If Trout was already extended to a 10 year deal. . .

[Docwaukee]

you can never get full value for Trout in a trade. The package another team could afford without completely decimating their franchise and defeating the purpose of acquiring him maxes out at a certain point.  It also wouldn't make a ton of sense for the acquiring team to negatively impact their current major league roster.  So what you're really talking about is getting prospects back. 

Does that package go down between now and 18 months from now?  I don't think so.  I think it just gets closer to being of appropriate value.  

The other thing you do by keeping Trout is give yourself more time to get some of the kids on the field to actually show some of that future value.  

If I were Trout, I would definitely want to win in 2019 and 2020, but the number in the win column for those two years would have a material impact on whether I am staying for another 10 years.  What would have an impact for me is whether Ohtani is the real deal, whether Barria continues to perform, whether Simmons and Heaney and Skaggs are still going to be there.  Whether Canning and Suarez and Buttrey and Middleton perform well.  Whether Fletcher or Ward or Thaiss or Jones or Rengifo can become good everyday players.  And finally, is Arte going to financially support that core when the time comes and will there be excess on the farm to make those couple of big trades to complete the puzzle?  

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Here's the thing about Arte spending more if he wanted to:

convince him that raising payroll would be worth it.  He's got a professional baseball general manager sitting right next to him along with a lot of other baseball professionals.  

If the Angels were currently in a situation where the construct of the team was such that this was our 'last best shot', don't you think we'd be proceeding differently?  

So everyone sits in a room a determines if spending an additional 30mil would significantly change the odds for this team.  

Take a good hard look at what this team is.  Now spend an additional 30m and then tell me what it is.  For 2019, that would amount to Moustakas, Robertson, and Grandal.  

Does that make you the favorite for the division?  Does that put you in the ballpark of competing for the division?  Does that make you a shoe in for a WC spot when you've got two teams in the east that could win 100 games?  

At the end you likely just gave yourself a better chance to play one more game and you still need a bunch of other positive things to happen as well. 

I guarantee that when setting the budget, this was all part of the discussion and this is how people who do this for a living thought was the best way to proceed.   

Regarding the bold section...  We both know there is nothing were going to do right now that would make us the favorite over Hou short of going complete and total ham.  But thats also not what im trying to do based on exactly that as it would cripple us moving forward but there is a middle ground. 

IF we added the names you suggest, we would almost certainly be a second WC favorite.  We are projected to win 84/85, i believe those guys would add enough to get us to 90 and put us over on TB.  Maybe mid season we grab an ace on rental or maybe Harvey regains his old form, anything can happen if you get there, but you have to get there. 

Now, we get to 20, 21, the farm starts kicking in filling in the blanks as Hou start losing people and voila, were right there ready to pounce without question marks.  

Adding guys like Mous or Grandal i dont see as a problem even if we had to go 4 yrs for example on Grandal as we simply dont have anyone significant in the pipeline at C.   Even 3B we dont, we have a lot of middle infielders but no true 3B.  Dont get me wrong i wouldnt go anything like 4 years to Mous but i would do 2 or maybe 3 pending cost.  None of this would cripple us moving forward in any way but it makes us far more viable on the short term which is what i would would have liked to see the org do. 

It doesnt really matter it would seem that ship has sailed, but all i wanted was for this team to try to both continue to build and try to compete on the interim in a manner that doesnt affect the long term viability.  I truly believe it is/was possible to do both with a little more budget.    The definition of compete isnt to project better than Hou, Ny,  or Bos, just to get a chance to play them in October.    

[Docwaukee]

24 minutes ago, floplag said:

Regarding the bold section...  We both know there is nothing were going to do right now that would make us the favorite over Hou short of going complete and total ham.  But thats also not what im trying to do based on exactly that as it would cripple us moving forward but there is a middle ground. 

IF we added the names you suggest, we would almost certainly be a second WC favorite.  We are projected to win 84/85, i believe those guys would add enough to get us to 90 and put us over on TB.  Maybe mid season we grab an ace on rental or maybe Harvey regains his old form, anything can happen if you get there, but you have to get there. 

Now, we get to 20, 21, the farm starts kicking in filling in the blanks as Hou start losing people and voila, were right there ready to pounce without question marks.  

Adding guys like Mous or Grandal i dont see as a problem even if we had to go 4 yrs for example on Grandal as we simply dont have anyone significant in the pipeline at C.   Even 3B we dont, we have a lot of middle infielders but no true 3B.  Dont get me wrong i wouldnt go anything like 4 years to Mous but i would do 2 or maybe 3 pending cost.  None of this would cripple us moving forward in any way but it makes us far more viable on the short term which is what i would would have liked to see the org do. 

It doesnt really matter it would seem that ship has sailed, but all i wanted was for this team to try to both continue to build and try to compete on the interim in a manner that doesnt affect the long term viability.  I truly believe it is/was possible to do both with a little more budget.    The definition of compete isnt to project better than Hou, Ny,  or Bos, just to get a chance to play them in October.    

I don't disagree with most of what you've written.  

However, ask Arte if he's willing to shell out an additional $30m for a better shot at the 2nd wild card.  That's a lot to pony up for the opportunity to play 1 more game.  

[floplag]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't disagree with most of what you've written.  

However, ask Arte if he's willing to shell out an additional $30m for a better shot at the 2nd wild card.  That's a lot to pony up for the opportunity to play 1 more game.  

Its not an opportunity to play 1 more game, its a guarantee to play one more game and an opportunity for more than that.
 

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, RBM said:

I think this team could win the Division:

1. Jed Lowrie 2B 

2. Mike Trout CF

3. Justin Upton LF

4. Shohei Ohtani DH

5. Andrelton Simmons SS

6. Pujols/Bour 1B

7. Yasmani Grandal C

8. Kole Calhoun RF

9. Zack Cozart 3B

So yeah, I think we could win if Moreno gave Eppler another $30 M.

You forgot pitching. Also, Ohtani - we don’t know how much he’ll actually play. 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Its not an opportunity to play 1 more game, its a guarantee to play one more game and an opportunity for more than that.
 

even if they spend an extra 30m, that guarantees nothing.  All you are doing is improving your chances for at least one more game and it could be one and done.  If you're lucky, you've got a 50/50 chance in that extra game.  

again, you don't have to convince me.  

I think the amount of thought and effort that goes into determining the team's budget and the potential impact is being understated here. 

[Stradling]

24 minutes ago, floplag said:

Its not an opportunity to play 1 more game, its a guarantee to play one more game and an opportunity for more than that.
 

No it is far from a guarantee to play one more game.

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, RBM said:

I think this team could win the Division:

1. Jed Lowrie 2B 

2. Mike Trout CF

3. Justin Upton LF

4. Shohei Ohtani DH

5. Andrelton Simmons SS

6. Pujols/Bour 1B

7. Yasmani Grandal C

8. Kole Calhoun RF

9. Zack Cozart 3B

So yeah, I think we could win if Moreno gave Eppler another $30 M.

Honestly, I think if Eppler thought that, there would be much different discussions about budget going on.  

I still see a ton of risk with that team when you include the entire rotation and the entire bullpen.  

[Stradling]

We have $15 million or so to spend now, another $30 does get you an impact bat.  I would say with $45 million left right now you could go get Harper and Lowrie.  Still not sure you are in the wild card, have to be considered a favorite, not that that matters we might have been favorites last year, but it would be one helluva fun balanced offense to watch.  Shit even an extra $10 gets you Lowrie and Ottavino.  Outside of Harper and Machado, unless I am missing someone I have to think Lowrie is the best left.  I would certainly take him over Mous.  

[floplag]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No it is far from a guarantee to play one more game.

 

28 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

even if they spend an extra 30m, that guarantees nothing.  All you are doing is improving your chances for at least one more game and it could be one and done.  If you're lucky, you've got a 50/50 chance in that extra game.  

again, you don't have to convince me.  

I think the amount of thought and effort that goes into determining the team's budget and the potential impact is being understated here. 

Nothing is a guarantee, fine, thats absolutely true.
It comes down to which is more likely or probable to win more games and have a better chance at playing more games? 
On paper and projections the names you discussed put us in that position as ours to lose, the team we have today doesn't without a lot of luck.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

 

Nothing is a guarantee, fine, thats absolutely true.
It comes down to which is more likely or probable to win more games and have a better chance at playing more games? 
On paper and projections the names you discussed put us in that position as ours to lose, the team we have today doesn't without a lot of luck.

are you assuming this was never a topic of conversation among Arte and the front office?  Don't you think they've weighed these possibilities?  

having a better chance doesn't mean you have a good chance.  Or at least good enough to justify the expenditure of $30m 

If I had a choice between expanding payroll now or doing it when the team is better, I would choose the latter.  I don't know if that's even a real option and if it gets to the point where it seems more justified, I will definitely be bummed if it doesn't happen.  

[ettin]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

 

Nothing is a guarantee, fine, thats absolutely true.
It comes down to which is more likely or probable to win more games and have a better chance at playing more games? 
On paper and projections the names you discussed put us in that position as ours to lose, the team we have today doesn't without a lot of luck.

 

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

are you assuming this was never a topic of conversation among Arte and the front office?  Don't you think they've weighed these possibilities?  

having a better chance doesn't mean you have a good chance.  Or at least good enough to justify the expenditure of $30m 

If I had a choice between expanding payroll now or doing it when the team is better, I would choose the latter.  I don't know if that's even a real option and if it gets to the point where it seems more justified, I will definitely be bummed if it doesn't happen.  

Based on where the Angels are at currently, it would be better to address the holes as best as possible on a strict budget now and then see where you are at, when the Trade Deadline hits. At that point there are always rental trade targets Eppler can target and use the fringes of our farm system to acquire a needed bat, starter, or reliever (e.g. Upton, Hernandez, et al).

[floplag]

24 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

are you assuming this was never a topic of conversation among Arte and the front office?  Don't you think they've weighed these possibilities?  

having a better chance doesn't mean you have a good chance.  Or at least good enough to justify the expenditure of $30m 

If I had a choice between expanding payroll now or doing it when the team is better, I would choose the latter.  I don't know if that's even a real option and if it gets to the point where it seems more justified, I will definitely be bummed if it doesn't happen.  

i dont know what they have or havent spoken of, i know only that one list is a likely playoff team and the other isnt.   I also know that there is no guarantee the team will be better in 2-3 years.  It should be, but its not in stone.  We have a solid core now, seems a shame to waste it simply because we cant guarantee we can beat the big 3, if thats what were using to measure this by were in deep doodoo