Justin Upton Over/Under Prediction Thread

[Stradling]

Games played, over or under 125?

I will say over, but barely.

Home Runs, over or under 28?

Over, I think he will hit around 32.

Batting average, over or under .245?

Under, he will hit right around .240.

OBP, over or under .335?

Over, he will be above .340

OPS, over or under .775?

Over, he will be above .800.

[Erstad Grit]

Over on games played. 

Under on rest, but not terribly under. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

Over on games played. 

Under on rest, but not terribly under. 

That's right where I am. 

[Stradling]

Last year he was awful, truly awful, for 18 games.  He still was on pace to hit 30 plus home runs if it was a season where he got 550 at bats.  

[PattyD22]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Games played, over or under 125?

I will say over, but barely.

Home Runs, over or under 28?

Over, I think he will hit around 32.

Batting average, over or under .245?

Under, he will hit right around .240.

OBP, over or under .335?

Over, he will be above .340

OPS, over or under .775?

Over, he will be above .800.

1.  Under

2.  Under

3.  Over

4.  Over

5.  Under

For the record, I only “really” know what the first 3 mean.  

[tdawg87]

Over.

[Revad]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Over.

I agree

[eligrba]

Over.

[Angels 1961]

Over on all J UP big year

[Second Base]

Games played - Under

 

First and foremost, he's going to be removed in the 7th or 8th inning most games. There's no confidence in his defensive ability. And unless the bat more than makes up for him being a negative asset in the field, he's going to be replaced as soon as either Marsh or Adell are fully ready. And he's in his mid-30's and injuries just be taken into account. I think he'll start 90 games. 

 

Home runs - Under

 

Deadened ball. Upton's HR's are off the backspin, last it over the wall variety, which he's one of the best I've ever seen at that I'm all honesty. But I think those are the types of HR hitters that date most affected by the new ball. I think he'll end up around 15-20 HR.

 

Batting Average - Over 

 

.245 is way below his career rate. I think he'll end up around .260

 

OBP - Tough call. Under

 

Just because I think it furthers the narrative that his performance won't be enough to hold off Marsh and Adell. 

 

OPS - Under

 

 

[ThisismineScios]

13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Games played - Under

 

First and foremost, he's going to be removed in the 7th or 8th inning most games. There's no confidence in his defensive ability. And unless the bat more than makes up for him being a negative asset in the field, he's going to be replaced as soon as either Marsh or Adell are fully ready. And he's in his mid-30's and injuries just be taken into account. I think he'll start 90 games. 

 

Home runs - Under

 

Deadened ball. Upton's HR's are off the backspin, last it over the wall variety, which he's one of the best I've ever seen at that I'm all honesty. But I think those are the types of HR hitters that date most affected by the new ball. I think he'll end up around 15-20 HR.

 

Batting Average - Over 

 

.245 is way below his career rate. I think he'll end up around .260

 

OBP - Tough call. Under

 

Just because I think it furthers the narrative that his performance won't be enough to hold off Marsh and Adell. 

 

OPS - Under

 

 

Slight disagree on the homers. His exit velo the last month was elite. Post swing fix. I know that doesn’t mean what you’re saying is untrue but I think recapturing what he had that last month will not cause the deadened ball to nullify him that badly.

And I think Marsh may not come up this year. He’s going to be great but has barely played in AA. He needs some more time. Plus...$$$. Upton is practically untradeable. They will utilize him as much as they can this year to avoid completely wasting him and Pujols this year. 

Agree completely on the defensive sub in the 8th-9th when protecting a lead. 

[BTH]

Games played, over or under 125? Over

Home Runs, over or under 28? Under

Batting average, over or under .245?

OBP, over or under .335? Under

OPS, over or under .775? Under

I think he plays like 130-135 games, 22-25 HR's, .330ish OBP and .750-760 OPS.

[T.G.]

Yes on most. No on the rest.

[wopphil]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Over on all J UP big year

Same. I am bullish on Upton.

[Revad]

5 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Yes on most. No on the rest.

Well said

[Taylor]

Times people forget he's an incredibly streaky hitter and turn on him after he has a bad week, over or under 6?

I say over.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

Slight disagree on the homers. His exit velo the last month was elite. Post swing fix. I know that doesn’t mean what you’re saying is untrue but I think recapturing what he had that last month will not cause the deadened ball to nullify him that badly.

And I think Marsh may not come up this year. He’s going to be great but has barely played in AA. He needs some more time. Plus...$$$. Upton is practically untradeable. They will utilize him as much as they can this year to avoid completely wasting him and Pujols this year. 

Agree completely on the defensive sub in the 8th-9th when protecting a lead. 

He had an exit velocity spike, but we have to understand context. Exit velocity isn't exclusive to HR's. Most power hitters have a style and shake to their round trippers. Ohtani HR's are typically in CF and they're majestic, towing shots. Trout's are no doubters as well, but more in the "it's out before the pitcher turns his head" mold. 

But guys like Upton and Rendon, they just lay it up over the wall, nice and smooth. Those are the types that will turn into outs, I believe. It doesn't mean they aren't capable of other HR's, those are just their most common. Rendon will be fine because he's just a pure hitter and OB machine. Upton, not as much. He'll still sting the ball when he's going good, I just think the doubles will go up a little, the HR's will go down a bit.

[Pancake Bear]

I think he's close to those numbers on all except games. Unless he's injured or legitimately declining severely (I'm gonna say negative on that one), he should be over 125 games. 

He's healthy for a change, but the numbers listed aren't much below his yearly averages. Still, at age 33, I think he's declining, just not to the degree he's replaced (like he looked like in most of 2020). So, I'll take the over on games and under (slightly) on everything else. 

I'll say around 140-145 games, .140 avg, .325 obp, 25-26 HR, and just under a .775 ops. 

[Bronson]

6 hours ago, PattyD22 said:

1.  Under

2.  Under

3.  Over

4.  Over

5.  Under

For the record, I only “really” know what the first 3 mean.  

You don’t know what “On Base Percentage” means?

[Revad]

28 minutes ago, Bronson said:

You don’t know what “On Base Percentage” means?

OBP is a false stat,  well ok it matters

[eligrba]

7 hours ago, Bronson said:

You don’t know what “On Base Percentage” means?

It's obviously a measure of how often a certain player on base when watching a game.  Duh.

[AngelStew43]

The Angels still owe him too much money for him not to play.  

Assuming he is healthy, I will go over across the board. 

.265/34/105/.340

Games played 147

[Angelsjunky]

113 games, .247/.328/.466, 23 HR.

So under on everything except slightly over on BA and OPS.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Assuming he stays healthy he will play because the Angels really don't have anyone else to throw out there right now.

I think these numbers are all pretty close... I'll take a very slight over on all of them.

[failos]

Under

Under

Under

Under

Under