Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

BTW if I can get 5-1 on Imperative in the big cap I'm all in!

[Homebrewer]

Other expected San Felipe runners—Uncle Lino, who came in second to Mor Spirit last time out in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. III), and Exaggerator who was runner-up to Nyquist in the San Vicente (gr. II)—worked in earlier sessions Saturday. Uncle Lino ran five furlongs in :59 3/5 for trainer Gary Sherlock and Exaggerator covered the same distance in 1:00 2/5 for trainer Keith Desormeaux.

[Adam]

It was pretty cool. I was at a conference in LA Friday night talking to Brian (Gary's son). He was giving me all kinds of information. 

 

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK

 

Apparently, Uncle Lino is 2 inches taller and 80 LBs heavier than when he ran in the Bob Lewis. They are going to try and take him off the pace. He pressed it last time and was super game. They're ideally going to have him sit 5-7 off the pace this time and expect him to win legitimately. 

 

I really like Mor Spirit though. I'll probably use those two. 

[gotbeer]

I believe.  Uncle Lino has a famous father, Uncle Mo.  Who also happens to be the dad of one of the Kentucky Derby favorites, Nyquist. 

[Tank]

It was pretty cool. I was at a conference in LA Friday night talking to Brian (Gary's son). He was giving me all kinds of information. 

 

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK

 

Apparently, Uncle Lino is 2 inches taller and 80 LBs heavier than when he ran in the Bob Lewis. They are going to try and take him off the pace. He pressed it last time and was super game. They're ideally going to have him sit 5-7 off the pace this time and expect him to win legitimately. 

 

I really like Mor Spirit though. I'll probably use those two. 

 

so basically uncle lino has been on the subway diet with mike trout.

 

what a porker. enjoy the glue factory, you hag!

[Adam]

Gimme an email addy if you want SA's Saturday PPs

[Homebrewer]

Who needs PP's when we have insider/wiseguy information?

I'm getting a loan on my car title, selling my antique fishing reel collection, and borrowing money from all my friends...

and putting it all on Uncle Lino.

Thanks dude! 

[gotbeer]

Odds to the two big SA races tomorrow.

 

Race 7 San Felipe

 

1 Uncle Lino (KY) 3/C L F H Perez 120 G Sherlock 8/1

2 Danzing Candy (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 120 C W Sise, Jr. 4/1

3 Mor Spirit (PA) 3/R L G L Stevens 124 B Baffert 2/1

4 Cupid (KY) 3/C L M Garcia 120 B Baffert 12/1

5 I Will Score (KY) 3/C L R Bejarano 120 J Hollendorfer 10/1

6 Smokey Image (CA) 3/C L V Espinoza 120 C Gaines 4/1

7 Exaggerator (KY) 3/C L K J Desormeaux 122 J K Desormeaux 5/2

 

Race 10 Big Cap

1 Point Piper (KY) 6/H L D Van Dyke 115 J Hollendorfer 12/1

2 Melatonin (KY) 5/G L J Talamo 114 D E Hofmans 20/1

3 Donworth (KY) 4/C L M Gutierrez 117 D F O'Neill 3/1

4 General a Rod (KY) 5/H L R Bejarano 116 T A Pletcher 4/1

5 Effinex (NY) 5/H L M E Smith 123 J A Jerkens 2/1

6 Cyrus Alexander (KY) 4/C L M Garcia 115 J Hollendorfer 20/1

7 Hard Aces (KY) 6/H L A Lezcano 118 J W Sadler 12/1

8 Imperative (KY) 6/G L S Gonzalez 120 R Baltas 3/1

9 Class Leader (KY) 5/H L K J Desormeaux 114 J W Sadler 30/1

Edited March 11, 2016 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Looking at the form Adam sent.  Man the Felipe looks like a pick em.  I really think anyone can win this one.  Should be a fun race to watch.

 

For the Big Cap.  Some things stand out.

 

General A Rod.  Million Dollar race, and Velazquez doesn't follow the horse out?  That's a warning sign to me.  And it's not like he's on a favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He's on a 12-1. 

 

Impreative.  Mike Smith gets off him to go to Effinex. 

 

IMO, Point Piper, Melatonin, Cyrus Alexander, Hard Aces, and Class Leader would have to run career races to win.  So that leaves Imperative, Effinex, and Donworth.  Effinex, the layoff is what worries me the most.  So my pick may be Donworth.  Second off a game layoff.  And less question marks.  But it wouldn't surprise me if it's a three horse race. 

[Homebrewer]

Not a Pletcher fan. I hope you're right and A Rod gets crushed.
Is it going to rain down there tomorrow?
 (If the weather here, where it is coming down in buckets and looks to continue all day and night and into the morning, is any indication, I'd say it is going to be a very off track)
 
 
GENERAL A ROD freaked in the slop last time out at Gulfstream Park in allowance company and makes the re-rise in class for Todd Pletcher. This is an enigmatic horse to figure out and given the road trip and level of competition, I'm more inclined to pass. He does seem to be better early in the campaign as he's shown at 3, 4 and now 5, so perhaps you have to strike the match when he's on his game.

 

Constructing a tri part-wheel using these three

Effinex

Donworth

Imperative

 

including Cyrus Alexander underneath (slow pace helps him sneak in and improve the tri payoff?)

 

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

Nope.  It's raining right now, but it's supposed to stop tonight.  Should be clear tomorrow.

[gotbeer]

Wow, that's a rarity.  They canceled races 7-9 at Santa Anita today due to weather.  It's AO's fault. 

[Adam]

ARod has beat nothing. Pletchers doesn't ship to CA well. Total toss.

I want to toss effinex. East coast grinder off the bench on a speed favoring track. Smith will have him forwarded placed though like he did in the BC. I want to like Imperative but he's going to take too much money. I think Cyrus Alexander is super talented. He's just so green and goofy. If he ever runs in a straight line he can be something else. I may take a small shot with him. Donworth is the buzz horse. I think I'll pass.

So at the end of the day I will probably use Cyrus and Effinex in different spots

Edited March 12, 2016 by Adam

[Adam]

In the San Felipe I've been so against Exaggerator but looking through everything again if Nyquist didn't exist... He could have a stellar record.

I'm afraid of overthinking this race and having it be a duel between Mor Spirit and Exaggerator and at 8.5F I think Exaggerator is the better bet. And I think the public is going to go nuts and make Smokey Image 7-2 when he should be 15-1. Bafferts gets hammered. Exaggerator could be 3-1. Seems like real value to me

[Adam]

9-Magical Mystery in the 6th is the most likely winner on the day. Read the clocker reports. He out finished Hoppirtunity in his last work. This horse is legit

[Adam]

Just finished handicapping the card. Doesn't look like a whole ton a live price horses but there are a lot of good races!

I won't make it for first post so I didn't even look at the race. Initial selections:

R2 - 5-Entrechat (5-1) third off the layoff. Should fire. I imagine will take some money. 6-pearl de vere and 8-Varioose Stairway are logical contenders.

R3 - Bayonet (5-2) has won 4 in a row and beats this field in speed and form. 10-Individual Design (9-2) has a shot. I prefer him to 6-Abets Abet

R4 - Crimson and Good was off slow and ran a ton. A better start and he could beat this group pretty easily. 1-Angel Lane could save ground and get a nice rail run

R5 - 9-Magical Mystery looks really tough. Single for me in any multis. 12-Giant Expectations should pick up the pieces.

R6 - 1-Om is the class of the field. Interesting pace scenario. You've got 6 speed/stalk types with the exact same style and similar figs. Might set up for Bal A Bali who figures to get the best pace scenario. If Bolo and Om get hammered I may go there.

R7 - Exaggerator and Mor Spirit. The others will have to do something really special here.

R8 - 3-Sunset Arch is a very expensive first time starter for a trainer who does very well first out. Great pedigree. 15-1 on the ML. If I make a win bet it's on this one. In multis I'll spread. 12-Decisive Triumph and 11-Sixes look solid. I'm against 7-Beach Patrol. Raced against nothing at Fair Grounds and will be the heavyish favorite.

R9 - looks like a 3 horse race. My top pick will be Wild Dude but I think you have to use Kobes Back and Calculator too. I think Calculator is going to be another favorite who goes overbet

R10 - I've got a sneaky feeling that Hollendorfer has got Cyrus Alexander figured out. If he does he could pay boxcars. I'll also use Effinex and Imperative and maybe Donworth, but I feel like he's the sucker horse of the card.

R11 - Pacific Heat looks really tough in here. 5-Kiss N Scat and 1-Lady Valeur look like the other contenders. I'll probably single Pacific Heat with most everyone else though.

[Homebrewer]

R10 - I've got a sneaky feeling that Hollendorfer has got Cyrus Alexander figured out. If he does he could pay boxcars. I'll also use Effinex and Imperative and maybe Donworth, but I feel like he's the sucker horse of the card.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

That's my 4 horse tri box. (see my post above)

I hope we're right about Cyrus, since that was my sneaker too.

I was going to juggle up a part-wheel, but decided what the hell. He will be overlooked on the tote and if the pace sets up for him, as it does on paper, maybe he can pull off the upset. It'll be a nice payday.

Looking at the late P4. There are 2 turf races in that sequence so I want to see how the footing looks. They've already taken race 2 off turf.

Might be able to get a price home if it's soft.

[Adam]

My son woke up and immediately threw up. I'm posted at home today. Got my plays in.

If either Outwork, Cyrus Alexander or Sunset Arch win today I'm buying beers

[Homebrewer]

Race 3 gut feel bet 5 ex box 3-8-10

[Adam]

I had the 10 singled in double and pick 3. Oh well

[Homebrewer]

down 30

5 10 2

 

Ok  in the 5th, 7 horse is Turkish bred?

Don't see that often...it's holding it's own on the tote, too.

 Hollendorfer/Desuermeaux connex.

HMMM

 

Wacha got for info on that one Adam?

Edited March 12, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

Race 5

6-7-14

2 ex box

On breeding, tote, and visuals..

Edited March 12, 2016 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

And the Turkish horse wins it...7-1

[Homebrewer]

7 horse

Seventh Sense

Goes off @ 7-1

Anyone could have picked that one.

 

 

[Adam]

I love Bal A Bali here in the 6th but he should be 5-1 not the favorite