Harper: career year in front of him or behind him?

[Dtwncbad]

As much as this guy is polarizing with his style and personality, I very much find him an interesting discussion in terms of pure baseball talent. 

For maybe the first time I can remember, I don’t see all of baseball hyperfocused on what Bruce Harper might do this year.

He is 28.  Has a ton of mlb experience now. His contract is in place.  He is settled in now in Philadelphia.  He is healthy.  I presume he is a little more mature?

There is no question whatsoever that his leverage in his swing, his pure power, is jaw dropping.

Just curious what people think.  Is his career year ahead of him still or do you think it already happened when he hit 42 homers hitting .330 a few years back?

I know many “hate” this guy.  But I am of the opinion that it would be really good for baseball overall if Bryce Harper now clicked into his full potential and started being the guy that is delivering on his potential rather than the guy that is getting paid for potential that never gets fully realized.

I kinda hope this guy goes off and starts averaging 55 homers a season. . .

He was a legend as a child player, and a legend at other steps along the way.  Might be nice (for baseball) for him to take the next step as a mlb player and start being more legendary in terms of actual production on the field.

I guess I fully admit I want this “hatable” guy to achieve legendary status because sports thrives on two things: love and hate.

[Slegnaac]

The "Deadball" will have some say in whether his numbers increase.  I could envision him being among the league leaders but not better career numbers.

[Bronson]

Yes.

[Torridd]

Yes, I agree. I think it will be difficult to improve that 42 homer year.

[tdawg87]

Despite his popularity, he may actually be underrated. 

He's 28 and has already amassed a 36.8 fWAR. That's not Trout-esque but no one is. It's still very impressive, and well on his way to a Hall of Fame career.

He has a good shot at getting to 300 HR before age 30. Not something to sneeze at.

[ukyah]

i don't feel love or hate towards bryce, but i also wouldn't characterize him as underrated. i think he's overrated in the sense as was already stated, he's being paid for potential and not actual production. i definitely don't think the game "needs" him. if he plays well, then good for him. if not, then others will fill the void.

[Second Base]

Guys that will be most hurt by the deadened ball are the types with shorter HR distances, off higher launch angles. 

You don't have to worry so much about guys like Trout, Harper or Ohtani. Their balls will still leave the yard. Guys like Tommy La Stella whose will enter a free fall in terms of power.

I know this won't make many friends, but I think it's going to hurt Anthony Rendon. 

But someone like Harper, in a hitter friendly yard, with enough power to drive the ball 500 feet already....I think his power numbers should remain pretty constant. 

But I'm with the OP, I'm expecting his second best season as a professional. His MVP year was pretty unreal. 

Edited March 18, 2021 by Second Base

[Angelsjunky]

First of all, the OP should be banned fo life.

But more seriously, it isn't risky or fearless to predict that Harper's second best season is before him. If you look at his seasons in order of fWAR you get: 9.3, 4.8, 4.6, 4.4, 4.1, 3.5, 2.9, 1.6, 1.6.

Over the last five seasons, he's established a clear 4-5 WAR level. That's a solid all-star, but not a superstar. But in 2015 he had a season only bested by Trout, Betts, Posey, and Pujols among active players. His wRC+ of 197 was the same as Babe Ruth's career average and better than anything Trout has produced. In fact, it was the 42nd best hitting season of all time and of recent players, only Bonds, Thomas, Bagwell, and McGwire have been better (and Soto in 2020, in 47 games played).

So one would think Bryce has at least one or two 6+ WAR, 170+ wRC season in him. But something like 2015? Unlikely.

[Angelsjunky]

So to respond to the specifics of the question: No, his career year was 2015 and will likely always be 2015. But he has a good chance of producing his 2nd and even 3rd and 4th best seasons over the next half decade plus. But he'll never sniff 9.3 WAR and 197 wRC+ again. IMO.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

If you look at his seasons in order of fWAR you get: 9.3, 4.8, 4.6, 4.4, 4.1, 3.5, 2.9, 1.6, 1.6.

Over the last five seasons, he's established a clear 4-5 WAR level.

You might want to check your math. 

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, Lou said:

You might want to check your math. 

Huh? Those are the WAR numbers of the nine season he's been in the majors. Over the last five seasons he's produced 1.6 (in 58 games, 4.3 pace), 4.6, 3.5, 4.8, 2.9. Average = 4 WAR per season, if including 2020 pace.

Tell me about math, Lou. Teach me.

 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Huh? Those are the WAR numbers of the nine season he's been in the majors. Over the last five seasons he's produced 1.6 (in 58 games, 4.3 pace), 4.6, 3.5, 4.8, 2.9. Average = 4 WAR per season, if including 2020 pace.

Tell me about math, Lou. Teach me.

 

Oh, I had assumed you listed the numbers in chronological order, as most humans would have done. 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

Oh, I had assumed you listed the numbers in chronological order, as most humans would have done. 

Check your reading comprehension, Lou. I wrote "in order of fWAR."

[Lou]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Check your reading comprehension, Lou. I wrote "in order of fWAR."

Sorry, I'm watching March Madness. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

Sorry, I'm watching March Madness. 

Forgiven.

[gotbeer]

He'll go down in numbers.  Until the Phillies dump him on the Doggies, paying half his salary, then he will suddenly have a resurgence and dominate.  

[Docwaukee]

I don't think he's coming close to that 2015 season ever again.  He hit .330 with a .369 babip.   He's not a pure hitter.  He's got holes and pitchers know what they are.  It will depend on how well they exploit those holes at to whether he hits anywhere from about .250-.280.  

And he's an average defender at best at a corner spot and not a premium position.  I think a different ball will affect everyone across the board pretty evenly on a pro rata basis.  He'll have a couple seasons over the next 6 or 7 where he hits more than 40 bombs with 6 WAR.  Maybe a 7.  He'll also drop another couple 2 WAR seasons out there.  

He'll be a longevity guy when all is said and done due to starting at such a young age.  

I think Soto is the next guy to become a truly generational player and one of the best hitters of all time.  An inner circle guy with 100 plus WAR by the end of his career.  

[Tank]

his career year is behind him. he's too streaky.

[T.G.]

I hope Harper's best days aren't behind him.  When he's on, he's fun to watch, despite all the antics.  I made special trips to Petco to watch him in the past because I thought he was fun to watch.  I know he's polarizing, but I'd like to see him put up huge numbers again.

Let the kids play.

[ten ocho recon scout]

My only dislike for him is the trout rivalry. And that was put to rest a long time ago.