New Top 30 Prospects from MLB

[John Smith]

MLB PipelineVerified account‏@MLBPipeline

OF Jahmai Jones, 1B Matt Thaiss & OF Brandon Marsh headline brand new #Angels 2017 #Top30Prospects list:

http://atmlb.com/2mttQfR 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=ana

Breaking down the Angels' Top 30 list

More than half of the Halos' prospects could hit the bigs by 2018

 

[Second Base]

Given the frequency and relatively laughable accuracy of MLB.com's top Angels prospects, I'm pretty sure a few times a year they just look at other sites top prospect lists and recreate theirs to look less embarrassing. Like oops we missed on Middleton, Banuelos, Grendell, Pounders and Hermosillo, better remake it so that we can be taken seriously again.

[eaterfan]

I think they got Jim Callis from BA to come work for them.

[John Smith]

5 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Given the frequency and relatively laughable accuracy of MLB.com's top Angels prospects, I'm pretty sure a few times a year they just look at other sites top prospect lists and recreate theirs to look less embarrassing. Like oops we missed on Middleton, Banuelos, Grendell, Pounders and Hermosillo, better remake it so that we can be taken seriously again.

Jim CallisVerified account‏@jimcallisMLB Feb 1

We do full updates in February and July. After those, we add players when others come off due to graduation, trades, etc.

[Inside Pitch]

Things are changing...

 

[Dugout]

 Sometimes I think that these folks just look at stats. There is so much more to a 18 or 19 year old kid learning to play baseball in the dessert. Some guys are learning a new position, and some are struggling with their new hitting methods. If a kid is very athletic and doing a lot of things right, and the coaches see him as coach-able and willing to make adjustments, then he and his .230 average will be well regarded over a .260 hitter with less projection to the organization. But I agree with Scotty that these rankings are duplicated at times.....even the wording.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Things are changing...

 

Trout, Segura, Richards, Grichuk, Cron, Bedrosian....

We used to be pretty solid, even when we weren't ranked that high. But 2014 might've been the weakest system I've ever seen.

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Trout, Segura, Richards, Grichuk, Cron, Bedrosian....

We used to be pretty solid, even when we weren't ranked that high. But 2014 might've been the weakest system I've ever seen.

Those lists don't even mention Calhoun or Shoemaker.    It wasn't flashy but it was productive....  

 

[Second Base]

This will tell how how valuable farm system rankings are. In 2012, the Toronto Blue Jays had the top rated farm system in baseball and it was consensus. The Angels were ranked generally 15-20. 

So I guess what I'm saying is, Travis D'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino and Deck McGuire are better than Mike Trout, Jean Segura, Garrett Richards, CJ Cron, Kole Calhoun and Matt Shoemaker....

There's just a huge disparity in where these guys are as prospects vs who they become as major leaguers.

I don't believe it's random, or luck as much as I believe there's a limited amount of information out there and everyone is copying off each other. One trusted source doesn't like a player so the rest don't like him. 

The fact is the Angels probably had the best farm system for a while there, and if it wasn't the best, it was darn near close to it. And all we heard about was Mike Trout and a bunch of also rans. The ones who saw it coming we're team specific sites, and those can't be trusted because everyone else thinks they're the best too. 

[Angelsjunky]

Ahhh...Trevor Reckling, Nick Maronde, Daniel Tillman...the ghost of mediocrity's past...

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

This will tell how how valuable farm system rankings are. In 2012, the Toronto Blue Jays had the top rated farm system in baseball and it was consensus. The Angels were ranked generally 15-20. 

So I guess what I'm saying is, Travis D'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino and Deck McGuire are better than Mike Trout, Jean Segura, Garrett Richards, CJ Cron, Kole Calhoun and Matt Shoemaker....

There's just a huge disparity in where these guys are as prospects vs who they become as major leaguers.

I don't believe it's random, or luck as much as I believe there's a limited amount of information out there and everyone is copying off each other. One trusted source doesn't like a player so the rest don't like him. 

The fact is the Angels probably had the best farm system for a while there, and if it wasn't the best, it was darn near close to it. And all we heard about was Mike Trout and a bunch of also rans. The ones who saw it coming we're team specific sites, and those can't be trusted because everyone else thinks they're the best too. 

lot's true here.  

to me, it's risk management.  It's mostly boiler plate algorithms.  Top 10 pick?  55-60 grade.  10-20 pick and drafted where expected? 50-55 grade.  2nd round or lower? 50 grade.  2nd round and performing really well for age vs. level?  55 grade.  Int high profile signing?  50-55 grade.  Performed well?  55.  Unheralded int prospect doing well? 50 grade.  Guy drafted in the 3rd through 20th who have done decently?  45-50.  Guys who round out the middle of your system as well as your random int signings who have done ok or decently?  40-45.  

How much of Grayson Long, Jaime Barria, Elvin Rodriguez, Troy Montgomery and Kevin Grendell has anyone one of these national pundits seen?    Did they mention that Cole Duensing gained 20lbs this off season?  If Mike Hermosillo was a first round pick and did what he did last year, where would he be ranked?  

90% of these rankings are relative to the players starting point.  That largely will make you right though.  

The good news is that is doesn't really matter.  Regardless of where someone is ranked, they are either going to provide value to your franchise or they aren't.  A very important part of this whole process isn't about what some national publication thinks, but what the team thinks.  Eduardo Paredes may be the 16th ranked prospect in the halos system according to mlb, but if the Angels see him as an elite 8th inning guy and he ends up actually being that then it doesn't matter.  

Joe Gatto was regarded as one of our top 3 for a couple of years.  Now he's 25.  

The other thing you have to ask is what are you actually ranking.  Is a potentially dominant reliever worth as much as an 18yo position player or a potential #4 starter or a high floor infielder who is likely to be a util guy?

I believe that 16 of our top 30 are potential major league contributors.  Does that make me a homer or someone who might actually know a bit that some random collection of evaluators?  Does my experience matter?  Probably.  But do you trust the guy who's seen the goods and isn't as experienced or the guy who's experienced but hasn't seen the goods?

Playing the odds works a lot of the time.  But you are going to miss the most important part.  The part where you see something different because you actually watched.  

I don't blame mlb for their rankings.  They are probably appropriately risk managed.  But that's boring and normal.  And it's never going to be right.   

[Angel Oracle]

I am truly now seeing how biased against the Halos the various farm rankings may have been.   Scotty's post shows that point, comparing the 2012 Halos farm to the 2012 Jays farm.

All I care about is how player progression is going, and that all avenues are being utilized to the best of the Halos' abilities. 

It makes one wonder what the org did to piss off the various sites.  (joke)

Seriously though, baseball is different from other sports because there are so many more players drafted than in any other sport.   It has to be a challenge to effectively rank so many players across the minors.

[Inside Pitch]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't blame mlb for their rankings.  They are probably appropriately risk managed.  But that's boring and normal.  And it's never going to be right.   

This is the deal for me -- I don't blame the rankings, I just understand what they are and know what they measure.   Lastings Milledge will always grade out better than Kole Calhoun because those tools were real and IF they ever translated -- ohhh boy...    Not everyone is able to turn physical tools into baseball skill...  and that's an area prospect rankings struggle to measure.   

When push comes to shove you're absolutely right -- they play the same odds vegas would...   because outliers aren't where the smart money is.

[Inside Pitch]

36 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I am truly now seeing how biased against the Halos the various farm rankings may have been.   Scotty's post shows that point, comparing the 2012 Halos farm to the 2012 Jays farm.

To be fair -- the Jays had a lot more guys in the system than the ones he's mentioned.   Snydergaard, Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Stroman, Adeiney Hechevaria,  Anthony DeSclafani.  You pretty much have an entire MLB starting rotation there -- including a legit Cy Young type.

The strength of the system wasn't just in their top 10, but in their extreme depth top to bottom.   Not unlike the Angels number one ranked farm system that saw most of the top guys flame out but then Naps, Howie, Aybar, Kendrys etc etc all hit.

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

To be fair -- the Jays had a lot more guys in the system than the ones he's mentioned.   Snydergaard, Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Stroman, Adeiney Hechevaria,  Anthony DeSclafani.  You pretty much have an entire MLB starting rotation there -- including a legit Cy Young type.

The strength of the system wasn't just in their top 10, but in their extreme depth top to bottom.   Not unlike the Angels number one ranked farm system that saw most of the top guys flame out but then Naps, Howie, Aybar, Kendrys etc etc all hit.

That is true, I did purposely ignore guys outside of their top 5 to make a point.

But I wonder, what's MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' angle? If they're all reporting the same information, and aren't taking any chances or breaking new ground, why are they doing it? 

My guess is readers, money, reputation perhaps. But it still means that they'll miss every Kole Calhoun and Matt Shoemaker. Makes me wonder who they're missing now. Probably Sherman Johnson.

[greginpsca]

i think a teams scouting department should be rated by how many major leaguers it has produced, not by who they drafted that are still in the minors.

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

That is true, I did purposely ignore guys outside of their top 5 to make a point.

But I wonder, what's MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' angle? If they're all reporting the same information, and aren't taking any chances or breaking new ground, why are they doing it? 

My guess is readers, money, reputation perhaps. But it still means that they'll miss every Kole Calhoun and Matt Shoemaker. Makes me wonder who they're missing now. Probably Sherman Johnson.

yup.  get hits on the website.  drive traffic.  create a buzz.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, greginpsca said:

i think a teams scouting department should be rated by how many major leaguers it has produced, not by who they drafted that are still in the minors.

there is a lot of turnover and team switching.  Part of the problem is that you don't know if your method works for several years.  

we are happy with Epplers way so far, but what do we really know?  He moved the team away from high floor drafts and picked some raw, athletic, high upside guys.  We like Marsh and Williams etc, but those guys are 5 years away.  He's been picking up former top prospects and guys with big arms to provide depth for the org.  I like it, but it hasn't worked yet.  

All of the things he's done make sense and should work, but right now it's theoretical and they will only work if the players perform.  So it comes down to whether the scouts are correct.  

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

That is true, I did purposely ignore guys outside of their top 5 to make a point.

But I wonder, what's MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' angle? If they're all reporting the same information, and aren't taking any chances or breaking new ground, why are they doing it? 

My guess is readers, money, reputation perhaps. But it still means that they'll miss every Kole Calhoun and Matt Shoemaker. Makes me wonder who they're missing now. Probably Sherman Johnson.

Your point was perfectly valid, I wasn't trying to say you were trying to be disingenuous or anything.  

I brought up out number one ranking because a lot of people have in the past dismissed it because of how Mathis, Casey, D-Mac, and B Wood ended up..    Fact is, that system's strength was it's ridiculous depth....   It was so good that all the top guys could flame out and yet the ones they thought less of carried a franchise for a decade.

The Angels have been severely underrated farm wise for a long long time.  I think some of that is the reality that until Trout they never really produced a superstar, but they have always been very good at producing players -- even prior to Stoneman.