2016 Los Angeles Angels Primer Part V: Second Base

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

Author’s Note - Player data displayed was pulled on September 25th and 26th, 2015. Additionally Grant Green was designated for assignment in late September which means, due to his ability to elect Minor League Free Agency, he has likely seen his last day in an Angels uniform.

The absence of Howie Kendrick was certainly noticed this year. His steady and generally reliable veteran production was missed.

Fortunately, for the Angels, Johnny Giavotella filled in admirably, especially down the stretch, and Andrew Heaney paid immediate dividends in the rotation so it hasn’t been the greater heartache that many thought it would be.

Internally the Angels don’t have one, single, high quality prospect or player to slot in at 2B in 2016.

Players include Johnny Giavotella, Grant Green, Alex Yarbrough, Sherman Johnson, Taylor Featherston, and possibly even Kaleb Cowart and Kyle Kubitza. Each has specific weaknesses and strengths for consideration at the keystone.

The Angels could certainly stand pat here and stick with Giavotella but it seems likely the Angels will reopen the competition in Spring Training for all of the players listed above unless they sign a free agent or trade for another second baseman.

To get a better idea of how these internal options compare let’s use our set of statistical benchmarks starting with ISO:

Here you begin to understand why the Angels stuck with Taylor Featherston the entire season as he has some solid power!

Of course spending an entire year riding the bench coupled with infrequent at-bats will make any player’s ISO dip so the 2015 spike downwards isn’t terribly concerning.

Kubitza and Green also have a consistent history of power, mainly from their ability to smack doubles and the occasional home run on a regular basis.

The remainder of the choices, Giavotella, Cowart, Yarbrough, and Johnson, are not as prolific producing extra base hits but in Kaleb’s case he’s had a rough ride in his Minor League career so there is still some possible upside.

Lack of league average contributions from Giavotella, in the power department, could ultimately be a reason why he might not be our starting 2B in 2016.

To further discriminate the elements of their respective games, let’s look at walk to strikeout ratios:

Here Giavotella, Johnson and, to a lesser degree, Kubitza have consistent histories of elevated walk to strikeout ratios. This may be the strongest discriminator and reason for why Giavotella should start again next season.

The remaining four are tightly packed lower on the graph although Kaleb has rebounded to his 2012 level in 2015. He’s shown a greater ability to take more walks over the last two years.

Finally to round out the discussion let’s look at wRC+:

Here Kubitza, Featherston, Johnson, and Green top the five year leaderboard. Overall Kubitza and Featherston show the most promise out of the group based on the three offensive categories discussed.

The bottom line is that this group of players has few offensive discriminators that seem to point to a real, definitive, potential option.

Fortunately most of them have above average impact in creating runs but who do you choose? Let’s look at the limited information we have on defensive scouting reports.

In terms of defense here are short summaries for each player. Clicking on their names will take you to links that discuss their defensive ability. Please note that not all of the sources are linked here and some of these links had very limited information so it is likely not 100% accurate:

1) Johnny Giavotella: Average range and hands and is able to turn an effective double play at the keystone.

2) Grant Green: Above average arm, fringe average to average range, and average glove at 2B.

3) Kyle Kubitza - Strong arm, average range, and improving glove at 3B. Range could be a concern if he moves to 2B.

4) Kaleb Cowart – Good range, first step, and hands with plus arm at 3B. Keystone would be more demanding but he has the tools to potentially stick.

5) Taylor Featherston – Above average range, arm, and glove at 2B.

6) Alex Yarbrough – Average range and consistent glove.

7) Sherman Johnson – Solid arm, instincts, and range at 2B. Consistently good glove at 3B too.

Out of that group of seven players, Featherston, Yarbrough, Johnson, and perhaps Cowart or Kubitza, if they moved there, would be at the top of a hypothetical keystone defensive list.

The organization asked Kubitza near the end of the season (see link above) to take fielding practice at 2B in part because of a potential 3B logjam but also because if he can be at least average defensively they would very likely consider starting him at the keystone in 2016.

Part of the reasoning is that the average wRC+ for 3B is about 98-99 while the average wRC+ for 2B is about 90-91. Moving to 2B and playing passable defense would make Kyle (or Cowart for that matter) a serious consideration for the starting 2B job. If for any reason he just doesn’t have the range, which is very possible, then he’s much more likely to be a trade chip in the offseason.

Basically, when you look at it, only Taylor has the clear defensive chops to be really good at the position and it seems like the Angels, depending on how this offseason plays out, would prefer having Featherston be the super utility guy now that Green is likely out of the fold.

If there were a battle royal in Spring Training you’d probably put your money on Featherston to earn the job but it really could be anyone’s to win.

Fortunately there are opportunities to upgrade here if the Angels want to spend the money or make a trade.

The free agent market includes names such as Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, and possibly Chase Utley if his option isn’t picked up.

Also the trade market has options that may include players such as Neil Walker, Rob Refsnyder, and Derek Dietrich.

To better understand their potential contributions lets apply the same set of offensive comparisons that we did to the Angels internal options starting with ISO. Please keep the Majors vs. Minors comparison in mind when examining this graph:

Here Dietrich’s calling card of power stands out. Zobrist, Utley, Walker and, to a lesser extent, Refsnyder are also standouts on the graph. If the Angels prefer power, above all else, any of the first four names makes a lot of sense.

It should also be noted that everyone on the graph except Refsnyder has proven this power at the Major League level. The only Angels candidate to do that is Giavotella so consistent, proven production is a big consideration here.

To further discriminate here is their BB/K ratios:

Zobrist is the clear leader in this category with Utley and Refsnyder showing glimpses of comparable numbers. Walker and Murphy are somewhere in between while Dietrich and Kendrick troll the bottom of the graph.

As we said above it’s important to note that Minor League numbers can skew a direct comparison of the graphs.

For instance, in the graph of the internal candidates further up, Giavotella’s 2013 and 2014 BB/K seasons are very strong. The problem is that he spent most of his playing time on the Royals AAA affiliate which is in the offensively-charged Pacific Coast League which will typically inflate any player’s numbers.

Finally let’s look at wRC+:

Clearly Ben Zobrist, Derek Dietrich, and Rob Refsnyder have the upper hand in this graph. The remaining players are all pretty tightly bound, however, so the rest of the group is a pick-your-pleasure adventure.

So the Angels could certainly stand pat here and stick with Johnny Giavotella but there is a real opportunity to improve here if the Angels want to invest the cash.

One free agent in particular stands out and that is Ben Zobrist.

Zobrist started off 2015 with a terrible first half. However he really picked it up in the second half and finished the regular season with approximately 2.1 WAR split primarily between 2B and LF.

Although Ben will be approaching age 35 at the start of next season he has shown a real ability to produce year after year. Other than this year he has consistently produced 5+ WAR over the last 4 years. He also has positional versatility which could prove quite useful for a team like the Angels.

More importantly aggressively going after and acquiring Zobrist would provide the Angels front office with flexibility in the rest of their offseason decision making. Ben can be plugged in at LF, 2B, or even 3B, maintaining their ability to pursue parallel free agent and trade discussions at all three positions if that is the course the front office takes.

It seems likely that in order to sign and acquire Ben, a contract in the 3-4 year and $55MM-80MM range is the probable outcome.

Victor Martinez signed a 4 year, $68MM contract and he was a year older than Zobrist will be when he signs this offseason so the precedent is there. Additionally Ben’s name has already been associated with multiple teams in Hot Stove discussions so he’s sure to be in demand.

The number of years may be too much for the Halos but a player like Zobrist, especially with his potential upside, despite his increasing age, will drive the market to its upper limit.

There is definite risk here but there is also a strong track record of performance that, when combined with the limited-years contract, helps to mitigate some of the danger.

Beyond Ben Zobrist it is pretty thin.

Howie Kendrick will likely be presented with a Qualifying Offer which he may or may not reject although it seems very likely he will explore free agency if the Dodgers don’t try to extend him.

Kendrick will cost a first round draft pick to acquire if the QO is attached making it very probable the Angels will pass on signing him.

However if the Angels have already lost their 1st round pick by signing another free agent with a Qualifying Offer attached it could open the door to additional free agent signings with QO’s attached because losing 2nd and 3rd round selections are not nearly as painful.

Daniel Murphy is so close to Giavotella in total production that it probably isn’t worth the small incremental value upgrade he would provide not to mention he might have a QO attached which would make him an even less appealing option to replace Giavotella.

Utley might be available if the Dodgers don’t want to keep him. If Chase does hit the free agent market he might be an attractive option on a short 2-3 year contract for, perhaps, $15MM-25MM.

Chase is very similar to Zobrist in that he could potentially play 2B, 3B, or LF, making him another attractive candidate to help maintain offseason flexibility in filling out the 25-man roster.

Utley, who will be 37 years old when the 2016 season starts, is only one year removed from a 4.4 WAR season so there is a risk-reward play there.

Otherwise the Angels will have to scour the trade market if Giavotella or one of the others isn’t the answer for them.

Keystone players such as Brian Dozier, Neil Walker, Derek Dietrich, Brandon Phillips, Chris Owings, Martin Prado, or Danny Espinosa could potentially be available in the right deal.

Out of that group Walker is probably the most obtainable candidate and although his defense is average at best his offensive contributions would be worth having on the 2016 Angels squad. The downside with Neil is that he’s in his last year of team control and projects to make about $10MM in 2016.

Additionally the Angels would have to replace Walker’s production next year and his acquisition price might be too high for the Angels taste. Neil would likely cost an acquiring team a little less than what Kendrick brought back in value, i.e. a quality, mid-tier prospect.

Dietrich is also a possibility but the Angels would need to have a platoon partner for him as his splits versus LHP aren’t good. The Marlins were rumored to be shopping him at the trade deadline in 2015 and he can play 2B, 3B, LF, and 1B with significant pop in his bat. Derek has four years of team control remaining and would require a higher quality prospect back in any potential trade.

The Marlins might make Prado available too and he’d be a defensive boost at the keystone but just like Walker he only has one year of team control remaining. Martin is affordable though at $5MM so he’s sure to attract interest if Miami wants to move him. Martin might bring back a young controllable relief prospect if the Marlins move him.

Finally prospects such as Arismendy Alcantara (Cubs AAA prospect), Alex Blandino (Reds AA prospect), Jorge Polanco (Twins AAA), Levi Michael (Twins AA), or Dean Anna (Cardinals AAA prospect) might be possibilities.

Educated Guess – If the Angels decide to spend significant money this offseason this is one potential spot where they’ll do it, going hard after Ben Zobrist by offering a 4 year contract in the $70MM-80MM range. Zobrist is a great fit at three positions of need and is only one year removed from a 5.5 WAR season.

More importantly there is no Qualifying Offer attached, he provides flexibility for how the Angels approach their offseason, he is above average both offensively and defensively, and he will improve the team in the near term during Trout’s controllable years.

It is possible the Angels sign Zobrist to play LF or 3B and let Giavotella continue at 2B or even battle it out for the starting job in Spring Training. However this scenario seems less likely in my opinion.

Outside possibilities, if Zobrist signs elsewhere, include Chase Utley, if his option is bought out, Derek Dietrich, Martin Prado, and Neil Walker.

Author’s Choice – The Angels will sign Ben Zobrist on a 4 year, $75MM contract with a Team Option for an additional $10MM. He will be in high demand this offseason and the aggressive contract with the Team Option will help put the offer over the top to convince him to sign with us.

In the next section we’ll discuss the Shortstop situation.

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[floplag]

Honestly, im far more worried about other holes than i am 2B.   IF we sign Zobrist i hope its to play 3B, not 2B.  

[ettin]

Honestly, im far more worried about other holes than i am 2B. IF we sign Zobrist i hope its to play 3B, not 2B.

3B is an option if the Angels sign Zobrist. Depending on how deep the Angels go or not go with the financials one scenario is signing Zobrist (or Utley or trading for Walker for instance) and allowing all of the younger players and prospects to battle it out at 2B and 3B and whomever loses Zobrist plays there instead.

[Broad Street]

Those graphs would be a lot easier to read without 9 candidates on them. Either way, I'm happy with Johnny G's production. He's clutch too.

[VariousCrap]

The Dodgers supposedly want Zobrist pretty bad.  I think they get him.

[Blarg]

I really don't see Kubitza or Cowart crossing the diamond to effectively learn an entire new position which includes footwork and communication along with situational positioning while adapting to MLB pitching. That would be pretty disasterous.

Featherston had an entire year of development (along with a roster spot) wasted unless you call learning how to travel on a MLB budget important. It wouod be far fetched to believe the kid that was horribly over matched by MLB pitching somehow grabbing the spot in Spring training and I doubt further he is expected to.

So that leaves Giavotella and the $175 million dollar elephant in the room. Payroll and other needs, not wants, are going to dictate Giavotella's fate. The Angels absolutely need a leadoff hitter, Giavotella is not that guy. The Angels absolutely need a left fielder, again that is not Giavotella. So we know what he isn't but what he is covers two needs and that is a seasoned vet to pair with Aybar and at a MLB minimum which facilitates payroll to be directed towards needs. Upping the operating cost of 2nd base by 15x eliminates adding true value at a position of need in left field.

I can see the Angels standing pat on 2nd base.

Edited November 6, 2015 by notti

[ettin]

The Dodgers supposedly want Zobrist pretty bad.  I think they get him.

 

Zobrist will be in high demand. I've seen his name associated with the Yankees, Dodgers, Royals, Astros, and Angels. It won't be easy acquiring him and it will only happen if the Angels spend big.

 

I really don't see Kubitza or Cowart crossing the diamond to effectively learn an entire new position which includes footwork and communication along with situational positioning while adapting to MLB pitching. That would be pretty disasterous.

Featherston had an entire year of development (along with a roster spot) wasted unless you call learning how to travel on a MLB budget important. It wouod be far fetched to believe the kid that was horribly over matched by MLB pitching somehow grabbing the spot in Spring training and I doubt further he is expected to.

So that leaves Giavotella and the $175 million dollar elephant in the room. Payroll and other needs, not wants, are going to dictate Giavotella's fate. The Angels absolutely need a leadoff hitter, Giavotella is not that guy. The Angels absolutely need a left fielder, again that is not Giavotella. So we know what he isn't but what he is covers two needs and that is a seasoned vet to pair with Aybar and at a MLB minimum which facilitates payroll to be directed towards needs. Upping the operating cost of 2nd base by 15x eliminates adding true value at a position of need in left field.

I can see the Angels standing pat on 2nd base.

 

That is a very real and possible outcome Notti and as you said and I will talk about later in the Primer Series payroll freedom will be the primary determination in what course the Angels plot this offseason. If they stay restrained Giavotella will almost certainly stay. If they spend it could go either way. I'll explain my personal view and take on it further when I publish the Luxury Tax Discussion in a couple of weeks. But Notti is correct that the Angels could very easily stand pat in regards to Giavotella at 2B.

[Blarg]

I think they bump their head really hard on the salary cap ceiling trying to make improvements in four positions, left, 3rd, 2nd, backup catcher and still think of bullpen and or starting pitching help. Somewhere they have to say we are covered at a sensible cost/production value and it looks like 2nd base is that slot.

[gotbeer]

Zobrist IMO is not an option for 3B.  In 10 seasons, he has played a total of 8 games at 3B and started 5.  Of all the positions he has played, he has played 3B the least.  And his defensive numbers are all in the negatives for that position.  

[totdprods]

I also don't think Zobrist is realistic. Practically any team could have interest and a position for him. We'd be competing with almost all of baseball. If he had SoCal ties I'd be more interested as the chances would be higher, but I think in the end it would be a waste for the Angels to invest significant time and energy pursuing him.

For someone with as much widespread appeal, the human element needs to be considered here. He will have his choice of opportunities that will pay well and offer him what he seeks.

[ettin]

Zobrist IMO is not an option for 3B.  In 10 seasons, he has played a total of 8 games at 3B and started 5.  Of all the positions he has played, he has played 3B the least.  And his defensive numbers are all in the negatives for that position.  

 

Agreed I find this scenario much less likely. The only way it happens is if the Angels don't spend a lot and they put Cowart, Kubitza, Giavotella, Featherston, et. al. into competition with each other at 3B and 2B and Cowart and Kubitza fail to impress the front office and coaching staff. It is not ideal but Zobrist's versatility would allow the Angels to go this route (and so would someone like Chase Utley or Neil Walker even).

 

I also don't think Zobrist is realistic. Practically any team could have interest and a position for him. We'd be competing with almost all of baseball. If he had SoCal ties I'd be more interested as the chances would be higher, but I think in the end it would be a waste for the Angels to invest significant time and energy pursuing him.

For someone with as much widespread appeal, the human element needs to be considered here. He will have his choice of opportunities that will pay well and offer him what he seeks.

 

Of course he could choose New York because he likes the Yankees for instance and has relatives there. I wouldn't discount the Angels as a premier choice of venue though: We are in Southern California, nice weather, winning team, chance to play with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols? There's a lot to like here!

 

But yeah he is in high demand without a doubt. He is my personal Author's Choice for 2B but I have no doubt that it could easily go the other way and probably will.

[totdprods]

Oh of course, Angels are a great destination and aren't shy from spending - I just think committing too much time pursuing could prevent us from focusing on other, more likely targets (any of the big 4 OFers) and think Zobrist and his ensuing pursuit should be more of a "keep in touch and if it falls in our laps" sort of thing.

Just having flashbacks of the team tunnel-visioning on one target (like Crawford) for so long only to miss out on other opportunities, waiting for an unlikely solution.

[ettin]

Oh of course, Angels are a great destination and aren't shy from spending - I just think committing too much time pursuing could prevent us from focusing on other, more likely targets (any of the big 4 OFers) and think Zobrist and his ensuing pursuit should be more of a "keep in touch and if it falls in our laps" sort of thing.

Just having flashbacks of the team tunnel-visioning on one target (like Crawford) for so long only to miss out on other opportunities, waiting for an unlikely solution.

 

Heyward and Upton will very likely sign before Zobrist does unless for some reason Ben's agent doesn't want to wait before the market develops. Gordon and Zobrist will probably sign around the same time.

 

The big ticket players almost always come off the board first setting the prices and tone for the market place. Many agents understand (and are told beforehand) that some teams will have interest in both a big-ticket player and in middle to lower tier players and the agents will only push their clients to sign when it appears the market might or is beginning to shrink for their clients.

 

With Crawford though we didn't even really get to him in time. We probably expressed interest but weren't aggressive and present early at the meetings. These guys want to sign with teams that really want them to play and court them appropriately. Heck the Dodgers have been courting David Price for over two years.

 

It's like Teixeira's wife saying she wants to be on the East Coast and grabbed Mark's balls and dragged him to the Yankees.

[Second Base]

I'll be closely monitoring how Yarbrough does in AAA this year. He was never without his flaws, but before last year he was the heir apparent. He could hit for average with solid gap power, had above average range, a good glove and good arm. He was coming off an eye opening performance in AA, but then fell flat in AAA. I suspect it was a fluke of a season but we'll find out.

[ettin]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 3m3 minutes ago

Ben Zobrist has a four-year, $80 million offer on the table. The #Mets still considered favorites to ultimately land him.

Even my 4 year/$75MM guess is likely to be off. At this point he's probably out of bounds for the Angels payroll situation unless they decide to go cheaper in the OF>

[Docwaukee]

4/80 for zobrist is too much.  I wouldn't go there. 

 

You can basically add an extra year to the big free agents contract estimates.  Cespedes is going to get 7.  Upton is going to get 8 or maybe even 9.  Heyward might get 11 or even 12.  

 

We can't go to battle with Johnny G.  The only skill he had last year that gave him any value whatsoever is something that isn't typically sustainable.  

[ettin]

Have to think that the Angels will go the trade route for 2B. Starlin Castro, Rob Refsnyder, and Neil Walker seem like real possibilities. Outside chance we might be able to make a deal with the Rangers for one of their middle INF's but that seems more remote to me. Rangers seem to really like Odor (and rightfully so) and Andrus' contract is a sinkhole. Profar doesn't seem to have a home but he is a big injury risk with upside.

[tdawg87]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 3m3 minutes ago Ben Zobrist has a four-year, $80 million offer on the table. The #Mets still considered favorites to ultimately land him. Even my 4 year/$75MM guess is likely to be off. At this point he's probably out of bounds for the Angels payroll situation unless they decide to go cheaper in the OF>

 

1:03pm: A source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that there’s “no way” Zobrist has received such an offer.

[Gil]

Great work as always on these. I really appreciate the in depth work that goes into each one. 

 

One thing that I've never understood about these primers though, why do the graphs compare stats across different levels of the MLB and minor leagues?Isn't comparing Yarbrough's wRC+ at AAA to Sherman Johnson's at AA to Giavotella's in the MLB all on one graph kind of like comparing apples to oranges?

 

It seems like a projection system such as Steamer that projects performance at the MLB level would be a better use. Steamer projects for 2016 that Giavotella will have a wRC+ of 96, Sherman Johnson a wRC+ of 72, and Yarbrough a wRC+ of 63. (That's not to say Steamer doesn't have its own issues). 

 

Anyways, thanks once again for all the time you put into these. 

[ettin]

Great work as always on these. I really appreciate the in depth work that goes into each one.

One thing that I've never understood about these primers though, why do the graphs compare stats across different levels of the MLB and minor leagues?Isn't comparing Yarbrough's wRC+ at AAA to Sherman Johnson's at AA to Giavotella's in the MLB all on one graph kind of like comparing apples to oranges?

It seems like a projection system such as Steamer that projects performance at the MLB level would be a better use. Steamer projects for 2016 that Giavotella will have a wRC+ of 96, Sherman Johnson a wRC+ of 72, and Yarbrough a wRC+ of 63. (That's not to say Steamer doesn't have its own issues).

Anyways, thanks once again for all the time you put into these.

At the end of the 2nd Section of the Primer I did state that you can't compare MLB to Minor League numbers and to keep that comparison in mind when looking at the graphs. Additionally I mentioned it again passing a couple of times in certain sections.

When I started writing the series I picked out those categories as I wanted to include some graphical stuff for the readers. To be honest I didn't put a tremendous amount of thought into the categories and I eventually settled on ISO, BB/K, and wRC+ because I thought they collectively captured a hitter's output.

However you did suggest Steamer and perhaps next year I might use a more established projection system if the data is fairly up to date and provides a good picture for the readers. I'll keep that in mind Gil it is a possibility for next year's Primer Series!

Also thanks for the kind words this takes a lot more effort than people realize. I do it more for my own edification but I figured since I was looking up the info anyway I might as well write about it. Going through all the payroll numbers and player information really gives you better insight into the teams needs and problem areas so it is a fun exercise. Writing it is the hard part!

[NorCal Halo]

Graph of Zobrist's interest in Angels.

[Gil]

At the end of the 2nd Section of the Primer I did state that you can't compare MLB to Minor League numbers and to keep that comparison in mind when looking at the graphs. Additionally I mentioned it again passing a couple of times in certain sections.

When I started writing the series I picked out those categories as I wanted to include some graphical stuff for the readers. To be honest I didn't put a tremendous amount of thought into the categories and I eventually settled on ISO, BB/K, and wRC+ because I thought they collectively captured a hitter's output.

However you did suggest Steamer and perhaps next year I might use a more established projection system if the data is fairly up to date and provides a good picture for the readers. I'll keep that in mind Gil it is a possibility for next year's Primer Series!

Also thanks for the kind words this takes a lot more effort than people realize. I do it more for my own edification but I figured since I was looking up the info anyway I might as well write about it. Going through all the payroll numbers and player information really gives you better insight into the teams needs and problem areas so it is a fun exercise. Writing it is the hard part!

Sorry, I must have missed those parts about the MLB/minor league comparisons. Thanks once again for all the hard work. 

[ettin]

Sorry, I must have missed those parts about the MLB/minor league comparisons. Thanks once again for all the hard work.

Don't be sorry it was buried in the 3500 page novel.

[ettin]

Interesting 2B data point on a FanGraphs filter I ran: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

Look at lines 12 and 13 for Zobrist and Utley. One will get paid close to $20MM while the other is getting $7MM.

[NorCal Halo]

And at number 9 in WAR with a 9.4 is number 47.