The over/under

[Docwaukee]

There is quite a bit of predicting in baseball these days.  With all the stats available, it's the thing to do.  Two of the most popular are ZiPS and Steamer.  With any predictions comes vitriol, hand wringing and validation!  Where do you stand?

So I will give the zips and steamer WAR predictions for our major position players.  Give me your over/spot on/under, and why.   

 

Trout 8.5/9.0 - so hard to predict.  I was worried after 2014 that the league has 'figured him out' but he laid that to rest.  But even the inner circle HOF guys had years that just weren't as good as others.  Is this the year?  Or is this one of his aberrative years in the other direction where it all comes together and he puts up historical numbers.  My prediction?  spot on

 

Calhoun 2.6/2.7 - I think he left some on the table last year.  He got a little hr happy and he's gonna have a prime season.  My prediction?  Over.  

 

Pujols 2.6/1.4 - does Albert overcome his own demons and start hitting again instead of slugging?  I don't think so.  That coupled with his injury risk is a big concern for me.  My prediction? the under.  

 

Simmons 3.4/3.6 - Simmons is gonna do what he does.  My prediction? spot on

 

Escobar 1.3/1.5 - this seems like a pretty conservative estimate for Yunel.  Probably because he was such a butcher at 3b last year.  I think his defense improve s though and his offense doesn't drop off to the extent that some would predict.  My prediction?  the over, but not by much

 

Perez 0.8/1.1 - he had over that in limited at bats last year and is still improving.  My prediction? the over.  

 

Gentry 0.8/0.2 - somewhere in between seems about right.  My prediction? spot on

 

Gia 0.6/0.8 - if his defense keeps him in the lineup, then his bat will play.  the dude can hit.  My prediction? the over, and potentially by quite a bit.

 

Nava 0.4/0.3 - the guy had a bad half a season.  otherwise he's been pretty decent and a good bet to be solid.  My prediction?  the over

 

Cron 0.4/0.5 - it's tough for a DH to accumulate value and even if he breaks out, his WAR isn't going to be much higher than that.  My prediction? spot on

 

Richards 3.6/3.0 - I think we need him to be better than this, but in all likelihood he's gonna be around this.  My prediction? spot on

 

Heaney 2.5/1.8 - I have my concerns here.  Especially if he doesn't start missing bats like he did in the minors.  I think he's gonna have a tough year.  My prediction? the under

 

Shoemaker 1.7/1.1 - Love Matt, but I don't think he ends up in the rotation for very long.  My prediction? the under

 

Santiago 1.3/1.5 - WAR hates Hector, but I think that changes this year.  My prediction? the over

 

Tropeano 1.5/0.4 - Steamer doesn't like him but mostly by sheer volume.  I think he ends up near his Zips number.  My prediction? spot on (the higher of the two)

 

Weaver 0.6/0.1 - I think we all know where this is going. My prediction? spot on.  

 

Wilson 1.4/1.2 -  Will he even pitch this year?  Who the hell knows.  My prediction? the under.  

 

Skaggs 1.1/0.7 - we need him big time.  And I think he's gonna step up.  My prediction?  the over.  

 

 

[ABC]

Over on all except Wilson.

[arch stanton]

Pujols/Cron/Choi are tough to predict individually because you don't know how much any of them will play 1B as opposed to DH but I think somehow Sosh will find a way to give some of Cron's ABs to Choi. So I'll just say the trio, between 1B and DH,will be around 4.5 to 5.

 

I think once CJ starts pitching he'll be pretty good so he'll go over.

[Angel Oracle]

Nibs - under and DONE

Shoulder issue will prove to be worse than originally thought.

Edited March 24, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[itsTroutahere]

Even though I consider myself a sabermatrician, hate individual predictions as it relates to WAR. 

 

I would rather focus on how that individual would better serve the TEAM within his capabilities.  As a TEAM I will take the Over and pass on prediction of the individuals performance.

[ABC]

Managers should also get a WAR.

[Stradling]

If so then wouldn't Sosh's WAR be very good the last two years? Last year because we won 85 games with below league average offense and below league average pitching. Then obviously in 2014 we won 98 games and there's no way we were predicted to win 98 games.

[Troll Daddy]

The Scioscia love around here is pretty pathetic.

[Stradling]

I was under the impression that most people in here didn't like Scioscia.

They don't, he just happens to be an idiot, and quite possibly a troll.

[Troll Daddy]

They don't, he just happens to be an idiot, and quite possibly a troll.

So name calling is ok ... this is what your life has become now.

[Stradling]

It's either that or just delete your account since you are a troll, harmless but still a troll. You know there is no reason to say "all the Scioscia love here is pathetic" when you were responding to me and you also know that EVERYONE here shits on Scioscia.