Horse Racing

[Homebrewer]

2014 Santa Lucia Stakes, April 20.

 

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/race-replay-2014-santa-lucia-stakes-beholders-4-year-old-debut/

 

Work at Belmont 6-2

 

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/workout-beholder-6214/?VideoCategoryId=0

Edited June 6, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

My "lock" for the under-card tomorrow is Beholder in the Ogden Phipps (7th)

This filly has been pointed to this race all year, is making only her 2nd start of the year, 2 time eclipse award winner, 9-13 lifetime, 4 race win streak, getting better and better as she fills out... and if that isn't enough there are the Mandella-Stevens connections.

Don't see her getting beat.

She's my best single of the day...

 

I'll be building a P4 in races 4-7 using the DRF ticketmaker.

If you guys haven't used it, it is a great free tool for building exotics.

 

http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

 

Yeah. I think a 5-6 exacta in that race is as likely as any ice cold exacta will get. 

[Adam]

My "lock" for the under-card tomorrow is Beholder in the Ogden Phipps (7th)

This filly has been pointed to this race all year, is making only her 2nd start of the year, 2 time eclipse award winner, 9-13 lifetime, 4 race win streak, getting better and better as she fills out... and if that isn't enough there are the Mandella-Stevens connections.

Don't see her getting beat.

She's my best single of the day...

 

I'll be building a P4 in races 4-7 using the DRF ticketmaker.

If you guys haven't used it, it is a great free tool for building exotics.

 

http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

 

Ticketmaker is great. I just don't have a budget or the time to invest into tomorrow's card unfortunately.

 

HB, GB - Share your tickets here! 

[Adam]

Blast... Wouldn't let me put in a Pick 4 ticket for tomorrow. Only race 11 was live. 

 

No pick 4 ticket for me. But you guys should play it. Send me a thank you card.

 

HB, you're golden. Putting it in the mail today. Meanwhile, I'm going with a $0.50 Tri - 2,6 / 2,11 / 2, 4, 6, 11 ($3)

[Tank]

GB, thanks for the PPs

 

I am going to play a $0.50 pick 4 for races 8-11

 

Race 8: 6-Stephanie's Kitten (4-1 *3rd Choice on M/L) (1 for 1 at Belmont; 4 for 5 at Distance; 2nd off layoff)

Race 9: 1-Palace Malice (8-5), 5-Moreno (10-1) (2 for 2 at Belmont; Cutback in distance a +), 10-Clearly Now (10-1) (1 for 2 at Belmont ; wants more than 7 F)

Race 10: 6-Seek Again (3-1) (2 Starts in USA, both Grade 1s - 1 Win, 1 Second to Wise Dan, after a bad start)

Race 11: 2-California Chrome (3-5), 4-Commanding Curve (15-1), 5-Ride On Curlin (12-1), 6-Matuszak (30-1), 11-Tonalist (8-1)

 

$7.50

 

so how much would you win if this works out for you?

[Homebrewer]

No P4 with race 7 included so going with a pick 3 races 6-7-8 because races 6 and 8 look so wide open.

Race 6 with no Untappable I think sets up for a longshot. If My Miss Sophia falters, this as anyone's race.

I'm including her, but expecting a longer horse to step up in a field of 13...so here goes..

 

      1 1 Fashion Plate (KY) 3/F L G L. Stevens 121 S Callaghan 12/1 2 2 House Rules (KY) 3/F L A O. Solis 115 H Allen Jerkens 12/1 3 3 Fiftyshadesofgold (TX) 3/F L M E. Smith 121 W Bret Calhoun 8/1 7 7 Unbridled Forever (KY) 3/F L J Rosario 117 D Stewart 10/1 8 8 My Miss Sophia (KY) 3/F L J Castellano 121 T A. Pletcher 6/5 9 9 Artemis Agrotera (NY) 3/F L J L. Ortiz 121 M E. Hushion 5/1

With

 

5 5 Beholder (KY) 4/F L G L. Stevens 123 R E. Mandella 7/5

 

with

 

1 1 Ready Signal (KY) 5/M L E S. Prado 113 A Tarrant 30/1 4 4 Somali Lemonade (KY) 5/M L L Saez 117 M R. Matz 8/1 7 7 Unlimited Budget (FL) 4/F L R Napravnik 121 T A. Pletcher 20/1 9 9 Discreet Marq (NY) 4/F L I Ortiz, Jr. 121 C Clement 5/2

 

  10 10 Better Lucky (KY) 5/M L J Rosario 121 T Albertrani 3/1

 

 

Yes, I took a stand against Stephenie's Kitten in favor of some prices..

Bombs away baby!

 

1-2-3-7-8-9

5

1-4-7-9-10

 

 

$1 P3....30.00 ticket

[Adam]

so how much would you win if this works out for you?

 

 

It really depends on which horses come in. I've got a number of combinations. 

 

It could pay anywhere from $40.00 to $1000

 

I would estimate a $200.00 payoff, assuming one LS comes in

[Homebrewer]

The Met Mile (race 9) is pretty interesting.

People are going to bet Palace Malice (last year's Belmont winner) down so far, that it is another race that begs for a longshot.

Being on the rail puts Malice behind the 8ball, another great reason to look for an upsetter.

I have always been a fan of Goldencents. Saw him run as a 2yo at SA. Won the BC mile last year.

Just the fact that the connections thought enough of him to ship him back there for this race is enough for me...and Mike Smith knows him well.

.

He is sitting @10-1 in the morning line, and if he goes off at 6-1 or better, I have to take a shot with him.

 

Exacta and Tri with him on top to..

Palace Malice

Normandy Invasion

Clearly Now

Shakin' it Up

 

5EX

4 with 1/9/10/13

$20.00

 

2TRI

4 with 1/9/10/13

$24

Edited June 6, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

The Met Mile (race 9) is pretty interesting.

People are going to bet Palice Malice (last year's Belmont winner) down so far, that it is another race that begs for a longshot.

Being on the rail puts Malice behind the 8ball, another great reason to look for an upsetter.

I have always been a fan of Goldencents. Saw him run as a 2yo at SA. Won the BC mile last year.

Just the fact that the connections thought enough of him to ship him back there for this race is enough for me...and Mike Smith knows him well.

.

He is sitting @10-1 in the morning line, and if he goes off at 6-1 or better, I have to take a shot with him.

 

Exacta and Tri with him on top to..

Palace Malice

Normandy Invasion

Clearly Now

Shakin' it Up

 

The rail is really the big issue for me. Short priced horse with his style on the rail is a tough sell. And, yeah, I'd guess 4-5 at PT

[Homebrewer]

The rail is really the big issue for me. Short priced horse with his style on the rail is a tough sell. And, yeah, I'd guess 4-5 at PT

Too short when you can make a case for so many other horses.

Even Central Banker has a shot, but had to keep my ticket reasonable.

I have a gut feeling about Goldencents, but any of the above mentioned horses have a great shot at this one.

[Adam]

Here are my winners for the entire card:

 

1. 9-Jimmy Colors

2. 7-Legend

3. 3-Micromanage **

4. 9-Positive Side

5. 10-Kobe's Back

6. 3-Fiftyshadesofgold

7. 5-Beholder

8. 6-Stephanie's Kitten**

9. 10-Clearly Now

10. 6-Seek Again **

11. 2-California Chrome (I'm rooting for him)

12. 12-Mr. Jenney

13. 14-Dighton

 

 

**I'd bet these to win

Edited June 6, 2014 by Adam

[gotbeer]

Man Goldencents.  Have lost a lot of money with him.  At times, he shows he is an unbeatable horse.  Then he turns around and throws airball after airball.  That layoff is scaring me off of him.  So me not betting on him means he's a lock.

[Adam]

Yeah, I'm not fan either

[Adam]

The closer we get the more I think CC is in a bad spot. Either the 11 takes em all the way around or the race falls apart in the stretch and a stampeded of closers take him. 

[Homebrewer]

Man Goldencents.  Have lost a lot of money with him.  At times, he shows he is an unbeatable horse.  Then he turns around and throws airball after airball.  That layoff is scaring me off of him.  So me not betting on him means he's a lock.

LOL...

You know who the last horse I felt that way about was?

Mucho Macho Man.

 

I've not lost money with Goldencents. Bet him in his maiden win on a day when I just happened to ge coming from up North, hit traffic on the 210, and turned into Santa Anita to kill some time.

I know if I don't bet a horse that I just fell into knowing like that...it would haunt me like MMM does right now.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

Yeah, I know what you mean.  MMM was my pick for the Breeders.  I bet him, but not as heavily as I should have.  Then he got smoked by Game on Dude in the Big Cap.  Only for Game on to get smoked in the Charlestown race.  Which was good for me, because I bet Imperitive.  

 

Horse racing is funny that way.  

[Homebrewer]

"Horse racing is funny that way."

 

That's the truth..

 

I'm afraid his odds are just going to be too good to pass up.

If he burns my money, then at least it will be the 1st time, and not good money after bad.

His works are solid and plenty. Guess we'll find out if he has any heart to go with his good looks.

Sometimes they grow up when they grow up..

Edited June 7, 2014 by Homebrewer

[2002_halos_II]

Are ya'll going to Del Mar for satellite betting or betting online?

 

I made some picks just for grins

Quinella race 11   horses 2/11

[gotbeer]

I'm going to Santa Anita.

 

Oh, and was looking over my sheets.  And this horse popped up.

 

race 10.  #2 Hey Leroy  12-1 odds.  2014 10/4/5.  On the Turf 11/5/5.  

[Adam]

No one is beating the 6 in the 10th

[Adam]

Nice exotic price horse tho

[Adam]

You guys remember Milwaukee Brew? That horse killed me

[Homebrewer]

You guys remember Milwaukee Brew? That horse killed me

Used to see him in breeding lines a lot..

Won a Big Cap if I remember...

[Homebrewer]

I'm going to Santa Anita.

 

Oh, and was looking over my sheets.  And this horse popped up.

 

race 10.  #2 Hey Leroy  12-1 odds.  2014 10/4/5.  On the Turf 11/5/5.  

Thought that if I managed to hit my P3, I'd play my hunch trifectas in the 9th, and spend some time looking over the 10th..(for something to do until the 11th)   good betting race.

 

Maybe a 4 horse tri box?

This one looks likely..

Santa Anita should be fun tomorrow.

Edited June 7, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

Track at Belmont looks pretty fair (not favoring either speed or closers so far). Rail looks like it might be a little deep though, riders are keeping off the rail on the turns. Weather is excellent.