Let's talk about the starting pitching

[Torridd]

I've been reading all the posts about adding Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb, Darvish, etc. and I wanted to know if all our potential starters are healthy. I know "you can never have enough pitchers" but is it really worth stockpiling them for a "just-in-case" scenario? I know many of our pitchers are coming off injuries, but is it prudent to invest in more starters right now? 

[HaloCory22]

Of the 7-8 starters we have I trust 0. We need someone dependable. That anchor that we'll know every 5th day they're going to go out there and give us 6 or more innings and keep us in the ball game. I legit can't say I believe any of our current starters can do that. Ohtani obviously has that potential but we'll see how that goes. I'd be much more comfortable with a veteran arm in the rotation. Doesn't have to be Yu or Jake.

[GrittyVeterans]

Well, Heaney and Skaggs struggled last year when healthy. Richards is dominant but has only stayed healthy for a full year once in his MLB career. Ohtani is going to be fine, not worried about him. Shoemaker, Tropeano, Bridwell...bunch of meh there

 

So we have one starter that I fully trust right now

As currently constructed, the season is going to hinge on Heaney and Skaggs' performance and Richards' ability to stay healthy

[Chris]

I think we should take the time in ST and thru May to see if our current starters can stay healthy and effective.  If not maybe we should add one before the trade deadline mid season. 

If some combo of Richards / Skaggs / Heaney can be healthy and effective, this team just got a lot better.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

11 minutes ago, Chris said:

If some combo of Richards / Skaggs / Heaney can be healthy and effective, this team just got a lot better.

No worries this is our year for the entire rotation to show the league we're back, healthy, and ready to kick some ass.

[Angelsfan1984]

17 minutes ago, Chris said:

I think we should take the time in ST and thru May to see if our current starters can stay healthy and effective.  If not maybe we should add one before the trade deadline mid season. 

If some combo of Richards / Skaggs / Heaney can be healthy and effective, this team just got a lot better.

 

The only problem is that games lost in April and May are just as damaging as games lost in September. This is the same reason I dislike Scioscia. He coaches as if things don't matter during april and may when in fact they do. I'm tired of seeing them in a hole coming out of april and playing catchup all year long only to come up 2-3 games short.

[HaloNArizona]

We always talk about the health of our staff, and in some cases (Richards and Skaggs) it is true, and in other cases (Shoe) it's seems to be more of a bad luck thing...

 

Anyways, we complain about the health, but want to sign Darvish, who like Skaggs, Heaney and Trop had TJ surgery.

I think Heaney came back too quickly last year...

With Richards, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe and Bridwell and a six man rotation...I am not as worried as others.  I think the extra rest will benefit our guys.  A full off-season and ST will help Heaney and Skaggs as well.

[Rico]

Cobb and Lynn don't do much for me.  We have depth, what we're going to need is a top end starter for the playoffs.  We could wait until the trade deadline, but it's going to cost prospects.

That is what I like about Darvish.  He wouldn't cost prospects or a draft pick to get.  Just a bunch of money.

[totdprods]

17 hours ago, HaloCory22 said:

Of the 7-8 starters we have I trust 0. We need someone dependable. That anchor that we'll know every 5th day they're going to go out there and give us 6 or more innings and keep us in the ball game. I legit can't say I believe any of our current starters can do that. Ohtani obviously has that potential but we'll see how that goes. I'd be much more comfortable with a veteran arm in the rotation. Doesn't have to be Yu or Jake.

This is the biggest reason for me. I have total faith in the ability of our 7-8 starters, but literally every single one aside from Bridwell and Barria has had major health concerns in the last two years - and with Bridwell's conversion to SP, you never know when that could take a toll (see Ramirez, J.C.). 

I get that every player, especially a pitcher, is a walking injury risk, and that applies to the FAs as well, but...
Richards and Skaggs both seemingly can't go a few starts without something coming up. 
I don't buy that Ohtani's medical records are anything more than typical wear or tear, but no news at all about his UCL would have certainly felt better.
Heaney having shoulder pain late in the year isn't comforting. Hopefully he just rushed back.
Shoemaker, Barria and Bridwell haven't had TJ yet - if I were GM, I'd operate under the assumption that eventually, every SP is going to go through it and have depth just in case.

And, important to remember, these platelet-rich injections that Richards, Ohtani, and Ramirez all had may have helped/healed their UCL issues, but they still weren't replaced like in a TJS. I wouldn't say they're at further risk of it happening, but it's certainly not less risk.

Most of all - there is always some demand for SP on the trade market during the season. Signing a guy like Garcia or Hellickson or Cashner, while redundant, doesn't mean you couldn't flip one to another team in June if everyone's healthy and collect a fringe prospect or a vet reliever or bench player. Or maybe you opt to keep that guy, and flip someone like Bridwell, Tropeano, or Ramirez for a younger, controllable player to fill a need. What if Cozart or Kinsler blows a knee and misses a couple months? Maybe you go back to Philly and do that Skaggs for Hernandez deal.

It's not a bad thing to add to our surplus SP depth. If everyone's healthy, its trade currency we can use to fill needs without moving prospects, and at this points, it looks like you won't be overpaying for any vet SPs, so why not? It's not like that money we'd be spending would be better off on the line-up (which is full) or the bullpen (not much left on the FA RP market) or the bench (those vets will be just as cheap at this point). We can always move starters into the pen too. Maybbe Skaggs becomes the next Andrew Miller or Shoemaker flourishes like Parker did.

The fact that we also already lost two SPs this offseason to season-ending injuries already is a bit ominous too. Hopefully that was the end of the bad run and not a continuation.

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, Rico said:

Cobb and Lynn don't do much for me.  We have depth, what we're going to need is a top end starter for the playoffs.  We could wait until the trade deadline, but it's going to cost prospects.

That is what I like about Darvish.  He wouldn't cost prospects or a draft pick to get.  Just a bunch of money.

If you want a top end starter then I'd suggest not looking into darvish

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

If you want a top end starter then I'd suggest not looking into darvish

I don’t understand why you say that.  He has averaged almost a 4 WAR season, last year he was 3.8.  He had a bad World Series.  He is the only one that doesn’t cost you a draft pick.  He is absolutely a top of the rotation starter.  Is he Sale, Scherzer or Kershaw, no, but he has been pretty damn good.

[Torridd]

18 hours ago, Chris said:

I think we should take the time in ST and thru May to see if our current starters can stay healthy and effective.  If not maybe we should add one before the trade deadline mid season. 

If some combo of Richards / Skaggs / Heaney can be healthy and effective, this team just got a lot better.

 

This is possibly what Eppler is waiting for also.

[Torridd]

2 hours ago, HaloNArizona said:

We always talk about the health of our staff, and in some cases (Richards and Skaggs) it is true, and in other cases (Shoe) it's seems to be more of a bad luck thing...

 

Anyways, we complain about the health, but want to sign Darvish, who like Skaggs, Heaney and Trop had TJ surgery.

I think Heaney came back too quickly last year...

With Richards, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe and Bridwell and a six man rotation...I am not as worried as others.  I think the extra rest will benefit our guys.  A full off-season and ST will help Heaney and Skaggs as well.

This is another issue. Will a 6-man rotation really help our health matters or does one extra day REALLY matter?

[Torridd]

Hey totd, re what you said below, how do you determine how much depth you need? Supposedly, everyone is healthy now. Do you assume that everyone who has been hurt will get hurt again and create depth for each or do you create "regular" depth since they're all currently healthy? If the latter, how much depth do you acquire?

I get that every player, especially a pitcher, is a walking injury risk, and that applies to the FAs as well, but...
Richards and Skaggs both seemingly can't go a few starts without something coming up. 
I don't buy that Ohtani's medical records are anything more than typical wear or tear, but no news at all about his UCL would have certainly felt better.
Heaney having shoulder pain late in the year isn't comforting. Hopefully he just rushed back.
Shoemaker, Barria and Bridwell haven't had TJ yet - if I were GM, I'd operate under the assumption that eventually, every SP is going to go through it and have depth just in case.

[Erstad Grit]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I don’t understand why you say that.  He has averaged almost a 4 WAR season, last year he was 3.8.  He had a bad World Series.  He is the only one that doesn’t cost you a draft pick.  He is absolutely a top of the rotation starter.  Is he Sale, Scherzer or Kershaw, no, but he has been pretty damn good.

3.86 era screams number 3 pitcher to me.  It was in the 4s before switching to the NL.

Also he didn't have a bad world series,  he had the most epic meltdown disastrous  performance I've ever seen.  

Lynn has so much upside.  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Hey totd, re what you said below, how do you determine how much depth you need? Supposedly, everyone is healthy now. Do you assume that everyone who has been hurt will get hurt again and create depth for each or do you create "regular" depth since they're all currently healthy? If the latter, how much depth do you acquire?

One more SP with a track record of MLB durability and success and I'm happy. Doesn't have to be the biggest name or best talent, just someone who projects as being a safe bet for 180 innings of ~4ish ERA ball.

The concern isn't necessarily that everyone will get hurt again, it's that for the most part, Barria is the only one of our 8 SP who has actually pitched a full season in the last two years at any level. We're likely going to need the health of all 8 just to get a full 162 starts, and that's where I start to doubt that all 8 will make it through the year. One more SP gets us 9, and we can claim/trade/sign for a 10th as the year goes on if shit hits the fan.

My other concern is our bullpen (as of now, I expect this to change) is pretty much comprised of guys who are not MLB tested, nor durable. If the SP starts to breakdown, the pen is going to be awfully tested, and relievers are expensive as all hell to acquire lately - and just as volatile. It goes two ways, as SP depth can translate to pen depth as the year goes on. 

Id rather start the year with a safety net of 10 guys and deal from those 10 as the years goes on, rather than eat into the farm to patch up any holes. A lot of these guys are under control for several seasons still and we need them to develop into an effective staff. The world won't end if Heaney, Bridwell, and Tropeano all have to start in SLC for the first few weeks. 

[Erstad Grit]

I think a one year deal for vargas would be wise in case multiple guys start having injuries re-emerge. 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

3.86 era screams number 3 pitcher to me.  It was in the 4s before switching to the NL.

Also he didn't have a bad world series,  he had the most epic meltdown disastrous  performance I've ever seen.  

Lynn has so much upside.  

Ok Lynn is one year younger but, strikes out less, walks more, allows more hits, more home runs, and he had an ERA 1 run higher last year than Darvish, and costs a draft pick and the money that comes with it.  

Edited February 9, 2018 by Stradling

[Erstad Grit]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok Lynn is one year younger but, strikes out less, walks more, allows more hits, more home runs, and he had an ERA 1 run higher last year than Darvish, and costs a draft pick and the money that comes with it.  

Lynn's era was lower,  look it up again.  Also if you compare 2015 and 2016 they were each injured a year but lynn again has a lower era. 

I'm not even campaigning for Lynn,  I'm making a case to pass on darvish.  Since 2014 he's had one injury free year.  Drug problem aside,  he reminds me so much of Josh Hamilton.  

[Mark68]

There are some things you can have too much of (hookers & blow if you're Josh Hamilton).

Pitching is not one of those things.

[Torridd]

6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

There are some things you can have too much of (hookers & blow if you're Josh Hamilton).

Pitching is not one of those things.

I don't know, Mark. You end up stockpiling all these guys to put them in AAA waiting for guys to be hurt. That's fine for young guys, but vets? 

[Mark68]

We have pitchers with minor league options remaining.

[Stradling]

21 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Lynn's era was lower,  look it up again.  Also if you compare 2015 and 2016 they were each injured a year but lynn again has a lower era. 

I'm not even campaigning for Lynn,  I'm making a case to pass on darvish.  Since 2014 he's had one injury free year.  Drug problem aside,  he reminds me so much of Josh Hamilton.  

You are right, I was looking at FIP, which heavily favors Darvish.  I didn’t even mean to look at FIP, I accidentally mistaken it for ERA when I was looking at both of their stats.  My bad.  

[Stradling]

I will go on record saying I would only want to acquire pitching if it is either someone like Darvish that doesn’t cost us a pick, someone with huge upside, like Archer that we would have to trade for, or with the intention of trading one of our guys to get us an upgrade somewhere else for the future.  

[JustATroutFan]

Lynn had a lower ERA in 2015 than Darvish did in 2016 but don't forget that Darvish pitched in a much tougher environment, bandbox ballpark for his home games and in the American League with the DH. Lynn lucked out into having a good ERA last season. There's a reason why he has signed yet despite that shiny ERA.