafted by Toronto when Perry was there.

[Revad]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

agreed on both accounts and with what AO commented on as far as taylor

my ideal offseason is still Taylor, Cobb or like, Gray, Villar, Iglesias, another pen arm (decent not crazy), some pen arm flyers,  more pen arm depth and Manny pina.  

the only trades I am making are from depth and if you add two starter I actually think we do have some depth in that area so maybe Barria or Suarez.  Plus I would consider moving Ward if for some reason there's a bit more value to him than one might think.  Like as a CFer for some rebuilding team (which he showed some aptitude for).  

There might be a way to get a little creative in trades with the Barria, Suarez, Thaiss, Ward, Regifo pool of players.   Those guys and their potential value are somewhat of a mystery to me.  While I mostly think they're likely not worth much, there is something to be said about them being major league ready and having some projection.  And the most I think you get out of that pool is some pen depth.  Maybe an SP who needs a bit of a rebound who's owed some money that might be a good bet.  

From the crew of starters you mentioned, I like Cobb ok and I'm wondering if they could fix Davies.  Lorenzen seems like a guy you sign to  modest pen deal for like 2 mil.  Getting a Cobb type and another that can be rotation fixtures next year would be huge.  More valuable than I think people realize.  Even if they aren't TOR.  Give the young guys a runway.  

One way to think of it is how much is the budget for pitching and how much should go to SP and how much to the bullpen.  Where is the best deal.

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If you look at the Braves FO, they have for the most part stayed away from spending big, but not afraid of spending. They've done really well in free agency in recent years, and I hope Perry brings that with him. If the Angels can successfully start shopping in the mid-range of the free agent market, look the fuck out. 

We're thinking similarly in terms of ideal offseason...I think committing to a lot of mid-tier talent is the way to go, simply to maintain spending flexibility. Having the ability to extend Ohtani and lock up potentially Adell, Marsh, others like the Braves did with their young talent is a smart way to go - even if they have to wait until the new CBA - and the big $100m+ contract guys are going to make that very difficult. 

You alluded to it a bit, but we should run into a surplus of prospects sooner or later that almost forces some trades. We've drafted too many pitchers for there not to be a surplus in 2-3 years, and you can argue we have the OF/SS/5th SP surplus to deal from right now. 

I still think guys like Barria, Ward, Rengifo, Rojas, Thaiss, fringe guys like Stefanic, Soto, MacKinnon, Knowles, and even the recent crop of Tyler, Ortega, Pina, Yan, Wantz, Warren, Criswell, Marte, Peguero, Naughton, provide more than enough value and surplus to be turned into a couple useful MLBers. No one fancy. But a more budget-conscious team like Miami or Minnesota or Baltimore (especially with their love of acquiring our pitching) could take one or three of those names for guys like Caleb Thielbar, Dylan Floro, Garrett Cooper, Jorge Alfaro, Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, etc...guys starting to earn a mil or three in arb. Helps free up 40-man space for the Halos to be opportunistic on waiver wires and depthy adds for guys like Fowler, or fliers on rebound candidates like Aaron Sanchez. 

I can definitely see that.  We should start a thread ranking players we think shouldn’t or should be traded.  Just an idea but I’m not the best one to do that.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Revad

[Hubs]

22 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Angels need to sign one of the top 3-4 free agent starters, AND package a group of prospects to also land a controllable #2 type.

That is a viable plan.  The team has the money for the signing and the bodies to make the deal.

I suggest they make the trade first to help attract the premium free agent starter.

Can we just execute a plan that gets the team what it clearly needs?  Too much to ask?

I don't know how you think they get 4-5 new starters.

I'm thinking One big name, one solid name via trade or FA, and then two guys that can go rotation or pen, like Lorenzen and Richards.

Then other than Ohtani and Scherzer/Stroman, and the Solid nam like Cobb or Gray or Duffy, you put the other three spots up for competition.

[Revad]

38 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I don't know how you think they get 4-5 new starters.

I'm thinking One big name, one solid name via trade or FA, and then two guys that can go rotation or pen, like Lorenzen and Richards.

Then other than Ohtani and Scherzer/Stroman, and the Solid nam like Cobb or Gray or Duffy, you put the other three spots up for competition.

Good news is Eppler actually did good in some areas, the pitching he worked on really didn’t appear in time to save his job but he did well.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

I actually think I’d kick the tires on a long-term deal for Syndergaard. Something like 3/50 guaranteed with the ability for him to earn a lot more with incentives. It would be highly risky, but if he returns to health you’d be getting a young ace on a potentially great deal. And if he had the potential of hitting free agency again in his early 30s, he could potentially have interest too. 

It will never happen, but it’s probably the type of high risk move the team needs to make (and have go right) for a realistic chance to compete. 

Guessing that Syndergaard isn't going to take a mid range deal.  It's likely gonna be full pop retail or a 1yr to rebuild his value.  I would do a 1/18 for him in a heartbeat or something like that.  It would be great to tack on an option but I doubt he'd agree to that.  Then maybe you convince him to stay although he's from Texas.  I think this type of deal is what needs to happen until you know for sure what you're doing with Ohtani.  

[Hubs]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Guessing that Syndergaard isn't going to take a mid range deal.  It's likely gonna be full pop retail or a 1yr to rebuild his value.  I would do a 1/18 for him in a heartbeat or something like that.  It would be great to tack on an option but I doubt he'd agree to that.  Then maybe you convince him to stay although he's from Texas.  I think this type of deal is what needs to happen until you know for sure what you're doing with Ohtani.  

Ohtani is certainly going to make 35+ M a year if he repeats anything even close to what he did this year. But not until 2024. In 2022 he’s being paid 5.5 M. In 2023 he will get a substantial raise in his final year of arbitration. 

I’ve seen people think he’d break arbitration records but you can’t simply take the record for a pitcher (19.75 M to Price) and the record for an MVP hitter (27 to Betts) and add them together as well suggested in this article. As it was written by law students and not baseball fans… it’s definitely not clear on what Ohtani is.

https://www.conductdetrimental.com/post/shohei-ohtani-could-absolutely-destroy-mlb-arbitration-records

Yes he’s 75-80% of Betts and 67% of Price. Maybe a bit less than that as a DH. if his average improves and his HR power stays the same.

And he’s twice the injury risk. so I’d expect his third arbitration year to be around $30, not $50. And a multi-year deal starts there too. 

Coincidentally, Upton is not likely to be back in 23. He makes 28M. 

So Ohtani just takes that salary slot and the Angels still have three big money guys in 23. Assuming they don’t sign anyone else to a big contract.

23 will also be the 4th year of Rendon’s 7. In a major contract, perhaps Ohtani can get a significant raise after year 3. 
 

 

 

 

[totdprods]

On 10/20/2021 at 9:53 PM, Hubs said:

I’ve seen people think he’d break arbitration records but you can’t simply take the record for a pitcher (19.75 M to Price) and the record for an MVP hitter (27 to Betts) and add them together as well suggested in this article. As it was written by law students and not baseball fans… it’s definitely not clear on what Ohtani is.

lol...I didn't read the article. Is that literally what they did? jfc.

[Hubs]

On 10/19/2021 at 12:05 PM, totdprods said:

I think plucking one guy from the Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies group, or even lesser guys like Michael Lorenzen (who I really like as a Swiss Army knife type), Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez are good buy-low options to consider too. 

In many ways, should they hold onto most of their internal guys and not make any big trades, I'd rather take it a little more conservatively, sign one of the bigger arms (but maybe not the biggest, instead someone like Stroman, Rodriguez), sign one of these lesser names, re-up Iglesias, sign another solid reliever and maybe add a versatile bat/shortstop and see how things go with a healthy club. 

I skipped over this the other day but he's totally right. I can see signing two of the group mentioned depending on the price. Cueto would be a good pick. Would people be upset with Cueto, Lorenzen, Richards, and Scherzer on a short term deals?? Then resigning Iglesias and say getting Chris Taylor or another SS possibility?

I don't think they want to rely on the Rojas / Davis / Stefanic / Mayfield / Rengifo group as a starter.

They are almost certainly going to have to raise payroll, but by how much?

 

[tdawg87]

They could get Cobb and Gray for the same money as one of the top guys. 

I know I know, the Nolan Ryan thing. 

I want Scherzer, but I think he's getting $40 million over 3 years. That's absolutely nuts.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

They could get Cobb and Gray for the same money as one of the top guys. 

I know I know, the Nolan Ryan thing. 

I want Scherzer, but I think he's getting $40 million over 3 years. That's absolutely nuts.

You know what else is nuts?  After five years of ground hog day, trying to get by with “depth” again without top end pitching.

[tdawg87]

24 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You know what else is nuts?  After five years of ground hog day, trying to get by with “depth” again without top end pitching.

We can get the same if not more value out of 5-6 players. If we want TOR pitching we have no room to improve elsewhere.

I want Scherzer or Grossman or whatever, but I think it's unlikely to happen. 

We need a shortstop. We need Iglesias back. We need infield depth. 

We can get that if we're getting middle range starters. If we get Scherzer, we almost certainly aren't getting Iglesias and a shortstop.

[Torridd]

On 10/19/2021 at 5:49 PM, Dtwncbad said:

Angels need to sign one of the top 3-4 free agent starters, AND package a group of prospects to also land a controllable #2 type.

That is a viable plan.  The team has the money for the signing and the bodies to make the deal.

I suggest they make the trade first to help attract the premium free agent starter.

Can we just execute a plan that gets the team what it clearly needs?  Too much to ask?

Do you have someone in mind to trade who could get us that #2? Do you have that pitcher in mind?

[Torridd]

On 10/19/2021 at 3:05 PM, totdprods said:

I think plucking one guy from the Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies group, or even lesser guys like Michael Lorenzen (who I really like as a Swiss Army knife type), Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez are good buy-low options to consider too. 

In many ways, should they hold onto most of their internal guys and not make any big trades, I'd rather take it a little more conservatively, sign one of the bigger arms (but maybe not the biggest, instead someone like Stroman, Rodriguez), sign one of these lesser names, re-up Iglesias, sign another solid reliever and maybe add a versatile bat/shortstop and see how things go with a healthy club. 

Could the Angels afford a trio of Matz, Stroman, and R. Iglesias?

[Redondo]

On 10/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, Jason said:

This is a perfect example on why the Halos will never have the pitching success needed unless they can draft and develop their own top tier talent 

This

[Stradling]

On 10/20/2021 at 10:47 AM, wopphil said:

I actually think I’d kick the tires on a long-term deal for Syndergaard. Something like 3/50 guaranteed with the ability for him to earn a lot more with incentives. It would be highly risky, but if he returns to health you’d be getting a young ace on a potentially great deal. And if he had the potential of hitting free agency again in his early 30s, he could potentially have interest too. 

It will never happen, but it’s probably the type of high risk move the team needs to make (and have go right) for a realistic chance to compete. 

Maybe something like 3 years $50 million, with a 5 year team option for $30 million a season. So if he performs he’s getting 8 years and $200 million. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

On 10/18/2021 at 5:50 PM, jsnpritchett said:

I'm less concerned about a deal for Scherzer, Verlander, or even Kershaw, since those deals will probably be for much shorter periods of time, so they won't hamstring the Angels for years to come if they don't work out.

Verlander would be dead money at this point.