Mike Trout actually sucks

[Taylor]

Nice try, AJ. We all know what you're trying to do, but this won't work.

[Ohtaniland]

Will Trout ever have a 200 hit season as a Angel?

[kevinb]

27 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Will Trout ever have a 200 hit season as a Angel?

I thought he already did but guess not. His best year was his year 20 and 21 seasons 

[Amazing Larry]

22 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Kevin attending a game is the same bad luck as scott34 shaking hands

Stop going to the games kevin. (Unless you have kids that just enjoy the fun atmosphere)

First thing I thought of when I clicked this thread.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

I thought he already did but guess not. His best year was his year 20 and 21 seasons 

This is why I question the idea that he's not yet in his peak. It could be that he already peaked, and is now in a "plateau phase" that will last the rest of his peak range (through his 20s). According to WAR his 20-21 seasons were better than his 22-24 seasons. Players don't usually take a step back for a few years and then take two steps forward. I think the most likely scenario is that he stabilizes in the 8-9 WAR range, with maybe one or two seasons above that. But we've probably seen the last of 10+ WAR Trout.

I suppose it is possible that his hitting improves, but with inevitable gradual erosion to speed and defense, it will be breaking even in terms of WAR. It is also quite possible that he doesn't improve his hitting, given that he's been pretty consistent so far and hasn't taken that big step forward that a lot of great players take around age 24-25.

[kevinb]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

This is why I question the idea that he's not yet in his peak. It could be that he already peaked, and is now in a "plateau phase" that will last the rest of his peak range (through his 20s). According to WAR his 20-21 seasons were better than his 22-24 seasons. Players don't usually take a step back for a few years and then take two steps forward. I think the most likely scenario is that he stabilizes in the 8-9 WAR range, with maybe one or two seasons above that. But we've probably seen the last of 10+ WAR Trout.

I suppose it is possible that his hitting improves, but with inevitable gradual erosion to speed and defense, it will be breaking even in terms of WAR. It is also quite possible that he doesn't improve his hitting, given that he's been pretty consistent so far and hasn't taken that big step forward that a lot of great players take around age 24-25.

Ok I don't know this and I'm not a big war person. But from the eye Trouts awesome in center he doesn't have a canon but it's good enough. Does war have him as a top centerfielder or does it not go into detail like that on defense and it just goes off outfield? 

[Stradling]

Trout is average defensively according to WAR.  

[kevinb]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Trout is average defensively according to WAR.  

So is average a 0 war? And then that would mean he gets all his war from batting? Sorry prob dumb questions. 

[Angelsjunky]

The breakdown is as follows. According to Fangraphs, Trout gets 40.6 Runs Above Replacement (RAR) from batting, 7.2 from baserunning, 0.6 from fielding, 1.1 from positional adjustment, so 47.8 from offense and 1.7 from defense. He then gets a league adjustment of +2.0 and +15.8 for "replacement runs," which is based upon plate appearances.So his total Runs Above Replacelment (RAR) is 67.2, which translates to 6.9 WAR.

If we look at batting only, Trout's 40.6 is second in the majors behind Altuve, who is at 47.4, and just ahead of David Ortiz, who is at 39.5. But Ortiz has a total WAR of 3.8--almost half that of Trout--because he gets negative value for baserunning (-6.6) and positional adjustment (-11.5). Trout and Altuve have similar defensive value, with Trout having a slight edge, and Trout is a much better baserunner, which more than evens out the difference in their hitting.

So put that another way, Trout and Ortiz have had similar value as hitters, but Trout is a very good baserunner and plays above average defense at a premium position, and has a few more PA to boot, so has +3.1 WAR on Ortiz. Altuve has been a better hitter this year, but a slightly worse defender and a much worse baserunner, so they end up very similar in total WAR (6.9 for Trout, 6.8 for Altuve).

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, CALZONE said:

Will Trout ever have a 200 hit season as a Angel?

It is probably unlikely. His highest was 190 in 2013 when he hit .323. He'd have to walk less and/or hit for a higher average to do so. I think he's going to walk 100+ times a year going forward, so he'd have to hit around .330 to get to 200 hits.

[Ohtaniland]

Mike Trout is a jack of all trades but a master of none.

 

[Stradling]

Except baseball. 

[kevinb]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The breakdown is as follows. According to Fangraphs, Trout gets 40.6 Runs Above Replacement (RAR) from batting, 7.2 from baserunning, 0.6 from fielding, 1.1 from positional adjustment, so 47.8 from offense and 1.7 from defense. He then gets a league adjustment of +2.0 and +15.8 for "replacement runs," which is based upon plate appearances.So his total Runs Above Replacelment (RAR) is 67.2, which translates to 6.9 WAR.

If we look at batting only, Trout's 40.6 is second in the majors behind Altuve, who is at 47.4, and just ahead of David Ortiz, who is at 39.5. But Ortiz has a total WAR of 3.8--almost half that of Trout--because he gets negative value for baserunning (-6.6) and positional adjustment (-11.5). Trout and Altuve have similar defensive value, with Trout having a slight edge, and Trout is a much better baserunner, which more than evens out the difference in their hitting.

So put that another way, Trout and Ortiz have had similar value as hitters, but Trout is a very good baserunner and plays above average defense at a premium position, and has a few more PA to boot, so has +3.1 WAR on Ortiz. Altuve has been a better hitter this year, but a slightly worse defender and a much worse baserunner, so they end up very similar in total WAR (6.9 for Trout, 6.8 for Altuve).

How do they calculate good base running. Is it mostly steals runs scored and outs on the base paths? Because there's no way someone is watching every game I'm guessing? How is altuve worse on the base paths? He had more stolen bases so do stolen bases not count as much because you could potentially any thrown out more? So are station to station base runners more valued in that saber metric war type thinking?