New MLB/Angels Top 30

[Angel Oracle]

Hermosillo has to be on that list.   Middleton is only at #22, despite showing dominance in AA so far?

Guess our farm is stronger than the pundits think.   Yeah, that ain't anything new.

[totdprods]

I'm guessing Hermosillo's absence, as well as some of the other folks we've mentioned, is because they haven't shown this much over the rest of their careers. Need to do this for more than half a season to really seem legitimate. They're doing enough to give me hope though!

[Oz27]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

Hopefully when the Baldoquin Restrictions lift, we don't go blow it again right off the bat. Spend up to our budget for a year or two at least, unless a ridiculous crop of prospects come along and we shell out big money for multiple players.

Many teams have decided, rightly so in my opinion, that the best way to use the new system is to go really really hard one year and just take your penalties for the next two. Repeatedly making mid level deals to take you to your cap isn't the most efficient way. But even worse was signing Baldoquin and doing nothing else. We should have taken that opportunity to sign as many top tier guys as we could, which is also what we should do the next time we can spend.

[Oz27]

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Depends what you mean or consider to be excitement.   

I was excited when we drafted Ryan Vega in 2015, not because he had a profile or was highly thought of in scouting circles but rather because he was all tools and athleticism and very little certainty.   Hermosillo was similarly a guy who had more of a rep for himself as a HS football player than he did baseball when he was drafted.  Pretty sure they were drafted two years apart but I've always lumped them together (Abbott fits in here too to a lesser extent), because they were rarities in the system... high risk, high reward...  there was a question of whether or not they would ever amount to anything but, it was a nice departure from what we had been drafting.  Vega BTW was promoted to Orem last night and while he only went 1-4, he went yard in his first game.

Blumenfeld is another guy that isn't really making a lot of noise yet, but he was someone that didn't fit the usual JD draftee profile -- lots of hit tools, lot's of projection in the power dept, very little certainty.   Kid was drafted as a catcher but has been getting moved to the OF this season -- I doubt he sees much time behind the plate moving forward.  On the surface he seems like a non-entity, someone who couldn't stay at C, and a guy where the numbers aren't really showing us anything yet but he's got Trumbo-ish type power potential -- I haven't looked recently but his twitter handle was basically all pics and vids of him working out and baseball...  the Anti-Hunter Green.   

Anyway -- there are definitely things happening in the system we haven't seen in a while, and while you could argue that every system has guys like Blumenfeld, Vega, etc etc... raw guys who nobody has heard of..  we just really didn't for a few years....   I think that's what Doc and others are getting at when they say there is more beyond the top 30.

Okay, I will concede to you there are more guys worthy of keeping an eye on at the moment. But you're also correct in saying every other team has a whole bunch of interesting guys who are showing flashes of raw talent but probably won't amount to anything. Maybe we didn't for awhile. But for me what is more important is the level of talent at the top. There are only two guys in that top 30 have established themselves as legitimate prospects. Neither is even going to crack the top 100 yet, although Jones might soon if he keeps this up. That is still an historically weak system and I'm struggling to remember a time where a team besides us was this weak. Look beyond those top 2... #3 can't hit, #4 hasn't played yet, #5 has a ceiling as a bottom of the rotation starter. That's still at a really historic level of shit.

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Many teams have decided, rightly so in my opinion, that the best way to use the new system is to go really really hard one year and just take your penalties for the next two. Repeatedly making mid level deals to take you to your cap isn't the most efficient way. But even worse was signing Baldoquin and doing nothing else. We should have taken that opportunity to sign as many top tier guys as we could, which is also what we should do the next time we can spend.

I get that and support the idea of spending like crazy, but I don't know if I would go hog wild the first year we're able. That'd be four years in a five year span where we are limited, and given that our Latin presence is so thin right now (and our money still so tight) I wouldn't expect us to land the best of the best in that one year. I just think we should temper our expectations on what the team will do once the Baldoquin Restictions lift, nor should they be vilified if they play it within their boundaries for the first year or two, unless next year's crop is ridiculously saturated. 

[itsKnoppUitsme]

On 7/28/2016 at 3:54 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Depends what you mean or consider to be excitement.   

I was excited when we drafted Ryan Vega in 2015, not because he had a profile or was highly thought of in scouting circles but rather because he was all tools and athleticism and very little certainty.   Hermosillo was similarly a guy who had more of a rep for himself as a HS football player than he did baseball when he was drafted.  Pretty sure they were drafted two years apart but I've always lumped them together (Abbott fits in here too to a lesser extent), because they were rarities in the system... high risk, high reward...  there was a question of whether or not they would ever amount to anything but, it was a nice departure from what we had been drafting.  Vega BTW was promoted to Orem last night and while he only went 1-4, he went yard in his first game.

Blumenfeld is another guy that isn't really making a lot of noise yet, but he was someone that didn't fit the usual JD draftee profile -- lots of hit tools, lot's of projection in the power dept, very little certainty.   Kid was drafted as a catcher but has been getting moved to the OF this season -- I doubt he sees much time behind the plate moving forward.  On the surface he seems like a non-entity, someone who couldn't stay at C, and a guy where the numbers aren't really showing us anything yet but he's got Trumbo-ish type power potential -- I haven't looked recently but his twitter handle was basically all pics and vids of him working out and baseball...  the Anti-Hunter Green.   

Anyway -- there are definitely things happening in the system we haven't seen in a while, and while you could argue that every system has guys like Blumenfeld, Vega, etc etc... raw guys who nobody has heard of..  we just really didn't for a few years....   I think that's what Doc and others are getting at when they say there is more beyond the top 30.

Glad to see Dalton Blumenfeld get a mention! He is a big strong kid with a helluva work ethic. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do now that he has been moved to the OF!

[Angel Oracle]

If Blumenfeld can play LF, more power to him! 

[John Smith]

Alex Meyer was inserted at #12 on MLB/Angels Top 30

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ana

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, John Smith said:

Alex Meyer was inserted at #12 on MLB/Angels Top 30

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ana

Ouch. That doesn't exactly make me feel better about the deal.

[Second Base]

30 minutes ago, John Smith said:

Alex Meyer was inserted at #12 on MLB/Angels Top 30

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ana

I'm a little higher on Meyer than that, but understand why he wouldn't be ranked very high.  Then again, there' usually quite a bit that MLB.com's list completely ignores in terms of prospects.  It's cool that they get reputable guys to slap their name on the list, but for the most port those guys have either never seen or even heard of any of the Angels prospects.  I prefer a list done by someone that's actually been there and takes an interest in these players.  I do my best at this, but Taylor Blake Ward also does a solid job.  I trust John Sickels particularly over at minorleagueball as far as major outlets. 

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Ouch. That doesn't exactly make me feel better about the deal.

Yeah that's dreadful. Jesus Castillo will have to be top 10, right? In fact you could make a good argument he's now our best prospect outside of Thaiss, Jones and maybe Marsh.

[Second Base]

21 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Yeah that's dreadful. Jesus Castillo will have to be top 10, right? In fact you could make a good argument he's now our best prospect outside of Thaiss, Jones and maybe Marsh.

Castillo is good, but no, he likely isn't top 10, even in our system. Top 20 though...,

[Oz27]

Just now, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Castillo is good, but no, he likely isn't top 10, even in our system. Top 20 though...,

Really? That leaves a whole heap of really lousy prospects (in fact I wouldn't even call some of them 'prospects') in front of him.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

Really? That leaves a whole heap of really lousy prospects (in fact I wouldn't even call some of them 'prospects') in front of him.

Believe it or not, there are some solid young players dwelling within the pits of the Angels minor league system. Put it like this, do your homework on Jaime Barria and Jesus Castillo and then try explaining to me about how I'm wrong here.

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Believe it or not, there are some solid young players dwelling within the pits of the Angels minor league system. Put it like this, do your homework on Jaime Barria and Jesus Castillo and then try explaining to me about how I'm wrong here.

Not sure why the snark is necessary, but Barria has some prospect stock - possibly higher than Castillo. That doesn't change the fact there's more than one guy in the top 10 Castillo should be ranked higher than, including the person MLB.com ranks as the third best prospect in our system.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

Not sure why the snark is necessary, but Barria has some prospect stock - possibly higher than Castillo. That doesn't change the fact there's more than one guy in the top 10 Castillo should be ranked higher than, including the person MLB.com ranks as the third best prospect in our system.

I know you don't want to hear this, in fact most people don't, but Taylor Ward is still a solid prospect.  Everyone came in with these ridiculously stupid high expectations on Taylor that were more fabricated from his draft position and gaudy numbers he put up in a hitter friendly league.  Perhaps if he were taken in the second round where he was projected to go, folks wouldn't be so down on him.  Anyway, Ward does have enough stick to be a major league catcher.  Furthermore, he offers more behind the plate than any catcher in the Angels system or in the Cal League for that matter.  Game calling is something he's still learning, but he's very athletic, quick behind the dish and has a rocket for an arm.  If this kid can establish himself as a leader, he can really control the game via tempo, pitch selection, suppressing the run game and even pitch in by swinging the stick here and there. 

Should he have been a first rounder?  No don't think so, but it's foolish to consider him anything other than a solid prospect right now.

And as for MLB.com's rankings, I don't trust them anyway.  The guys who put their name on this never actually watch the Angels minor leaguers, they trust scouts that get to see them a couple of times.  If you must follow a major publication, go with John Sickels.  Keith Law is a smart guy, but he's too busy watching teams with decent farm systems.  The folks at FanGraphs are improving, but Marc Hulet is crap as a prospect evaluator.  Taylor Blake Ward is a solid option.  And as for myself, my work speaks for itself.  Hit and miss, more miss than hit but that's the nature of this game. 

For what it's worth, I view Castillo in the same general class with Chris Rodriguez, Jaime Barria and Cole Duensing.  They are good prospects.  Not top 10, but still good.