NL Cy

[Pancake Bear]

Was just looking at the NY Cy Young race. The two top guys are a fascinating exercise on determining value. 

Ryu has elite skill at inducing favorable contact and the results have been there this season. Based strictly on results, it should be Ryu in a shoo-in. But he gets dinged on WAR and FIP because his K rate is extremely pedestrian. Ryu has a slight advantage in IP also (142 to 134).

Scherzer, meanwhile, is the league leader in WAR and k% - the undeniable skill part of pitching, but his ERA is noticeably higher than Ryu's, although his FIP is quite a bit better. 

So how do you vote? What matters more: Scherzer's world class dominance or Ryu's more subtle - and possibly a bit lucky (but how much?) - contact pitching? Ordinarily for me, the answer would be easy: Scherzer. But the ERA difference is so sharp it gives me pause. 

Thoughts?

[Angelsjunky]

I'm somewhat old school about ERA, because in the end it is a pitcher's job to prevent runs from scoring, no matter how he does it. FIP-based WAR is a bit too technical and misses some of the things that you can't quite quantify with stats - like "pitchability."

Another stat to look at is RA9-WAR, which is basically ERA-based WAR. In that category, Ryu is way out of ahead.

I think I'd actually give Ryu the edge right now. That 1.45 ERA is just too gaudy. 

[AngelsFanSince86]

I would go with Ryu. He's made 2 more starts and 18 more IP. His ERA+ is off the charts. How win-loss record is much better as well. I know wins are partially a team stat. To me it's more the losses than anything. The fact he only has 2 losses in 22 starts means he's basically a lock to do his part. It's either a win or the bullpen that's blowing the games. 

Scherzer is close and maybe if your were deciding which one to sign I would year FIP to steer me towards him. But on a CY decision I'm going Ryu all the way.

Edited August 15, 2019 by AngelsFanSince86
Edit: IP difference is only 8 innings. I read 134 as 124 on my phone

[totdprods]

Crazy that Ryu was similarly dominant last year. 37 GS last two years and a 1.64 ERA, 0.96 WHIP over that time. 

Also crazy that Scherzer has three Cy awards already and three more Top 5 finishes. What a force he is.

Ryu has my vote for now.

[m0nkey]

Scherzers missed too much time to make up for the ERA gap

[Tank]

give it up, boys. you know they're just going to look at W-L, era, IP, K, and BB.

[Pancake Bear]

33 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm somewhat old school about ERA, because in the end it is a pitcher's job to prevent runs from scoring, no matter how he does it. FIP-based WAR is a bit too technical and misses some of the things that you can't quite quantify with stats - like "pitchability."

Another stat to look at is RA9-WAR, which is basically ERA-based WAR. In that category, Ryu is way out of ahead.

I think I'd actually give Ryu the edge right now. That 1.45 ERA is just too gaudy. 

This is probably my view, too. Scherzer has been technically elite, but the results are just a clear step behind. I feel like it's close, but I probably vote Ryu, personally.

My opinion is Cy Young voting is harder than MVP, where the differences are usually easier to grade.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Sean-Regan said:

This is probably my view, too. Scherzer has been technically elite, but the results are just a clear step behind. I feel like it's close, but I probably vote Ryu, personally.

My opinion is Cy Young voting is harder than MVP, where the differences are usually easier to grade.

I think I mentioned elsewhere that it seems there are more flukey Cy Young seasons. I haven't actually checked this out, but I think it is more common that a #3 type starter has a #1 season than a good position player has an MVP season.

Scherzer has taken over the mantle from Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball. He'd be more in the running if he hadn't missed a few starts.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think I mentioned elsewhere that it seems there are more flukey Cy Young seasons. I haven't actually checked this out, but I think it is more common that a #3 type starter has a #1 season than a good position player has an MVP season.

Scherzer has taken over the mantle from Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball. He'd be more in the running if he hadn't missed a few starts.

Yeah, there is a little bit of an innings gap between them. Basically comes down to one full start - that isn't insignificant, and I weight that in with the rest. But Scherzer is amazing, no question. Nationals got a steal. At the time, I thought it was dumb, but he's really played up to his contract.

[ten ocho recon scout]

48 minutes ago, Tank said:

give it up, boys. you know they're just going to look at spin rate

 

[Angel Oracle]

Scherzer has done something very few pitchers have ever done.   

If this season holds up, it will be SIX sub 1.00 WHIPs in the past 7 seasons.

Assuming 42 more Ks, he will have had at least 231 Ks for EIGHT straight seasons. 

His durability before this season was crazy good.   At least 30 starts for TEN straight seasons is crazy today. 

He was definitely worth his contract, with two seasons to go.

[eligrba]

Whoever plays for the Yankees or Red Sox should win.