Why were the 2015-23 Astros so good? (And what the Angels could learn from them)

[Angelsjunky]

With all this talk about how the Angels are going to dig themselves out of this hole, I thought I'd examine at least one successful franchise to try to glean what their methodology was. 

I looked at the Astros from 2015-23, a period in which they reached the playoffs in all but one year (2016), the World Series four times, including two championships. While other franchises have had similar periods of dominance, few did so after following as horrible a period as the Astros' 2011-14, in which they averaged 104 losses a year.

In other words, the Astros went from being the major league's worst team from 2011-14 to the best from 2015-23 (though it should be mentioned that they didn't get really good until 2017).

How'd they do it? Well, I was curious. I looked at every player who produced at least 3 WAR for the Astros during the 2015-23 period, and came up with a list of 35 players, pitchers and hitters, totaling 386.1 WAR. Given that the team totaled 434.1 WAR for those nine years, these 35 players produced 88.9% of the team's WAR value.

I then looked at where the Astros got those 35 players, in five categories:

Amateur Draft: 9 players (151.3 WAR)

International/amateur free agent: 7 players (88.9 WAR)

Trades: 13 players (106.7 WAR)

MLB free agents: 4 players (24.7 WAR)

Waivers: 2 players (14.5 WAR)

What should immediately stand out is how little of the team's total WAR came from major league free agency. The vast majority came from the Amateur Draft, trades, and international signings (in that order, though the WAR per player on international signings is significantly higher than players brought via trades).

What about the better players? The top Astro during that period is, unsurprisingly, Jose Altuve with 46.2 WAR, who was an international signing in 2007. The next three are Alex Bregman (35.5), Carlos Correa (27.4), and George Springer (23.7), all of whom were all from the Draft, and all first round picks. Actually, fully six of the top 10 are draftees, five of whom were first rounders.

To get to the top free agent, you have to go all the way down to #15, Michael Brantley (8.3 WAR). The fourteen players above him include three international signings, six draftees, four trades, and one waiver pick.

TLDR and Summary: The Astros' success from 2015-23 is mostly due to a combination of the draft, international signings, and trades. Very little of their success came from free agency - with only four free agents accounting for more than 3 WAR.

Every team is constructed differently, but I'm guessing that the majority of perennially good teams are similarly weighted towards homegrown talent (draft, international signings) and trades, and less so free agency. Some teams almost certainly have a stronger percentage of free agents, but as a general rule, the Astros are a good template of a successful approach. The key being that the majority of their good players are homegrown; trades and free agency are used to fill gaps, but not to center your team on.

This is nothing new - everyone (except, perhaps, Arte Moreno) understands that the foundation of most--if not all--perennially good teams is a strong farm system, including scouting and development. But the numbers for the Astros illustrate this rather starkly. Let's hope that someone in the Angels org has some sense of this.

 

Postscript

As a postscript, the question arises: when were these players signed relative to the Astros period of success? Altuve was the earliest in 2007--he spent almost five years in the minors, and then played for the Astros through their bad era. A couple other draftees came in 2008-09, but the majority were acquired in 2011 or later. Meaning, most of the value of the 2015-23 team came to the Astros within four years of that time span.

If we look at the five first rounders drafted from 2011-15--Springer in 2011, Correa and McCullers in 2012, Bregman and Tucker in 2015 (with two dud picks in 2013-14 in Mark Appel and Brady Aiken)--all five are in the top eight WAR players on the list.

It is hard to say how close the Angels' recent top draft picks are to the Astros group. Quite a few of the current team are first-round draft picks, including those who have at least experienced a "cup": Taylor Ward (2015), Matt Thaiss (2016), Jo Adell (2017), Jordyn Adams (2018), Reid Detmers (2020), Sam Bachman (2021), Zach Neto (2022), Nolan Schanuel (2023). It remains to be seen how good this group becomes, but all look to be at least major leaguers in some capacity, and some quality regulars or better.

This is in stark contrast to the previous half a decade or so of first-rounders; after Trout in 2009, only one of the next seven first-rounders produced more than 3 WAR in the big leagues (CJ Cron); three never made it (Taylor Lindsey, Chevy Clarke, Ryan Bolden), one produced negative WAR (Caleb Cowart), two less than 3 (Sean Newcomb, Cam Bedrosian). So the good news is that the Angels have drafted better under Billy Eppler and Perry Minasian, at least in the first round, than they did under Jerry Dipoto. 

What the Angels truly lack compared to the Astros are successful international signees, most especially Jose Altuve and Framber Valdez. Who knows, maybe Nelson Rada can be their big success story.

The Astros also had a heist trade in acquiring Yordan Alvarez, and two big name starters in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The Angels haven't really had much success on the trade market.

 

[Jeremiah]

This is a good write up. The Angels will really need to step their scouting and development game to get where the Astros did. It’s becoming more difficult to simply tank for better picks now than it was when HOU started building this group of players.

[Blarg]

Currently the three top offensive producers for the Angels (not on IL) are Ward, O'Hoppe and Adell. O'Hoppe is our best player when you include defense. 

[Angelsjunky]

I did some quick research on the Braves, looking at their 2018-24 period - not as in-depth, but looked at the top 23 players by WAR. Of those, the top two (Acuna, Albies) were international signings, the next two (Riley, Freeman) were drafted, and the next two (Fried, Swanson) came in via trades. Then you have a mix, with Strider and Harris drafted, and a handful of free agents - but no big contracts.

So the commonality between the Braves of 18-24 and the Astros of 15-23 are that the best players are homegrown, and both of their very best come from international signing; and also successful trades and no free agent mega-deals.

If we look at the Angels during their bad period (2016-24), only Trout and Ohtani are homegrown and very good, and Ohtani isn't really homegrown as he didn't spend any time in the minor league system. Simmons is the third best position player, and he was traded for. After those three, no other player has produced 10+ WAR for the Angels over the last nine seasons. Most of the homegrown guys have been varying shades of mediocrity (so far), and the free agents and trades disappointing.

Anaheim, we have a scouting problem.

Edited May 13 by Angelsjunky

[Duren, Duren]

Good analysis with empirical evidence for this one team.  Some luck was involved, but the takeaway was that Houston had a long term plan, stuck with it, didn't panic during bad times. 

Most importantly was their scouting and development. They went out, were thorough, made good choices and proceeded through the development process. 

I found it interesting about international signings. That's exactly what the Expos did decades ago. Montreal was a more culturally and linguistically diverse city than most U.S. cities at the time and that was a selling point to some of the families of the kids they scouted.

Scouting internationally also has a relationship factor. Scouts can build up solidarity with a teenager and their families that creates a sense of trust. 

There is no salary cap for most of the infrastructure positions in baseball. It won't happen with Arte, but the Angels need the best and brightest scouts, coaches, analysts, accountants, publicists, etc.

Basically they need to attract top talent everywhere off field to begin to create the best on field team. If they have to over pay, so be it. Poach or make big offers to proven guys. Use insider information to determine which younger guys have the most success. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Duren, Duren said:

Good analysis with empirical evidence for this one team.  Some luck was involved, but the takeaway was that Houston had a long term plan, stuck with it, didn't panic during bad times. 

Most importantly was their scouting and development. They went out, were thorough, made good choices and proceeded through the development process. 

I found it interesting about international signings. That's exactly what the Expos did decades ago. Montreal was a more culturally and linguistically diverse city than most U.S. cities at the time and that was a selling point to some of the families of the kids they scouted.

Scouting internationally also has a relationship factor. Scouts can build up solidarity with a teenager and their families that creates a sense of trust. 

There is no salary cap for most of the infrastructure positions in baseball. It won't happen with Arte, but the Angels need the best and brightest scouts, coaches, analysts, accountants, publicists, etc.

Basically they need to attract top talent everywhere off field to begin to create the best on field team. If they have to over pay, so be it. Poach or make big offers to proven guys. Use insider information to determine which younger guys have the most success. 

Good stuff. 

I think to really understand the Astros, especially how their arc is relevant to the Angels, we have to go back before even that terrible period. They were a good team from 1997-2005, with six playoff berths out of nine seasons. Those were the days of the "Killer Bs" - Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, and Derek Bell (sorta). Bagwell retired after 2005, Biggio after 2007, Berkman traded in 2010 - which was also staff ace Roy Oswalt's last year (Bell left after '99 but was a bit overhyped to make the "Bs" a threesome, before Berkman came along).

Meaning, the core team got old and retired, and the Astros followed a natural pattern of decline. As far as I can tell, they didn't grasp at straws and try to keep things going. They accepted the natural cycle of things--of rise, peak, and decline before rising again--which pretty much no team is immune to. Some have shorter cycles, some longer. The Yankees of the last 25 years have kind of broken the mold of that, mainly through spending far more than everyone else. From 1995 to 2022 they have reached the postseason in all but four seasons, but even most of those are clustered together (three from 2013-16). They didn't make it last year, but seem playoff bound again this year.

The Angels from 2002-09 were sort of similar to the Astros from 97-05, but at least they won a WS. But even when much of the core team departed after 09, Arte wouldn't accept a down-cycle, maybe partially because he missed out on that lone World Series, but also because he didn't seem to understand how baseball works. By 2009, the Angels farm had become fallow. After peaking in 2005 (MLB #1 org rank), most of the most exciting prospects turned out to be not all that exciting (e.g. Kotchman, McPherson, Mathis), though some had become pretty good players (e.g. Aybar, Kendrick, Napoli). But everything that happened from 2010 on speaks of a team owner who was unwilling to face reality: the Golden Age of 2002-09 was over, and there was no easy way to get back to a new Golden Age - you had to go through the cycle, the "Fall" of mythology.

As a thought experiment, let's line up the Astros' 2006 to the Angels 2010. The Astros skidded along in mediocrity for a few years in the wake of their good era, as the last remnants of those teams departed and weren't replaced. and then accepted the inevitably and were really bad from 2011-14, before rising from the ashes in 2015. If the Angels had followed a similar pattern, 2010-14 would have been mediocre, 2015-18 really bad, and 2019 the beginning of a new era. Or something like that. The Astros in the 2010s didn't have Mike Trout, so presumably the Angels could have shortened the down-cycle to maybe five or six years, and been good again by the mid-2010s -- and within another half decade of Trout's prime.

But it didn't happen, because Arte Moreno is megalomaniac and doesn't understand baseball, and none of his GMs could make up the difference (I could wax philosophical here and say that Arte's primary mistake is that he doesn't understand that baseball is more naturalistic - that is, it follows the cycles of nature - whereas he, as a businessman, treats it as a capitalist venture, and thus more mechanistic).

So here we are, still circling the drain - quite possibly facing the worst team record since the 90s, if not before (they were 70-92 in 1999, the worst of the 90s, and are currently on pace for 59-103; their franchise worst record of 65-95 in 1980).

As CG Jung said, the only way out is through. What "through" means, in my opinion, is not worrying about contending for the foreseeable future, at least not in the front office (Ron Washington can sing that song in the clubhouse)--but re-diverting resources to farm development. Nothing new here. I'm pretty sure Perry knows this, but the question is whether he can convince Arte - or if Arte will kick him to the curb after another terrible year, and look for the next second rate GM candidate who will always say "yes."

I suppose I still hold out hope that Perry already convinced Arte of that, thus the lack of major free agent signings in the offseason. I think a lot hinged on Shohei - if he had returned to the Angels, Arte would have gone all in and had a Metsian payroll. Maybe Shohei's departure and Trout and Rendon's injuries sealed the deal, and Arte will resign himself to rebuilding. If so, and if the Angels do it well, they're already part of the way there. They've got some solid young players to build around, even if none of them become more quality regulars and maybe a borderline star or two. In a best-case scenario, the Angels are able to bring in some prospects at the deadline this year, the young players continue to progress, some of the prospects currently in the minors progress well, they have a good draft and sign some good international talent. I know, that's a lot of things. They could even be interesting to watch as soon as next year, though probably not a serious contender until 2027-28 at the very earliest. Maybe soon enough to Trout into the postseason, even if he needs a wheelchair.

 

Edited May 13 by Angelsjunky

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anaheim, we have an ownership problem 

 

[redoctober2002]

Great write up. It goes to show that developing a successful organization goes beyond just having a big payroll and splurging in free agency. Just as a note, Mike Elias served as the Astros scouting director from 2012-2016 and was responsible for player development and minor league operation from 2016 to 2018 before leaving for the Orioles. Lo and behold the O's are now one of the top teams in the East with probably the best farm system in baseball right now.

[T.G.]

The Astros also cheated.

[Jason]

The Angels do not do well at scouting and drafting players so the Asstros model will not work. 

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, T.G. said:

The Astros also cheated.

Maybe the Angels should have tried that.

[Slegnaac]

23 hours ago, redoctober2002 said:

Mike Elias served as the Astros scouting director from 2012-2016 and was responsible for player development and minor league operation from 2016 to 2018 before leaving for the Orioles. Lo and behold the O's are now one of the top teams in the East with probably the best farm system in baseball right now.

Perhaps the Angels should offer him the PBO gig.

[Hubs]

The fact that you wrote this and didn't mention that they all should've been banned from Baseball is ridiculous. 

Baseball covered up a lot of it, and I will die on this hill. They were using buzzers or other electronic signaling methods after they got caught with the trash cans. They cheated and they all should've been banned. Altuve "Don't rip off my shirt" was way guiltier than is commonly believed. 

Just like they are pushing Ippei to take the fall for what was much more likely Ohtani gambling -- or helping gamble -- no way they extended credit to an interpreter in the millions of dollars.

As far as the Cheating Astros, There may have been other teams doing it, but they didn't ever really investigate it after they caught the Astros. No one was really punished a the team should've been. That 2017 title should be vacated. 

 

[angelsfan100]

[samwum]

Great writeup. They tanked like hell and had an awesome front office. They developed young players well with proprietary and esoteric advantages -- IE their pitching coach for much of the time Brent Strom is kind of known as a spin rate genius. Also the cheating thing is in there too lol -- if they were bold enough to do the trash cans thing, I bet they were on top of the sticky stuff with pitchers too.

Lastly I think I needs to be emphasized that the Astros did more than draft and sign international prospects well -- they were fucking nails with the Alvarez, Verlander, and Cole deals along with more. They not only were great with prospects, but they swindled other teams too. You have to do both to actually get a dynasty type of thing going. This is why Perry in my mind is a lost cause -- even if you like the young guys he's drafted, he's been a total dipshit with major league player evaluation which is reflected in the big league club somehow getting worse every year he's been here. 

Fortunately for us, now their front office is in Baltimore and they have made some dumbass signings with Abreu and Hader. Reign of terror might finally be subsiding.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, samwum said:

Great writeup. They tanked like hell and had an awesome front office. They developed young players well with proprietary and esoteric advantages -- IE their pitching coach for much of the time Brent Strom is kind of known as a spin rate genius. Also the cheating thing is in there too lol -- if they were bold enough to do the trash cans thing, I bet they were on top of the sticky stuff with pitchers too.

Lastly I think I needs to be emphasized that the Astros did more than draft and sign international prospects well -- they were fucking nails with the Alvarez, Verlander, and Cole deals along with more. They not only were great with prospects, but they swindled other teams too. You have to do both to actually get a dynasty type of thing going. This is why Perry in my mind is a lost cause -- even if you like the young guys he's drafted, he's been a total dipshit with major league player evaluation which is reflected in the big league club somehow getting worse every year he's been here. 

Fortunately for us, now their front office is in Baltimore and they have made some dumbass signings with Abreu and Hader. Reign of terror might finally be subsiding.

I would add that even if we like who Perry drafted, they were all rushed, which may stunt their ceiling a bit. I tend to think that there are certain refinements that are better done in the minors than the majors; once you get to the majors, it is harder to fully develop, because the pace of things is so much greater. 

The Angels rushing prospects is just another variant of their complete lack of patience and prudence.

[samwum]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I would add that even if we like who Perry drafted, they were all rushed, which may stunt their ceiling a bit. I tend to think that there are certain refinements that are better done in the minors than the majors; once you get to the majors, it is harder to fully develop, because the pace of things is so much greater. 

The Angels rushing prospects is just another variant of their complete lack of patience and prudence.

I completely agree and appreciate the way you stated this. Schanuel should be screwing around in AA, and trying to set the all-time walk record while falling asleep to Freddie Freeman clips in order to figure out by osmosis how to hit homers. 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

One significant factor that sets us apart from top teams is the lack of effective analysis, utilization of technologies, and understanding of the data provided by these technologies. For instance, while watching the Orioles and Blue Jays game, the broadcast team invited a member of the Orioles' technology staff to discuss their methods. It was an interesting discussion as he explained how they employ cameras to assess bat speed, swing path, and even analyze their leads off base.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

One significant factor that sets us apart from top teams is the lack of effective analysis, utilization of technologies, and understanding of the data provided by these technologies. For instance, while watching the Orioles and Blue Jays game, the broadcast team invited a member of the Orioles' technology staff to discuss their methods. It was an interesting discussion as he explained how they employ cameras to assess bat speed, swing path, and even analyze their leads off base.

(meant facetiously...that seems to be the org's viewpoint on analysis, tech, and data)

[Jeremiah]

21 hours ago, Hubs said:

The fact that you wrote this and didn't mention that they all should've been banned from Baseball is ridiculous. 

Baseball covered up a lot of it, and I will die on this hill. They were using buzzers or other electronic signaling methods after they got caught with the trash cans. They cheated and they all should've been banned. Altuve "Don't rip off my shirt" was way guiltier than is commonly believed. 

Just like they are pushing Ippei to take the fall for what was much more likely Ohtani gambling -- or helping gamble -- no way they extended credit to an interpreter in the millions of dollars.

As far as the Cheating Astros, There may have been other teams doing it, but they didn't ever really investigate it after they caught the Astros. No one was really punished a the team should've been. That 2017 title should be vacated. 

 

None of that means HOU didn’t effectively tank, scout, draft, and develop well. They also should have been punished more severely for cheating in the end-of-season tournament. Both things can be true.