Horse Racing

[Adam]

I can't get past the favorite this year unfortunately. He's just too good. 19 horse field (after the scratches) so anything can happen and I would not be a surprised to see another horse win. That said I think California Chrome should win provided he doesn't get hassled by other horses. He's got a good post. 

 

I'll play a $20 Exacta for my primary play

 

5 - California Chrome

 

over

 

6 - Samraat 

Edited May 2, 2014 by Adam

[stevestevens]

I do not follow it enough to know any of the horses.......but I never miss the derby or any of the triple crown races.  Love watching the horses.  Takes me back to the days of going to the races at Los Alimitos as a kid.  My dad would let me put a buck on each race.  

 

Good times.

[xboom28x]

I will fall asleep during the 4 hours of pre-race coverage. When I wake up and it's still pre-race, I will be watching something else (likely an NBA Game 7). Then, if a time out or commercial hits right, I will flip back to the Derby.

 

Basically if I catch the horses parading down the front stretch, I will leave it on. Otherwise, I will wait for the Preakness and root for the Derby winner.

[stevestevens]

DVR is your friend when watching the derby coverage.  I never watch it live.  It is already set to record and I will breeze through the thing on Saturday night.

[Adam]

I'll be in Vegas. Be nice to make a score. 

[Tank]

in my best impression of adam at beerfest a few years ago:

 

 

COME ON, 7!!!!!

[gotbeer]

Was at Pomona OTB for todays Oaks.  Will be at Santa Anita tomorrow for the Derby party.  

 

But, my bets for tomorrow got covered.  race 10 Churchill.  For some reason I played a 1 with a 7 with a 4/3 trifecta for $2 total.  Paid $545.  I am and idoit and didn't spend another $2 since I was losing my ass off on a super.  That would have paid me $2391.  /sigh.  

 

And I agree with Adam.  Chrome looks too good.  Although I do have a future bet on Ride on Curlin at 100-1.  

 

Easy money is the race 10/11 double.  Wise Dan with California Chrome.  Come to think of it.  I might put $10 on a pick 3, race 9/10/11 Sahara Sky with Wise Dan with California Chrome.  Heck, go a pick 4 in races 8/9/10/11 and go All with Sahara Sky with Wise Dan with California Chrome.  

 

So since I said easy money, it won't come in.  

[gotbeer]

Looking at it more.  

 

Pick 6.  Taking a Guess here.  But races 6-11

Race 6 Effie Trinket and Centre Court

Race 7 Scherzinger and Iotopa maybe midnight lucky

Race 8 Cleburn ??

Race 9 Sahara Sky

Race 10 Wise Dan

Race 11 California Chrome

 

Adam, any ideas on race 6-8?

[gotbeer]

So the Wise Dan/California Chrome double got me even.

 

But just before the derby.  Noticed something on the exacta will pays.  No matter what horse you bet on, if you put California Chrome on top with any horse, the minimum it would pay was $21.  Well, 18 other horses, so that was a no brainer.  So I told anyone in my area.  If you like California Chrome.  Go California Chrome/*.  

 

Boy did I look like a geneoos.  The exacta paid $170 on a $18 bet.  

 

Off to Pimlico for Chrome.  We might have a triple crown Cal bred on our hands.  

[stevestevens]

Uneventful race. California chrome had it the entire way.

[Homebrewer]

I wait all year to build trifectas for the derby. I have hit some nice ones over the years.

Unfortunately Commanding Curve was one of my toss horses. Had just one win, and his usual jockey chose to ride another horse...blah blah blah..

Figured Chrome, with a dream trip, would crush...but how often does a perfect trip happen in the derby?

That said, I still keyed Chrome in a lot of scenarios, but Curve was not part of my thinking in any of those.

I was still thrilled for Chrome, his local, down to earth connections..and his story. 8k dam, born in Coalinga, kept at Los Al...whats not to love about that? I've liked Victor Espinosa since he was a bug boy too. 

I'll be watching and rooting him home in the next 2 legs, but he wont be betable odds for me. Have to wait for the next breeders cup to go bombs away again.

Love horse racing!

[Adam]

I only bet the Derby. I keyed the 5 everywhere on top. 17 was a clear toss horse for me also. Bummer!

Great horse though. Have to think he's almost a lock for the next leg. Belmont will be tough and I'd probably bet against him.

[Adam]

3-5 on the ML for the Preakness. Definitely not based on his likelihood to win the race. But, everyone will be pulling for Chrome to head to the Belmont with a chance. 

 

I think he's the most likely winner in the Preakness, but I'd probably put him around 2-1 or 5-2. Coming back 2 weeks is always tough. Super Saver (not nearly the horse, relative to the competition) absolutely flatlined in the Preakness. 

 

I really like 1-Dynamic Impact (12-1) and 5-Bayern (10-1) in this race along with Chrome. 

 

I'll probably box these 3 in an exacta. 

[Lou]

So the Wise Dan/California Chrome double got me even.

 

But just before the derby.  Noticed something on the exacta will pays.  No matter what horse you bet on, if you put California Chrome on top with any horse, the minimum it would pay was $21.  Well, 18 other horses, so that was a no brainer.  So I told anyone in my area.  If you like California Chrome.  Go California Chrome/*.  

 

Boy did I look like a geneoos.  The exacta paid $170 on a $18 bet.  

 

Off to Pimlico for Chrome.  We might have a triple crown Cal bred on our hands.  

 

just saw this, got

 

this is exactly what my buddy and i did for $4 each  ($72 wager)

 

nice $680 payout

[gotbeer]

preakness will definitely be interesting.  My buddy is going to do a */Calfiornia Chrome this run.  I'll see what the board looks like on the chrome on top exacta's.  But my guess is, it won't be anything like the derby.  I think if a Chrome/lowest odd horse pays in the $5-6 range, I'll do a Chrome/* again.  

 

Anyone have any thoughts on the Black Eyed Susan?  I'm thinking of going a 1-Joint Return 15/1, 5-Euphrosyne 4/1 with 3-California Chrome 3/5 as my Preakness double.

[Tank]

preakness will definitely be interesting.  My buddy is going to do a */Calfiornia Chrome this run.  I'll see what the board looks like on the chrome on top exacta's.  But my guess is, it won't be anything like the derby.  I think if a Chrome/lowest odd horse pays in the $5-6 range, I'll do a Chrome/* again.  

 

Anyone have any thoughts on the Black Eyed Susan?  I'm thinking of going a 1-Joint Return 15/1, 5-Euphrosyne 4/1 with 3-California Chrome 3/5 as my Preakness double.

 

i know this will surprise you, but i don't understand a single thing you said in this post.

 

good luck. i hope you win.

[Adam]

preakness will definitely be interesting.  My buddy is going to do a */Calfiornia Chrome this run.  I'll see what the board looks like on the chrome on top exacta's.  But my guess is, it won't be anything like the derby.  I think if a Chrome/lowest odd horse pays in the $5-6 range, I'll do a Chrome/* again.  

 

Anyone have any thoughts on the Black Eyed Susan?  I'm thinking of going a 1-Joint Return 15/1, 5-Euphrosyne 4/1 with 3-California Chrome 3/5 as my Preakness double.

 

You don't think you can eliminate anyone in the Preakness? I'd drop 6, 7, 8, 9 and double whatever you were going to bet on */3 or 3/*

Edited May 15, 2014 by Adam

[Adam]

Check that. The 8 has a shot with the added rest, though the pace is likely to be too fast

[gotbeer]

My buddy just IM'd me.   California Chrome has a throat ailment, but will race.  

[gotbeer]

California Chrome treated for throat blister

[gotbeer]

Hmm.  That's odd.  The Preakness double this year is the Pimlico Special/Preakness instead of the Black Eyed Susan.  

[Blarg]

Two pages and no one has even mentioned Miguel Cabrera. Odd.

[gotbeer]

gnar.

 

Churchill Downs wants money back

 

boxing commanding curve.  And oddly, in order to make the amount, it would only have to have been a $336 bet.

[Lou]

Yeah,  I'd give the money back. 

[Tank]

a black eyed susan sounds like something that should be in the urban dictionary.