Los Angeles Angels: Five (Kind of) Easy Steps to Contention in 2017

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

The Angels were 74-88 in 2016, although with a somewhat more promising 80-82 Pythagorean record. But as DocHalo pointed out here, we shouldn't be too optimistic about that Pythagorean record. But we should also remember that the Angels' pitching staff was devastated, losing the staff ace (Garret Richards), two other promising young starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano), and closer (Huston Street) to injury, not to mention a slower recovery time from Tyler Skaggs and that gruesome late injury to Matt Shoemaker. In other words, the Angels were so bad at least partially due to just horrible luck, and hopefully can expect better next year. Hopefully.

Given that the Rangers played way over their heads last year on route to 95 wins, and second place Seattle won 86 games, the mediocre AL West in 2017 could be won by 90ish wins. Simply being above .500 should keep a team in contention deep into the year, and thus be eligible for mid-season trade upgrades. In other words, the Angels could win the AL West next year simply by playing average or better for the first half of the year, then making a few tweaks and going on a hot streak. The point being, it only takes fielding a .500 plus team to start the year to have a legitimate shot at the postseason.

So how to get there from here? And how to do so without busting the bank (Yoenis Cespedes) or trading away the few good prospects the Angels have (Jahmai Jones, Matt Thaiss, Michael Hermosillo, etc)? It actually isn't that hard; or, at least, it isn't that difficult to understand a path towards contention, and in five (easy?) steps! 

1. Stay Healthy

This is the hardest and, unfortunately, the most difficult part. The key players--aside from Trout, whom we will never mention in relation to injury...ever--are Richards and Skaggs. Together they pitched 16 starts for a combined 1.4 fWAR. Let's also throw in Alex Meyer, who pitched 5 starts for 0.3 fWAR. That gives us a grand total of 21 starts and 1.7 fWAR, which is a cumulative mid-rotation performance (roughtly 2.5 WAR for 32 starts). If we assume roughly the same performance in total from those three as a baseline, and then reduce all three to 25-30 starts to account for babying, then we get 75-90 starts, or about 60 more than they pitched in 2016, which would lead to a gain of approximately +5 fWAR. Those 60 starts replace the 47 starts and -1.6 fWAR from Jered Weaver, Tim Lincecum, David Huff, and Daniel Wright, plus Tropeano's 13 (+0.1). In other words, just by being relatively healthy and performing at the same level as 2016, those three starters should give the rotation a swing of around +6.5 fWAR, or a broader range of roughly +5 to +8 fWAR.

OK, I will say something about Trout. There is no team in baseball that's success relies more upon a single player. That is a huge problem, and very different from, say, the 2002 World Champs who were a team of good to very good players, but no clear stars; the highest fWAR on that team was David Eckstein's 4.5 (!), but the lineup had eight players of 2.5 fWAR or higher. But there are numerous roads to Rome; the current team has Trout, who is better than any combination of two players on the 2002 squad. Meaning, everyone else on Trout's Angels doesn't have to be quite as good as the cast of 2002. But the point is, for the Angels to be vaguely decent Trout has to be healthy unless, of course, the rest of the lineup is really good--which is hard to imagine happening in the next year or two. So any conceivable path to the playoffs involves a healthy Trout.

Other than the starters, we need good health all around but it isn't as dire as the starters--namely, Richards, Shoemaker and Skaggs--and, of course, Trout. We need basic health from the major supporting cast: especially Simmons and Calhoun, but also Cron, Escobar, Bandy, Pujols, etc. But if any of those guys go down, the Angels can theoretically find a way to plug the whole.

To put all of that another way, you could rank the Angels in terms of tiers by importance of health:

Apocalypic: Trout

Crucial: Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Calhoun, Simmons. 

Important: Nolasco, Meyer, Bedrosian, Street, Cron, Pujols, Escobar, Bandy.

Recommendation: Pray. Knock on wood. And hope to (whatever deity or divine or otherwise force you believe in) that “biomechanics,” or whatever it is, bears results.

2 and 3: Improve Weakest Lineup Spots: 2B and LF

These two go together because they're very similar. A couple years ago I was one of the many who was happy with the Kendrick-for-Heaney trade. Howie was his usual self in 2015, but he really struggled in 2016 so that despite only seeing all of 19 starts from Heaney so far, with none likely in 2017, the trade doesn't look so bad and still promises to turn out well in the long-run. But it has left a massive whole at 2B which Gio only adequately filled in 2015, not so adequately in 2016. Left field has been similar but even worse, with the Angels unable to replace Josh Hamilton's mediocre production with the motley likes of Matt Joyce, David Murphy, David DeJesus, Shane Victorino, Colin Cowgill, Daniel Robertson, Kirk Niewhatshisfuck, Efren Navarro, Rafael Ortega, Daniel Nava, Craig Gentry, Shane Robinson, Nick Buss, Ji-Man Choi, and Todd Cunningham. The overall result has been a total and utter disaster, especially considering that left field is one of the easiest positions to fill with at least adequate production.

Now there aren't a lot of even decent options, especially at 2B where Neil Walker is the only plus player available and is likely to be very expensive. Walker is not a star but about as consistent as you can get; from the time he broke into the majors in 2010 he has accrued 19.5 fWAR, or an average of 2.8 per season including a career-high 3.7 last year.  He is the definition of “good ballplayer,” not a star, but a very consistent above average player. The question is, how much is that worth for a player who turns 32 at the end of next year? 

An intriguing in-house option is Kaleb Cowart, who should be able to be a plus defender. The big concern is his bat, which has been downright Woodsian so far (.176/.210/.267), albeit in limited play (139 PA). It is probable that Cowart wouldn't be much better than replacement level in 2017, with poor offense and plus defense. Assuming the Angels don't go after Walker, their best bet might be to sign a solid role player like Stephen Drew and platoon him with Cowart.

As for LF, it seems that Eppler doesn't consider Jefry Marte to be a full-time solution. Despite Marte's plus power, he's probably right and Marte should continue as a platoon player, getting plenty of starts at the infield and outfield corners. But there are plenty of decent options in the outfield, with the best--Yoenis Cespedes--likely to be way too expensive, and the next group--Josh Reddick, Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista--likely to be over-priced and not as good as their price tag. Dexter Fowler is an interesting option who would give the Angels another pretty good OBP in front of Trout. 

Given that they want to hold the spot for Jahmai Jones in 2019 or 2020, they could take an unconventional approach and offer soon-to-be 40-year but still productive Carlos Beltran a one-year contract with a vesting option, or sign someone like Jon Jay, Michael Saunders, or Nori Aoki who would, at the least, provide solid performance and plug the gushing torrent of suckiness that has been LF the last two years. Or you could take a risk on Carlos Gomez and hope he re-captures his 2014 form. 

The other option is a trade, but the Angels don't have a lot to offer. 

Anyhow, probably the single free agent who would represent the largest upgrade for the Angels is either Walker or Cespedes, either of whom would represent a +4 to 5 swing at one position—at least in the short term. Both represent substantial risks because of their age. Plus Cespedes has “future hotdog” written all over him; it is easy to imagine a scenario where he “did a Hamilton” and declined rapidly. I personally would prefer Fowler to Cespedes, who would probably cost $10M less per year but not be far behind in WAR. But the point being, even getting one of these biggish names would be a huge upgrade and turn a gaping hole to a positive—and thus be the single largest improvement possible. With money spent on one, the Angels can go the cheap route on the other.

Oh yeah, one more thing. How about a fifth outfielder with speed? Someone to pinch run and steal bases late in the game? The Royals employed this tactic so well a couple years ago—decimating the Angels in the 2014 ALDS—that I'm not sure why every team hasn't adopted this approach You don't need a guy who can hit, just run, steal bases, and play defense—and there are a bunch of these guys lying around in AAA.

Recommendation: For 2B, it is tempting to go after Walker. If it somehow possible to get him to sign a three-year contract (unlikely) or possible a four-year contract (possible) for the right price, I say go for it. If he wants five years I'd stay away. There simply is no way to improve the team as drastically in one move. If his price tag gets out of hand (say, more than 4/$60M) then sign Stephen Drew and platoon him with Kaleb Cowart. For LF, I would consider Fowler and Gomez. If the latter can be had for a one-year “prove myself” deal, go for it. I believe that Gomez doesn't require a lost draft pick, as he was traded mid-season. If he too gets too expensive or if someone swoops in and offers him a multi-year deal, Fowler is the better bet for something like 4/$56M. If that doesn't work, sign one of the solid players—Aoki, Saunders, Jay—to tide us over until Hermosillo and/or Jones is ready in a couple years. But stay away from Cespedes and the five-year, $25-30M per year contract he is going to try to get.

4. Sign a Top-shelf Reliever, and one or two ones with good upside

Cam Bedrosian was easily the best reliever on the club, with Deolis Guerra, Jose Alvarez, Mike Morin, JC Ramirez, and possibly Andrew Bailey showing solid value as middle relievers, but none are irreplaceable. The problem with the Angels bullpen is that there is only one truly good reliever in Bedrosian, at least without Huston Street finding his pre-2016 form. The rest are essentially run-of-the-mill middle relievers; some—Fernando Salas, Cory Rasmus, Greg Mahle, AJ Achter, Jose Valdez, and Bret Oberholtzer—were varying shades of mediocre to terrible. 

Going into 2017, Bedrosian is a lock, and presumably Street will be back, although I see him gradually transitioning to a setup role as Bedrosian takes over closer. Guerra has earned a spot on the roster, and Alvarez and Morin—and possibly Bailey or Ramirez--provide decent middle relief depth. What the Angels lack is another reliever with lights-out stuff to pair with Bedrosian. Perhaps this could be Manny Banuelos, who a few years ago used to project as a #3 starter for the Yankees, or Alex Meyer if the Angels sign a starter. 

But there are some really good options on the free agent market, including marquee closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, both of whom will likely set records for reliever contracts; some are predicting nine-figures for Chapman (!). There's also Greg Holland of the Royals, who was supplanted as their closer by Wade Davis. Holland was great in 2014-15 but struggled last year and could be a really good buy. Mark Melancon is another top tier closer option but won't come cheaply. There are many other options, but those are the best of the crop and what the Angels really need is someone very good.

Recommendation: It is a bit risky spending big money on a reliever, so I'd probably stay away from Chapman and Jansen, and Melancon will also likely be quite expensive, but Holland would be a great option, in addition to someone like Neftali Feliz and bringing Andrew Bailey back. Ramirez and Morin can be stuffed in AAA with Banuelos. The Angels could enter the year with a bullpen of Bedrosian, Holland, Street, Guerra, Alvarez, Bailey, and Feliz. Not bad.

5. Sign a Mid-Rotation Starter

Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, and Nolasco are locks; Weaver, Chacin and Meyer are not. It sounds like Weaver won't be tendered a contract, not with his continued decline (his ERA grew for the fifth straight year, finally breaching the 5.00 mark in 2016 and showing no signs of going down, as his 5.62 FIP attests). Chacin makes a decent “sixth man” or mopup guy so could be re-signed, and Meyer could end up as either the fifth starter or transition to a flame-throwing reliever.

There is a viable if unlikely scenario in which the Angels have a strong rotation without making a move. In this pipe-dream, health abounds. Richards returns to 2014 form, Shoemaker continues where he left off with before being beaned in the cranium. Skaggs finally finds his health and potential, Nolasco continues his 2016 performance with the Angels, and Meyer finds command and consistency. All of a sudden you have a legit staff ace and four bonafide mid-rotation starters.

But it is highly unlikely that everything goes right, and chances are Eppler will at least want to build more depth in case of a Meyer meltdown and/or an injury to one of the others. Probably the choice with the highest floor, but also biggest contract, is Jeremy Hellickson – who is a solid #3-4 type, but not exactly sexy. 37-year old (in March) Rich Hill is a popular mention around these parts after he produced a very sexy 2.12 ERA and ridiculous peripherals (10.52 K rate and 2.69 BB rate) in 20 starts, but chances are other teams are salivating over the chance to snag him on the cheap and thus he won't go cheap. Other possibilities aren't as good: The talented by oft-injured Brett Anderson might be a nice gamble and could probably be had for an affordable one-year contract, the ever-disappointing Andrew Cashner is another buy-low candidate who could bounce back, or don't be surprised if the Red Sox opt out on Clay Buchholz who fits a similar mold. Ivan Nova has a higher floor but lower ceiling than these guys and would likely be another #4-5 type like Nolasco.

Recommendation: My personal preference would be to go hard after Hill. If the Angels can get him for something like 3/$45M, then they should do it. He'll be 37 and presents some risk but has few innings on his arm and is the best of the bunch by a long-shot. Unlike Hellickson, if he bombs then it is a shorter sunk investment. Hellickson is tempting but will probably require a Wilson/Weaver-type 5/$80M contract and I'm a bit leery of his 2016 contract year 3.71 ERA performance after three prior years of 5.17, 4.52, 4.62 ERAs. Hellickson is a #4 starter who will be paid as at least a #3.

So if Hill doesn't happen, why not take a chance on one of Anderson, Cashner, or Buchholz? All of these guys can probably be had for a “I want to prove myself” one-year deal, so the risk is low. They can compete with Meyer and Banuelos for a rotation spot and, assuming they win it, give the Angels better depth and potential converted power relievers in Meyer and Banuelos.

Extra Credit: Upgrade at 3B

One more option worth considering is letting Escobar walk and going after Justin Turner, who has quietly been a very strong performer at third base for the last few years, posting a .275/.339/.493 line with 27 HR and 5.6 fWAR last year for the Dodgers. But Turner, despite being 32, won't come cheaply. 

Summary: My Recommendations

- Sign Neil Walker (4/$60M) to play 2B.

- Sign Carlos Gomez on a one-year deal ($15-20M) or Dexter Fowler (4/$56M) to play LF.

- Sign Rich Hill (3/$45M) to start.

- Sign Greg Holland (3/$30M) and Neftali Feliz (2/$15M) to add to the bullpen, plus give Andrew Bailey a one-year contract.

2017 Lineup and Pitching Staff

3B Escobar

2B Walker (or Drew at #8 in lineup)

LF Gomez (or Fowler at #1 in lineup)

CF Trout

RF Calhoun

DH Pujols

1B Cron

SS Simmons

C Bandy

Rotation: Richards, Shoemaker, Hill, Skaggs, Nolasco (with Banuelos, Meyer and Smith in AAA)

Bullpen: Bedrosian, Holland, Street, Bailey, Guerra, Feliz, Alvarez (with Morin and Ramirez in AAA)

And yes, I know I added $60M months more of payroll. This after seeing only Wilson and Weaver's combined $40M coming off the books. This would bring them right up to around the luxury tax threshold of last year ($189M), but maybe with a few tweaks the Angels can stay under. But the above team can win 90+ ball games, especially in the Walker variant. It has depth, variation, and would be a lot of fun to watch.

And yes, I realize that the above almost certainly won't happen, or at least not all of it. But the goal here was to show how to make a viable Angels contender in 2017. I started with the idea of relatively small tweaks to bring the team up to an 80-85 win level so they would be just a tweak or two and a hot streak away from the division title, but ended up building a much stronger team. My revised view is that just basic health and only small tweaks puts this team back to the 80-85 range, but with some strong moves—like those suggest above—this team could be a legit contender again.

View the full article

[Chuck]

Good stuff @Angelsjunky

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

55 minutes ago, AngelsWin.com said:

 

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

 

The Angels were 74-88 in 2016, although with a somewhat more promising 80-82 Pythagorean record. But as DocHalo pointed out here, we shouldn't be too optimistic about that Pythagorean record. But we should also remember that the Angels' pitching staff was devastated, losing the staff ace (Garret Richards), two other promising young starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano), and closer (Huston Street) to injury, not to mention a slower recovery time from Tyler Skaggs and that gruesome late injury to Matt Shoemaker. In other words, the Angels were so bad at least partially due to just horrible luck, and hopefully can expect better next year. Hopefully.

 

Given that the Rangers played way over their heads last year on route to 95 wins, and second place Seattle won 86 games, the mediocre AL West in 2017 could be won by 90ish wins. Simply being above .500 should keep a team in contention deep into the year, and thus be eligible for mid-season trade upgrades. In other words, the Angels could win the AL West next year simply by playing average or better for the first half of the year, then making a few tweaks and going on a hot streak. The point being, it only takes fielding a .500 plus team to start the year to have a legitimate shot at the postseason.

 

So how to get there from here? And how to do so without busting the bank (Yoenis Cespedes) or trading away the few good prospects the Angels have (Jahmai Jones, Matt Thaiss, Michael Hermosillo, etc)? It actually isn't that hard; or, at least, it isn't that difficult to understand a path towards contention, and in five (easy?) steps! 

 

1. Stay Healthy

This is the hardest and, unfortunately, the most difficult part. The key players--aside from Trout, whom we will never mention in relation to injury...ever--are Richards and Skaggs. Together they pitched 16 starts for a combined 1.4 fWAR. Let's also throw in Alex Meyer, who pitched 5 starts for 0.3 fWAR. That gives us a grand total of 21 starts and 1.7 fWAR, which is a cumulative mid-rotation performance (roughtly 2.5 WAR for 32 starts). If we assume roughly the same performance in total from those three as a baseline, and then reduce all three to 25-30 starts to account for babying, then we get 75-90 starts, or about 60 more than they pitched in 2016, which would lead to a gain of approximately +5 fWAR. Those 60 starts replace the 47 starts and -1.6 fWAR from Jered Weaver, Tim Lincecum, David Huff, and Daniel Wright, plus Tropeano's 13 (+0.1). In other words, just by being relatively healthy and performing at the same level as 2016, those three starters should give the rotation a swing of around +6.5 fWAR, or a broader range of roughly +5 to +8 fWAR.

 

OK, I will say something about Trout. There is no team in baseball that's success relies more upon a single player. That is a huge problem, and very different from, say, the 2002 World Champs who were a team of good to very good players, but no clear stars; the highest fWAR on that team was David Eckstein's 4.5 (!), but the lineup had eight players of 2.5 fWAR or higher. But there are numerous roads to Rome; the current team has Trout, who is better than any combination of two players on the 2002 squad. Meaning, everyone else on Trout's Angels doesn't have to be quite as good as the cast of 2002. But the point is, for the Angels to be vaguely decent Trout has to be healthy unless, of course, the rest of the lineup is really good--which is hard to imagine happening in the next year or two. So any conceivable path to the playoffs involves a healthy Trout.

 

Other than the starters, we need good health all around but it isn't as dire as the starters--namely, Richards, Shoemaker and Skaggs--and, of course, Trout. We need basic health from the major supporting cast: especially Simmons and Calhoun, but also Cron, Escobar, Bandy, Pujols, etc. But if any of those guys go down, the Angels can theoretically find a way to plug the whole.

 

To put all of that another way, you could rank the Angels in terms of tiers by importance of health:

 

Apocalypic: Trout

Crucial: Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Calhoun, Simmons. 

Important: Nolasco, Meyer, Bedrosian, Street, Cron, Pujols, Escobar, Bandy.

 

Recommendation: Pray. Knock on wood. And hope to (whatever deity or divine or otherwise force you believe in) that “biomechanics,” or whatever it is, bears results.

 

2 and 3: Improve Weakest Lineup Spots: 2B and LF

These two go together because they're very similar. A couple years ago I was one of the many who was happy with the Kendrick-for-Heaney trade. Howie was his usual self in 2015, but he really struggled in 2016 so that despite only seeing all of 19 starts from Heaney so far, with none likely in 2017, the trade doesn't look so bad and still promises to turn out well in the long-run. But it has left a massive whole at 2B which Gio only adequately filled in 2015, not so adequately in 2016. Left field has been similar but even worse, with the Angels unable to replace Josh Hamilton's mediocre production with the motley likes of Matt Joyce, David Murphy, David DeJesus, Shane Victorino, Colin Cowgill, Daniel Robertson, Kirk Niewhatshisfuck, Efren Navarro, Rafael Ortega, Daniel Nava, Craig Gentry, Shane Robinson, Nick Buss, Ji-Man Choi, and Todd Cunningham. The overall result has been a total and utter disaster, especially considering that left field is one of the easiest positions to fill with at least adequate production.

 

Now there aren't a lot of even decent options, especially at 2B where Neil Walker is the only plus player available and is likely to be very expensive. Walker is not a star but about as consistent as you can get; from the time he broke into the majors in 2010 he has accrued 19.5 fWAR, or an average of 2.8 per season including a career-high 3.7 last year.  He is the definition of “good ballplayer,” not a star, but a very consistent above average player. The question is, how much is that worth for a player who turns 32 at the end of next year? 

 

An intriguing in-house option is Kaleb Cowart, who should be able to be a plus defender. The big concern is his bat, which has been downright Woodsian so far (.176/.210/.267), albeit in limited play (139 PA). It is probable that Cowart wouldn't be much better than replacement level in 2017, with poor offense and plus defense. Assuming the Angels don't go after Walker, their best bet might be to sign a solid role player like Stephen Drew and platoon him with Cowart.

 

As for LF, it seems that Eppler doesn't consider Jefry Marte to be a full-time solution. Despite Marte's plus power, he's probably right and Marte should continue as a platoon player, getting plenty of starts at the infield and outfield corners. But there are plenty of decent options in the outfield, with the best--Yoenis Cespedes--likely to be way too expensive, and the next group--Josh Reddick, Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista--likely to be over-priced and not as good as their price tag. Dexter Fowler is an interesting option who would give the Angels another pretty good OBP in front of Trout. 

 

Given that they want to hold the spot for Jahmai Jones in 2019 or 2020, they could take an unconventional approach and offer soon-to-be 40-year but still productive Carlos Beltran a one-year contract with a vesting option, or sign someone like Jon Jay, Michael Saunders, or Nori Aoki who would, at the least, provide solid performance and plug the gushing torrent of suckiness that has been LF the last two years. Or you could take a risk on Carlos Gomez and hope he re-captures his 2014 form. 

 

The other option is a trade, but the Angels don't have a lot to offer. 

 

Anyhow, probably the single free agent who would represent the largest upgrade for the Angels is either Walker or Cespedes, either of whom would represent a +4 to 5 swing at one position—at least in the short term. Both represent substantial risks because of their age. Plus Cespedes has “future hotdog” written all over him; it is easy to imagine a scenario where he “did a Hamilton” and declined rapidly. I personally would prefer Fowler to Cespedes, who would probably cost $10M less per year but not be far behind in WAR. But the point being, even getting one of these biggish names would be a huge upgrade and turn a gaping hole to a positive—and thus be the single largest improvement possible. With money spent on one, the Angels can go the cheap route on the other.

 

Oh yeah, one more thing. How about a fifth outfielder with speed? Someone to pinch run and steal bases late in the game? The Royals employed this tactic so well a couple years ago—decimating the Angels in the 2014 ALDS—that I'm not sure why every team hasn't adopted this approach You don't need a guy who can hit, just run, steal bases, and play defense—and there are a bunch of these guys lying around in AAA.

 

Recommendation: For 2B, it is tempting to go after Walker. If it somehow possible to get him to sign a three-year contract (unlikely) or possible a four-year contract (possible) for the right price, I say go for it. If he wants five years I'd stay away. There simply is no way to improve the team as drastically in one move. If his price tag gets out of hand (say, more than 4/$60M) then sign Stephen Drew and platoon him with Kaleb Cowart. For LF, I would consider Fowler and Gomez. If the latter can be had for a one-year “prove myself” deal, go for it. I believe that Gomez doesn't require a lost draft pick, as he was traded mid-season. If he too gets too expensive or if someone swoops in and offers him a multi-year deal, Fowler is the better bet for something like 4/$56M. If that doesn't work, sign one of the solid players—Aoki, Saunders, Jay—to tide us over until Hermosillo and/or Jones is ready in a couple years. But stay away from Cespedes and the five-year, $25-30M per year contract he is going to try to get.

 

4. Sign a Top-shelf Reliever, and one or two ones with good upside

Cam Bedrosian was easily the best reliever on the club, with Deolis Guerra, Jose Alvarez, Mike Morin, JC Ramirez, and possibly Andrew Bailey showing solid value as middle relievers, but none are irreplaceable. The problem with the Angels bullpen is that there is only one truly good reliever in Bedrosian, at least without Huston Street finding his pre-2016 form. The rest are essentially run-of-the-mill middle relievers; some—Fernando Salas, Cory Rasmus, Greg Mahle, AJ Achter, Jose Valdez, and Bret Oberholtzer—were varying shades of mediocre to terrible. 

 

Going into 2017, Bedrosian is a lock, and presumably Street will be back, although I see him gradually transitioning to a setup role as Bedrosian takes over closer. Guerra has earned a spot on the roster, and Alvarez and Morin—and possibly Bailey or Ramirez--provide decent middle relief depth. What the Angels lack is another reliever with lights-out stuff to pair with Bedrosian. Perhaps this could be Manny Banuelos, who a few years ago used to project as a #3 starter for the Yankees, or Alex Meyer if the Angels sign a starter. 

 

But there are some really good options on the free agent market, including marquee closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, both of whom will likely set records for reliever contracts; some are predicting nine-figures for Chapman (!). There's also Greg Holland of the Royals, who was supplanted as their closer by Wade Davis. Holland was great in 2014-15 but struggled last year and could be a really good buy. Mark Melancon is another top tier closer option but won't come cheaply. There are many other options, but those are the best of the crop and what the Angels really need is someone very good.

 

Recommendation: It is a bit risky spending big money on a reliever, so I'd probably stay away from Chapman and Jansen, and Melancon will also likely be quite expensive, but Holland would be a great option, in addition to someone like Neftali Feliz and bringing Andrew Bailey back. Ramirez and Morin can be stuffed in AAA with Banuelos. The Angels could enter the year with a bullpen of Bedrosian, Holland, Street, Guerra, Alvarez, Bailey, and Feliz. Not bad.

 

5. Sign a Mid-Rotation Starter

Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, and Nolasco are locks; Weaver, Chacin and Meyer are not. It sounds like Weaver won't be tendered a contract, not with his continued decline (his ERA grew for the fifth straight year, finally breaching the 5.00 mark in 2016 and showing no signs of going down, as his 5.62 FIP attests). Chacin makes a decent “sixth man” or mopup guy so could be re-signed, and Meyer could end up as either the fifth starter or transition to a flame-throwing reliever.

 

There is a viable if unlikely scenario in which the Angels have a strong rotation without making a move. In this pipe-dream, health abounds. Richards returns to 2014 form, Shoemaker continues where he left off with before being beaned in the cranium. Skaggs finally finds his health and potential, Nolasco continues his 2016 performance with the Angels, and Meyer finds command and consistency. All of a sudden you have a legit staff ace and four bonafide mid-rotation starters.

 

But it is highly unlikely that everything goes right, and chances are Eppler will at least want to build more depth in case of a Meyer meltdown and/or an injury to one of the others. Probably the choice with the highest floor, but also biggest contract, is Jeremy Hellickson – who is a solid #3-4 type, but not exactly sexy. 37-year old (in March) Rich Hill is a popular mention around these parts after he produced a very sexy 2.12 ERA and ridiculous peripherals (10.52 K rate and 2.69 BB rate) in 20 starts, but chances are other teams are salivating over the chance to snag him on the cheap and thus he won't go cheap. Other possibilities aren't as good: The talented by oft-injured Brett Anderson might be a nice gamble and could probably be had for an affordable one-year contract, the ever-disappointing Andrew Cashner is another buy-low candidate who could bounce back, or don't be surprised if the Red Sox opt out on Clay Buchholz who fits a similar mold. Ivan Nova has a higher floor but lower ceiling than these guys and would likely be another #4-5 type like Nolasco.

 

Recommendation: My personal preference would be to go hard after Hill. If the Angels can get him for something like 3/$45M, then they should do it. He'll be 37 and presents some risk but has few innings on his arm and is the best of the bunch by a long-shot. Unlike Hellickson, if he bombs then it is a shorter sunk investment. Hellickson is tempting but will probably require a Wilson/Weaver-type 5/$80M contract and I'm a bit leery of his 2016 contract year 3.71 ERA performance after three prior years of 5.17, 4.52, 4.62 ERAs. Hellickson is a #4 starter who will be paid as at least a #3.

 

So if Hill doesn't happen, why not take a chance on one of Anderson, Cashner, or Buchholz? All of these guys can probably be had for a “I want to prove myself” one-year deal, so the risk is low. They can compete with Meyer and Banuelos for a rotation spot and, assuming they win it, give the Angels better depth and potential converted power relievers in Meyer and Banuelos.

 

Extra Credit: Upgrade at 3B

One more option worth considering is letting Escobar walk and going after Justin Turner, who has quietly been a very strong performer at third base for the last few years, posting a .275/.339/.493 line with 27 HR and 5.6 fWAR last year for the Dodgers. But Turner, despite being 32, won't come cheaply. 

 

Summary: My Recommendations

- Sign Neil Walker (4/$60M) to play 2B.

- Sign Carlos Gomez on a one-year deal ($15-20M) or Dexter Fowler (4/$56M) to play LF.

- Sign Rich Hill (3/$45M) to start.

- Sign Greg Holland (3/$30M) and Neftali Feliz (2/$15M) to add to the bullpen, plus give Andrew Bailey a one-year contract.

 

2017 Lineup and Pitching Staff

3B Escobar

2B Walker (or Drew at #8 in lineup)

LF Gomez (or Fowler at #1 in lineup)

CF Trout

RF Calhoun

DH Pujols

1B Cron

SS Simmons

C Bandy

 

Rotation: Richards, Shoemaker, Hill, Skaggs, Nolasco (with Banuelos, Meyer and Smith in AAA)

 

Bullpen: Bedrosian, Holland, Street, Bailey, Guerra, Feliz, Alvarez (with Morin and Ramirez in AAA)

 

And yes, I know I added $60M months more of payroll. This after seeing only Wilson and Weaver's combined $40M coming off the books. This would bring them right up to around the luxury tax threshold of last year ($189M), but maybe with a few tweaks the Angels can stay under. But the above team can win 90+ ball games, especially in the Walker variant. It has depth, variation, and would be a lot of fun to watch.

 

And yes, I realize that the above almost certainly won't happen, or at least not all of it. But the goal here was to show how to make a viable Angels contender in 2017. I started with the idea of relatively small tweaks to bring the team up to an 80-85 win level so they would be just a tweak or two and a hot streak away from the division title, but ended up building a much stronger team. My revised view is that just basic health and only small tweaks puts this team back to the 80-85 range, but with some strong moves—like those suggest above—this team could be a legit contender again.

View the full article

 

These are the only issues I see! Otherwise, great read!

- Sign Carlos Gomez on a one-year deal ($15-20M) --- No one is going to give Carlos Gomez 15-20M for a 1 year deal after what he did the last season and a half in Houston.

- Sign Rich Hill (3/$45M) to start. Also, 15M per is a little Rich for a 37 year old Hill also!..... See what I did there?

[Second Base]

I like the work AJ, very detailed. I'm curious to see where we go with regards to our starting pitching. With more time, Meyer should get a handle on his mechanics and control. I don't think this results in ace type of production as his potential suggests, but a dynamic #5. Someone who can go 8 shutout innings and 10 K's in one start and 4 innings and 5 runs the next.

I love the Banuelos signing, though I'm not sure he's an option in relief. His fastball never fully recovered and now operates 90-93. I'd like to see what he does in a handful of starts. Nate Smith falls in that same line of thinking, as does Kipper, O'Grady and McGowin.

We're pretty well stocked in terms of back end starts. But if the opportunity to acquire Hill presents itself, that could be an interesting scenario.

This is jumping the gun, but I think Nolasco will be dealt in July, and should open a spot for another starter.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job AJ.  good stuff. 

I like the idea of Walker or Turner.  Turner would be my choice.  After Eppler's comments in regards to hitters that have fringy power, I don't see us going after Walker because of what the A does to LHers.  

I don't like Hill at 3/45.  I'd rather get someone on a 1yr.  I like Buchholz if his option gets declined, but I don't think it's going to.  Not a believer in Hellickson at all.  FA contracts to those middling starters usually end up pretty bad.  I like Nova but we've got a bunch of guys with questionable health already so it's a tough call.  

Hell no to Gomez.  I'm done with former Ranger wack jobs.  Not sure who else to bring in though.  Such a weak class and I don't see us making a move on Cespedes.  

I'd be cool with Holland and Feliz.  

If we get the right player at 2b or LF, it might give us some flexibility to move escobar for a bullpen piece.  I think Marte is legit enough to where overall production wouldn't suffer but I do think Escobar's value at the top of the order would need to be replaced.  

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job AJ.  good stuff. 

I like the idea of Walker or Turner.  Turner would be my choice.  After Eppler's comments in regards to hitters that have fringy power, I don't see us going after Walker because of what the A does to LHers.  

I don't like Hill at 3/45.  I'd rather get someone on a 1yr.  I like Buchholz if his option gets declined, but I don't think it's going to.  Not a believer in Hellickson at all.  FA contracts to those middling starters usually end up pretty bad.  I like Nova but we've got a bunch of guys with questionable health already so it's a tough call.  

Hell no to Gomez.  I'm done with former Ranger wack jobs.  Not sure who else to bring in though.  Such a weak class and I don't see us making a move on Cespedes.  

I'd be cool with Holland and Feliz.  

If we get the right player at 2b or LF, it might give us some flexibility to move escobar for a bullpen piece.  I think Marte is legit enough to where overall production wouldn't suffer but I do think Escobar's value at the top of the order would need to be replaced.  

Eppler's recent comments really do shed some light as to where we're going.

1. I thought for sure we'd bring back Escobar. This is two years in a row now that he's hit for high average and good OBP. But I think the defense and base running make him expendable.

2. Eppler did say that 25+ HR's translates everywhere, and that he would prefer to avoid the 10-15 HR type because it doesn't translate here. I think what he's going to do is get someone that can reach base and run in LF. 

3. He said defense should be a priority at 2B, and that they'll be more difficult to find.

4. He also said he likes how Marte profiles as an infielder better than OF.

Just a guess, but I think trading Escobar for a speedy LF, putting Cowart at 3B (with Marte), signing Drew for 2B with Pennington/Petit,  and buying low on relievers like Bailey and Holland or Feliz, and a starter like Brett Anderson fits his comments.

[totdprods]

Another option if you decline Escobar's option is it could free up money to take on more salary in a trade or it could enable you to spend on a guy like Saltalamacchia, Hundley, etc.

That would allow you to deal Perez or Bandy for a young 2B, 3B, or LF - guys in the mold of Refsnyder, Dietrich, Wong, etc. off the top of my head. Either someone who can lead off, or sign a free agent to lead off.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

 

These are the only issues I see! Otherwise, great read!

- Sign Carlos Gomez on a one-year deal ($15-20M) --- No one is going to give Carlos Gomez 15-20M for a 1 year deal after what he did the last season and a half in Houston.

- Sign Rich Hill (3/$45M) to start. Also, 15M per is a little Rich for a 37 year old Hill also!..... See what I did there?

I think Gomez gets at least a one year, $15 million contract based upon what he did in Texas over the last month+--.284/.362/.543, 8 HR in 33 games--which looks like he re-found his 2013-14 form. Someone will be willing to take a chance, and Gomez will likely want just a year anyway so that he can prove himself for a multi-year deal next offseason. I think it is a great risk. If he doesn't work out, well, that's some money wasted but even his sub-par Houston performance would be better than what we've had. If he works out he either helps the team to the playoffs and signs elsewhere in the offseason, getting the Angels a draft pick, or is dealt for prospects at the deadline if the Angels are struggling.

Rich Hill was a #1 starter for his 20 starts last year. Someone is going to give him a multi-year deal. Who knows, maybe it will be only two.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Rich Hill was a #1 starter for his 20 starts last year. Someone is going to give him a multi-year deal. Who knows, maybe it will be only two.

Rich is perfect for a team that's already on the forefront of competing that already has a stacked front of the rotation. Someone like the Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, etc. someone that can afford to risk plunking down $30-45m on a wild card ace in the #3-4 spot. If he continues, it's a great deal, if he falters, they aren't screwed because they already had better options ahead of him.

Angels just don't fit that bill. A 37-year old who barely makes 100 IP and battled injury issues all year isn't a solution. We have too many hurting SPs.

[Angelsjunky]

I hear you and would have no problem if they go another route and sign an Anderson or Cashner. What I think they should avoid, however, is investing big money on Hellickson.

I mentioned Hill, however, because I think he has the best chance of giving them a shot at the playoffs. No other available pitcher performed at that level.

[Second Base]

I think it comes down to what the Angels need. Hellickson is a good back end starter, but we have plenty of those. I think if they're going to acquire a starting pitcher, it would be more prudent to invest in a pitcher with more upside in hopes that they give the Angels the middle of the rotation presence they need.

Buccholz, Anderson, Hill all fit this mold.

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, exactly Scotty. As does Cashner. I would also add that Hellickson is a good #4 starter who may be (wrongly) perceived as a good #3 starter, which will lead to him being overpriced.

[greginpsca]

=I don't see the Angels having any chance at getting Turner, as the Dogs want him back. If Escobar is let go, i think Cowart will play 3rd. And Marte will be the new Quinlan, backup 3rd, 1stb, dh, pinch hitter. I see him platooning at 3rd most of the time, with Cowart coming in for defensive purposes late in games. . I think Aybar might be signed to play 2b. I like Petit as backup ss/2b as Petit can actually hit a little bit. And hopefully they can trade Pennington for anything. By letting Escobar go and signing Aybar, the team can save a mil or 2 to be used for pitching.  To me, John Jay seems to be most logical money wise to play LF and bat leadoff. Then, they would have $40 mil available {Weaver and Wilson money} to upgrade pitching. With this lineup the team should be very solid defensively and  as good offensively as last season.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

=I don't see the Angels having any chance at getting Turner, as the Dogs want him back. If Escobar is let go, i think Cowart will play 3rd. And Marte will be the new Quinlan, backup 3rd, 1stb, dh, pinch hitter. I see him platooning at 3rd most of the time, with Cowart coming in for defensive purposes late in games. . I think Aybar might be signed to play 2b. I like Petit as backup ss/2b as Petit can actually hit a little bit. And hopefully they can trade Pennington for anything. By letting Escobar go and signing Aybar, the team can save a mil or 2 to be used for pitching.  To me, John Jay seems to be most logical money wise to play LF and bat leadoff. Then, they would have $40 mil available {Weaver and Wilson money} to upgrade pitching. With this lineup the team should be very solid defensively and  as good offensively as last season.

Ouch. If they address 3B, LF, and 2B with only Cowart, Jay, and Aybar, they better go batshit crazy on pitching - Chapman or Jansen at a minimum. Those moves would put a lot of strain on the offense. 

Now, if they rely on Escobar, Jay, and internally, or Aybar, for 2B that would be a much more tolerable. They'd still be able to target a solid SP or RP or two by going that cheap on bats. One of Fister/Nova and a couple of guys from the Bailey, Feliz, Chamberlain, Chacin, Logan, Tolleson, Benoit mold. It would put us in a position much like this year, where on paper we didn't really have to look like a contender, but still had enough to go for it if things shook right. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think Gomez gets at least a one year, $15 million contract based upon what he did in Texas over the last month+--.284/.362/.543, 8 HR in 33 games--which looks like he re-found his 2013-14 form. Someone will be willing to take a chance, and Gomez will likely want just a year anyway so that he can prove himself for a multi-year deal next offseason. I think it is a great risk. If he doesn't work out, well, that's some money wasted but even his sub-par Houston performance would be better than what we've had. If he works out he either helps the team to the playoffs and signs elsewhere in the offseason, getting the Angels a draft pick, or is dealt for prospects at the deadline if the Angels are struggling.

Rich Hill was a #1 starter for his 20 starts last year. Someone is going to give him a multi-year deal. Who knows, maybe it will be only two.

Dude, Gomez hit 189 for HOUSTON!!!!!! And everyone hits well in Arlington!!!!!! ...... Let's go back to GMJR shall we?...... No one is going to give him 15-20M per! No one......

 

Rich Hill is going to be 37 fricking years OLD! .....  Doesn't matter the amount of innings on the arm he still isn't getting more than 2 with a Team option and it will be in the neighborhood of 8-10M per~

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

20 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job AJ.  good stuff. 

I like the idea of Walker or Turner.  a)Turner would be my choice.  After Eppler's comments in regards to hitters that have fringy power, I don't see us going after Walker because of what the A does to LHers.  

I don't like Hill at 3/45.  I'd rather get someone on a 1yr.  I like Buchholz if his option gets declined, but I don't think it's going to.  Not a believer in Hellickson at all.  FA contracts to those middling starters usually end up pretty bad.  I like Nova but we've got a bunch of guys with questionable health already so it's a tough call.  

Hell no to Gomez.  I'm done with former Ranger wack jobs.  Not sure who else to bring in though.  Such a weak class and I don't see us making a move on Cespedes.  

I'd be cool with c)Holland and Feliz.  

If we get the right player at 2b or LF, it might give us some flexibility to move escobar for a bullpen piece.  I think Marte is legit enough to where overall production wouldn't suffer but I do think Escobar's value at the top of the order would need to be replaced.  

a- Undervalued Ginger right there!!!!! 

b- Not a chance!

C- Good comeback candidate and less expensive than a Chapman.... I wouldn't mind Holland at all. Feliz all I remember is he's had some epic meltdowns.

[totdprods]

Shawn Tolleson may be one to keep an eye on as well.

[Angelsjunky]

41 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Dude, Gomez hit 189 for HOUSTON!!!!!! And everyone hits well in Arlington!!!!!! ...... Let's go back to GMJR shall we?...... No one is going to give him 15-20M per! No one......

 

Rich Hill is going to be 37 fricking years OLD! .....  Doesn't matter the amount of innings on the arm he still isn't getting more than 2 with a Team option and it will be in the neighborhood of 8-10M per~

Which is why Gomez will sign a one-year contract; there is no "per." It is a moderate risk, high reward. Who knows, maybe he talkes $12 million...if I were Eppler I'd be all over that.

Similarly with Hill. Maybe not three years, but certainly more than 8-10M per.

[arch stanton]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Which is why Gomez will sign a one-year contract; there is no "per." It is a moderate risk, high reward. Who knows, maybe he talkes $12 million...if I were Eppler I'd be all over that.

Similarly with Hill. Maybe not three years, but certainly more than 8-10M per.

I disagree on Gomez. I see plenty of risk and not much likelihood of reward. I wouldn't even call him.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

22 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Which is why Gomez will sign a one-year contract; there is no "per." It is a moderate risk, high reward. Who knows, maybe he talkes $12 million...if I were Eppler I'd be all over that.

Similarly with Hill. Maybe not three years, but certainly more than 8-10M per.

I'm just not a fan of a 37 year old starting pitcher feel good story who has had one 100+ inning season in 10 years!... Hill made 6M this last season with the A's and Dodgers. If the Dodgers want to give him 8-10M per fine! He needs to stay in the NL..... Let him go to the Pirates!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

24 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I disagree on Gomez. I see plenty of risk and not much likelihood of reward. I wouldn't even call him.

And he's a Nut job!.......Jose Guillen part 2

[totdprods]

I think it's really hard for the Angels to accept any contracts that have too much risk right now, especially expensive ones. I'm not saying they should avoid all FAs as obviously every free agent contract comes with risk and red flags, but we're just not in a position financially or competitively to roll the dice on the ones who have a higher likelihood of failing hard and expensively. There's a massive difference in the effect of a 1-yr $8m deal for Jon Jay failing and a 5-yr/$125m Cespedes contract failing. We can debate all day the pros and cons and trends of each player, but bottom line, if Cespedes tanks, we're effed, and if Jay tanks, we just cut him and move on with no real harm done. 

[nando714]

Didn't we have rich hill a few years ago while paying the minimum for him. I'd pass on hill the 2nd time around

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Didn't we have rich hill a few years ago while paying the minimum for him. I'd pass on hill the 2nd time around

Had him for two games. His Angel career ERA sits at 'inf'.

[ksangel]

Reading Eppler's comments made me wonder if he would go after Jose Bautista - if Toronto doesn't offer him or if they do offer him a QO and he would reject it since it seemed pretty clear Eppler wants to keep draft picks - on a two year contract and move Calhoun to LF (like Eppler said it's easier to move an OF from left to right or right to left than a 3B to 2B). 

Yes he is 36 but he'd sure give the Angels a more than adequate outfielder for a couple of years and offer good OBP and another legit middle of the order bat.  His defensive ability will probably continue to drop with age but with Trout in CF it would help.  But maybe Bautista is stuck on a longer contract??

Can't see Fowler leaving the Cubs considering they'll be in contention for a number of years.  Why leave such a good situation?  Or Walker leaving the Mets.  They'd be losing one of their top bats and can't afford to do that, especially if they do lose Cespedes.

Reddick seems like a legit RF/LF candidate...the others all have their issues and the Angels need to stop going down that road.

Also wonder if they want to play Marte in the infield more to groom him for 2018 when Escobar will for sure be gone. With Cowart's bat really lagging behind his glove it appears the Angels will need a 3B in 2018.

2B is just a hole for the Angels and potential replacements.  Maybe Eppler can get a young 2B from another team who can defensively play there and see if the bat will come around.  Just not sold on Cowart playing there full time or a platoon like they used after letting Johnny G go. 

And still believe Meyers will be in the bull pen next year especially with Eppler saying he would have to earn a SP slot in spring training.  He's got legit back end of the bull pen stuff and if Eppler wants to sign a couple of FA SP's it would make sense Meyers is now more regarded as a RP.  Plus I'd guess that Eppler never saw a resurgence from Nolasco coming in that trade.