The overall picture

[tdawg87]

So, this series sucked. The bullpen sucked. The situational hitting sucked. The defense sucked. The umpires sucked. Everything sucked. It was an absolute clusterfuck of a series. Literally 0 things went the Angels' way. I will say though, that Texas is red hot right now and I would not be surprised if they're in the playoff race come September. So I don't think we got swept by a "shitty team".

However, we still have the 3rd best record in the AL (tied with TB), and are only one game behind Houston. Not to mention, the Angels still have the 3rd best run differential in THE MAJORS. And if you told me we'd be 24-16 through the first 40 games, before the season started, I'd be in my bunk.

This was the first time the Angels have lost 3 straight games. And it won't be the last. That happens to every team. Hell the Dodgers dropped like 9 straight games last year. I look at it like this: The Angels get blown out 15-2 in the last game of a series. It leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but they still won 2 out of 3.

Oh, and despite the complete meltdown by the pitching staff, they're 4th in the AL in team ERA. The bullpen ERA dropped to 11th in the AL, but it's 3.72, which would typically be in the top 5 or so. 11 teams have a BP ERA under 4, which is kind of ridiculous. But a few good games will see them jump up in the rankings. I'm not terribly worried about that. Bullpen ERA is a fickle stat.

We're on pace for 98 wins. That's enough to win the division, or at least guarantee a playoff spot.

There are definitely concerns right now, particularly the bullpen, but I think things will trend back towards where they were a week ago. It won't be as shutdown as it was, but it will be middle of the pack. The rotation will continue to be a strength. 

Ultimately it will come down to health. If they continue to stay healthy, they'll make the playoffs. The offense is good enough to carry them there.

Edited May 19, 2022 by tdawg87

[Tferreri]

Of all the disappointing things that happened in the series, the Bullpen not throwing strikes is the most frustrating.  I don't have the stats to back me up, but it seemed like everybody was 1-0, 2-1, 3-1.. you simply will not win by constantly battling uphill in late inning counts.  Tepera has been doing this all season and has somewhat gotten away with it.  Throw F-in strikes, let them hit it.

[UndertheHalo]

We aren’t talking enough about what this man is doing 

[UndertheHalo]

Also, yes it’s one series.  If they bounce back here over the weekend then who cares.  All good. 

[DMVol]

I don't think we are a 98 win team....better than the last few years, may challenge for a wild card spot but nowhere near a 98 win team.  I am frequently wrong so take heart.....

[Chuck]

 

[tdawg87]

13 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

We aren’t talking enough about what this man is doing 

On pace for a 3 WAR season. His hitting is picking up lately so hopefully he can get his average up to .260 or so. Would end up closer to 4 if that's the case.

Not ideal, but not the complete disaster some think it is. His OPS+ is 119. 

[UndertheHalo]

20 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

On pace for a 3 WAR season. His hitting is picking up lately so hopefully he can get his average up to .260 or so. Would end up closer to 4 if that's the case.

Not ideal, but not the complete disaster some think it is. His OPS+ is 119. 

Yep and I think he’s warming up.  He’s on a positive trajectory imo. 

[failos]

I’d rather see the bullpen implode early on instead of late into the season. They need a break, tbh.

[tdawg87]

Just now, failos said:

I’d rather see the bullpen implode early on instead of late into the season. They need a break, tbh.

I think Maddon needs to give a longer leash to the starters. Like pulling Detmers the other night. 

If they're completely shitting the bed like Syndergaard did, then yeah get them off the mound, but Detmers wasn't pitching terribly and I think he could have easily gone another inning. He pulls the starters too quickly and leaves the relievers in too long. It's frustrating.

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, failos said:

I’d rather see the bullpen implode early on instead of late into the season. They need a break, tbh.

I don’t think they’ve been over used, relative to how bullpens are used now.  I haven’t looked that up, but that’s the sense I have based on watching the team all the time.  They’ve got some guys they need better results from.  Iglesias needs to get right.  Tepera also, needs some more consistency.  The good news is that these are guys that should be fixable.  But it’s pretty obvious they’ll need to mix and match with some guys  internally and possibly look at outside the organization when the time comes for that.  That’s not really a surprise tho.  We all knew they’d probably need more pitching.  I’m looking forward to seeing Buttrey hopefully make his way up to the club soon. 

[UndertheHalo]

Ya pulling Detmers at 60 pitches.  I don’t know about that.  I feel like that’s probably a GM office and staff game plan  more than Joe being big brained.  A lot of teams are doing it. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[Chuck]

35 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Maddon needs to give a longer leash to the starters. Like pulling Detmers the other night. 

If they're completely shitting the bed like Syndergaard did, then yeah get them off the mound, but Detmers wasn't pitching terribly and I think he could have easily gone another inning. He pulls the starters too quickly and leaves the relievers in too long. It's frustrating.

%

[Angelsjunky]

A few days ago they were on a 105-win pace. That is not sustainable - the team is good, but not that good. As I've said a bunch of times, I think my pre-season prediction of 91-71 is about right, plus or minus. But I'm optimistic enough about what I've seen that I think they're more likely to win 90-95 than 85-89.

And here's a fun stat: Trout (2.7), Ward (2.6),and Ohtani (1.9) are 2nd, 3rd, and 10th in fWAR. Each of them has a better WAR than any player on 22 other teams.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Maddon needs to give a longer leash to the starters. Like pulling Detmers the other night. 

If they're completely shitting the bed like Syndergaard did, then yeah get them off the mound, but Detmers wasn't pitching terribly and I think he could have easily gone another inning. He pulls the starters too quickly and leaves the relievers in too long. It's frustrating.

It's a mixed bag for sure but I think some are overstating his pull happy tendencies.   I think MLB as a whole has adopted the whole XX number of times through the lineup BS.  With as much info as they have available these days i'd sort of hope teams could find a way to measure the quality of contact for hitters in real time to help a team decide whether the SP is seeing his stuff get torched more as the game goes on .vs automatically going to the pen after seeing the lineup a couple times.

[Tank]

we probably weren't as good as our 24-13 suggested; likewise, we aren't as bad as this three game sweep by the rangers suggests.

they will always need to adjust as the season wears on, like all good teams do. 

i like where they are this year. 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

On pace for a 3 WAR season. His hitting is picking up lately so hopefully he can get his average up to .260 or so. Would end up closer to 4 if that's the case.

Not ideal, but not the complete disaster some think it is. His OPS+ is 119. 

if he can just stay healthy, it would be huge to have him play like this for the whole season.

[Angelsjunky]

Even with the slow start, I'd be surprised if Rendon doesn't finish with a .270+ BA and 4+ WAR.

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Even with the slow start, I'd be surprised if Rendon doesn't finish with a .270+ BA and 4+ WAR.

.263 BABIP. Lowest of his career. Even if it normalizes a little bit it will make a big difference.

[tdawg87]

58 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's a mixed bag for sure but I think some are overstating his pull happy tendencies.   I think MLB as a whole has adopted the whole XX number of times through the lineup BS.  With as much info as they have available these days i'd sort of hope teams could find a way to measure the quality of contact for hitters in real time to help a team decide whether the SP is seeing his stuff get torched more as the game goes on .vs automatically going to the pen after seeing the lineup a couple times.

I haven't really paid attention to it but I do know there's been an emphasis on "times through the order". 

I mean, damned if you do, damned if you don't. I don't like it. Relievers are so volatile (as we've seen clearly the past week) and I don't like "matchups". 

I don't know, sometimes it's the right decision, sometimes it's not. But I still think Maddon pulls guys too quickly.

[Kendo36]

Team looked tired in Texas. The double header didnt help. It looked hot as shit in Texas too. Texas is not as bad as their record shows. We still battled and should have won 2/3. Much needed day off. 

[floplag]

Im kind of glad it happened if im being honest.  Weve had a lot go right, and i think we were starting confuse luck with brains.  A little kick in the nether to remind us we still have some issues to resolve is a good thing.
 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im kind of glad it happened if im being honest.  Weve had a lot go right, and i think we were starting confuse luck with brains.  A little kick in the nether to remind us we still have some issues to resolve is a good thing.
 

Agreed. I mean they weren't going to continue on that pace ALL year. They're gonna have stretches like this, but then they'll get hot again.

Baseball is a really tough sport for impatient and shortsighted people to follow. Hey, I'm one of them. 

But I store it in the back of my mind that the season is long and there's gonna be plenty of heartbreak. I still think this is a good team. 

[Inside Pitch]

44 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I haven't really paid attention to it but I do know there's been an emphasis on "times through the order". 

I mean, damned if you do, damned if you don't. I don't like it. Relievers are so volatile (as we've seen clearly the past week) and I don't like "matchups". 

I don't know, sometimes it's the right decision, sometimes it's not. But I still think Maddon pulls guys too quickly.

Like I said in an unrelated thread, I wish Maddon didn't seem to be so formulaic but this may be one of those times where they have data that tells them to do something.  But the overall numbers aren't showing any real propensity to pull guys early as a whole.

I think you nailed it with the damned if you do, damned if you don't.  

[cals]

If Maddon would just stop making the bullpen so shitty we wouldn’t have to have this discussion.  He needs to make Iglesias stop sucking.