The Official 2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks Thread

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, mrwicked said:

yeah and the downside is being #4 worst record they can fall back to #6 pick.

really want to do whatever they can to land in those top 5 picks (third worst overall). the 6th will be good but the top 5 are all legitimate org changers.

but still, even worst record overall has 75% chances to not get the top pick. usually some one always does a big jump and the Ducks fall back.

will be interesting. the russian guy is insane, for a team with a long rebuild window like the hawks he will be a stellar choice.

 

Fixed.  At least that's what it seems like the last few drafts.

The Russian guy is going to be interesting.  Not just because of world politics.  But also that he's signed to the KHL for I think 2 more years after this one.  So whoever drafts him, won't see him for 3 years.  

[mrwicked]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

 

Fixed.  At least that's what it seems like the last few drafts.

The Russian guy is going to be interesting.  Not just because of world politics.  But also that he's signed to the KHL for I think 2 more years after this one.  So whoever drafts him, won't see him for 3 years.  

Ha, yep that's the correct fix. Ugh.

Have we ever jumped forward? Hell, have we ever maintained our slot? Maybe the Bobby Ryan #2 year? 

Yep exactly my thought too on the Russian guy. That's why I think someone like the hawks take him, because they are so early in their rebuild they can easily wait 3 years for him to show up. But he's gonna be a beast. He's arguably the most talented on the bunch.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, mrwicked said:

Ha, yep that's the correct fix. Ugh.

Have we ever jumped forward? Hell, have we ever maintained our slot? Maybe the Bobby Ryan #2 year? 

Yep exactly my thought too on the Russian guy. That's why I think someone like the hawks take him, because they are so early in their rebuild they can easily wait 3 years for him to show up. But he's gonna be a beast. He's arguably the most talented on the bunch.

I don't think we have ever moved up.  At least not that I recall.  Then again, for a while, we have been a consistent playoff team.  It's just been the last 5 years that we have been in the "lottery".  

Looking up some numbers.

21-22 10th worst 10th Mintykov

20-21 2nd worst 3rd McTavish

19-20 5th worst 6th Drysdale

18-19 8th worst 9th Zegras

17-18 playoffs 

So 3 of the 4 we have dropped.  

[deepdrive]

Yep. So roughly 50/50. A fourth seated team could win in the lottery or have the teams in front of him win this would give them 1,2 or 4. Also, the teams behind could jump Making 5,6 possible.

I haven't seen the math. But, I'm guessing staying at 4 would be the most probable. 5 would probably second most possible. Winning the lottery (1 or2) I'm guessing might be more probable than 6. But, it probably would be close. So if you do all the scenarios, !,2 or4 should be as probable or better than 5 or 6.

Of course, landing in any of the bottom three slots going into the lottery is preferable. But , let's be real. The Ducks should win at least one or two of the remaining 8 games. I don't think Chicago will win two or three more. In fact, I think they might lose every one of their remaining games. San Jose? I think they quit and started making vacation plans about a month or so ago. I see slim to no chance of them passing the Ducks. And Columbus? I don't know WTF is going on there. Why are they even this far down in the standings? I've been waiting half a season for them to get it together and move up in the standings. I give up at this point. 

[deepdrive]

5 hours ago, mrwicked said:

yeah and the downside is being #4 worst record they can fall back to #6 pick.

really want to do whatever they can to land in those top 5 picks (third worst overall). the 6th will be good but the top 5 are all legitimate org changers.

but still, even worst record overall has 75% chances to not get the top pick. usually some one always does a big jump and teams fall back.

will be interesting. the russian guy is insane, for a team with a long rebuild window like the hawks he will be a stellar choice.

So, are you including Smith with the usual suspects to get 5?

I think it would be nice to get Bedard, Michkov, or Fantilli. After that you're counting on the Ducks scouting to pick out the remaining jewel. And, I think there's a decent chance they could. They've stepped their game up the last couple years.

Z @ 9, Minty @ 10, even McTavish @ 3 all look like we beat the system.

[gotbeer]

26 minutes ago, deepdrive said:

So, are you including Smith with the usual suspects to get 5?

I think it would be nice to get Bedard, Michkov, or Fantilli. After that you're counting on the Ducks scouting to pick out the remaining jewel. And, I think there's a decent chance they could. They've stepped their game up the last couple years.

Z @ 9, Minty @ 10, even McTavish @ 3 all look like we beat the system.

Add Carlsson to the three you have listed to round out the top 4.  

If the Ducks drop to 6 or further, could they go D?  The top rated defenseman is a 6'2" right hand shot.  

[deepdrive]

51 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Add Carlsson to the three you have listed to round out the top 4.  

If the Ducks drop to 6 or further, could they go D?  The top rated defenseman is a 6'2" right hand shot.  

I don't know. But, I wouldn't think so. Depends on how confident Verbeek is on being able to trade and get what he needs. If he can do that, get the most valuable guy you can.

We need another guy who can score goals, though. This was supposed to be the draft for forwards. With one of the top picks, I don't see why we wouldn't get one.

[deepdrive]

Columbus lost. Chicago is losing. San Jose plays when we do. I could have almost wrote this script.

[gotbeer]

20 minutes ago, deepdrive said:

Columbus lost. Chicago is losing. San Jose plays when we do. I could have almost wrote this script.

To be fair, Chicago is playing Dallas.  Who is looking to get a top seed in the division.  Columbus played the Rangers who are stacked.  At least Philly won, but it won over Montreal.  And Detroit won.  

So right now, worst case if we win out, is we have the 8th pick slot.  

[deepdrive]

So, somehow San Jose beat the Jets.  That makes things a little tighter for now. I still don't see us finishing below them.

I seriously doubt we'll win 5-6 of the next 8, while Montreal loses 5 of the next 7. So, I'm not that concerned with how they do (or anyone above them). I know it theoretically can happen. But, the likelihood is so remote, It's kind of not worth bothering with.

Now if we win the next 3 games and they lose as many, then it will be something to watch.

[gotbeer]

27 minutes ago, deepdrive said:

So, somehow San Jose beat the Jets.  That makes things a little tighter for now. I still don't see us finishing below them.

I seriously doubt we'll win 5-6 of the next 8, while Montreal loses 5 of the next 7. So, I'm not that concerned with how they do (or anyone above them). I know it theoretically can happen. But, the likelihood is so remote, It's kind of not worth bothering with.

Now if we win the next 3 games and they lose as many, then it will be something to watch.

Calgary and Nashville approved.  It's going to be a race now.

[gotbeer]

@deepdrive  And BTW.  I don't think that any team is truely trying to tank.  As one of the commentators I once read said.  Players are trying to win themselves jobs for next season.  If they tank, their numbers would reflect it, and they wouldn't have jobs next season.  

Unless you are on the Ducks of course.  You can suck, and guys like Shattenkirk will be offered a job.  It's at this point that I sometimes wonder if Beeker is in over his head.  

[gotbeer]

It's a 4 team race for Bedard.  Here is what each team has left.

Ducks

• @ Seattle
• @ Edmonton
• @ Calgary
• Edmonton
• @ Arizona
• Colorado
• Vancouver
• Kings

San Jose

• Vegas
• @ Arizona
• Colorado
• Colorado
• Edmonton
• @ Winnipeg
• @ Calgary
• @ Edmonton

Chicago

• St Louis
• Devils
• @ Calgary
• @ Vancouver
• @ Seattle
• Minnesota
• @ Pittsburgh
• Philly

Columbus

• @ Boston
• Florida
• Ottawa
• @ Toronto
• @ Devils
• Rangers
• @ Philly
• Pittsburgh
• Buffalo

[gotbeer]

Troy Terry Out For Personal Reasons

Hopefully everything is ok in the Terry household.  Looking on the interwebs, Terry's wife is expecting their first child in May.  

[deepdrive]

I agree that the players aren't deliberately trying to lose. But I think Chicago's organization is. There is no way that doesn't filter down to the coaches and players. They are going to get lax (maybe even lazy) and not be held as accountable. The more okay losing is, the more they will lose. Hockey can be played that way and still players can put on a good show. But Chicago (and San Jose) are just going through the motions.

Now Columbus, I don't know what is going on there. But with the talent they have, they should be winning more. Their results are reminiscent of what Edmonton was for so many years.

[deepdrive]

46 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Troy Terry Out For Personal Reasons

Hopefully everything is ok in the Terry household.  Looking on the interwebs, Terry's wife is expecting their first child in May.  

This seems like the Ducks way of coping with Chicago and San Jose. Just take the rest of the season off Troy.

I don't blame them. The NHL should fix their system to stop this.

[deepdrive]

9 hours ago, gotbeer said:

It's a 4 team race for Bedard.  Here is what each team has left.

Ducks

• @ Seattle
• @ Edmonton
• @ Calgary
• Edmonton
• @ Arizona
• Colorado
• Vancouver
• Kings

San Jose

• Vegas
• @ Arizona
• Colorado
• Colorado
• Edmonton
• @ Winnipeg
• @ Calgary
• @ Edmonton

Chicago

• St Louis
• Devils
• @ Calgary
• @ Vancouver
• @ Seattle
• Minnesota
• @ Pittsburgh
• Philly

Columbus

• @ Boston
• Florida
• Ottawa
• @ Toronto
• @ Devils
• Rangers
• @ Philly
• Pittsburgh
• Buffalo

SJ's schedule looks pretty close to ours in level of difficulty.

[gotbeer]

31 minutes ago, deepdrive said:

This seems like the Ducks way of coping with Chicago and San Jose. Just take the rest of the season off Troy.

I don't blame them. The NHL should fix their system to stop this.

It's probably more serious than that.  Terry left in the middle of the St. Louis game the other day.  But yeah, he should take all the time he needs.  

[gotbeer]

Prospect Primer: Four Ducks Defensemen Complete Historic CHL Seasons

Might need to start paying some attention to Tristan Luneau.  He was our 2nd round pick (#53) in 2022.  But more importantly, 6'2", 191 lb, RH.  

The bad thing is, he's 19, and won't be 20 till January.  So 2023-2024 is his development window in the AHL.  

[gotbeer]

Luneau shoots like a forward.  Quick catch and release too.

https://www.nhl.com/ducks/video/prospect-report-tristan-luneau/t-277437084/c-16140246

[deepdrive]

6 hours ago, gotbeer said:

It's probably more serious than that.  Terry left in the middle of the St. Louis game the other day.  But yeah, he should take all the time he needs.  

I didn't mean my comment in any way directed towards Troy. I have no idea about why he needed the time off. It was more of a take on the NHL situation in general.

[deepdrive]

6 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Prospect Primer: Four Ducks Defensemen Complete Historic CHL Seasons

Might need to start paying some attention to Tristan Luneau.  He was our 2nd round pick (#53) in 2022.  But more importantly, 6'2", 191 lb, RH.  

The bad thing is, he's 19, and won't be 20 till January.  So 2023-2024 is his development window in the AHL.  

I think he was headed to be a 1st round pick and then was injured. So, his lack of visual availability and not knowing the effect the injury would have on him, caused the fall to the mid 2nd round. Good get by the Ducks.

[deepdrive]

6 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Luneau shoots like a forward.  Quick catch and release too.

https://www.nhl.com/ducks/video/prospect-report-tristan-luneau/t-277437084/c-16140246

Watching the video makes me wonder, how long until the NHL starts recognizing a new type of quasi forward/defender position in the league.

[mrwicked]

On 3/28/2023 at 5:05 PM, deepdrive said:

So, are you including Smith with the usual suspects to get 5?

I think it would be nice to get Bedard, Michkov, or Fantilli. After that you're counting on the Ducks scouting to pick out the remaining jewel. And, I think there's a decent chance they could. They've stepped their game up the last couple years.

Z @ 9, Minty @ 10, even McTavish @ 3 all look like we beat the system.

Yeah I include Smith in my top 5.

Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson, Smith is probably my order. 

I think Benson is a step beneath that top group. So if we're at least 3rd worst overall then worst we can do is 5th pick.

Agreed I do trust the Ducks scouts and drafting, we're solid there especially in later rounds. I have lots of Sharks fans friends and they bitch all the time about how terrible their scouts and drafting are.  

[mrwicked]

7 hours ago, deepdrive said:

I didn't mean my comment in any way directed towards Troy. I have no idea about why he needed the time off. It was more of a take on the NHL situation in general.

His wife is due for a baby in May and she might have to deliver early.

So he's only going to play the home games for the rest of the season to stay local.