The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah, he's got about the same amount of pop (10-13 HR, but tons of doubles/triples due to his compact swing that packs a punch), same with the on base ability. I think where Rengifo has Hernandez is his overall speed and ability to steal a bag. Something Hernandez isn't the best at. The most SB Hernandez has had in a full season is 19, 3 years ago. Back in 2013 he stole 33 bags in the minors. Rengifo has 36 with over a month and a half to play still. He had 34 last season, so it's not a fluke. 

I'm not sure Luis has that much over-the-fence power - seems to me like he's really focused putting the ball in play more and that's driving the big increase in BA and the big decrease in strikeouts, and he's probably losing a bit of raw pop in the process. Sort of like what we're seeing with Andrelton this year. If it means we see him continue to match or exceed his strikeout totals with walks and become a doubles machine, I'm fine with it meaning he only pops a handful out a season. If his speed translates to 20-30 SB a year, that's like getting an extra base right there as well.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Probably a best case scenario. 

Maicer seems like a likelier outcome - averaged .279/.342/.387/.729, OPS+ of 97 as an Angel, Luis perhaps a touch less power and a bit more speed. 
Something like 25-30 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 20-25 steals, and a nearly even BB:K ratio around 50-60. 

Curious to think about what the 'three true outcome' phenomenon does with players like Rengifo - players with his profile are a little rare these days.
 

I remember A-Rod saying something to the effect that three true outcomes wins games over a season but doesn't win short series and playoffs. He suggested that we'll see a comeback of contact and speed type players.

Anyhow, I think Maicer is more of Rengifo's floor. Maicer didn't really blossom in the minors until 2004 at age 23, while Rengifo is blossoming at age 21 at A+/AA/AAA. This would imply greater upside for Rengifo.

[GrittyVeterans]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Probably a best case scenario. 

Maicer seems like a likelier outcome - averaged .279/.342/.387/.729, OPS+ of 97 as an Angel, Luis perhaps a touch less power and a bit more speed. 
Something like 25-30 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 20-25 steals, and a nearly even BB:K ratio around 50-60. 

Curious to think about what the 'three true outcome' phenomenon does with players like Rengifo - players with his profile are a little rare these days.
 

Usually I think people here are way over the top optimistic when it comes to Angels prospects, but I actually think this is selling the guy short. He's done well enough in the high minors at a young enough age to have more upside than that in my mind.

He's going to be an MLB regular sometime in his age 22 season it looks like, that is very good.

[UndertheHalo]

Rengifo has been great.  It sure would be nice if the Angels got a steal there.  And by steal I don’t mean a border line starter like Macier Izturis.  I mean an actual above average everyday player.  

Edited July 17, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I remember A-Rod saying something to the effect that three true outcomes wins games over a season but doesn't win short series and playoffs. He suggested that we'll see a comeback of contact and speed type players.

Anyhow, I think Maicer is more of Rengifo's floor. Maicer didn't really blossom in the minors until 2004 at age 23, while Rengifo is blossoming at age 21 at A+/AA/AAA. This would imply greater upside for Rengifo.

I'd agree that it's his roughly his floor - just meant more that it was his likelier outcome. Definitely seems to have more raw tools than Maicer. 

Cesar and Rengifo are listed at nearly the exact same height weight, 5'10", 160. 

Cesar's age 21 was at A+: .268/.306/.333/.639 with 15 XBH, 23-33 in SB attempts, and 23 walks to 80 strikeouts. 
Cesar 'broke out' at 22 between AA/AAA: .291/.329/.404/.733 with 44 XBH, 21-36 in SB attempts, and 31 walks to 87 strikeouts. 
He continued the next season at 23, also AA/AAA: .314/.378/.406/.785 with 24 XBH, 33-41 in SB attempts, and 42 walks to 82 strikeouts. 

Luis is at .317/.424/.473/.897 with 35 XBH, 36-46 in SB attempts, and 53 walks to 45 strikeouts. 
Last season, .250/.316/.397/.713 with 44 XBH, 34-51 in SB attempts, and 41 walks to 97 strikeouts.

Luis is playing well above anything Cesar did in the minors, but Cesar also had a little higher floor throughout. 

Either way, I hope they add him and get him some ABs in September.
 

[Chuck]

22 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I'm not sure Luis has that much over-the-fence power - seems to me like he's really focused putting the ball in play more and that's driving the big increase in BA and the big decrease in strikeouts, and he's probably losing a bit of raw pop in the process. Sort of like what we're seeing with Andrelton this year. If it means we see him continue to match or exceed his strikeout totals with walks and become a doubles machine, I'm fine with it meaning he only pops a handful out a season. If his speed translates to 20-30 SB a year, that's like getting an extra base right there as well.

Well he did smack 11 HR in 2016 and 12 in 2017, but yeah I'd rather him focus on getting on base and creating havoc on the base paths than trying to hit HR's. It's just good that he's not a slappy middle infielder type. 

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not worried about Canning: he still projects as a #2 or very good #3.

A few questions about this ... I see this a lot, where a stud minor league pitcher is projected to be a #2 or #3. How often are minor leaguers projected to be #1s (or "aces")? Is there something about a pitcher's stuff that makes a scout think, "He'll pitch pretty well, but occasionally get blown out, so he won't be an ace" versus, "This guy's stuff is legendary and he'll be a #1 fo sho."

Was Ohtani projected to be a #1? 

Lastly, what are the descriptions of a #1 vs. a #2 vs. a #3 vs. a "very good" #3? Is it based on stats? (i.e., a #1 pitcher has an ERA lower than 3.00 and a K/9 of 9 or above).

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Probably a best case scenario. 

Maicer seems like a likelier outcome - averaged .279/.342/.387/.729, OPS+ of 97 as an Angel, Luis perhaps a touch less power and a bit more speed. 
Something like 25-30 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 20-25 steals, and a nearly even BB:K ratio around 50-60. 

Curious to think about what the 'three true outcome' phenomenon does with players like Rengifo - players with his profile are a little rare these days.
 

Not going to lie. I'm not excited about Rengifo if he's just going to be Maicer Izturis without the eyebrows.

[Blarg]

On 7/13/2018 at 9:32 AM, Dochalo said:

Ward is hitting .366 overall between AA/AAA.  If you don't include foreign leagues (like MEX and DSL), he's 2nd to Vlad jr among those qualified.    

Yeah but Valbuena is going to have a great second half. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Not going to lie. I'm not excited about Rengifo if he's just going to be Maicer Izturis without the eyebrows.

If Maicer hadn’t been made of glass he would have been a solidly above average starter. If he had been able to play everyday he could have been 3-4 WAR each season. 

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I'm not sure Luis has that much over-the-fence power - seems to me like he's really focused putting the ball in play more and that's driving the big increase in BA and the big decrease in strikeouts, and he's probably losing a bit of raw pop in the process. Sort of like what we're seeing with Andrelton this year. If it means we see him continue to match or exceed his strikeout totals with walks and become a doubles machine, I'm fine with it meaning he only pops a handful out a season. If his speed translates to 20-30 SB a year, that's like getting an extra base right there as well.

Also remember, the most HR Cesar Hernandez hit in the minors was 4 over a full season of at bats. 

I don't really like the Maicer Izturis comp, I think he's a good mix between Chone Figgins & Cesar Hernandez,  but either way a good table setter. 

[Docwaukee]

I've watched a fair amount of Luis Rengifo this year.  He's a big time disruptor.  I feel like his speed is playing up big time this year from what we were told it was supposed to be.  He's been a dynamic player and is probably second to only Adell in that regard for our system.  

Still think Luis Castillo is his best comp.  

 

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I've watched a fair amount of Luis Rengifo this year.  He's a big time disruptor.  I feel like his speed is playing up big time this year from what we were told it was supposed to be.  He's been a dynamic player and is probably second to only Adell in that regard for our system.  

Still think Luis Castillo is his best comp.  

I think that's a great comparison. Totally forgot about him. 

[Taylor]

I like how all the comps for Rengifo are other Latino dudes.

[Second Base]

Rengifo is more of a physical presence than Maicer Izturis was.  Izzy had more mobility in the field and was just a better defensive option all around than Rengifo is, but Rengifo makes harder contact and is considerably more aggressive on the bases than Izzy was. 

The best current player that I can compare him to is probably Jose Peraza. 

Cesar Hernandez isn't enough of a distraction on the base paths.  Rengifo is a bit of a pest when he gets on base. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

A few questions about this ... I see this a lot, where a stud minor league pitcher is projected to be a #2 or #3. How often are minor leaguers projected to be #1s (or "aces")? Is there something about a pitcher's stuff that makes a scout think, "He'll pitch pretty well, but occasionally get blown out, so he won't be an ace" versus, "This guy's stuff is legendary and he'll be a #1 fo sho."

Was Ohtani projected to be a #1? 

Lastly, what are the descriptions of a #1 vs. a #2 vs. a #3 vs. a "very good" #3? Is it based on stats? (i.e., a #1 pitcher has an ERA lower than 3.00 and a K/9 of 9 or above).

Stuff is definitely part of it. Sometimes pitchers are considered "pitchability" types (Suarez, Barria) or upside/stuff types (Soriano, C Rodriguez). The former get by on guile and the craft of pitching and tend to have lower ceilings but higher floors, while the latter have great stuff but also lower floors.

Before this year Canning was considered more in the pitchability category but I think his stuff has improved and he's somewhere in-between, although more towards pitchability. 

The very best pitching prospects--the guys that are considered "#1 for sho" are usually advanced upside types -- that is, very young guys with great stuff who are succeeding in the high minors (AA/AAA). But they are very rare, indeed.

And yes, Ohtani was (and is) considered a future #1, at least as his upside.

As for descriptions of #1, 2, etc. I'd say something like this:

#1 starter: Sub-3.00 ERA, possible Cy Young candidate

#2 starter: ERA in low 3.00s, very good pitcher

#3 starter: ERA in mid to upper 3.00s, good pitcher

#4 starter: ERA around league average, something like 4.00-4.50

#5 starter: Filler, below league average >4.50 ERA

In terms of Angels pitching prospects, I'd say their ceiling/floors are:

Canning: #2/3

Suarez: #3/4 (like Barria)

L Pena: #3/5

Gatto: #4/5

Castillo: #4/5

Some say that Soriano and C Rodriguez have true #1 potential but I'd like to see more before hazarding a guess. But those two could be #1s or they could flameout before reaching AA. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

A few questions about this ... I see this a lot, where a stud minor league pitcher is projected to be a #2 or #3. How often are minor leaguers projected to be #1s (or "aces")? Is there something about a pitcher's stuff that makes a scout think, "He'll pitch pretty well, but occasionally get blown out, so he won't be an ace" versus, "This guy's stuff is legendary and he'll be a #1 fo sho."

Was Ohtani projected to be a #1? 

Lastly, what are the descriptions of a #1 vs. a #2 vs. a #3 vs. a "very good" #3? Is it based on stats? (i.e., a #1 pitcher has an ERA lower than 3.00 and a K/9 of 9 or above).

The numbers thing is more of a recent thing as more and more people got interested in tracking minor leaguers.    Going back to the early 90s, it was really uncommon to hear people attach ERA figures to projection -- it was always inning workloads and dominance.   True 1s were seen as guy who could grow into 220-240 IP horses.  2s were viewed as guys in the 200-220 range with the potential to dominate games.  Threes were viewed as league average or better guys who could get you to 180 innings.   A four was thought to be capable of 180 below league average innings, and fives were viewed as rotation filler -- swing man types.     

Go back to 2014, when everyone and their brother started to really tinker with shortening pitcher starts -- the AL had five guys who reached 220+ innings, (Scherzer, Price, Felix, Kluber and Shields) and two guys that just missed at 219 innings -- Lester and Sonny Gray.     There were only 19 guys who managed even 200 IP .   These days the numbers likely have more to do with the quality of those innings than a pitcher's ability to own the game.   My guess is a solid three someone capable of putting up a league average ERA -- that may seem a bit underwhelming but consider this.   That same 2014 season was one of the more pitching dominant seasons in recent memory with the league average AL SP ERA coming in at 3.81...   Know how many qualifying SPs posted ERA's of 3.81 or better? -- 28.   Of those 28, only 20 managed as many as 180 innings.   So, a guy grading out as a #3 really isn't as shitty as you might be led to believe by a lot of prospect sites.  The reality is that most SPs in MLB fall short of what was the traditional # 3 profile.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

I like how all the comps for Rengifo are other Latino dudes.

How many relevant switch-hitting 5'10" white dudes middle-infielders with plus speed and good plate discipline are there currently?

[rafibomb]

another multi-hit game for Rengifo

[Docwaukee]

Ward didn't play tonight.  Is he on his way to Anaheim?  

[Docwaukee]

Thaiss 3/3, bb, 2 sb.  

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Ward didn't play tonight.  Is he on his way to Anaheim?  

Yes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but not for the reason you think. There's a former catchers convention.

[Angelsfan1984]

Angels released OF Rymer Liriano.

Liriano presumably exercised an opt-out in his minor league deal with the Halos. The 27-year-old outfielder had an .866 OPS with 16 home runs, 68 RBI, and six stolen bases in 65 games this season at Triple-A Salt Lake. He should find a new organization rather quickly.

 

Seemed like a decent piece to include in a trade...oh well

[totdprods]

23 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Angels released OF Rymer Liriano.

Liriano presumably exercised an opt-out in his minor league deal with the Halos. The 27-year-old outfielder had an .866 OPS with 16 home runs, 68 RBI, and six stolen bases in 65 games this season at Triple-A Salt Lake. He should find a new organization rather quickly.

 

Seemed like a decent piece to include in a trade...oh well

Cesar Puello 2.0

[Tank]

18 hours ago, Blarg said:

Yeah but Valbuena is going to have a great second half. 

the ball was coming off of his bat well...