Time to get moving

[jgimondo]

The Astros just improved big time , Eppler needs to get moving.

[Hubs]

Josh Reddick is an major improvement? The guy had a .749 OPS last year, and a .781 the year before that.

He's a liability against lefties (.640 OPS, .218 BA) and is not an exceptional defender, though he's not a liability either. 

 

Relax.

[Hubs]

I prefer Maybin honestly, and the commitment is much less if he doesn't work out.

 

[Hubs]

And as far as McCann, how much of an upgrade is he over Castro?

 

[totdprods]

McCann is a pretty big upgrade over Castro. They have a very potent catching combo, but also a pretty old one with some defensive liabilities. Reddick will also be a good move for them I think. They have been a very righty-heavy team, and a rookie team, for awhile. The vet leadership will help keep them more consistent IMHO. I live here in Texas and Houston was the NL team I would root for until crossed over but I still follow them. 

I also think they have one more big move in them still. 

That said, I don't think the Angels should be too reactionary to this. The Mariners, Astros, and Rangers are all still above us. I think we can compete in the AL West next season and definitely the Wild Card, but I don't want us to overspend in an attempt to leapfrog 3 teams. I think we have one more solid acquisition ahead of us this winter - a sizable trade, Turner, Nova, Jansen, or a combo of multiple mid-tier guys - but otherwise still play it safe.

Let the other three spend and trade prospects away in an attempt to beat each other for another year. We will have a better farm, more payroll flexibility, a good core, and returning players from the DL in one year and a lot more flexibility for major acquisitions.

[Hubs]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

McCann is a pretty big upgrade over Castro. They have a very potent catching combo, but also a pretty old one with some defensive liabilities. Reddick will also be a good move for them I think. They have been a very righty-heavy team, and a rookie team, for awhile. The vet leadership will help keep them more consistent IMHO. I live here in Texas and Houston was the NL team I would root for until crossed over but I still follow them. 

I also think they have one more big move in them still. 

That said, I don't think the Angels should be too reactionary to this. The Mariners, Astros, and Rangers are all still above us. I think we can compete in the AL West next season and definitely the Wild Card, but I don't want us to overspend in an attempt to leapfrog 3 teams. I think we have one more solid acquisition ahead of us this winter - a sizable trade, Turner, Nova, Jansen, or a combo of multiple mid-tier guys - but otherwise still play it safe.

Let the other three spend and trade prospects away in an attempt to beat each other for another year. We will have a better farm, more payroll flexibility, a good core, and returning players from the DL in one year and a lot more flexibility for major acquisitions.

I disagree. McCann may be an upgrade over Castro offensively, because despite three sub par offensive seasons in a row, he still has that one All-Star offensive season. McCann and Castro are both left handed. Also, if Reddick replaces Rasmus, thats also a one for one lefty switch. So, they'll be better, but not drastically better. Marginally better. And as far as them being light years above us, this division is wide open. A player like Turner or Dozier or Hernandez instead of Pennington and Giavotella and Maybin instead of the laughing stock of left fielders we had last year is a HUGE improvement. YUUUUGE. Add in Chavez who should be at least what Weaver gave us last season, plus Richards hopefully being back to full strength, equals a very competitive team. 

The Mariners won 86 games last year, and I don't see a YUGE improvement there with Danny Valencia. And The Rangers vastly outperformed their metrics, while the Angels under performed.

Health, and few key additions, plus a little luck and better performance against our metrics equals the front runner in the West. Not just competitive.

 

 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The Mariners won 86 games last year, and I don't see a YUGE improvement there with Danny Valencia. And The Rangers vastly outperformed their metrics, while the Angels under performed.

Health, and few key additions, plus a little luck and better performance against our metrics equals the front runner in the West. Not just competitive.

The Mariners aren't done adding, and I doubt the Rangers are either either. Astros still have the prospects to pursue one of the top SPs. 

I never said those teams were light years ahead of us. I think they are a step ahead of us for sure, but not light years. The biggest obstacle isn't one of those teams, it's the fact that there are three of them. 

I think the Rangers, as of now, are skating on thin ice and could be a year away from wondering what the hell happened. Darvish could be a free agent, Hamels fell apart the last couple months, and they're relying heavily on some risky players and a farm that I feel is vastly overrated. I actually think the Mariners will be very dangerous next year. Dipoto seems to be very good at raising the floor of a team quickly and quick-fixing areas of need, but really guts the depth of a team and rolls the dice on band-aid solutions too often. They have good pitching and good hitting, but a lot of miles on Felix's arm and a lot of reliance on older bats. The Astros have classic young-team syndrome. A lot of talent but prone to playing over their heads and then going through stretches of pressing too hard. I think their GM is garbage though, and could see them torpedoing their chances by eating away their farm before its fruits come to bear.

I think those three teams will subtract enough from their depth and payroll that one or two of them will be in rough shape in one year, whereas we will have much more flexibility and a growing farm. Now you're looking at an Angels team right in the mix. And I still think we're a reasonably priced pen arm, a 2B, and a cheap innings-eater away from being an 85-90 win team in '17.

[Hubs]

Our farm has a long way to go to be a top farm system. The Astros are top three while the Rangers, A's and Mariners are all middle of the pack.

We have Trout under contract for four more years. Now is the time to compete. NOW. We have a solid core and would've likely finished in the race had we not had so many pitching injuries.

We need a 2nd Baseman, a 4th OF, and a veteran reliever. An offensive upgrade at C is also possible, but I'd be wary of giving too much money to Wilson Ramos. I said it earlier this offseason, drop 50-75 runs from the runs allowed and add 50-75 to the runs scored and we're in the playoffs. Comfortably. Richards back and Chavez is a start. Adding Maybin was a good next step. Now lets keep moving forward.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

And as far as McCann, how much of an upgrade is he over Castro?

Brian McCann last 3 years (162 game average): .235/.313/.418/.731 99 OPS+, 28 HRs, 91 RBIs, 56 BB, 110 K, 5.5 WAR (total)
Jason Castro last 3 years (162 game average): .215/.291/.369/.660 84 OPS+, 17 HRs, 57 RBIs, 53 BB, 184 K, 4.0 WAR (total)

He's an upgrade, particularly offensively. Definitely a step down defensively though.

Josh Reddick, last 3 years (162 game average): .273/.332/.434/.766 113 OPS+, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 51 BB, 80 K, 9.8 WAR (total)
Colby Rasmus, last 3 years (162 game average): .224/.297/.428/.725 100 OPS+, 28 HR, 73 RBI, 56 BB, 186 K, 5.8 WAR (total)

A significant upgrade.

A huge problem for the Astros offense is they struck out too much, and didn't get on base enough. These two moves definitely address that. They basically just took off 170 strikeouts per year from the team, and with their speed and athleticism between Correa, Springer, Marisnick, and Altuve, putting the ball in play that much more often is a big deal.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Our farm has a long way to go to be a top farm system. The Astros are top three while the Rangers, A's and Mariners are all middle of the pack.

We have Trout under contract for four more years. Now is the time to compete. NOW. We have a solid core and would've likely finished in the race had we not had so many pitching injuries.

We need a 2nd Baseman, a 4th OF, and a veteran reliever. An offensive upgrade at C is also possible, but I'd be wary of giving too much money to Wilson Ramos. I said it earlier this offseason, drop 50-75 runs from the runs allowed and add 50-75 to the runs scored and we're in the playoffs. Comfortably. Richards back and Chavez is a start. Adding Maybin was a good next step. Now lets keep moving forward.

We can compete now, but what moves can we really make this offseason without absolutely destroying the farm or backing the payroll into a corner where there's zero flexibility for 2018-2021? Personally I think they should still spend big on one impact player - go get Jansen or Turner (play him at second for one year, keep Escobar) or sign Nova and swing a deal for Hernandez without losing Jones - and then grab Alex Avila and his OBP skills at catcher (giving you some flexibility to deal a catcher if necessary), another mid-priced reliever, and then pluck a very speedy, left-handed, OBP-oriented 4th OF in the Rule V that could develop into a lead-off hitter/Maybin replacement for '18. None of that would break the bank and it would give us a very balanced team without any glaring holes, and without sacrificing chingos of payroll or prospects.

[Hubs]

Defensively though a downgrade. 

Similarly Maybin is as big of an upgrade over the last three years in left field, if he continues what he was doing in Detroit instead of what he did the two years previous. 

Turner or Dozier would be a massive offensive upgrade. 

 

I like your moves in the last post. I'm not sold on Bandy/Perez/Graterol. I see an upgrade there as well. Even if they just brought back Soto.

 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Defensively though a downgrade. 

Similarly Maybin is as big of an upgrade over the last three years in left field, if he continues what he was doing in Detroit instead of what he did the two years previous. 

Turner or Dozier would be a massive offensive upgrade. 

 

I like your moves in the last post. I'm not sold on Bandy/Perez/Graterol. I see an upgrade there as well. Even if they just brought back Soto.

 

If Soto was more healthy I'd be all for it. Nothing against Perez or Bandy - I think both are great - but both also had some significant slumps last season, and I'm a little worried Bandy's was the result of the league catching up to him and that he was playing a bit over his head. With Ward showing some promise in the second half and the AFL, I think we are deep enough on young catchers that it's just about the only area of depth we could comfortably deal from. Catching is still at a premium out there, and I think we could fill a need by dealing one of them. I'm also find rotating them throughout the season between SLC and Anaheim, and leaning on a vet. Alex Avila has a career .350 OBP, hits left-handed, is good defensively, and would be a great pick-up. I think we can afford one big splash, and I think we have enough need in the pen and 2B that grabbing Turner or Jansen** is worth the money and the draft pick - sucks losing one, but at least the 1st round is protected, and we're probably in a position where we'd be needing to deal the equivalent of that 2nd round draft choice from our farm to find an improvement anyways. 

**Conversely, you could probably snag two mid-tier relievers instead of Jansen - such as Cecil, Logan, Dunn, Blevins, Wood, and one of Feliz, Hunter, Hudson, Hochevar, Holland, Barrett - and it'd be far less risky and expensive, but also maybe not as much of an impact.

Probably out of money at this point, so try and grab a 4th OF who is fast, left-handed, and can draw a walk and hope he's the next Odubel Herrera.

Next offseason is much better in free agency. Save our money for then.

[bloodbrother]

Last thing the ANgels need to do is make moves in reaction to other teams in the division making moves. That's how they ended up "stealing" Josh Hamilton away from the Rangers and it's how they ended up trading for Wells after the Rangers got Beltre

Astros sucked for years and built up their farm and it's bearing fruit right now. ANgels are not in the Astros position. Just need to stick with what's best for their own team and their long-term future

[TroutField]

I like the idea of signing Turner to play 3rd and then flipping Escobar for a reliever. Try to get a deal done for Hernandez with one of our Catchers the centerpiece of that deal whether it be Perez, Bandy, or Ward. Then we could grab another good closer to pair with the arm we got back for Escobar. Sign a starter like Nova and that's a really solid offseason. 

1. Hernandez 2B

2. Calhoun RF

3. Trout CF

4. Pujols DH

5. Turner 3B

6. Cron 1B

7. Simmons SS

8. Perez/Bandy/FA C

9. Maybin LF

 

1. Richards

2. Shoe

3. Skaggs

4. Nolasco

5. Nova 

thats a really solid offense to pair with a deeper and more talented starting rotation (compared to what we were running out after the injuries last year) and a much improved bullpen. That's at least a wild card team and definitely competes for the division. 

No idea if the Phils are in need of catching help. 

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, TroutField said:

I like the idea of signing Turner to play 3rd and then flipping Escobar for a reliever. Try to get a deal done for Hernandez with one of our Catchers the centerpiece of that deal whether it be Perez, Bandy, or Ward. Then we could grab another good closer to pair with the arm we got back for Escobar. Sign a starter like Nova and that's a really solid offseason. 

1. Hernandez 2B
2. Calhoun RF
3. Trout CF
4. Pujols DH
5. Turner 3B
6. Cron 1B
7. Simmons SS
8. Perez/Bandy/FA C
9. Maybin LF

1. Richards
2. Shoe
3. Skaggs
4. Nolasco
5. Nova 

thats a really solid offense to pair with a deeper and more talented starting rotation (compared to what we were running out after the injuries last year) and a much improved bullpen. That's at least a wild card team and definitely competes for the division. 

No idea if the Phils are in need of catching help. 

Don't think we can afford both Turner and Nova, and I don't think the Phils need a catcher enough to build a deal around one of ours. They have a couple good in-house options already with Rupp and Alfaro. I also don't think Escobar is going to bring back much of anything - even a reliever. It'll either be a low-level minor league lotto pick prospect, a fringe 40-man prospect, or a bad contract swap - someone like a Phil Hughes. 

[DMVol]

15 hours ago, Hubs said:

....Similarly Maybin is as big of an upgrade over the last three years in left field, if he continues what he was doing in Detroit instead of what he did the two years previous.....

Maybin was really good the first half of 2015 with the Braves....I think he had a minor injury (not totally sure about that) and came back in the second half and slumped some....If he can put together his first half of 2015 with the Braves and his 2016 with the Tigers, we've got a steal....

[Troll Daddy]

No doubt the Stro's got better ... but Eppler has been doing some moving himself. It's good hearing that Turner is on our wishlist. Just for the simple fact that the FO is looking to spend $$$.

 

 

[TroutField]

51 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Don't think we can afford both Turner and Nova, and I don't think the Phils need a catcher enough to build a deal around one of ours. They have a couple good in-house options already with Rupp and Alfaro. I also don't think Escobar is going to bring back much of anything - even a reliever. It'll either be a low-level minor league lotto pick prospect, a fringe 40-man prospect, or a bad contract swap - someone like a Phil Hughes. 

How much do you think Turner's contract will turn out to be? Nova should get somewhere around 3-36 I would think. Thanks for the info about the phils I don't know other team's minor league systems very well. It's crazy how nobody wants Escobar, who is a perennial .300 hitter with a good OBP.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, TroutField said:

How much do you think Turner's contract will turn out to be? Nova should get somewhere around 3-36 I would think. Thanks for the info about the phils I don't know other team's minor league systems very well. It's crazy how nobody wants Escobar, who is a perennial .300 hitter with a good OBP.

I think he's gonna get around $15-18m for 4-5 years. I think Nova will be just below that - with Hellickson off market, he's arguably one of the best arms available and think he's looking at $12-15m for 3-4 years. Jansen will land in the $15-18m range too I think, maybe even more $$$ for a shorter length deal. We can afford one from that tier - but it will start to limit our flexibility elsewhere. Not impossibly, but really stinks our margin of error and puts us in a position where we need to sign our other FA targets for a price we're comfortable with. If they demand more or go elsewhere, we back ourselves into a corner and start going cheap on those needs.

I think the lack of a market for Escobar is because no one really has a need at 3rd for a truly one-dimensional player. Everyone either has a better option already, or someone well-rounded they'd rather take a chance on. I struggle to think of any team that really could use him.

[Troll Daddy]

I can think of one team that really could use Escobar. 

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I can think of one team that really could use Escobar. 

Well?

[Troll Daddy]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Well?

Angels 

and if the Dogs whiff on Turner ?

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Angels 

I'm totally fine keeping Escobar for a year. If Turner is down (and able) to play 2B for a season (or 1B, dealing Cron) I am totally okay with that set up. I'm in no hurry to move Escobar unless there is a clear and solid trade out there involving him and someone like Turner or even Valbuena replacing him. I am not comfortable with Cowart or Marte being the replacement, unless we are doing something major elsewhere at 2B, SP, RP, maybe C.

[bloodbrother]

Angels sign Turner

Angels trade Escobar to Dodgers for Kershaw

It's genius

[Troll Daddy]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I'm totally fine keeping Escobar for a year. If Turner is down (and able) to play 2B for a season (or 1B, dealing Cron) I am totally okay with that set up. I'm in no hurry to move Escobar unless there is a clear and solid trade out there involving him and someone like Turner or even Valbuena replacing him.

Why wouldn't Turner be able?

btw a lot of things need to happen to get to that point#doubtful