Every thing that's been wrong with the Angels BP piece

[bloodbrother]

Good and painful read on everything that's been wrong so far(spoiler: nearly everything)

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20493

 

Bullpen
The Angels have used 14 relievers, which is already absurd, and seven of those relievers have ERAs of 9 or higher, which is also absurd. They have used Michael Roth, who was a ninth-round pick 11 months ago. They have used Ryan Brasier, who has a 4.74 ERA in parts of three seasons as a Triple-A reliever, and who is right-handed. They have used Barry Enright, who was called up despite a 9.61 ERA (nine homers!) in 20 innings at Salt Lake. There are reasons for using this many pitchers that are out of the Angels’ control (extra-innings games, injuries to Ryan Madson, Sean Burnett, and Kevin Jepsen, and injuries and bereavement leave in the rotation requiring Garrett Richards and other relievers to make starts). And there are reasons for using this many pitchers that will continue to be a problem all year, namely that Ryan Brasier, Michael Roth, and Barry Enright are among the players the Angels are trying to get innings out of.

[Angel Oracle]

Roth not so much, but Enright?   Why is he even in AAA?

[bloodbrother]

Woops, forgot you need a paid sub to read

 

Anyway, basically it details how nearly everybody on the team is underperforming their to date projections. Only Trumbo, Trout and Bourjos have actually been doing better

 

The pitching, as we all know, has been disastrous.

 

Tommy Hanson
Expected WARP: 0.4
WARP: -0.2
Hanson’s velocity dropped again, and now only six right-handed starters—Dylan Axelrod, Carlos Villanueva, R.A. Dickey, Jon Garland, Jason Marquis and Bronson Arroyo—are averaging a slower heater than Hanson. At his current trajectory he’ll be throwing more sliders than fastballs soon. In his most recent start, he got eight swinging strikes, a season high. Just two years ago, in 2011, he got at least nine swinging strikes in 14 of his 22 starts. He was an upside gamble, so you can support the acquisition, but now we know more. There’s no upside left, and it’s probably a better bet that his 4.18 ERA will go up than go down.

 

Vargas has been about as good as you'd expect him to be. The loss of Weav has likely cost the Halos 2 wins with the replacements they've used in his place

 

This was funny

 

Joe Blanton
Expected WARP: 0.0
WARP: -0.3
Hitters are swinging at more of Blanton’s pitches in the zone. They’re laying off more of his pitches out of the zone. They’re making contact with more of the pitches they swing at in the zone. So that explains Joe Blanton.

[Angel Oracle]

That explains Blantana's increased pitch counts and far less Ks (usually around 7 Ks/9 innings in the past, now at just 4.5 Ks/9 innings).

[bloodbrother]

Also details how Hamilton actually isn't doing any worse than last year when it comes to his approach at the plate. He isn't swinging and missing at more pitches, he isn't chasing more pitches.

 

"the point is that the narrative about Hamilton being on tilt and swinging at too many changeups out of the zone isn’t a great explanation for his struggles. He’s basically doing what he did when he was good; and now it’s not working, at all; which is encouraging, in the short term, suggesting the fundamentals of his economy remain strong; but would be extremely discouraging, if it persists, suggesting in that case that he has simply lost the ability to play baseball the way he used to."

[Angel Oracle]

Kohn needs to get more work in.

Since his poor inning vs. Texas on 4/24, he's pitched 5.1 innings and allowed just 3 baserunners while K'ing 7.

His stuff (mid 90s, solid slider) plays to potentially being a solid setup guy in the long run.

 

If only we could get everyone in the pen healthy, and see if Frieri, Madson, Jepsen, Kohn, Burnett, Downs, and Williams could be a decent pen for the rest of the season, once healthy.

 

And yes, I'd keep Williams as the utility pitcher.   He's performed better in that role, than in a starting role.

Might as well keep Richards in the rotation as long as needed, and see what he can do for say 2 months.

We aren't going anywhere anyway.