A different opinion on the Trout "decline"

[NrM]

**disclaimer** I am a blind trout lover

 

 

This is probably a condition of the umpires being scrutinized and adjusting to the k-zone.

 

Trout had a 167 OPS+ this year. He had a 168 OPS+ in his rookie season and 179 OPS+ last year.

So Trout declined, but so did the offensive production of the entire MLB.

Offensive production declined so much throughout baseball, that trout ended up having the same wRC as his rookie season(167)

 

The 2 areas where he truly did decline, defense and base stealing, aren't worrisome areas.

Defensive metrics have always been flawed and should be taken with a grain of salt.

His low base stealing numbers had little to do with his ability, but other factors, like Pujols hitting behind him, and the Angels being more station to station.

These two areas can easily be fixed next season.

Edited October 9, 2014 by Poozy

[Angels]

He wasn't the same hitter during the second half. Pitchers started pitching to him differently and kept attacking him more and more with high fastballs.

It's also not as much about how much he has declined as it is about the way he has declined. He's a different hitter.

[Angels]

Different hitter, different player. But still awesome.

[hats4bats]

Kinda seemed off to me after he had his hand stepped on. I blame feet

[NrM]

Please don't ignore everything I wrote while only responding to the title.

Edited October 9, 2014 by Poozy

[Oz27]

I don't agree about the basestealing bit, that's the one I just found bizarre. From early in the season he seldom looked a threat to steal and it seemed when he did it went badly (things like the KC ALDS steal attempt jump to mind). That's so far off what he was early in his career that I just don't understand it. At the end of the day it's not the end of the world if he just steals 10 to 15 bases a year from now on, but it seems like a waste of ability.

[tdawg87]

I don't know, his defense was pretty bad this year. When you have a noodle arm and play CF you need to have a solid glove.

 

I'll only be worried about his bat if he starts off 2015 the same way he ended 2014. He has all the time in the world right now to make the necessary adjustments.

[DoubleOffTheWall]

He looks slow nowadays. He went the pure slugger route.

 

He indeed has a lot of things to think about this offseason, but I have no doubt he will destroy the league next year. 

[Angelsjunky]

Poozy, I think you're missing the fact that OPS+ and wRC+ are contextual to the league. In other words, 100 is always average, no matter what year and what the stats are. So if offense was down in 2014, which it was, those stats will reflect that. So yeah, in terms of pure hitting, 2012 and 2014 were essentially the same in value. Of course the difference in baserunning and defense were significant, which is why Trout in 2012 was better than in 2014.

 

Or look at it this way - AL OPS for the three years in question:

 

2012: .731

2013: .725

2014: .706

 

An AL OPS+ of 100 in 2012 is equivalent to a .731 OPS, while in 2014 it is equivalent to .706. In other words, OPS+ is always relative to whatever the league average is.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[NrM]

Poozy, I think you're missing the fact that OPS+ and wRC+ are contextual to the league. In other words, 100 is always average, no matter what year and what the stats are. So if offense was down in 2014, which it was, those stats will reflect that. So yeah, in terms of pure hitting, 2012 and 2014 were essentially the same in value. Of course the difference in baserunning and defense were significant, which is why Trout in 2012 was better than in 2014.

 

Or look at it this way - AL OPS for the three years in question:

 

2012: .731

2013: .725

2014: .706

 

An AL OPS+ of 100 in 2012 is equivalent to a .731 OPS, while in 2014 it is equivalent to .706. In other words, OPS+ is always relative to whatever the league average is.

I'm trying to refute the people who claim trout declined offensively.

This is the main thing people seem to focus on.

You have to factor in how someone plays relative to his peers.

 

He does deserve criticism in his decline defensively and his lack of steals, but it's something I have confidence in him improving on next year.

 

I don't think he deserves the criticism he's been getting on the offensive side though.

Trout isn't and probably will never be immune to the league wide offensive decline and I see nothing wrong with that.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Poozy

[Angels]

He did decline offensively from 2013.

Did you see his second half numbers, though? He was getting more and more high fastballs and he didn't know what to do with them.

[stormngt]

Sometimes people.cant observe the game. They just live by the numbers. I don't care what stats are brought up it was clear Trout wasn't the same hitter. He wanted to be a slugger. I prefer the high average get on base Trout.

[floplag]

3 mvp years, our fans are calling it a decline.. and we wonder why our players this we are idiots

[NrM]

Sometimes people.cant observe the game. They just live by the numbers. I don't care what stats are brought up it was clear Trout wasn't the same hitter. He wanted to be a slugger. I prefer the high average get on base Trout.

 

He was arguably the best hitter in baseball. What more do you want?

[Angels]

That's because the first half Trout was incredible. And then pitchers started to adjust to him. Pitchers started throwing him WAY more high fastballs and he wasn't the same.

[Angelsjunky]

The bottom line:

 

1. Mike Trout was great in 2014

2. Mike Trout was better in 2013

 

Does anyone actually disagree with this? Poozy? Floplag?

 

Poozy, Trout DID decline from 2013 to 2014. Not hugely, but noticeably (thus his declined OPS+ and wRC+).

[NrM]

The bottom line:

 

1. Mike Trout was great in 2014

2. Mike Trout was better in 2013

 

Does anyone actually disagree with this? Poozy? Floplag?

 

Poozy, Trout DID decline from 2013 to 2014. Not hugely, but noticeably (thus his declined OPS+ and wRC+).

I'll agree, but I don't think it had much significance. His 2013/2014 OPS+ and wRC+ was separated by what? 8 points?

He was on par with his rookie season, offensively.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Poozy

[Angels]

He's going to need to figure that out during the offseason. And another thing that may help him (in the K department) is for him not to be taking strike 1 and 3 so often.

But he better figure out that high fastball because that's what he will get in the future. And if he doesn't we may see an even more unrecognizable Trout next year.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Angels

[bloodbrother]

The decline in BB% has more to do with Pujols not being injured IMO. Wasn't his BB% around 10-11% in 2013 and then spiked to around 20% or so in the 2nd half once Pujols was shut down for the year?  Teams just simply avoided pitching to him once Pujols went down and he saw more IBB's as a result as well

 

The main thing is for him to cut his K-rate. He never displayed this type of swing and miss throughout his minor league career or his first 2 years in the bigs. With his eye, his approach, his compact swing, etc...there's no reason he should be striking out at that rate. I expect him to make the proper adjustments

Edited October 10, 2014 by bloodbrother

[stormngt]

He was arguably the best hitter in baseball. What more do you want?

I think I made it clear.  I want the Trout of 2013 and 2012.  Sorry but I do not see him worth the 33 dollar tag batting the way he did this year.  He was just a great slugger this year.  He wasn't the same guy.  Sorry if you think that is such a terrible knock.

[Adios]

i definitely prefer the Trout from 2012 . I hope that he will bring back the speed and play the game the way he did back then.  It was so much more exciting.  He made more contact and used all of his skills better.  I will take the 2012 Trout over the 2014 Trout every day of the year.  

[QuinlansMinion]

We should be more worried about Pujols making adjustments. Trouts problems can be solved by being more aggressive on first pitch fastballs and learning to hit the high strike. Pitchers will always be more comfortable trying to keep the ball down, so Trout should be fine even if he only moderately improves.

Pujols problems are all physical and result from diminshed bat speed and the fact that he is a snail on the basepaths.

[Docwaukee]

It's reasonable to conclude that his 2014 season is within an appropriate deviation of a mean for his career.  One that is just on the low end.  I think 2015 will tell us a lot about what to expect from him going forward.  Is this a new baseline because of that high pitch for a strike that he didn't show any ability to adjust to, or is it the first time that he has actually been made to adjust significantly and the process to do so is a bit more difficult than just watching some film.  

[Butcher'd]

I'll give him another season before I worry. The guy was superhuman his first two years...and still very good this year.

[Angel Oracle]

He was arguably the best hitter in baseball. What more do you want?

There is no doubt of this for pre-ASB.

Post-ASB? More like what Pujols was for the whole season.

Solid, not great

This (post-ASB) was the first extended time in his MLB career (after the 2011 debut period) where he seemed more towards just being solid.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Angel Oracle