Odorizzi Tied to Angels: Marc Topkin (Beat Writer for Rays)

[Vlad27Trout27]

Eppler has been mostly quite,  when he makes a move so this news poping up, may mean that Billy's up to something... he is the silent assassin..... I'm thing of 2 possibilities.

1. Teams that missed out of darvish, he could be trying to up the price by including the angels as a suiter.

2. Similary keep the focus on odorizzi but, get the rays to budge on Archer, and before you guys tell me there are teams with better prospect to offer to the Rays, he did get us Simmons with a ranked 30 system.

[GrittyVeterans]

I trust Eppler's talent evaluation

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'd only consider trading from our top 7 if it meant getting a starter that has top of the rotation potential and at least 3 but hopefully 4 years of control.  I would not include Archer in that description.  They are gonna miss their window to get top talent for him as it seems they are valuing him higher than teams are willing to pay.  

But I can't really think of a starter that would be available to fit that description right now outside of Michael Fulmer, and he's coming off surgery.  He also doesn't miss bats the way I'd like for a top of the rotation guy.  He probably settles out as a #2/3.  Sure, I'd love to grab Stroman, or Nola but we all know those guys aren't going anywhere without a kings ransom.  Danny Duffy is an interesting guy to consider.  But he's more of a #2/3 as well.  

So if we're going to make a move for Odorizzi, I agree on not giving up any of our top guys.  I wonder if adding Cron and his 3 years of control to a deal would lighten the prospect load?  

 

I think what Eppler is doing in relation to the farm is essentially trading the guys that don't fit his vision for the team, or guys that have higher value at present but not long term, while also keeping the guys that he doesn't necessarily buy into but is willing to wait until their value is up before trading.  Example of this would be Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis.  Both had high value at the time, and really didn't fit what his vision for the style of ball club he wanted to create.  He flipped them for Simmons, who he was buying low because teams just weren't putting as big of an emphasis on run prevention yet.  Plus Simmons was still young and hadn't reached his offensive prime.  So he sold high and bought Simmons low. 

So the players that I could envision him trading that are holdovers from the Dipoto drafts would include Jahmai Jones, Jamie Barria, Michael Hermosillo and David Fletcher.  But Hermosillo and Barria specifically fit what Eppler's looking for and he's been very open about Jahmai Jones' current value being significantly higher than others believe.  

The only guys off the current roster than I think he'd be open to trading because they don't fit what he's looking for exactly are Skaggs, Tropeano and Cron.  But all three of them would need to have trade value before doing that.

Or he might want to trade them before their value falls flat like he did with Hector Santiago. 

[ettin]

15 hours ago, SoWhat said:

Here's an interesting little tidbit on how Odorizzi might be able to turn a corner and possibly become a top of the rotation arm.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/265432782-3-starters-who-could-turn-into-aces-in-2018.amp.html

I searched for this last night when I posted the thread but for the life of me couldn't find it, so thanks for finding it and posting it. There are things to potentially like about Odorizzi and maybe the Angels think they can unlock the secret to his performing better.

[oater]

Notwithstanding the MLBTR spin, I don't sense that anything is happening re Odorizzi.  The TB article is about plans for the new baseball stadium and in an aside states that the Rays "have been talking about dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi with a number of teams, said to include the Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Angels and possibly Orioles."  In today's OCR, Jeff Fletcher quotes Eppler:' “We feel very good about the club we have right now,” Eppler said. “We feel prepared to head into the season. If there are additions along the way, we’re obviously open minded to it, but we feel good with our club.”'

Presuming that the expected starters are healthy (at least to start the season), adding Odorizzi will likely force Heaney or Skaggs to the minors and will create an even bigger roster crunch in 2019.  I personally am not in favor of that course of action--especially if it means trading a top minors prospect like Jones.

 

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, oater said:

Notwithstanding the MLBTR spin, I don't sense that anything is happening re Odorizzi.  The TB article is about plans for the new baseball stadium and in an aside states that the Rays "have been talking about dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi with a number of teams, said to include the Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Angels and possibly Orioles."  In today's OCR, Jeff Fletcher quotes Eppler:' “We feel very good about the club we have right now,” Eppler said. “We feel prepared to head into the season. If there are additions along the way, we’re obviously open minded to it, but we feel good with our club.”'

Presuming that the expected starters are healthy (at least to start the season), adding Odorizzi will likely force Heaney or Skaggs to the minors and will create an even bigger roster crunch in 2019.  I personally am not in favor of that course of action--especially if it means trading a top minor prospect like Jones.

 

Agreed.

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, oater said:

Notwithstanding the MLBTR spin, I don't sense that anything is happening re Odorizzi.  The TB article is about plans for the new baseball stadium and in an aside states that the Rays "have been talking about dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi with a number of teams, said to include the Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Angels and possibly Orioles."  In today's OCR, Jeff Fletcher quotes Eppler:' “We feel very good about the club we have right now,” Eppler said. “We feel prepared to head into the season. If there are additions along the way, we’re obviously open minded to it, but we feel good with our club.”'

Presuming that the expected starters are healthy (at least to start the season), adding Odorizzi will likely force Heaney or Skaggs to the minors and will create an even bigger roster crunch in 2019.  I personally am not in favor of that course of action--especially if it means trading a top minors prospect like Jones.

 

That is specifically why I made the thread title "Odorizzi Tied to Angels" and not in the manner MLBTradeRumors.com did.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

I may be wrong but I don’t think Cron has much value....or he’d already be gone....

Cron's market is pretty narrow.  He has some value but only to very few teams.  I think tampa could be one of those teams.  

But if you look at Cron vs. Odorizzi, they are pretty similar in terms of what they've done vs. what they should have done by now and what they could do.  

Cron has a career wRC+ of 107.  So a bit above league average.  He's become a solid defender and has yet to get a full seasons worth of AB in any given year.  He's entering his age 28 season so he should be entering his prime and he's got three years of control left.  He's very streaky but seems to get better the more he plays.  

Odorizzi has a career FIP- of 105.  So a bit below league avg.  His era- is 96 so a shade above avg.  He's got some upside but just came off his worst season of the past 4 years and is also entering his age 28 season.  But he's only got 2 years of control left.  

Granted, a league avg pitcher is more valuable than a 1bman that is a league avg hitter.  For the rays, I doubt they would want to spend 10-12mil on any one give player and they've got a lot of young major league ready pitching in De Leon and Honeywell.  So Cron could have some decent value.  Trading one decent yet somewhat underachieving player for another could work. 

Again, I don't think Cron is enough by himself in any way, But if it allows us to give up Hermosillo instead of Jones, I'm all for it.  

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, oater said:

Notwithstanding the MLBTR spin, I don't sense that anything is happening re Odorizzi.  The TB article is about plans for the new baseball stadium and in an aside states that the Rays "have been talking about dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi with a number of teams, said to include the Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Angels and possibly Orioles."  In today's OCR, Jeff Fletcher quotes Eppler:' “We feel very good about the club we have right now,” Eppler said. “We feel prepared to head into the season. If there are additions along the way, we’re obviously open minded to it, but we feel good with our club.”'

Presuming that the expected starters are healthy (at least to start the season), adding Odorizzi will likely force Heaney or Skaggs to the minors and will create an even bigger roster crunch in 2019.  I personally am not in favor of that course of action--especially if it means trading a top minors prospect like Jones.

 

Ohtani, Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoe, Odorizzi displaces Ramirez to the pen and Bridwell, Trop, and Barria to AAA.  

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Again, I don't think Cron is enough by himself in any way, But if it allows us to give up Hermosillo instead of Jones, I'm all for it.  

I can see this being realistic, and I can see Tampa valuing Cron because of his control and affordable cost. His bat may play really well with a lot of games in AL East parks too. 

I think it'd take some good fortune too, like MIL flipping Santana for Corbin and Minnesota signing Cobb or Lynn, either of which seem realistic.

Matt Shoemaker feels like a sort of comparable pitcher for Odorizzi when it comes to trade value.

[totdprods]

Odorizzi's arbitration case is coming up in a couple days, so something may budge soon. 

His '18 salary won't really be cheap - at least $6m - which works in the Angels favor as the Rays have some extra incentive to move it. If you took Span back as a 4th OF and sent them Cron and a solid prospect - one of Jones, Marsh, or Thaiss at most - the Rays save something like $14m, get a controllable lotto ticket 1B, and get a good prospect...Angels overpay slightly for a 4th OF, find a way to get something for Cron, only sacrifice a prospect that could prove redundant, and get a durable, controllable #3-4 starter with upside for more. That's a fair deal for both teams.

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Odorizzi's arbitration case is coming up in a couple days, so something may budge soon. 

His '18 salary won't really be cheap - at least $6m - which works in the Angels favor as the Rays have some extra incentive to move it. If you took Span back as a 4th OF and sent them Cron and a solid prospect - one of Jones, Marsh, or Thaiss at most - the Rays save something like $14m, get a controllable lotto ticket 1B, and get a good prospect...Angels overpay slightly for a 4th OF, find a way to get something for Cron, only sacrifice a prospect that could prove redundant, and get a durable, controllable #3-4 starter with upside for more. That's a fair deal for both teams.

Agree that's fair, but I just don't see us taking on Span just to get Odorizzi unless we don't have to give up any prospects at all.  His salary is 11mil for 2018 but his option buyout is 4mil.  That's a shit ton of dead money and would substantially decrease our flexibility for adding at the deadline.  

[oater]

 

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Ohtani, Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoe, Odorizzi displaces Ramirez to the pen and Bridwell, Trop, and Barria to AAA.  

My working assumption is that the Angels will go with a hybrid 6 man rotation with Ramirez being in the pen and making spot starts as needed.  I suppose Skaggs could take on that role, but Ramirez would seem to be the ideal fit.

[ettin]

For the record the Angels could have interest in any of the following Rays players IMHO:

• Chris Archer
• Jake Odorizzi
• Corey Dickerson
• Brad Miller
• Wilson Ramos
• Alex Colome
• Denard Span

The Rays have to cut some salary and most of these guys except Archer and Colome have less than 2 years left on their contracts. They match up fairly well and I think the Rays need longer term control and probably something near-term ready because they look like they can simply re-load and go at it again in 2019 or 2020. I think if they had a higher payroll tolerance they wouldn't even be retooling like they are but they have to really focus on their projected window of contention.

[GrittyVeterans]

Archer would be amazing in a pitcher's park with an elite defense. Would probably put up ace numbers here. But do you really want to give up a few top prospects for him?

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Agree that's fair, but I just don't see us taking on Span just to get Odorizzi unless we don't have to give up any prospects at all.  His salary is 11mil for 2018 but his option buyout is 4mil.  That's a shit ton of dead money and would substantially decrease our flexibility for adding at the deadline.  

Agreed, but at least when it comes to luxury tax AAV, the option is already factored into his current deal, so his luxury tax AAV will be 11mil for this season.  Odorizzi + Span would add roughly 17mil (depending on Odorizzi's arbitration outcome).  If we did include Cron in the deal, that saves 2.3mil in return.  We basically have 22mil total of space as of now (factoring in Pujols' guaranteed 3mil incentive bonus), so making this kind of trade most likely leaves us with only 6mil of wiggle room during the season.

[Warfarin]

Personally, while it'd be nice to have someone like Odorizzi on our staff, I don't think he's really necessary, as we do have a number of mid-rotation starter types on our current staff (depending on health, naturally).

Someone I'd keep an eye on mid-season is Jacob DeGrom.  The Mets won't trade him now, but if they have another down year, I could see them becoming sellers at the trade deadline.  DeGrom is becoming more expensive now (7.4mil this year), so they might look to trade him before he becomes too exorbitant for them to retain.  He'd cost us, but he'd be a top-flight starter and give us a strong top 3 of DeGrom, Ohtani, Richards.

[DCAngelsFan]

9 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Archer would be amazing in a pitcher's park with an elite defense. Would probably put up ace numbers here. But do you really want to give up a few top prospects for him?

Twins are reportedly trying to acquire, but apparently are finding the cost in prospects too dear.  It's a team-friendly contract, with the options, and you're right, he could reach "ace" level - which is what's been said about him for years, but hasn't quite achieved.

One thing in a long-term valuation -  he's always had a high workload - his age and innings and pitching style are starting to reach the point where I'd start to be concerned (not that he's shown *any* signs of breaking down - but a guy who throws 200 innings year, and now throws a slider 44% of the time?  can't help but make you nervous if you're looking to get 3 years of value from him.)

I think he's slightly underperformed his talent -- but think on this club, in this park, you're right, he could finally turn that corner - I think he probably struggles a bit on bad teams.

But all that potential, and that team-friendly contract means he's a valuable commodity - the price in prospects would be, to me, intolerable - our farm is finally showing a pulse, and I'm a little flinchy at the thought of emptying it for "one" player, no matter who it is.   

[nate]

Ordozzi would be a great pick up for the Angels.

Need to stop relying on guys like Shoe and Skaggs.  Not to mention Heaney and Richards who are coming back from major injury.

[Chuck]

Jake Odorizzi has outperformed his peripherals in each of the past three seasons, but the gap was more pronounced in 2017. The right-hander finished with a low-4.00s ERA, but his FIP was more than a run worse at 5.43. His walk rate jumped from 7.0 percent to 10.1 percent and Odorizzi struggled with the long ball (30 homers allowed) as his groundball rate fell six percentage points to 30.6 percent -- well below the league average. He struggled mightily while working the third time through the order (7.52 ERA), but was bailed out by good fortune on balls in play (.227 BABIP). To his credit, Odorizzi held lefties to a .205/.285/.402 line. He made two trips to the DL, first for a hamstring injury and later for a back injury.

[Mark68]

On 2/10/2018 at 10:45 PM, Chuckster70 said:

Cron, Perez & Cowart for Odorizzi ?

If this is the package, hell yes!

However, I don't think the Rays will want that package.

 

He he...I said "package". Twice.

[Mark68]

On 2/10/2018 at 10:56 PM, Chuckster70 said:

What's the absolute most you'd give up for Odorizzi?

Mike Trout

 

 

 

 

j/k

 

 

It would cost one of our best prospects. As long at its ONE of them with some other pieces, I'm fine with it.

[Angel Oracle]

If Cron would start having consistent enough seasons (no more half-season tanks), his value would be solid enough since his defense plays much better now than it did 3-4 years ago. 

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, nate said:

Ordozzi would be a great pick up for the Angels.

Need to stop relying on guys like Shoe and Skaggs.  Not to mention Heaney and Richards who are coming back from major injury.

Personally, I'd love to see Shoe and that splitter move into a key late innings role where it could dominate opposing batters at a crucial time. 

[Erstad Grit]

I'd dump the farm to get Colome and Archer