2020 Offseason predictions.

[angelsnationtalk]

Disclaimer: It's still way to early but let's have some fun.

The Angels' payroll is currently around $185M for 2019 and when everything is said and done probably around $190M-$200M this season. Assuming that price, write down some dream/realistic predictions that you'd like to see happen for the Angels after the 2019 season. Try and keep it around $190M-$200M of actual payroll NOT AAV. (This is assuming we don't make the playoffs)

I'll start it off with an offensive/defensive 2020 roster.... Cuz we know Eppler loves defense and Arte loves offense. 

Before 2019 season ends...

1: Harvey and or Cahill and or Lucroy traded at the 2019 deadline for controllable pitchers like Buttrey/Sandoval or others...

2: Trade Cozart and or Calhoun before the 2019 deadline for prospects/salary relief. Possibly saves $26M.

2019 offseason....

3: Sign starting pitcher. 4yr/$52M. ($10M, $12M, $15M, $15M)

4: Ward moves to 1B to battle Thaiss for the spot for 2020.

5: Loser of the battle for 1B could be used in a packaged trade including Skaggs (or Heaney) and a lower tier prospect for a catcher. Realmuto (if he isn't traded and value drops) (Then gets contract extension that kicks in 2021)

6: Arenado signed to play 3B. $25M-$32M for 2020. (backloaded contract)

7: Trout/Simmons extensions.

8: Sign bullpen arm ($4M)

By trading Cozart, Calhoun, Skaggs and Ward or Thaiss it saves the Angels about $33M.

Adding Arenado, Realmuto, starting pitcher and a bullpen arm it adds around $51M for 2020

The different is $18M being added to the payroll.

Total payroll would be around $203M in actual payroll.

If Pujols retires after 2019, total payroll would be around $173M.

What's on your list??

 

 

 

[T.G.]

Bill Stoneman and Mike Scioscia return.

AW explodes and Chuck moves to Canada.

[Angelsfan1984]

They sign some guys who could be good because they made some adjustments or bad because 5 years out of 6 they were dog shit to 1 year deals, AW buttholes keep puckering up at the thought of mike trout leaving. 

All the players in the league are 1 year older

Someone comes to camp in the best shape of their life.

Pujols is recovering from another leg surgery.

We discuss 30 free agents that the angels have no intention of signing.

In N Out fries are still awful

 

[WeatherWonk]

Are we really at 185-190 mil right now, or is that a projection? I thought it was much less.

[angelsnationtalk]

17 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

Are we really at 185-190 mil right now, or is that a projection? I thought it was much less.

Actual payroll is about $183M right now. AAV is around $165M. Realistically, the Angels can spend another $41M without having to pay the 20% tax, but based on previous years they'd likely stay where they are.

[Docwaukee]

why would we trade 4 of our all-stars at the deadline when we have a 15 game lead in the division?  

[angelsnationtalk]

You lost me at all-stars hahahaa

I see what you did there

[UndertheHalo]

The Angels will be “finalists” for all of the FA. 

[totdprods]

That's an awfully rosy picture...Angels re-sign everyone they want, add Arenado, acquire Realmuto, and are able to flip every sizable contract save Pujols and NTC Upton for something of value?

[jsnpritchett]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That's an awfully rosy picture...Angels re-sign everyone they want, add Arenado, acquire Realmuto, and are able to flip every sizable contract save Pujols and NTC Upton for something of value?

[Jay]

Right when you think you've hit rock bottom... there's a thread with 2020 predictions.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

6 minutes ago, Jay said:

Right when you think you've hit rock bottom... there's a thread with 2020 predictions.

 

But then you realize that 2020 is likely the year things look brighter. Had to make something we can all look forward too.

[angelsnationtalk]

18 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That's an awfully rosy picture...Angels re-sign everyone they want, add Arenado, acquire Realmuto, and are able to flip every sizable contract save Pujols and NTC Upton for something of value?

Arenado and Realmuto are definitely possible..... Pujols is a maybe..... Upton not yet

[Hubs]

2019 is around 164M. That's the AAV payroll including benefits, and also the current cash payroll, not including benefits.

2020 right now is around 112.750

1. Ward, fresh off his surprising rookie of the year, campaign negates the need for Arenado.

2. Harvey inks an extension for 3/51. (+17M)

3. Skaggs, Marsh, and JC Ramirez are shipped to the Padres for Austin Hedges and Kirby Yates. (+4M).

3. Calhoun's option is declined, paving the way for Adell, who had a strong September and Playoffs, to take the right field job permanently.

4. Gerrit Cole is signed for 6/150. (+25M) Rotation is Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Harvey, Barria, Canning.

5. Pujols Retires, but we don't save any money, because all contracts are guaranteed in MLB. He agrees to defer half of his 2020 and 2021 salaries to 2022 and 2023.

6. Simmons is extended for 4 additional years at 18M per year AAV.

7. Trout inks an extension for 10 additional years at 40M per year AAV.

 

[floplag]

i think ill wait till this hot stove has gone cold before starting arguments over the next one

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

i think ill wait till this hot stove has gone cold before starting arguments over the next one

This hot stove has been cold for weeks. 

[Second Base]

If I were to treat it realistically, or what I believe will happen.....

Catcher: Jon Lucroy will do a fantastic job guiding the Angels rotation and have a bit of a bounceback season at the plate.  Nothing elite with the bat but solid work.  The Angels will sign him to a two year extension. 

First Base: Albert Pujols' final season as a player will be 2019.  Once May or June rolls around and he realizes that Bour will have passed him on the depth chart and his lower half isn't responding as quickly as he'd hoped, he'll make it his farewell tour and the Angels will make sure to honor the rest of his contract with more of a front office position.  Bour's contract will expire, but Matt Thaiss will be the heir at the position.  However, he will have some competition from Jared Walsh and Taylor Ward.  No free agents signed. 

Second Base:  The season will start with David Fletcher at 2B, and while he's brilliant with the glove and makes contact, his lack of extra base pop and on-base ability won't make him the unquestioned option there.  Zack Cozart willl also get plenty of reps over at 2B, but he's going to be unproductive and hurt.  Luis Rengifo will eventually get a promotion and do moderately well in his time.  But the biggest difference will actually come in AA and AAA where Jahmai Jones improves by leaps and bounds, both at the plate and in the field.  In 2020, we'll enter Spring Training with an open competition for starting 2B between Fletcher, Rengifo and Jones, and I believe Jones will win it. 

Shortstop: After next season, Andrelton Simmons will sign a 5 year extension to stay with the Angels through age 35. 

Third Base: Cozart will be unproductive and get hurt, which will lead to his eventual release.  Taylor Ward will have the power and OBP for the position, but his bat will be too inconsistent to guarantee him the starting spot next year.  And while there are many high priced 3B options available, money will be tight after a string of important and lucrative extensions.  

Left Field: Justin Upton will be exactly who he's been for over 5 years now. 

Center Field: Mike Trout will sign an extension after the 2019 season.  10 years, 400 million. 

Right Field: Kole Calhoun will do moderately well in 2019, but prove to be extremely inconsistent as has become the norm.  Michael Hermosillo will improve by leaps and bounds in AAA and by the end of the year, will actually begin platooning with Calhoun.  Adell will have a slot start in AA but will figure it out around June or July and go on an absolute tear to end the season, which will result in a AAA promotion, where he'll subsequently rip apart the PCL as well.  Entering 2020, the Angels will actually open the season with Michael Hermosillo as the starting RF, at least until the calendar turns to May, upon which time Jo Adell will be promoted and go on to win Rookie of the Year.  Brandon Marsh will actually finish the season and perform VERY well in AA, and it will sort of force the Angels into making alternate plans for 2021 and beyond, which will likely result in Justin Upton moving into a starting role at 1B/DH and 4th OF, this works because both Marsh and Adell can handle CF if Trout needs rest. 

DH: Shohei Ohtani will be handling more at bats than he did splitting time before.  Basically, he'll only not hit the day of pitching, and typically the day after.  The Angels won't bother signing an additional DH because guys like Walsh, Ward, Fletcher, Rengifo and Ward will all be looking for at bats. 

Starting Pitching: Skaggs will have a career year and will ink an extension to stay in So Cal.  Andrew Heaney will also have a solid year and will be working toward his own extension as well.  Matt Harvey will be better than he has been in a few years, but it will still only result in a 4.00 ERA, and he will be traded at the trade deadline and work brilliantly in relief whcih will actually result in a nice payday next offseason for him and his promoter/agent Scott Boras.  Trevor Cahill will have a fantastic year and will get a three year extension from the Angels. Jaime Barria will struggle with keeping the ball int he park and will eventually be replaced by Jose Suarez in June.  Canning will be making intermittent starts throughout the year, but after Harvey is dealt at the deadline, he'll be in the rotation for good.  Pat Sandoval will do a solid job in the rotation in AA/AAA and Aaron Hernandez will finish the year in AA, making him a potential rotation piece as well.  But with such a strong free agent class in pitching, the Angels will wait it out and land Hyun-Jin Ryu with only a three year commitment.  With Shohei Ohtani returning to the rotation, the Angels will turn back to a 6-man rotation with Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Ryu, Canning, and Cahill with Suarez, Sandoval and Hernandez all working 

So overall, the Angels will sign extension to Trout, Simmons, Skaggs, Lucroy, Cahill and signing Ryu to a free agent contract.  That's where all their money will go. 

[angelsnationtalk]

15 minutes ago, floplag said:

i think ill wait till this hot stove has gone cold before starting arguments over the next one

Or you could not start an argument and just say what you think about the next offseason and write what you'd like to see.

[Lou]

celebrate our World Series championship 

[totdprods]

2019:
The Angels sign Mike Moustakas 2/yr $18m, a vet RP for 1/$4m, and a couple ST invites to the staff to round out the offseason. 
In ST, following Machado's 8/$240m and Harper's 10/$325m signings, the Angels announce a 9-yr, $360m extension for Trout, with opt-outs following'21 & '23.
Harvey bounces back but misses July to injury, Cahill is DLed often, Lucroy is okay, Bour is not. 
Skaggs and Heaney are healthy, but not aces. Barria struggles. The bullpen is solid. Canning has TJS. 
Adell kicks ass covering for Calhoun who pulls a hammy, but goes back to AAA midseason.
The offense is okay, but the staff continues to struggle, and the Angels are 10 back in July.
Neck and neck with Washington, Atlanta goes all in, acquiring Simmons and Skaggs at the deadline for Toussaint, Riley, and Kyle Muller. It's the Angels only deadline deal.
Cozart moves to SS, Fletcher takes over at 2B, Rengifo becomes the UT IF.
Harvey, Heaney, Cahill, Toussaint, and Suarez round out the Angels rotation.
The Angels rally back in Aug./Sept. and win 86, but fall short of the WC.

2020:
Harvey and Lucroy re-sign for similar deals, Cahill and Calhoun are let go.
Pujols announces he is retiring...after the 2020 season.
The Angels sign Alex Wood and Marsh, Suarez, and Deveaux are dealt for Michael Fulmer.
Ohtani, Heaney, Fulmer, Harvey, Wood make up the rotation, with Toussaint, Muller, Sandoval, and Barria slotted for AAA.
Moustakas, Cozart, Fletcher, and Thaiss make up the projected IF, with Riley, Rengifo, Jones, and Ward lined up behind them in AAA.
Upton, Trout, and Adell are the projected OF, with a decent 2019 earning Hermosillo the 4th. 
The Angels win 93 and take the WC, lose ALCS to Boston (who loses Betts to the Phillies via FA in the offseason).
Harvey, Lucroy, Cozart, Moustakas all walk in the offseason. Pujols retires. Angels sign deGrom and Zunino.

They go into 2021 with deGrom, Ohtani, Fulmer, Heaney, Toussaint as a fantastic top 5 with Muller, Barria, and Canning as depth. 
Riley takes over 3B, Fletcher at SS, Jones at 2B, Ward/Thaiss at 1B, Zunino at catcher.
Upton, Trout, Adell in the OF, Hermosillo backing up.

Edited January 8, 2019 by totdprods

[floplag]

27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This hot stove has been cold for weeks. 

Fair point actually, lol 

[floplag]

25 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Or you could not start an argument and just say what you think about the next offseason and write what you'd like to see.

i guess i still feel like we could do more this off season to start thinking about next.  Some part of me maybe hasnt given up yet i dont know, lol 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

2019 is around 164M. That's the AAV payroll including benefits, and also the current cash payroll, not including benefits.

2020 right now is around 112.750

1. Ward, fresh off his surprising rookie of the year, campaign negates the need for Arenado.

2. Harvey inks an extension for 3/51. (+17M)

3. Skaggs, Marsh, and JC Ramirez are shipped to the Padres for Austin Hedges and Kirby Yates. (+4M).

3. Calhoun's option is declined, paving the way for Adell, who had a strong September and Playoffs, to take the right field job permanently.

4. Gerrit Cole is signed for 6/150. (+25M) Rotation is Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Harvey, Barria, Canning.

5. Pujols Retires, but we don't save any money, because all contracts are guaranteed in MLB. He agrees to defer half of his 2020 and 2021 salaries to 2022 and 2023.

6. Simmons is extended for 4 additional years at 18M per year AAV.

7. Trout inks an extension for 10 additional years at 40M per year AAV.

 

Yes, you're right, but I'm looking at actual payroll which is around $185 currently. Which includes Arb and 0-3's.

I like the Gerrit Cole addition. And you're right, hopefully Ward can prove he can play 3B. However, it's looking more like an option to move to 1B. Unless you want to move Fletcher to 3B. Good defensively and arm could work. 

I do believe if Pujols retires on his own then the money is off the books. 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

If I were to treat it realistically, or what I believe will happen.....

Catcher: Jon Lucroy will do a fantastic job guiding the Angels rotation and have a bit of a bounceback season at the plate.  Nothing elite with the bat but solid work.  The Angels will sign him to a two year extension. 

First Base: Albert Pujols' final season as a player will be 2019.  Once May or June rolls around and he realizes that Bour will have passed him on the depth chart and his lower half isn't responding as quickly as he'd hoped, he'll make it his farewell tour and the Angels will make sure to honor the rest of his contract with more of a front office position.  Bour's contract will expire, but Matt Thaiss will be the heir at the position.  However, he will have some competition from Jared Walsh and Taylor Ward.  No free agents signed. 

Second Base:  The season will start with David Fletcher at 2B, and while he's brilliant with the glove and makes contact, his lack of extra base pop and on-base ability won't make him the unquestioned option there.  Zack Cozart willl also get plenty of reps over at 2B, but he's going to be unproductive and hurt.  Luis Rengifo will eventually get a promotion and do moderately well in his time.  But the biggest difference will actually come in AA and AAA where Jahmai Jones improves by leaps and bounds, both at the plate and in the field.  In 2020, we'll enter Spring Training with an open competition for starting 2B between Fletcher, Rengifo and Jones, and I believe Jones will win it. 

Shortstop: After next season, Andrelton Simmons will sign a 5 year extension to stay with the Angels through age 35. 

Third Base: Cozart will be unproductive and get hurt, which will lead to his eventual release.  Taylor Ward will have the power and OBP for the position, but his bat will be too inconsistent to guarantee him the starting spot next year.  And while there are many high priced 3B options available, money will be tight after a string of important and lucrative extensions.  

Left Field: Justin Upton will be exactly who he's been for over 5 years now. 

Center Field: Mike Trout will sign an extension after the 2019 season.  10 years, 400 million. 

Right Field: Kole Calhoun will do moderately well in 2019, but prove to be extremely inconsistent as has become the norm.  Michael Hermosillo will improve by leaps and bounds in AAA and by the end of the year, will actually begin platooning with Calhoun.  Adell will have a slot start in AA but will figure it out around June or July and go on an absolute tear to end the season, which will result in a AAA promotion, where he'll subsequently rip apart the PCL as well.  Entering 2020, the Angels will actually open the season with Michael Hermosillo as the starting RF, at least until the calendar turns to May, upon which time Jo Adell will be promoted and go on to win Rookie of the Year.  Brandon Marsh will actually finish the season and perform VERY well in AA, and it will sort of force the Angels into making alternate plans for 2021 and beyond, which will likely result in Justin Upton moving into a starting role at 1B/DH and 4th OF, this works because both Marsh and Adell can handle CF if Trout needs rest. 

DH: Shohei Ohtani will be handling more at bats than he did splitting time before.  Basically, he'll only not hit the day of pitching, and typically the day after.  The Angels won't bother signing an additional DH because guys like Walsh, Ward, Fletcher, Rengifo and Ward will all be looking for at bats. 

Starting Pitching: Skaggs will have a career year and will ink an extension to stay in So Cal.  Andrew Heaney will also have a solid year and will be working toward his own extension as well.  Matt Harvey will be better than he has been in a few years, but it will still only result in a 4.00 ERA, and he will be traded at the trade deadline and work brilliantly in relief whcih will actually result in a nice payday next offseason for him and his promoter/agent Scott Boras.  Trevor Cahill will have a fantastic year and will get a three year extension from the Angels. Jaime Barria will struggle with keeping the ball int he park and will eventually be replaced by Jose Suarez in June.  Canning will be making intermittent starts throughout the year, but after Harvey is dealt at the deadline, he'll be in the rotation for good.  Pat Sandoval will do a solid job in the rotation in AA/AAA and Aaron Hernandez will finish the year in AA, making him a potential rotation piece as well.  But with such a strong free agent class in pitching, the Angels will wait it out and land Hyun-Jin Ryu with only a three year commitment.  With Shohei Ohtani returning to the rotation, the Angels will turn back to a 6-man rotation with Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Ryu, Canning, and Cahill with Suarez, Sandoval and Hernandez all working 

So overall, the Angels will sign extension to Trout, Simmons, Skaggs, Lucroy, Cahill and signing Ryu to a free agent contract.  That's where all their money will go. 

Really like the move of Upton going to 1B/DH at some point. That's why for some time I though adding Harper and moving Adell to LF would have worked but that's too much $. 

My one thing I'd mention is at some point we will have a log jam in the infield. If Ward remains at 3B or competes at 1B with Thaiss then we still have Fletcher, Rengifo, and Jones for 3B/2B. Someone would have to be moved. Specially if Hermosillo and Marsh will be competing in the OF to push Upton to 1B. That also pushes the time against Thaiss. 

Would you be open to pairing Skaggs or Heaney with one of them (Fletcher, Regifo, Hermosillo, etc.) and a lower end prospect to flip for a starting catcher? Lucroy is, at best, a backup by then.

[UndertheHalo]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

This hot stove has been cold for weeks. 

I think at best it maybe got luke warm.  Like, a week before Christmas. 

Edited January 8, 2019 by UndertheHalo