OC Register: Angels’ Ron Washington has a tentative lineup plan, with Anthony Rendon hitting cleanup

[Angelsfan1984]

Easy trade 

 

 

 

[ShotimeDynasty]

On 2/22/2024 at 4:45 PM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I would say the O'hoppe and Schanuel are going to be key for our success on the offensive side. 

O'hoppe ceiling to me is a a 280 350 OBP 25-30 HR and If he can get us 260 345OBP and about 25 hrs, that strengths our line-up.

Schanuel ceiling to me is a 290-310, 360 OBP and 15 to 20, which I could see if doing.

Your ceiling for O’Hoppe here is like a 65th percentile outcome on his current projections. You’re being way too conservative.

.280/.400 45 Home Run is a better ceiling for O’Hoppe imo

[jsnpritchett]

9 minutes ago, ShotimeDynasty said:

Your ceiling for O’Hoppe here is like a 65th percentile outcome on his current projections. You’re being way too conservative.

.280/.400 45 Home Run is a better ceiling for O’Hoppe imo

I see O'Hoppe has now graduated from a Gary Carter clone to the second coming of Johnny Bench.

I really wish people would chill a bit.  This is just like when people got upset with Kendrick and saw him as a disappointment because he wasn't a perennial batting champ.  O'Hoppe can still be very, very valuable even if he "only" puts up a .260/.345 BA/OBP with 25-30 HRs on a regular basis.  Almost no catchers do that.

[ShotimeDynasty]

16 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Boras/Bellinger lowers the asking price enough, or accepts a 2-3 year bloated contract…

3/$84M would feel like an Angels W and is a very nice AAV for the player 

[ShotimeDynasty]

6 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I see O'Hoppe has now graduated from a Gary Carter clone to the second coming of Johnny Bench.

I really wish people would chill a bit.  This is just like when people got upset with Kendrick and saw him as a disappointment because he wasn't a perennial batting champ.  O'Hoppe can still be very, very valuable even if he "only" puts up a .260/.345 BA/OBP with 25-30 HRs on a regular basis.  Almost no catchers do that.

Blame me if you must but I’m literally just looking at numerous projections and pointing out that 25 HR with a .260/.345 is just a smidge above those. Not my fault he showed excellent plate discipline in AA followed by terrific output in his first MLB season. Projections see that and have acted accordingly

 

edit: my stated ceiling for O’Hoppe assumes he could get 150 GP with frequent DH days and is meant to be like a 95th percentile outcome

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, ShotimeDynasty said:

Blame me if you must but I’m literally just looking at numerous projections and pointing out that 25 HR with a .260/.345 is just a smidge above those. Not my fault he showed excellent plate discipline in AA followed by terrific output in his first MLB season. Projections see that and have acted accordingly

Where are you seeing these projections?

[ShotimeDynasty]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Where are you seeing these projections?

 

[jsnpritchett]

12 minutes ago, ShotimeDynasty said:

 

Sorry, didn't realize you were just going off the projections for this season.  I thought you were saying you were looking at something for his career moving forward.

The record for HR in a single season by a player who primarily played C is 48 (Salvador Perez in 2021).  Johnny Bench is second at 45.  There have only been six total 40+ HR season by a guy who primarily played C.

[Docwaukee]

Wash said a bunch of things here I'm not a big fan of.  It's probably not overly impactful considering that lineup construction isn't really all that important but the overall mentality is a bit old school for my taste.  

 

[ShotimeDynasty]

5 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sorry, didn't realize you were just going off the projections for this season.  I thought you were saying you were looking at something for his career moving forward.

The record for HR in a single season by a player who primarily played C is 48 (Salvador Perez in 2021).  Johnny Bench is second at 45.  There have only been six total 40+ HR season by a guy who primarily played C.

Please understand a ceiling is not an expectation.

 

O’Hoppe up to shoulder injury on April 20th:

3/30-4/20 (22 calendar days)
.283 AVG
4 HR
13% Barrel
44% Hard Hit

Returned 8/18 and struggled initially. BUT:

9/8 to EOY (24 calendar days)
.270 AVG
8 HR
22% Barrel
47% Hard Hit

 

Over 66 days O’Hoppe hit 12 home runs. That’s a 33 HR pace over a full season and just one of those games came as DH. If he’s in the lineup everyday with regular DH appearances 40 home runs is not an unreasonable outcome for him. Unless you’re certain he showed us his ceiling in his first MLB action?

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, ShotimeDynasty said:

Please understand a ceiling is not an expectation.

 

O’Hoppe up to shoulder injury on April 20th:

3/30-4/20 (22 calendar days)
.283 AVG
4 HR
13% Barrel
44% Hard Hit

Returned 8/18 and struggled initially. BUT:

9/8 to EOY (24 calendar days)
.270 AVG
8 HR
22% Barrel
47% Hard Hit

 

Over 66 days O’Hoppe hit 12 home runs. That’s a 33 HR pace over a full season and just one of those games came as DH. If he’s in the lineup everyday with regular DH appearances 40 home runs is not an unreasonable outcome for him. Unless you’re certain he showed us his ceiling in his first MLB action?

I understand what a ceiling is and I have not said that I think he reached his ceiling in '23.  I still think even throwing around stuff like "his ceiling is 45 HR" can only lead to disappointment, though, even if it's not an "expectation".  Barring some unforeseen injury, he's likely to be a very good player--even if he consistently comes in a little under the projections the various systems have for him in '24. I'll just be happy with that and anything else is just gravy.

[ShotimeDynasty]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I understand what a ceiling is and I have not said that I think he reached his ceiling in '23.  I still think even throwing around stuff like "his ceiling is 45 HR" can only lead to disappointment, though, even if it's not an "expectation".  Barring some unforeseen injury, he's likely to be a very good player--even if he consistently comes in a little under the projections the various systems have for him in '24. I'll just be happy with that and anything else is just gravy.

Should we just agree as a group not to refer to a player’s ceiling? Cuz that’s what got this back and forth started. Somebody else threw out what I perceived to be an incredibly conservative ceiling and I simply came back with my own thoughts as to what O’Hoppe’s best case scenario could look like.

[ThisismineScios]

Mickey Moniak batting leadoff is not a good idea. I really hope he changes his mind on that one. 

[Rollinghard]

Moniak is not very good. Very streaky and prone to slump. He is not a lead off hitter. It not like he is going to steal 50 bags so Wash's idea about clogging up the bases is silly. Schanuel or Ward are better choices.

 

[Kendo36]

Love Wash but he needs to see some games before throwing out Moniak in the lead off and Rendon at clean up. This lineup really needs another 25 HR bat.