Is this the new norm for Trout?

[Angelsjunky]

I was worried he'd flounder after getting back, but he's pretty much hitting the same--about .330 with a bit less power, although his HR seem to come in bunches and he might be going on a power binge.

Even if he cools off a bit, he's going to finish around .320/.450/.650 with 35ish HR in 115 games. Is this the new norm for him? I was one of the folks who thought he might have peaked in his early 20s, but now I'm not so sure.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Yes

[Jobu]

Lock thread

[tdawg87]

Yes, until he out does himself next year and we ask the same question again.

[Docwaukee]

It's funny to say, but you could see his timing was off a bit when he first came back.  

[bloodbrother]

There is no norm for Trout. Whenever a weakness pops up in his game, he quickly addresses it and turns it into a strength.

[JustATroutFan]

Probably not but I hope 2014 is his most "disappointing" season for another decade. This place would be panicking if Trout has a season like McCutchen did last year.

[Angels#1Fan]

I don't know if this is the new normal for Trout or not, but I believe that his best season has yet to be played.
 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, JustATroutFan said:

Probably not but I hope 2014 is his most "disappointing" season for another decade. This place would be panicking if Trout has a season like McCutchen did last year.

Or like Harper had every year except 2015 and now 2017.

[Angelsjunky]

Harper Butthurt, Exhibit A. 

Harper had a breakout year in 2015, struggled in 2016, and is back to elite level again this year. He may be less consistent than Trout, but he's clearly a superstar and will give great performances most years.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Makes you wonder what trouts numbers would be if he hadnt gotten hurt. 

How many guys have there been like him? Where hes the clear cut best player, for 5 years now. Harper, mcab, and a few others are/were right alongside him. But usually (at least it seems) that even the best guys have more competition, years where someone else was better, but the end up overall dominant. Pujols in his prime maybe, but arod, griffey, bonds etc were there. 

[Puget Sound Angel]

And then the New York media told us Aaron Judge was the face of the game.

BWAWAWHAHAHAHA!

[Angelsjunky]

32 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Makes you wonder what trouts numbers would be if he hadnt gotten hurt. 

How many guys have there been like him? Where hes the clear cut best player, for 5 years now. Harper, mcab, and a few others are/were right alongside him. But usually (at least it seems) that even the best guys have more competition, years where someone else was better, but the end up overall dominant. Pujols in his prime maybe, but arod, griffey, bonds etc were there. 

To speculate about the first, let's say he cooled off a bit but not too much. He missed almost 40 games, so I'd project him out to about .330/.450/.670 with 33 HR and 80+ RBI and Runs, and 7 fWAR.

As to the second, I think you're right - the only real comps over the last 30 years or so are Pujols, A-Rod, Bonds, and maybe Griffey. But of those guys, I'm not sure any was the clear cut best player in the game for six years in a row, let alone their first six. Barring major injury, he's going to reach 100 fWAR sometime in his early 30s, a threshold only 20 position players had surpassed. Barring catastrophic (Pujolsian) decline, he's going to finish his career with 120+ fWAR.

Trout's best statistical comp is Mantle, who finished with 112.3 career fWAR, but whose career was shortened by alcoholism, a problem Trout doesn't have. Mantle was a better player in his 20s than Mays, but Mays had his best years in his 30s and finished with 149.9 fWAR. But I think you start with Mantle and adjust for greater health and longevity and you end up with 130+ career fWAR. 

[Angelsjunky]

Judge was never going to hit .330 and 60 HR, but I see no reason why he can't hit .290 with 45 HR.

[Docwaukee]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Harper Butthurt, Exhibit A. 

Harper had a breakout year in 2015, struggled in 2016, and is back to elite level again this year. He may be less consistent than Trout, but he's clearly a superstar and will give great performances most years.

why is it butthurt?  Harper is a superstar.  He's on a HOF trajectory.  

Comparing the two is apples and oranges right now.  

[Docwaukee]

the key for any of the true inner circle guys is how they perform from age 34 through the end of their career.  

[Blarg]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Harper Butthurt, Exhibit A. 

Harper had a breakout year in 2015, struggled in 2016, and is back to elite level again this year. He may be less consistent than Trout, but he's clearly a superstar and will give great performances most years.

You have to wonder what Trout's numbers would look like playing in Milwaukee with a 118 park factor as opposed to Anaheim at 86. 

[Blarg]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

why is it butthurt?  Harper is a superstar.  He's on a HOF trajectory.  

Comparing the two is apples and oranges right now.  

It's more like apples to apples. The rest of the league is cherry tomatoes trying to work their way into the recipe.

[krAbs]

Mike Trout.

[Second Base]

If it is the new norm, we can expect .330/.450 45 HR's and 30 SB going forward.  I'll take that action. 

[JustATroutFan]

30 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You have to wonder what Trout's numbers would look like playing in Milwaukee with a 118 park factor as opposed to Anaheim at 86. 

Or playing in 2000 at Coors Field with a park factor over 130.

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

To speculate about the first, let's say he cooled off a bit but not too much. He missed almost 40 games, so I'd project him out to about .330/.450/.670 with 33 HR and 80+ RBI and Runs, and 7 fWAR.

As to the second, I think you're right - the only real comps over the last 30 years or so are Pujols, A-Rod, Bonds, and maybe Griffey. But of those guys, I'm not sure any was the clear cut best player in the game for six years in a row, let alone their first six. Barring major injury, he's going to reach 100 fWAR sometime in his early 30s, a threshold only 20 position players had surpassed. Barring catastrophic (Pujolsian) decline, he's going to finish his career with 120+ fWAR.

Trout's best statistical comp is Mantle, who finished with 112.3 career fWAR, but whose career was shortened by alcoholism, a problem Trout doesn't have. Mantle was a better player in his 20s than Mays, but Mays had his best years in his 30s and finished with 149.9 fWAR. But I think you start with Mantle and adjust for greater health and longevity and you end up with 130+ career fWAR. 

I cant really think of any. Bonds, griffey, arod, etc all at one point or another maybe had the better year than the other guy. But at least as far as i can remember, none were notably "the best" for this long. Almost like kershaw pitching wise.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Harper is currently 26th all time in rWAR (assuming he continues his current pace...then he'll end in the 21-24 range)

Really, for his age or years of service right? He is no where near all time leaders. Stanton hits HR at higher pace. Don't get me wrong he is a good player, but his BA is .270 except for 2 years. He is not consistent enough. As far as his HR go Trumbo has been just as likely to match him on a yearly basis and Trumbo is no Super Star. Harper is a great player but isn't consistent. I would love him to be an Angel.

[arch stanton]

Harper will be a HoFer. When he goes free agent I'll bet anything he chooses a team in a very hitter friendly park and ends his career with monster counting numbers 

[Angelsjunky]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

why is it butthurt?  Harper is a superstar.  He's on a HOF trajectory.  

Comparing the two is apples and oranges right now.  

The implication that Harper isn't great because he's not Trout is butthurt, or looking for flaws in what Harper has done so far. People seem to forget that Trout's career start is unprecedented in major league history, at least going back to Mantle and then Cobb - those are the only two guys where similarly as good through age 25 (due to Trout's injury he won't pass Cobb for age 25 fWAR, but he will pass Mantle and be #2).

Harper is a douche, but he is scary good with the bat. He's one of the four or five best players in the game right now.