So I'm pretty sure the Angels will be going after Heyward

[tdawg87]

Posters here that don't want a 26 year old make no sense to me. Especially some of the reasons why. To each their own though I guess.

The "we already have a GG RF" is my favorite. As though Calhoun will somehow become terrible in left.

[Mark68]

Who wouldn't want a 26 old player of his caliber. For me it's more about a 10 year contract commitment.

Cano has been a Mariner 2 years ... look where that's leading already. I won't mention Pujols.

You do realize that Heyward is 5 years younger than Pujols & Cano were when they signed their contracts, right? There is no comparison.

[Mile High Dreams]

Is Heyward stuck on the 5?

[tdawg87]

He's protesting at Mizzou

[Docwaukee]

I'm thinking Upton for sure.  Much as I like Zobrist, I'm thinking they'll save that money for a pitcher.  Here's a VERY brief rundown of how I'd approach it. 

 

1. Sign Upton 7/140.  2. Sign Morneau 1/7.  3. Trade Santiago and Giavotella for Prado or Neil Walker.  4. Trade CJ Wilson and 10 million dollars to the Boston for Junichi Tazawa.  5. Cut Fernando Salas.  6. Ship Jered Weaver elsewhere and save whatever you can, even if it's only a couple million.  7. Sign Wei-Yin Chen 5/75.  8. Sign Seung-hwan Oh 2/10.  9. Cowart or Kubitza takes over 3B.

LINEUP: RF Calhoun 2B Prado CF Trout LF Upton DH Pujols 1B Cron 3B Cowart C Perez SS Simmons

BENCH: Pennington, Soto, Morneau, Cowgill - Kubitza in AAA

ROTATION: Richards, Chen, Heaney, Tropeano, Skaggs - Shoemaker and Smith in AAA

BULLPEN: Street, Smith, Oh, Tazawa, Gott, Ramos and Alvarez - Morin, Rasmus, Bedrosian in AAA. 

 

 

The Angels would end up about 20 million over, which when you consider how much is coming off the books next year, they'd enter next winter about 20 million under. 

I don't think they are going to go that far over.  Plus, there is zero chance of them trading Weaver.  None.  He's gonna be in the rotation like it or not.  

 

Giavotella has no trade value to either the Marlins or Pirates.  He really has almost no trade value at all.  

 

Second tier pitching is the most likely FA to bust.  Plus, with Chen you lose a pick.  So we wouldn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder in your scenario.  

 

Trading Wilson and 10mil for Tazawa means you are paying 13.3mil for 1 yr of a reliever that gave up 10h/9ip last year.  

 

I'd be fine with Upton and Oh.  Morneau is one of those guys I would consider if he were still available late and it was thought that Pujols might take a little longer to recover.  But he lacks versatility to just have as an extra guy.  

 

I think Santiago should get us Prado or Walker straight up.  He's a middle of the rotation guy with 2 years of control left.  Prado or Walker are in their walk years.  

 

If we trade Santiago and somehow get someone to take on a chunk of Wilson for a club controlled reliever then I would be fine with a 1yr deal to Latos or Fister that could result in a comp pick next year.  I'd also try to pick up a stephen drew type for some lefty pop off the bench.  Can play anywhere in the IF

 

I'd be good with a rotation of Richards, Heaney, Fister, Skaggs, Weaver (Trop and Shoe).  

Lineup of Calhoun, Prado, Trout, Pujols, Upton, Cron, Perez, Simmons, Cowart/Gia (depending on if Prado plays 3b or 2b).  Also convinced that if we don't upgrade at 2b that Pennington is going to get a shot to win the starting job.  

Pen of Street, Smith, Gott etal.  I've got a feeling Eppler is going to work some minor league FA magic here 

Bench of Pennington, Drew, Soto, Gentry

[AngelStew43]

I would offer Gordon the Torii Hunter deal right now.  Also, if Mr. Fletcher doesn't think we're in on Heyward, I'd listen.

[Second Base]

I don't think they are going to go that far over.  Plus, there is zero chance of them trading Weaver.  None.  He's gonna be in the rotation like it or not.  

 

Giavotella has no trade value to either the Marlins or Pirates.  He really has almost no trade value at all.  

 

Second tier pitching is the most likely FA to bust.  Plus, with Chen you lose a pick.  So we wouldn't have a 1st or 2nd rounder in your scenario.  

 

Trading Wilson and 10mil for Tazawa means you are paying 13.3mil for 1 yr of a reliever that gave up 10h/9ip last year.  

 

I'd be fine with Upton and Oh.  Morneau is one of those guys I would consider if he were still available late and it was thought that Pujols might take a little longer to recover.  But he lacks versatility to just have as an extra guy.  

 

I think Santiago should get us Prado or Walker straight up.  He's a middle of the rotation guy with 2 years of control left.  Prado or Walker are in their walk years.  

 

If we trade Santiago and somehow get someone to take on a chunk of Wilson for a club controlled reliever then I would be fine with a 1yr deal to Latos or Fister that could result in a comp pick next year.  I'd also try to pick up a stephen drew type for some lefty pop off the bench.  Can play anywhere in the IF

 

I'd be good with a rotation of Richards, Heaney, Fister, Skaggs, Weaver (Trop and Shoe).  

Lineup of Calhoun, Prado, Trout, Pujols, Upton, Cron, Perez, Simmons, Cowart/Gia (depending on if Prado plays 3b or 2b).  Also convinced that if we don't upgrade at 2b that Pennington is going to get a shot to win the starting job.  

Pen of Street, Smith, Gott etal.  I've got a feeling Eppler is going to work some minor league FA magic here 

Bench of Pennington, Drew, Soto, Gentry

1. I don't think we'll go that far over either. But at the same time, it's 20 million past the tax. It's something we'd easily sink back under.

2. Gia has no trade value other than to say that if a team trades away their 2B (Prado) they may want him as insurance.

3. Tazawa was great before last year, and we'd be saving 10 million AND getting a potentially elite RP. Deep bullpens are what can carry a team in October. Great deal.

4. IF Morneau hits, he's our starting 1B. Simple as that. If he hits, we net a QO draft pick next year. If he doesn't, he's a great hitter coming off the bench, and we don't have that.

5. I think Santiago gets that return too. Gia is just in case they need a replacement. If they don't, we can just release him.

6. I'm hoping they bring back Latos regardless. 1 year contract, if he returns to form, we not only get a great performance, we get a draft pick from the QO.

[Docwaukee]

1. I don't think we'll go that far over either. But at the same time, it's 20 million past the tax. It's something we'd easily sink back under.

2. Gia has no trade value other than to say that if a team trades away their 2B (Prado) they may want him as insurance.

3. Tazawa was great before last year, and we'd be saving 10 million AND getting a potentially elite RP. Deep bullpens are what can carry a team in October. Great deal.

4. IF Morneau hits, he's our starting 1B. Simple as that. If he hits, we net a QO draft pick next year. If he doesn't, he's a great hitter coming off the bench, and we don't have that.

5. I think Santiago gets that return too. Gia is just in case they need a replacement. If they don't, we can just release him.

6. I'm hoping they bring back Latos regardless. 1 year contract, if he returns to form, we not only get a great performance, we get a draft pick from the QO.

fair enough on Tazawa.  I just think Wilson has enough value to get us a club controlled reliever if we eat enough salary.  

 

still disagree about Morneau.  Plus, he's going into his 35yo season which means the QO would be for his 36 yo season.  There is no way we potentially bring him back for 15mil in 2017.  no chance.  We didn't even give Freese a QO and he's got more FA value.  

[Second Base]

I agree on CJ, and I do wish Tazawa had more time on his contract. Perhaps they re-sign him after next year.

As for Morneau, he hit .310 last year. A year ago, he won a batting title, hitting .319 with 32 DB 17 HR. Going into next year's weak FA class, if a 1B comes on the market, having hit .300 for three consecutive years, playing good defense and providing decent pop, you don't think he'd get 20 million total?

I think that if Morneau has a rebound year with us, which I believe he reasonably might, he'd get 3/40 in a weak market next year. So yeah, I could see him turning down 1/20 to guarantee double his money.

[Blarg]

I would offer Gordon the Torii Hunter deal right now.  Also, if Mr. Fletcher doesn't think we're in on Heyward, I'd listen.

 

Hunter is actually a fair comp. Up to age 31 Hunters line was .271/.324/.469/.793 while Gordon is currently .269/.348/.435/.783. A little more power numbers from Hunter while a better on base percentage for Gordon. Right now the Angels need a lead off hitter badly, Gordon just may fill that role. A 5/$90 contract would be similar to Hunters.

[DailyHalo]

My point is that whether or not you are talking about Angels or other teams, talking about FAs in general in comparison to someone who will be 26 is ridiculous.  It is not a red flag that he's hitting FA at this age.  Does anything about the Braves look like they wanted to extend him?  No.  They were and are in sell off mode.  The Cardinals have said he is a great teammate who immediately was a team player and quickly meshed with their philosophy.  They would like to resign him and probably tried to extend him, but he likely decided it was best to hit the market this year for financial reasons.  Saying the money isn't worth it when the value per WAR is well above what they would be paying him is just wrong.  FA is usually a total crapshoot, but most players who hit FA this early is because they are such solid players and had such early success and most were even more successful once they hit their prime.  

I can't remember who said it but I'm just not trying to get stuck with the next Crawford or Ellsbury 2.0 debacle.

[DailyHalo]

Who ever said they wouldn't take Harper or Cutch over Heyward?  Nobody.  You went from arguing Heywards defense to bringing up a bunch of guys who are unavailable and not even a part of this discussion.  You said in one post most are cheaper.  You do realize if Harper hit the FA market right now he's be getting 35 million AAV?  Even with all his red flags like being injured half his career.  Thats a mute point though because most of the players you mentioned aren't even options.  Nobody said Heyward was the best player in the league.  

 

And once again, in all likelihood he will far exceed his contract in the value he provides.  Another poster brought up that 5-7 million should buy you 1 WAR.  He is a minimum of 5 WAR player which is worth 25-35 million a year.  The likelihood is that he will get better because the vast majority of player get better during their prime.You keep saying "play the odds" and "in all liklihood", but your statements are based on your own persoanl perceptions rather than fact.  Fact is most players get better the older they get.  Fact is almost every player whos hit FA this young has been great and has gotten better.  Cabrera got traded to a team that had the money to extend him and he happened to accept.  He was already an insane hitter, but he got even better in his prime, like most players do.  Based on comments I've heard from the Cardinals I can almost guarantee you they tried to extend him, but he declined.  Meaning your perception that he is only hitting FA because there is something wrong with him that the Cardinals know about is just plain false.  He is a special case.  The Braves are in fire sale mode and happened to have a player like Heyward that they traded away.  Cardinals have had nothing but great things to say about him including that they would like to sign him.  Yet here he is on the FA market because he knows he'll get the best money.  

 

I agree they shouldn't sign him if it means they are going to go crazy cheap on all the other positions they need to full, but the reality is he's still getting a similar AAV as Cespedes and Upton which means that his longer contract is irrelevant in terms of who else they will sign for 3B and 2B.  By the time his longer length comes into play whoever else they sign this year won't even be on the team and the big contracts they have right now will be off the book.  This question isn't just for you because other have said what you said, but how does them signing Heyward effect who else they sign unless you are talking about signing a guy like Parra instead?  It would be incredibly weak to go for a guy like Parra with the options available and considering Trout is on the team and the FA market is going to suck for years after this year.

 

Ideally they are willing to go for Upton/Cespedes/Heyward and still go for Zobrist/Freese.  Yeah, you are right, it is not my money.  But you put a team like that together and you will win games and you will sell a lot of tickets.  You will also be fielding a team that will likely be an annual playoff contender, which will boost profits even more. Trout could end up being the best player the Angels ever have had or will ever had.  You don't let that type of opportunity pass you by.  You don't hold back.

No one said anything about them being available. We were talking about who were the better defensive players. The Bryce Harper thing is mute though because thats a total hypothetical and I don't know what you said exactly but you were the one who mentioned him being the best RF no question about it. It's a 29 too 1 thing. 29 teams either dodge a bullet or kick themselves or it's the 1 team also either jumps up for joy or.... Albert proved to all of us that even a cornerstone player can falter, so I don't know if we should risk it again on someone like Heyward. It's not the annual that bugs me, its the years. I was unjustly harsh on Heyward in the beginning but I still don't think its smart too sign him. Upton and Fowler are my go too moves. If anyone has more in the tank, it's them.  

Edited November 25, 2015 by DailyHalo

[DailyHalo]

No they're most likely who they are, just staying on the field should be the main priority though. What I should have asked, is do we need a 1/2 hole hitter or 4/5 hitter more?

Edited November 25, 2015 by DailyHalo

[Docwaukee]

Other than foreign signings that come with their own risk, there hasn't been a free agent about to start his 26yo season since Arod was starting his 25yo season in 2001.  So it's quite the rarity.  Players who hit free agency at a very you age do so because they start their mlb career as a teenager or in the first year of their 3rd decade.  It's because they are good.  

 

In the last 20 years of all the players in baseball, Jason Heyward has the 7th highest WAR of any player through their age 25 season.   He's actually 42nd all time.  38th since the turn of the century and 13th in the last 50 years.  

 

His total is 27.8 fWAR.  

 

One of the most similar player to Heyward through the age of 25 is Barry Bonds.   Think about that for a second.  What if instead of being Carl Crawford (who is actually not a very good comp for heyward from a numbers standpoint), he's actually closer to being the Bonds that never took steroids.  

 

Granted, he's very unlikely to be, but he's just as unlikely to be Crawford.  

Btw, Crawford didn't actually hit free agency until before his 29yo season.  So even if you are getting Crawford, you are getting the three seasons where he was a 5 WAR player from age 26-28.  Heyward averages about 30-35 more walks per season over crawford.  

 

Heyward at 10/200 with an opt out could be a tremendous deal for the halos.  Get his best 5 years and then let him hit the market again for his age 31yo season and beyond.  

 

I think I just convinced myself that we really need to get this guy.  

[marcosantinia12]

 

One of the most similar player to Heyward through the age of 25 is Barry Bonds.   Think about that for a second.  What if instead of being Carl Crawford (who is actually not a very good comp for heyward from a numbers standpoint), he's actually closer to being the Bonds that never took steroids.  

 

Great comparison Doc. Didn't realize this until I looked up the numbers. Aside from their age 25 season itself, they look pretty similar with Bonds obviously having more power and more speed. I don't see Heyward turning into a power hitter in the future... but what if he begin to mature into a more complete hitter? I think that if he begins to approach the plate relative to his size and stop trying to play like a small guy (he almost looks like a slap hitter when batting) we will see a tremendous improvement in his power and thus overall offensive numbers.

 

[wopphil]

The Angels need impact talent, not guys who provide only minor upgrades. They need a rotation anchor, a second baseman, an outfielder, a bullpen arm, and possibly a third baseman.

My plan would cost a fortune, but the team would be good:

1. Sign Price or Greinke ($24-27 mil AV)

2. Sign Cespedes, Gordon, Hayward or Upton ($18-25 mil AV)

3. Sign Zobrist, Kendrick or Murphy ($12-17 mil AV)

4. Sign pen arm ($4-5 mil AV)

5. Trade Santiago for Prado (additional $3 mil in AV)

Total cost would be $60-75 mil in annual value. We'd go over the cap the next two years, but could possibly get back under after that. We'd have a sick team.

[totdprods]

My worry about going that far over cap is that it will prevent dollars from going to rebuilding the farm, and while that's a good team, it locks a lot of money and years into older players, and if being that far over cap continues to handicap spending on the farm, we will be in the exact same position a year or two from now when one of those players winds up regressing and the team runs them out a season longer than they should.

I think the team needs to be built a little more balanced than simply plugging as many FA 30+ vets into positions, at least those that will command a lot of years or money.

If they go heavy in FA, I think it needs to be for the youngest players possible - Heyward, Leake - and vets that won't command big money or 2+ year deals - Morneau, Jaso, Aoki, Pearce.

The risk of Zobrist, O'Day, Davis, Kendrick aging quickly with that much money tied up isn't worth it.

Deal whatever excess depth pieces we have afterwards and try and land maybe a reclamation prospect or two.

[HALOS23]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned ( & I apologize if someone has) the similarities of Heyward and Garret Anderson.

Take a look at Garrett's #'s before he entered his prime and how he developed HR power during this time. Between the ages of 26-32, his hr's really escalated.

 http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXaXXanderga01-bat.shtml&t=all_standard_batting

I can see Heyward following the same path, especially as he matures as a hitter.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Ive been on the upton train, but someone the other day (i think angelsfan86) made a great post about the size of our outfield and what that means for a lockdown outfield. Then added that heywars was number 30 in best offensive players last year.

I still lean towards upton, i like his bat better. But upton probably does bring more overall to the team.

Reality though, unfortunately, is that out of upton/heyward, we probably at best land cespedes. With an equal shot of getting parra and a big name SP

[totdprods]

We need so much help offensively I'd be happy with any of the big-name OFers at this point.

[beatlesrule]

Ten ocho, you mean Heyward brings more to the team.

Edited November 25, 2015 by beatlesrule

[mrwicked]

The Angels need impact talent, not guys who provide only minor upgrades. They need a rotation anchor, a second baseman, an outfielder, a bullpen arm, and possibly a third baseman.

My plan would cost a fortune, but the team would be good:

1. Sign Price or Greinke ($24-27 mil AV)

2. Sign Cespedes, Gordon, Hayward or Upton ($18-25 mil AV)

3. Sign Zobrist, Kendrick or Murphy ($12-17 mil AV)

4. Sign pen arm ($4-5 mil AV)

5. Trade Santiago for Prado (additional $3 mil in AV)

Total cost would be $60-75 mil in annual value. We'd go over the cap the next two years, but could possibly get back under after that. We'd have a sick team.

 

i like this.

big dick baseball baby!

[ten ocho recon scout]

Ten ocho, you mean Heyward brings more to the team.

yeah, typo, meant to say heyward

[Angel Oracle]

The GA comp is intriguing, although he clubbed 16 HRs in the equivalent of 2/3 of a season in his rookie year.

He did fall back power wise from 1996-1999, before averaging 30+ HRs from 2000-2003 with a ton of doubles (including team record 56 in 2002).

[ten ocho recon scout]

Yep. Ga was a doubles machine. I remember a rumor that arte wanted to trade for nomar back in 03 (dont know if it was real or not). But the thought of 2 guys hitting back to back that could give you 40 doubles would have been fun