Horse Racing

[Adam]

saw that. so gross. 

[Tank]

There is an official inquiry from the stewards.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

There is an official inquiry from the stewards.

 

And the stewards you are speaking of aren't of the racing variety.  They are the guys looking to make stew out of the possum.

[gotbeer]

California Chrome's Humble Beginnings Are Focal Point of Triple Crown Journey

 

So if this article is correct.  It went from a $6 million offer before the Santa Anita Derby.  To $15 million now.

 

It's to the point now, that if Chrome wins the triple, I'd be disappointed if the owners sold him.  

[Adam]

The Belmont is a bitch. I'll be pulling for him, but I don't think he's going to win. That is a loooooooooooooooong stretch run. I predict he'll be loose down the stretch but get caught with 1/16 or less to go. 

[Adam]

Post #2, 3-5 on the M/L

 

I'm throwing a $20 on the longest shot on the board. Mike Smith again?

[Homebrewer]

Not that posts matter all that much at a mile and 1/2...but 1-2-3 have the highest win%.

2 keeps him off the rail in case he gets attacked from the outside after the break, and he doesn't have to angle in to get inside to save ground.

#2 is perfect IMO

All systems go!

 

Can't bet this race... but the under-card is promising to be very attractive.

 

 

2014 Belmont Stakes post positions (and odds)

1. Medal Count (20-1)

2. California Chrome (3-5)

3. Matterhorn (30-1)

4. Commanding Curve (15-1)

5. Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6. Matuszak (30-1)

7. Samraat (20-1)

8. Commissioner (20-1)

9. Wicked Strong (6-1)

10. General a Rod (20-1)

11. Tonalist (8-1)

Edited June 4, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

Chrome will probably try to take them gate to wire. If he can run 1/4 in 24+ and 1/2 in 48+ that will be his best bet

[Homebrewer]

The Belmont is a bitch. I'll be pulling for him, but I don't think he's going to win. That is a loooooooooooooooong stretch run. I predict he'll be loose down the stretch but get caught with 1/16 or less to go. 

Don't see it Adam, and I've made some serious money with that angle in this race.

I just don't see this horse being run down if he shakes out 4-5 lengths.

That is why I won't bet this one. This will be one to watch.

[Adam]

I'll be rooting for him too. Beyer wrote a decent article on the Belmont today. 

 

1 1/2 is just such a freaky distance. It makes handicapping the race difficult. I'll throw $2 on Chrome for a keepsake and $20 on the longest shot on the board. 

[Homebrewer]

Chrome will probably try to take them gate to wire. If he can run 1/4 in 24+ and 1/2 in 48+ that will be his best bet

I think if he sits clean until the 8th pole, he wins...wherever that is. Someone will go faster than 48 for the half.

[Homebrewer]

I'll be rooting for him too. Beyer wrote a decent article on the Belmont today. 

 

1 1/2 is just such a freaky distance. It makes handicapping the race difficult. I'll throw $2 on Chrome for a keepsake and $20 on the longest shot on the board. 

If I was going to be at a track where I could keep a win ticket I'd bet it.

Express bet just doesn't give me those things.

[Adam]

HB, check your PM

[Homebrewer]

My most memorable Belmont:

1998 I was ALL OVER Victory Gallup, and was in a betting bar in Cabo.

I had a good morning and built up a nice bankroll heading into the big race.

Decided to go for broke with mostly house money, not cover myself, and bet the race Victory Gallup-Real Quiet 1-2 .

Don't know if my heart would take that these days

 

$200 W on VG. (paid 11.00)

 

$ 200 exacta with Real Quiet underneath ($17.00+)

 

and a $10 Tri with VG-Real Quiet and most of the field. ($275)

 

Every once in a while I will go back and find a replay of that race, just to re-live it.

Don't remember much about the rest of that day... other than I didn't get robbed or arrested..lol.

 

Edit: I started that day with $100.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

I've never had a monster track day. Been close. Alive to a couple grand in pick 4s heading into the final leg. I've had a number of 300-500 dollar days

[gotbeer]

Someone sent me the sat drf pp's.  So if you want, send me a pm.  

 

Also.

 

California Chrome doing well

 

Something not in the workout reports.

 

 

The son of Lucky Pulpit went four furlongs in a sharp :47.69 seconds Saturday under regular rider Victor Espinoza, and galloped out monstrously. He was caught in :59.93 seconds for five furlongs by NYRA clockers, 1:12.95 for six, and 1:26.28 for seven over a tightly packed Belmont oval.

 

[Homebrewer]

I've never had a monster track day. Been close. Alive to a couple grand in pick 4s heading into the final leg. I've had a number of 300-500 dollar days

I've been alive to the P6 in the last race twice, have yet to score. I've never bet more than $24 on a P6.

My first big day was a $100 ex box of Ferdinand/Alisheba in the big cap back in the 80's.

It paid 30.00+ . They still talk about that race and that payoff.

 

Thanks for the offer of the Chrome tote ticket. I already have the frame for it, and am clearing a place on the man cave wall.

[Adam]

Del Mar's big fields and competitive races have always produced juicy pick 4 payouts. I think a lot of that has had to do with the synthetic surface though. The purses are just too big for connections to skip the meet. You end up with top quality dirt horses not firing on the synthetic. The switch back to dirt will be interesting. 

 

I budget multi-race plays based on expected payouts. Granted, it is completely subjective but I try and guess the likely minimum payout and go from there. I think the pick 3 is the best bet in horse racing, when you have a fair single (3-1 or better) and semi-wide open races in the other 2 legs. 

 

For a P6 I agree. Even with a $600 budget, it is extremely difficult to hit. I need 3 singles to consider it. 

[Homebrewer]

With the rolling pick 3's at almost every venue now, agreed that is probably the best bet in racing. Especially with TVG being cued into pick 4's almost exclusively. When I have a rare day to sit down and handicap and follow a day of racing, I'll typically make win bets to finance pick 3's.

Del Mar is always tricky. I usually won't play Del Mar until the third week of the meet (happy to hear they have added weeks there in the fall) Just to let things settle, see the biases, etc. The last 2 weeks have always been best for me, since it is a "horses for courses" meet. I really like the fact that the tote means so little there, with the bigger crowds of mostly uneducated bettors, there is always a chance of big pays in the horizontals.

I've found Today's Racing Digest to be a great tool there, especially in the later parts of the meet.

The fact that it is maybe the nicest, and most fun, track in the country doesn't hurt either.

Someday I want to go to Saratoga just to see how it compares.

[Homebrewer]

Don Zimmer was a big racing fan. Speaking of Del Mar, I used to see him there at least once or twice a season when I went down there often (before the OTB days)

There were quite a few "Zim" horses named after him over the years.

 

He and Arnie Harris (long time WGN producer for Cubs baseball) would be there whenever the Cubs were in town back in the day..

Edited June 5, 2014 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

My horses to bet against.  In other words.  The horses I'll be betting on.

 

Race 1 - 2 Bernardo 3/1

Race 2 - 7 Legend 3/1

Race 3 - 4 Cat Burglar 5/2

Race 4 - 10 Marchman 3/1

Race 5 - 1 Bayern 5/1 and 11 Social Inclusion 7/5

Race 6 - 8 My Miss Sophia 6/5

Race 7 - 1 Close Hatches 5/2 and 5 Beholder 7/5 and 6 Princess of Sylmar 9/5

Race 8 - 4 Somali Lemonade 8/1 and 6 Stehanie's Kitten 4/1 with 9 discreet Marq 5/2

Race 9 - 1 Palace Malice 8/5

Race 10 - 3 Rookie Sensation 12/1 and 4 Grandeur 5/1

Race 11 - 2 California Chrome 3/5

Race 12 - 1 Cheyenne Nation 12/1

Race 13 - 8 Pazoini 3/1 and 12 Quick Money  15/1

 

And for the Belmont stakes will be playing a 2 with 5, 9, 11 with 5, 9, 11, 7, 10 super  Might throw a 7 in place slot.  Then going a 2 with 5, 7 exacta and tri and a 2 with 5, 7 with 5, 7 with 9, 10 super.

 

There you have it.  A bunch of dead money on my part.

[Adam]

GB, thanks for the PPs

 

I am going to play a $0.50 pick 4 for races 8-11

 

Race 8: 6-Stephanie's Kitten (4-1 *3rd Choice on M/L) (1 for 1 at Belmont; 4 for 5 at Distance; 2nd off layoff)

Race 9: 1-Palace Malice (8-5), 5-Moreno (10-1) (2 for 2 at Belmont; Cutback in distance a +), 10-Clearly Now (10-1) (1 for 2 at Belmont ; wants more than 7 F)

Race 10: 6-Seek Again (3-1) (2 Starts in USA, both Grade 1s - 1 Win, 1 Second to Wise Dan, after a bad start)

Race 11: 2-California Chrome (3-5), 4-Commanding Curve (15-1), 5-Ride On Curlin (12-1), 6-Matuszak (30-1), 11-Tonalist (8-1)

 

$7.50

[gotbeer]

Like like what you are saying in the 10th race.  Might have to add him in

[Adam]

Like like what you are saying in the 10th race.  Might have to add him 

 

I would be surprised if he goes off at 3-1. I'd guess 8-5

[Homebrewer]

My "lock" for the under-card tomorrow is Beholder in the Ogden Phipps (7th)

This filly has been pointed to this race all year, is making only her 2nd start of the year, 2 time eclipse award winner, 9-13 lifetime, 4 race win streak, getting better and better as she fills out... and if that isn't enough there are the Mandella-Stevens connections.

Don't see her getting beat.

She's my best single of the day...

 

I'll be building a P4 in races 4-7 using the DRF ticketmaker.

If you guys haven't used it, it is a great free tool for building exotics.

 

http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

Edited June 6, 2014 by Homebrewer