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Who knew? WAR: ARod, Trout, Pujols, Heyward(?)


Cycled314

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I gotta be honest, I never got the sense last year that I was watching the 2nd coming of 25 year old Albert Pujols/ARod ... certainly not Mike Trout.

 

How exactly is the WAR below calculated? 

 

It kind of looks like heavy-handed Cubs publicity or Page 1 of Jason Heyward's Agent Negotiation Binder.

 

 

WAR-ARod-Trout-Pujols-then-Heyward.png

 

My numbers showed he was a good ballplayer this year ... certainly not as good as the company above.

 

Heyward 2015 play distribution

 

Heyward-PlayDistrib-2015-630-361.png

 

More in this thread:

http://www.angelswin-forum.com/forums/topic/19715-scorecards-summaries/

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When you look at the disclaimer (through age 25 season), it makes absolute sense. Most players are just cracking the majors at about 24-25. So the rare few who are up in their early twenties (or in A-Rod's case, late teens) are just really good at a really early age. Heyward was a starter at 20 on a playoff team.

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Actually I do incorporate baserunning but I wasn't comparing WAR to what I do ... my stuff is still raw because I'm doing it entirely by myself - would really like some help but I digress.

 

My question was how he could show up 4th after those 3 superstars and Mark68 is corrrect.

 

The specific playing age year they chose was the key.  There are other much better players but they entered the league older AND the specific Age 25 choice eliminates Bryce Harper - only 23.

 

Kind of a cherry-picked set of criteria but whatever ...  a player gets the contract he deserves so good for him.

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His oWAR thru age 25 is 17.5

 

Pujols 35.3

Arod 45.3

Trout 36.7

 

First of all, Trout has yet to play his 24 and 25 yo seasons.  Harper was eliminated by the fact that he just hasn't accumulated enough WAR. 

 

It's also a list of active players.  

 

Bottom line is that Heyward gets a ton of credit for his defense and offensively he's about 15% above average (OPS+ of 115 career).  I question whether he's won as many games with his glove as the numbers would indicate, but statistical analysis would lead us to believe otherwise and the general public isn't privy to all the defensive metrics and modeling available to every club.  

 

Suffice to say, he's an above average hitter, a tremendous defender and just happened to start his career at a young age.  It's quite possible he could get better offensively as he is known to have tremendous power and he is very selective at the plate.  His power just hasn't shown up to the degree people thought it would.  

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I figure by the time Trouty is through his age 25 season, he'll have a reasonable shot at 55, which would put him in first place, by a lot. Especially when considering g that he's done it clean, while A-Rod wasn't and Pujols may or may not have, yet regardless Pujols was doing it in an era much friendlier to hitters.

Trout and Heyward have had to do it during a time if dominant pitching, which makes it all the more impressive.

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