Fallen Angel: Is Trout no longer the best in the game?

[Angelsjunky]

What, are you crazy? Of course Trout is the best; you're only writing this because he's missed most of the year due to injury. What are you thinking, Angelsjunky? Just trying to be provocative?

Let's try to approach this question in as objective a manner as possible, without the typical (and understandable) homerism. Part of performance is health; if you can't stay healthy, you can't put up the numbers to prove your worth.

At this point, I think it is safe to say that Trout is injury prone. As of this writing, he has played in 477 of the last 688 games, or 69.3% of games over the last five seasons (2017-21). Assuming he doesn't play any of the next 20, that will be 477 of 708, or 67.4%.

We're not talking a year or two, but the last half decade. Can a player who manages to play on only two-thirds of all games over the last five years be considered the best player in the game?

Let's go to the most commonly used stat for overall value: WAR. Here are position player rankings over different spans of time, going back to the last five years (through Sept 10, 2021):

2021: 1. Semien 6.2, 2. Vlad Jr 6.2, 3. Harper 5.5, 4. Three Players 5.4...94. Trout 2.3 

2020-21: 1. Ramirez 8.8, 2. Tatis Jr 8.1, 3. Turner 8.0, 4. Semien 7.4....33. Trout 4.8

2019-21: 1. Semien 15.0, 2. Bogaerts 13.4, 3. Trout 13.3, 4. Betts 13.2, 5. Ramirez 12.2 

2018-21: 1. Betts 23.6, 2. Trout 22.9, 3. Ramirez 20.4, 4. Bregman 19.1, 5. Semien 18.9

2017-21: 1. Trout 29.7, 2. Betts 29.0, 3. Ramirez 26.9, 4. Judge 23.4, 5. Rendon 23.3

If we want to play by the letter of the law, we can say that Semien or Vlad Jr is the best player this year, Ramirez over the last two years, Semien over the last three, and Betts, over the last four. Meaning, you have to go all the way back to 2017 to get Trout back to 1st, as far as spans of time.

Trout will likely finish the year outside of the top 100 in WAR, with 2.3 (in 36 games). Last year, in 2020, when he was mostly healthy, he finished 10th with 2.5, although we can assume that he would have climbed his way into at least the top 5 with a full (healthy) season.

Despite his injury this year and sub-par shortened 2020, he ranks highly in the 3-5 year spans due to his incredible level in his first eight seasons (2012-19). In those three years--2017-19--he was first among all hitters, with 24.9 WAR, with Betts second at 22.4.

So back to the original question: Can Trout still be considered the best in the game? Especially when you consider that more than 30 players have produced more value over the last two seasons?

This could be a moot point next year if Trout comes back healthy and returns to his typical 9 WAR self. As I've pointed out several times, Trout is one of only 11 position players in baseball history with at least five 9 WAR seasons - that will never be taken away from him. No other active player has more than one such historic season, and the last players to have multiple 9 WAR seasons are Barry Bonds (with 8 ), Alex Rodriguez (6), and Ken Griffey Jr (2).

But Trout hasn't had a 9 WAR season since 2018; in 2019, his last full season, he fell a bit short with "only" 8.5. From 2012-18, five of seven seasons were 9 WAR or higher. Expecting him to return to that level in his 30s, especially with his recent track record of injury, may be wishful thinking.

In the end, the truest answer to the question is that we'll just have to wait and see in 2022. Early this year, Trout seemed to have bounced back from his down 2020, but was injured just a month and a half into the season. He's still only 30, so there's no reason that he shouldn't return to a very high level, but the big question is: can he stay healthy? Or, in the context of this post, healthy enough to regain his crown as the best player in the game?

The inevitable verdict is this: While Trout might still be the best when he plays, he's no longer the most valuable player in the game. In the end, players can only be judged by what they actually do, which is based upon their health. And until Trout proves that he can stay healthy and return to at least close to his peak level (8 WAR would do), he can't really be considered the best player in the game. For the first time in almost a decade, Trout is going to have to win that title back.

[Chuck]

[Jason]

His best seasons are in the rear view mirror now. He’s still a great player and will be a difference maker for the Angels but the injuries are something that he and Angel fans are going to have to get used to. 

Edited September 12, 2021 by Jason

[Angelsjunky]

24 minutes ago, Jason said:

His best seasons are in the rear view mirror now. He’s still a great player and will be a difference maker for the Angels but the injuries are something that he and Angel fans are going to have to get used to. 

All the above said, I'm not convinced. Or rather, I do think his best string of years is behind him, but if he is able to stay healthy for a whole season, I think he may have another two or three 9 WAR seasons in him.

If you look at his wRC+, he's actually been a better hitter since 2017. Or:

2012-16: Five seasons in the 167-176 range, with four of five between 167-171.

2017-21: Four seasons between 178-188, with covid-shortened 2020 at 162 and 2021 at 192.

Meaning, from 2012-16 he was basically a 170 wRC+ hitter, and from 2017 on he's been more around 180. Theoretically he has a 190 wRC+ season in him and if he manages to have a solid defensive and baserunning season, he could have a career year.

But the problem remains health. That hypothetical career year is possible, but requires A) health, B) combining his best hitting with C) good baserunning, and D) solid defense. Meaning, it probably has to happen in the next two or three years.

There's also the possibility that he remains in prime hitting form for another five years, but his other skills start to erode so his WAR goes down more to the 7-8 range.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[ScottT]

Guess the poster....

This has to be the 10th thread of this nature.

[fan_since79]

Next season will tell us a lot more regarding the answer to this question. If he's still hobbled by the calf and it causes his usual numbers to plummet, then we'll know.

 

[Duren, Duren]

Like most great players, he's being paid for what he did in the past.  Only the most blindly optimistic would think his salary going forward will equate to the production of his peak last seasons. But that's just the money side.

"Best in the game" is a label based on reputation, even when production slows down to some degree. It will take a full season of a healthy Trout to earn back that designation. The empirical evidence shows a steady decline, with injuries a main factor. But health is a significant part of the total package. You can't be 'the best' without proving it. 

Trout's past earns him a bit of time to maintain his status, but others are emerging as real challengers. With better stats and on more of an upward trajectory. And Trout was uncharacteristically inconsistent with his plate coverage the last couple of years. Taking more strikes, swinging at bad pitches. Probably partly because of lack of respect from umps for his knowledge of his strike zone. 

Betts was arguably 'the best' for one year, but has declined from that peak. The others discussed are all possibilities now, but have a high standard to meet and sustain. Any may have a similar one year great season like Betts, but will have to do it for longer. Presuming Trout doesn't come back healthy and reclaim that title. 

 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

At this point, I think it is safe to say that Trout is injury prone.

He’s been on the IL/DL for more than 3 weeks four times. (And one of those most of it was because his brother in law committed suicide. People tend to forget that when looking at his games missed.) Another of them was a condition he had been playing with but decided to stop because the Angels were out of it. I think he’d have just kept playing if they’d been in the race. 
 

His only other serious injury was 4 years ago when he tore his thumb sliding head first, which is why he now wears the oven mitt. And that time he came back in exactly the time expected. 
 

Yeah, this year has been nasty. But I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt until something like this happens again. 

[Stradling]

@Jeff Fletcher have you heard if they ever changed the diagnosis of his injury?  I believe they originally called it a grade 2 strain.  Trout called it a year.  Are they both right?

[Jeff Fletcher]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@Jeff Fletcher have you heard if they ever changed the diagnosis of his injury?  I believe they originally called it a grade 2 strain.  Trout called it a year.  Are they both right?

Technically all strains are tears. 

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Technically all strains are tears. 

I assumed that, which is why I asked if they are both right.  So no further explanation other than he is healing physically and mentally from the injury?

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I assumed that, which is why I asked if they are both right.  So no further explanation other than he is healing physically and mentally from the injury?

Pretty much. 
 

Although the Angels never use the words “setback” or “aggravated” it seems pretty obvious that he did too much when he was trying to come back in late July and then hurt it more. But I have no reason to believe it’s any different injury. 

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

He’s been on the IL/DL for more than 3 weeks four times. (And one of those most of it was because his brother in law committed suicide. People tend to forget that when looking at his games missed.) Another of them was a condition he had been playing with but decided to stop because the Angels were out of it. I think he’d have just kept playing if they’d been in the race. 
 

His only other serious injury was 4 years ago when he tore his thumb sliding head first, which is why he now wears the oven mitt. And that time he came back in exactly the time expected. 
 

Yeah, this year has been nasty. But I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt until something like this happens again. 

That's the glass half full version, and I considered it as I wrote it. I mean, from 2018-20 he played 327 of 384 games (85%); it is mostly 2017 and 2021 that he missed significant time.

But I'm concerned. Not "Albert Pujols post-2016" concerned, but the main point is that Trout's crown is--at best--wobbly, and unless he can put together another vintage Trout season in 2022, then I think his days as the best player in the game are over.

And of course he's now challenged by guys like Tatis, Acuna, Soto, Vlad, and soon, Franco--not to mention Shohei. But I think those guys max out like garden variety MVPs, around 8 WAR. Vintage Trout is 9+ WAR.

[ettin]

@Angelsjunky I am going to destroy your dirty, glib tongue, now.

[Jay]

Wasn't Trout on pace for 10 WAR this season before the injury? Granted, small sample size but he was on fire IIRC.

 

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, Jay said:

Wasn't Trout on pace for 10 WAR this season before the injury? Granted, small sample size but he was on fire IIRC.

 

Yeah, it's obviously hard to really say what he was "on pace" for with only 36 games played.  That said, he WAS red hot for the first 24 of those (.410/.515/.759) before dropping to .147/.356/.294 in the 12 games before he got hurt.   So he was already coming back down to earth and likely wouldn't have kept up a 10 WAR pace.

[TheLordofOuts]

Trout has obviously contracted a chronic disease called Pujolio. In about 8 years, he will be DFAed and will sign with the Dodgers