To hedge or not to hedge

[Adam]

remember that crash course you gave derek and i?

 

that was dope. you should do that and have your own show on saturday mornings on am830.

 

That was fun. Marriage and Family have taken over my life...in a good way. 

 

I'd like to hit up Santa Anita before Spring 

[Adam]

I was on a game show about 11 years ago, some entertainment trivia show on the GSN, I forget the name.  The host was Todd Newton.  I won a little more than 17 grand.  It was an awesome day.

 

Anyways, there were a bunch of contestants, and if you got through to the second round, you could win some big money.  Answer one or two questions, you could win $100 or $250, and you could stop there.  Answer five or six and you could win low 5 figures.

 

I was amazed how many contestants stopped at $250 or $500, when 10 grand was four or five questions away.  Maybe many were homeless and needed the $250 to live.  But most, I suspect, didn't understand the concept of EV - they were passing on winning 5x or 10x or 20x by answering a few more dumb questions.

 

 

I think this Auburn guy understood the value, (or lack thereof, considering the punishing nature of a moneyline bet) of his bet, and made the correct decision.

 

I think you're right. There was no easy hedge. Had FSU been dogs, it would've been stupid.

 

That's awesome re: your game show experience. Lets see it!

[yk9001]

I went back to my filing cabinet - I kept the 1099 as a keepsake - it was 14 years ago!

 

I also googled Hollywood Showdown - you had to answer just five questions to get (as it turned out, for me, $17,540)... or you could answer one question for $500 and stop, or two for $1000, and stop.  It was a no-brainer for me.

 

My final, fifth question:  What was Lucy Ricardo's maiden name on I Love Lucy?

 

It was a slam dunk for a rerun junkie like I was as a kid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Showdown

 

Box Office

The object of the Box Office round was to answer five questions correctly. Before each question, the contestant was presented with two category choices. The first four correct answers were worth $500 each, and the fifth won the Box Office.

At any time, a contestant could quit and take what they had won up to that point. However, an incorrect answer lost whatever winnings they had earned. If a contestant did not win the Box Office either by missing a question or choosing to stop, he or she played another game, with the Box Office continuing to grow from its previous value. When a contestant won the Box Office, he/she retired from the show, and a new contestant took his/her place among the remaining contestants. The Box Office reset to $10,000 every time it was won.

 

 

[Brandon]

That was fun. Marriage and Family have taken over my life...in a good way. 

 

I'd like to hit up Santa Anita before Spring 

 

I actually haven't been to the track since around that time....ironically, I think the last time I was at the track I ran into Derek.

[Brandon]

That's pretty dope, YK. I don't think I've ever been remotely close to free or big money like that.

[yk9001]

That's pretty dope, YK. I don't think I've ever been remotely close to free or big money like that.

 

 

Thanks, what I remember most was that it was a super fun day.  A game show treats its contestants like royalty for a day.  Rarely (never) do us regular schlubs get treated so well - Can we get you anything?  Here's a catered lunch...

 

Here's the crazy thing - within two months, I was also on Fox Sports Geniuses - came in second and won one of those big boxy, 200 pound, 32 inch that we kept for a long time - til we got an HD tv years and years later.   Matt Vasgergian was the host, and Lisa Guerrero was the attractive side piece.  If you pause the tv at one point, you see me staring at her boobs.

 

Again, a super fun day.  More than the prizes or money, I just had a blast.

[yk9001]

One of the hosts of the pregame.com podcast (a podcast any "serious recreational" bettor should be listening to) brought up a good point, which I didn't give enough thought to prior.

 

Dude only spent 100 bucks on the ticket.  You should be getting SOMETHING out of the bet if you've made it that far.