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The Official 2024 Draft Thread


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On 5/29/2024 at 3:48 PM, totdprods said:

Eh, at a quick glance it doesn’t look very different.

Too early to judge last 3-4 years, but if we look at 2000-2020 or so..

8th pick: 

  • Great (1): Lindor (44 WAR)
  • Good (4): Freeland (17 WAR), Leake (16), Maholm (12), Jung (3 WAR, probably gonna be good)
  • Okay (4): Quantrill (8), Stubbs (8), Beckham (6), DeShields (5)
  • Bad (6): Haseley, Carson Fulmer, Hunter Dozier, Appel, Moore, VanBenSchoten (all had just a WAR around replacement or negative)
  • Didn’t reach MLB (5)

45th pick:

  • Great (1): Story (30 WAR)
  • Good (1): Lowrie (16 WAR)
  • Okay (2): Gorzelanny (5), Jackson (3)
  • Bad (6): Hjelle, Howard, Bowen, Belfiore, Price, Brignac
  • Didn’t reach (10) 

Ky Bush was the 45th pick.

76th pick:

  • Great (1): Giancarlo Stanton (44 WAR)
  • Good (1): Brian Anderson (10)
  • Okay (3): James McCann (8), Nick Hundley (8), Chad Bettis (3)
  • Bad (6): Campbell, Clarke, Beck, Murphy, Hamilton, Majewski
  • Didn’t reach (9)

83rd pick:

  • Great (1?): Sean Murphy at 12, probably on pace for 20-30+
  • Good (1): Adam Lind (12)
  • Okay (1): Micah Owings (3)
  • Bad (6): Lipcius, Seabold, Williams, Murphy, Olmos, Bates
  • Didn’t reach (11)

A couple things are pretty consistent…

5% chance you get a really good, if not great player with each of those picks. This was true across all four of those slots (Murphy is a bit of a stretch, but if we drafted another Sean Murphy I don’t think anyone would complain).

Roughly 15% chance you get someone who has a decent but unremarkable career.

30% chance the pick is at best replacement level, this was true across all four slots.

50% chance that guy never plays in the bigs for the latter three (only about 33% for the #8 overall pick).

Aside from the #8 pick making the majors more frequently and producing a few more decent majors, there was really no difference in what you get picking #45, #76, or #83. It is worth noting though that both Stanton and Story were picks out of HS.

The Rockies picked Tyler Anderson ahead of Story at #20, and signed for probably about slot ($1.5m) while Story signed for $900k. Stanton was taken after the Marlins took Matt Dominguez with their first pick, both look like they signed in line with those around them.

Murphy was picked by the Athletics after they selected AJ Puk and Logan Shore, both of whom look they they were at or a bit above-slot.

I don’t think it really matters much across those four picks. Odds are about the same.

Thanks for putting this together.  Must have took you some time and it's good stuff.  Appreciate it.

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On 5/29/2024 at 4:48 PM, totdprods said:

Eh, at a quick glance it doesn’t look very different.

Too early to judge last 3-4 years, but if we look at 2000-2020 or so..

8th pick: 

  • Great (1): Lindor (44 WAR)
  • Good (4): Freeland (17 WAR), Leake (16), Maholm (12), Jung (3 WAR, probably gonna be good)
  • Okay (4): Quantrill (8), Stubbs (8), Beckham (6), DeShields (5)
  • Bad (6): Haseley, Carson Fulmer, Hunter Dozier, Appel, Moore, VanBenSchoten (all had just a WAR around replacement or negative)
  • Didn’t reach MLB (5)

45th pick:

  • Great (1): Story (30 WAR)
  • Good (1): Lowrie (16 WAR)
  • Okay (2): Gorzelanny (5), Jackson (3)
  • Bad (6): Hjelle, Howard, Bowen, Belfiore, Price, Brignac
  • Didn’t reach (10) 

Ky Bush was the 45th pick.

76th pick:

  • Great (1): Giancarlo Stanton (44 WAR)
  • Good (1): Brian Anderson (10)
  • Okay (3): James McCann (8), Nick Hundley (8), Chad Bettis (3)
  • Bad (6): Campbell, Clarke, Beck, Murphy, Hamilton, Majewski
  • Didn’t reach (9)

83rd pick:

  • Great (1?): Sean Murphy at 12, probably on pace for 20-30+
  • Good (1): Adam Lind (12)
  • Okay (1): Micah Owings (3)
  • Bad (6): Lipcius, Seabold, Williams, Murphy, Olmos, Bates
  • Didn’t reach (11)

A couple things are pretty consistent…

5% chance you get a really good, if not great player with each of those picks. This was true across all four of those slots (Murphy is a bit of a stretch, but if we drafted another Sean Murphy I don’t think anyone would complain).

Roughly 15% chance you get someone who has a decent but unremarkable career.

30% chance the pick is at best replacement level, this was true across all four slots.

50% chance that guy never plays in the bigs for the latter three (only about 33% for the #8 overall pick).

Aside from the #8 pick making the majors more frequently and producing a few more decent majors, there was really no difference in what you get picking #45, #76, or #83. It is worth noting though that both Stanton and Story were picks out of HS.

The Rockies picked Tyler Anderson ahead of Story at #20, and signed for probably about slot ($1.5m) while Story signed for $900k. Stanton was taken after the Marlins took Matt Dominguez with their first pick, both look like they signed in line with those around them.

Murphy was picked by the Athletics after they selected AJ Puk and Logan Shore, both of whom look they they were at or a bit above-slot.

I don’t think it really matters much across those four picks. Odds are about the same.

You didn't have to go this hard. But you did. 

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On 5/29/2024 at 1:48 PM, totdprods said:

Eh, at a quick glance it doesn’t look very different.

Too early to judge last 3-4 years, but if we look at 2000-2020 or so..

8th pick: 

  • Great (1): Lindor (44 WAR)
  • Good (4): Freeland (17 WAR), Leake (16), Maholm (12), Jung (3 WAR, probably gonna be good)
  • Okay (4): Quantrill (8), Stubbs (8), Beckham (6), DeShields (5)
  • Bad (6): Haseley, Carson Fulmer, Hunter Dozier, Appel, Moore, VanBenSchoten (all had just a WAR around replacement or negative)
  • Didn’t reach MLB (5)

45th pick:

  • Great (1): Story (30 WAR)
  • Good (1): Lowrie (16 WAR)
  • Okay (2): Gorzelanny (5), Jackson (3)
  • Bad (6): Hjelle, Howard, Bowen, Belfiore, Price, Brignac
  • Didn’t reach (10) 

Ky Bush was the 45th pick.

76th pick:

  • Great (1): Giancarlo Stanton (44 WAR)
  • Good (1): Brian Anderson (10)
  • Okay (3): James McCann (8), Nick Hundley (8), Chad Bettis (3)
  • Bad (6): Campbell, Clarke, Beck, Murphy, Hamilton, Majewski
  • Didn’t reach (9)

83rd pick:

  • Great (1?): Sean Murphy at 12, probably on pace for 20-30+
  • Good (1): Adam Lind (12)
  • Okay (1): Micah Owings (3)
  • Bad (6): Lipcius, Seabold, Williams, Murphy, Olmos, Bates
  • Didn’t reach (11)

A couple things are pretty consistent…

5% chance you get a really good, if not great player with each of those picks. This was true across all four of those slots (Murphy is a bit of a stretch, but if we drafted another Sean Murphy I don’t think anyone would complain).

Roughly 15% chance you get someone who has a decent but unremarkable career.

30% chance the pick is at best replacement level, this was true across all four slots.

50% chance that guy never plays in the bigs for the latter three (only about 33% for the #8 overall pick).

Aside from the #8 pick making the majors more frequently and producing a few more decent majors, there was really no difference in what you get picking #45, #76, or #83. It is worth noting though that both Stanton and Story were picks out of HS.

The Rockies picked Tyler Anderson ahead of Story at #20, and signed for probably about slot ($1.5m) while Story signed for $900k. Stanton was taken after the Marlins took Matt Dominguez with their first pick, both look like they signed in line with those around them.

Murphy was picked by the Athletics after they selected AJ Puk and Logan Shore, both of whom look they they were at or a bit above-slot.

I don’t think it really matters much across those four picks. Odds are about the same.

This is an awesome post. I think the judgement/categorization meter is maybe a little subjective but I generally agree with assessments and the research is incredible.

For me the thing that sticks out is that the "great" players are really incredible.

  • Francisco Lindor -- Elite combo of bat, speed, and defense at premier defensive position SS. Got the superstar contract.
  • Trevory Story -- Elite combo of bat, speed, and defense at premier defensive position SS. Injury riddled, but got the superstar contract.
  • Giancarlo Stanton -- solidly in the running for most elite power slugger in the word. Injury riddled, but got the superstar contract. 
  • Sean Murphy -- arguably the best power hitting catcher in the entire league. Got traded for top prospects and then signed to long term extension.

The actual results of drafting are scattered but picking #8 in itself is pretty sweet. Don't you have a better chance at an elite player like the above if only 7 other prospects are off the board?

If I have that pick I'm shooting for someone elite like those top guys. I wouldn't mind at all if they take a high school guy. I just pray that this strategy of rushing low ceiling players to the majors is over because we need a Lindor way more than we need a Schanuel and if you don't take the risk, then you'll always fall short.

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On 5/29/2024 at 10:48 AM, totdprods said:

Never ever bad to have a top catching prospect. Tremendously value in trades, hard to develop, usually able to move to another position if need be…

I’m old enough to remember the last time they had a top catching prospect and used him as trade currency for 6 starts of a 6.89 ERA

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On 6/4/2024 at 10:15 AM, jsnpritchett said:

I'm biased, since he went to my old high school, but I've now decided I want the Angels to draft Conrad Cason.  Two-way player who's committed to Mississippi State, but can probably be signed away.  Doesn't turn 18 until August.  Touches 97-98 and also has a great changeup.

https://www.mlb.com/prospe

On 6/4/2024 at 10:15 AM, jsnpritchett said:

I'm biased, since he went to my old high school, but I've now decided I want the Angels to draft Conrad Cason.  Two-way player who's committed to Mississippi State, but can probably be signed away.  Doesn't turn 18 until August.  Touches 97-98 and also has a great changeup.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/conrad-cason-815359

 

cts/draft/conrad-cason-815359

 

Looks good. Since he's ranked #99 I wonder if the Angels can nab him in the second or third round. I know rankings don't matter and teams don't really care where an amateur is ranked by nerds, but it would be nice if the Angels actually drafted a talented HS'er rather than a player in the college ranks that is closest to the big leagues. 

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55 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Looks good. Since he's ranked #99 I wonder if the Angels can nab him in the second or third round. I know rankings don't matter and teams don't really care where an amateurs are ranked by nerds, but it would be nice if the Angels actually drafted a talented HS'er rather than a player who in the college ranks that is closest to the big leagues. 

I’d do this:

  • #8: college bat (at/under-slot)
  • #45: college arm
  • #76: HS arm/bat
  • #83: HS arm/bat

We’re rebuilding the farm and need to distribute the type of players we get, and I still think taking someone at/under-slot with first pick will give us flexibility to nab some pseudo-1st round talent later on. Whatever process they’ve used to get college bats in the first round (Neto, Schanuel) and HS arms the last couple drafts seem to be working (Dana, Kent, Madden) better than college arms so I’d tend to prioritize that process and type of selection this time around.

Not as worried about position or even ceiling, we just really need to start building a good farm. 

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3 hours ago, totdprods said:

I’d do this:

  • #8: college bat (at/under-slot)
  • #45: college arm
  • #76: HS arm/bat
  • #83: HS arm/bat

We’re rebuilding the farm and need to distribute the type of players we get, and I still think taking someone at/under-slot with first pick will give us flexibility to nab some pseudo-1st round talent later on. Whatever process they’ve used to get college bats in the first round (Neto, Schanuel) and HS arms the last couple drafts seem to be working (Dana, Kent, Madden) better than college arms so I’d tend to prioritize that process and type of selection this time around.

Not as worried about position or even ceiling, we just really need to start building a good farm. 

Just can’t repeat drafting someone in the first round that is taken at least 15 slots higher than projected (Schanuel).   So far, that hasn’t worked (low .600s OPS so far in 2024).

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18 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Just can’t repeat drafting someone in the first round that is taken at least 15 slots higher than projected (Schanuel).   So far, that hasn’t worked (low .600s OPS so far in 2024).

I dunno, that seems pretty good for a guy who went straight to bigs essentially. Schanuel has his faults but I don’t think it can be ruled a bad pick so far.

Would be cool if some of our overslot guys from 2023 draft started showing this year too. 

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The latest mock from June 6 shows the Halos taking Tibbs 8 spots under slot.   Certainly is better than taking Schanuel 15 spots under slot.

I don’t know, unless they trade Ward and Tibbs plays LF.  

The bat plays (solid Cape Cod batting and monster college batting).

Arm rates as a little above average, but maybe not enough for RF, although playing there the entire 2024 season.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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12 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

The latest mock from June 6 shows the Halos taking Tibbs 8 spots under slot.   Certainly is better than taking Schanuel 15 spots under slot.

I don’t know, unless they trade Ward and Tibbs plays LF.  

The bat plays (solid Cape Cod batting and monster college batting).

Arm rates as a little above average, but maybe not enough for RF, although playing there the entire 2024 season.

And we can say "They call me Mr. Tibbs" when he hits a game winning homer or something!

Loved that movie as Poitier and Steigers both did tremendous acting performances....

~ArkyAngelsFan~

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For the first 3 picks, these are the guys I would be fine taking;

8th Pick: 

             1. Anyone in the top 8, Guys that I have seen ranged at 8 and also at 1. 

45th pick:

            1. Ryan Waldschmidt, honesty he might not be available at this pick. 

            2. Santucci: looking at  a middle of the rotation upside 

            3. Ryan Johson; Interesting  RHP with his size and plus-plus slider. Could have some hidden upside.

             4. jared Thomas

75th Pick 

              1. Ethan Anderson

              2. Ryan Forcucci 

               3. JD Dix  

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I thought this was noteworthy:

“Similar to the first pick and the ones following, a lot of discount deals may not come at the price cut it normally would with a bigger group of tiers in the first round. 

The deal-cutting options are probably going to save the club around $750K to $1M, which is significant away from the first handful of picks but may not be enough to deter them away from what are considered the top tier college players.”

Furthers my belief that they should just go BPA at 8 and not try and cut a deal.

Edited by BTH
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On 6/14/2024 at 8:16 AM, Dtwncbad said:

The article went straight into tier talk.  Let’s not be surprised if Swordsman comes out with mock draft tiers, with this one in tier one.

Tiers are the future.  Everyone gets it except some hardliners here. 
 

Hop on board.  We are a happy bus!

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