The Veracity of WAR in light of Lance Berkman et al

[Angelsjunky]

I was browsing through Fangraphs and for some reason found myself on Lance Berkman's page. Berkman is one of those players who, for some reason, is too soon forgotten and probably historically underrated. I would compare him to players like Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez, Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, and Brian Giles: A step above "Hall of the Very Good" into "Hall of the Really Good, and better than a bunch of Hall of Famers."

But here's the thing. Berkman is a good test subject for the veracity of WAR. Compare two players, the first being Berkman the second being a Hall of Famer:

Berkman: 1879 games, .293/.406/.537, 366 HR, 144 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR
Hall of Famer: 2147 games, .318/.379/.553, 449 HR, 136 wRC+, 54.3 fWAR

You probably guessed by now that the Hall of Famer is Vlad Guerrero. But here's the thing: Berkman produced slightly more WAR in his caeer, but in 268 fewer games. He was a slightly better hitter, but hit for a lower average and hit a few less HR. But overall, the quality was at least as good and--by WAR--somewhat better. By 162 games played, Berk was at 4.8 fWAR, Vlad at 4.1.

We can add in a few more names:

Edmonds: 2011 games, .284/.376/.527, 393 HR, 132 wRC+, 64.5 fWAR

Giles: 1847 games, .291/.400/.502, 287 HR, 136 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR

Abreu: 2425 games, .291/.395/.475, 288 HR, 129 wRC+, 59.6 fWAR

Martinez: 2055 games, .312/.418/.515, 309 HR, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR

There are probably very few people who think Giles or Abreu belong in the Hall of Fame. Both are better than quite a few Hall of Famers, but both also fit the view of "Hall of the Very Good," especially Abreu who was a Hall of Fame caliber player for the first half of his career, but not nearly as good later on. Giles has a pretty similar line to Berkman, but for some reason just seems less impressive.

Edmonds has a higher WAR, but a chunk of that is due to his stellar defense, which doesn't quite show up on the radar as much as hitting. Edgar is similar to Edmonds but in a way even more impressive as he was a DH for the bulk of his career and still produced 65 fWAR. He is the greatest hitter on this list; his 147 wRC+ is the same as Mike Schmidt and Ralph Kiner.

Anyhow, what does all of this tell us? Why is Vlad in and the others not? I think Edmonds and Edgar will eventually make it in, and possibly Berkman as well. The others, probably not. But Vlad is partially even largely in because of the mystique around his unusual hitting ability. He wasn't a better player than Berkman, but he was more noticeable - more star power.

But to end this with a question: Does the above put into queston the veracity of WAR, or does it simply prove how skewed our perceptions are? Or both? According to those numbers, Edgar, Edmonds, Berkman and Giles were actually better players than Vlad, but that is not how posterity views things.

[101halo]

I think it's a case where both are "borderline," but the way that Vlad did it was so unique. Swinging at everything in a way that so rarely produces a good baseball player. Both may have been roughly equally valuable, but Vlad produced much better entertainment to the fans than Berkman. 

Even as an analytical type, I think this is fair and a good thing. Entertainment value matters in sports. Similarly, I'd always take the guy who produced 60 WAR over 6 amazing seasons over the guy who did it in 12 seasons at about 5 WAR a season. 

[Second Base]

I think this one is really about the narrative.

Bergman didn't stay with one organization, and the one that he played the majority of his career with, either wasn't compelling or Berkman was overshadowed by other fan favorites like Biggio or Bagwell.

Vladdy was exciting because he was such a bad ball hitter, and he was fast and powerful, and he played for the Expos and they really draw a sentiment for not existing anymore. Plus Vladdy was mostly the biggest star on any team he played for.

That's what the HOF voters really key on, who made headlines.

It goes back to what we're seeing with Trout right now. Were he a more compelling individual, he'd dominate jersey sales, headlines and be the center of conversation in baseball. We're witnessing the greatest era of baseball ever in terms of talent, and Trout is so far beyond any of the other greats that it's both comical and unbelievable. 

Yet most people either aren't aware of him because he's on the West Coast, or they don't care because he's boring.

Harper does half of what Trout does but is the talk of baseball.

It's all about the narrative. If the first two-way player in 100 years was a talented white guy that's basically an open book like Brendan McKay then it'd be interesting. But the fact that it's someone from Japan, who has a huge media and fan following, whose personal life is a giant mystery, who throws 100 mph....the story is more than interesting now. 

It's must watch TV, must read writing.

[AngelsLakersFan]

They are actually similar players in terms of total career value, but there are a few distinctions that make the difference.

Vlad at one point in his career looked like a great bet to end up in both the 3000 hit club and the 500 homerun club, but he kind of fizzled out late in his career. War also absolutely destroys him for all of those throwing errors and base running mistakes over the years. As a pure talent, Vlad might be one of the most talented players any of us had ever seen. We all talk about his legendary approach at the plate, but I always believed that it was his approach that held him back from being an inner circle hall of famer. Statistically he is a borderline candidate.

I consider Berkman a comparable player, he just didn't have that unique narrative - that said I think he has a decent shot of reaching the HoF in the long run. Martinez absolutely belongs but he has that DH stigma associated with him. Edmonds is criminally underrated, and this was true even during his playing career. Im not really sure why. Abreu and Giles are similar in that they were underrated because so much of their value came from not making outs, rather than from first class power like Guerrero. 

Realistically this all comes down to perception. If you watched Vlad play you might have seen him make an incredible throw, and hit a pitch off his shoe tops 430 feet, while if you watched a guy like Giles you might not have noticed his 3 walks and base hit. Power is still king in this game.