The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Damn. I thought Gray and Lugo were the best arms per cost. Both gone 

Kind of nuts the Royals have more active so far than the Angels.

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

He walks a lot but his contact is really weak. He's far from perfect, but he'd help us a ton IMO 

He's extremely talented, he's just not someone that can be looked at to eat innings like you would expect in a number one or number two pitcher.

[mmc]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Kind of nuts the Royals have more active so far than the Angels.

The fact that they haven’t been active early when they usually are under Perry makes me think Arte wants the money to put aside for the stars (first Shohei, now probably Yamamoto, or Bellinger/Snell)

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

By the way, i'd MUCH prefer seth lugo at 15M per year for 3 years than Tyler Anderson at 13M per year. But thats just me.

A bunch of us didn't even want him at 3/39. 

[totdprods]

I think we're gonna wind up with Shane Bieber.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

The fact that they haven’t been active early when they usually are under Perry makes me think Arte wants the money to put aside for the stars (first Shohei, now probably Yamamoto, or Bellinger/Snell)

I really hope they don't go after Bellinger.  Handedness, position wise, dude make sense.  But those batted ball numbers leave me cold.  His defense makes it so you can look past his offense to a degree -- but he's going to get paid like he's the hitter he was last year (I think).

[Erstad Grit]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I really hope they don't go after Bellinger.  Handedness, position wise, dude make sense.  But those batted ball numbers leave me cold.  His defense makes it so you can look past his offense to a degree -- but he's going to get paid like he's the hitter he was last year (I think).

Not long ago he was literally one of the worst players in baseball

[mmc]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I really hope they don't go after Bellinger.  Handedness, position wise, dude make sense.  But those batted ball numbers leave me cold.  His defense makes it so you can look past his offense to a degree -- but he's going to get paid like he's the hitter he was last year (I think).

Yeah Yamamoto and Montgomery are the 2 guys I’d be ok with among the guys likely to get 9 figures.  Don’t have much interest in Snell, Bellinger, or Chapman and I wouldn’t give Hader a long term deal either.  

[ScottM]

Montgomery and/or Imanaga are the best path forward. You'd have to flip Sandoval or Detmers for a RHH but it would work.

[mmc]

 

[Chuck]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think we're gonna wind up with Shane Bieber.

I'm afraid to know what the cost is going to be. 

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, mmc said:

Yeah Yamamoto and Montgomery are the 2 guys I’d be ok with among the guys likely to get 9 figures.  Don’t have much interest in Snell, Bellinger, or Chapman and I wouldn’t give Hader a long term deal either.  

I too prefer Montgomery to the rest -- Snell is easily the best pitcher available but that iffy injury history is worrisome, even more than the lack of innings. I think JM's time with the Rangers last season likely raised his asking price.

I know it didn't go as planned but I liked last season's approach of spreading it around.  A good SP and a couple 2 fWAR guys and I'd be happy.  

[BTH]

29 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

By the way, i'd MUCH prefer seth lugo at 15M per year for 3 years than Tyler Anderson at 13M per year. But thats just me.

And at this time last year, you would’ve said you’d much prefer Anderson at 3/$39M than Lugo at 3/$45M

Easy to say in hindsight.

Both Anderson (2022) and Lugo (2023) had a breakout season. Anderson regressed hard. We’ll see how Lugo does.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

I know it didn't go as planned but I liked last season's approach of spreading it around.  A good SP and a couple 2 fWAR guys and I'd be happy.  

I think they’ll spread it out again.

The questions are just:

- How much money will Arte give Perry to spread out?

- Which guys can they get to take their money?

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Chuck said:

I'm afraid to know what the cost is going to be. 

Cleveland is good at letting arms go at the right time. He had some forearm soreness. He has only one year left. Been working at Driveline. SoCal ties. Has the hardware the org can flout like he’ll be a huge add. Which he might be. But feels like he checks many usual boxes.

Think it’d be something like Rengifo, Silseth, Rada…an overpay.

[totdprods]

Montgomery smells like Corbin 2.0, IMO. 

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Not long ago he was literally one of the worst players in baseball

Offensively, yes.  I don't want the guy, I could bore everyone with data why, but he's brought value with his glove. I won't hang an Erstad comp on him but like Ersty the glove can be so good it makes the offense less of an issue.

But he's going to get paid like he can hit well.

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Cleveland is good at letting arms go at the right time. He had some forearm soreness. He has only one year left. Been working at Driveline. SoCal ties. Has the hardware the org can flout like he’ll be a huge add. Which he might be. But feels like he checks many usual boxes.

Think it’d be something like Rengifo, Silseth, Rada…an overpay.

If people looked at those numbers, who here would view him as a big get?

He's looking very much like a guy that could be running on fumes.

[mmc]

Honestly ever since Ohtani made his announcement I've been more hopeful we’d get news that Snell and Bellinger signed elsewhere so that we don’t pivot there than news of the Angels doing anything

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

If people looked at those numbers, who here would view him as a big get?

He's looking very much like a guy that could be running on fumes.

Precisely why I think we wind up with him. Feels like he's a dozen starts away from TJS. 

I still like:

• Sandoval -> young infielder/outfielder to replace...looking at Milwaukee or Baltimore or Cincy.
• Rengifo -> young SP(s?) to replace Sandoval...looking at Miami.
• Drury and Estevez -> packaged or separately for best upper-level, high floor prospects or low-level high reward lotto tix to replace last year's deadline
• signing FA RP and IF/OF to 2-3 year deals -> essentially "replace/extend" Drury and Estevez into 2025 with similar players
• Sign Stroman, fuggit, 2/50
• Sign a 1-yr arm (Giolito, Montas, Flaherty, Ryu) and hope for the best

Edited December 12, 2023 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, BTH said:

And at this time last year, you would’ve said you’d much prefer Anderson at 3/$39M than Lugo at 3/$45M

Easy to say in hindsight.

Both Anderson (2022) and Lugo (2023) had a breakout season. Anderson regressed hard. We’ll see how Lugo does.

Well, considering I'm all about predictive data, you can save your little sermon about hindsight. I pay little attention to stuff like ERA and the sort. 

I liked Anderson as a value guy before he broke out, I never would have predicted what he did in LA because of that same predictive data -- but there are posts of mine BEFORE last year saying I didn't want him.

Not sure what sort of breakout you saw but Lugo was exactly the same pitcher he's always been last year -- only difference he was starting.

I tend to like guys like Gibson, Pineda, Lugo, because I view them as undervalued. I like them a lot less when they become more expensive.

Honestly it's the guys in the mid-range that I tend to steer clear of because they have the biggest bust rates.  The guys at the very top tend to do okay barring injuries.  

I just hope we keep drafting pitchers.

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Well, considering I'm all about predictive data, you can save your little sermon about hindsight. I pay little attention to stuff like ERA and the sort. 

Well, I was quoting @Make Angels Great Again and not you.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, BTH said:

I think they’ll spread it out again.

The questions are just:

- How much money will Arte give Perry to spread out?

- Which guys can they get to take their money?

I think they almost have to pay for a good arm -- not sure it's in the organizations best interest to trade player capital for one.

And yeah -- getting guys to take their money may be the hardest part.

[Inside Pitch]

28 minutes ago, BTH said:

Well, I was quoting @Make Angels Great Again and not you.

No I get that and honestly my post came off bitchier than I intended it to, so sorry for that.

There were just a bunch of us who were dead set against Anderson -- which is funny in part because I believe many of us that were had previously liked him as an undervalued guy while the shift was in play.

To be fair -- I fully believe he's capable of a 4.25-4.50 ERA and 6 innings a start, I just think teams can find that for cheaper.

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

No I get that and honestly my post came off bitchier than I intended it to, so sorry for that.

There were just a bunch of us who were dead set against Anderson -- which is funny in part because I believe many of us that were++ had liked him as an undervalued guy while the shift was in play.

To be fair -- I fully believe he's capable of a 4.25-4.50 ERA and 6 innings a start, I just think teams can find that for cheaper.

I liked the signing at the time and I expected some regression, but I didn't think it would be that bad.

I don't think he's going to be that bad going forward, either.

The thing that looks bad in hindsight is that the front office wanted to emphasize more swing and miss due to the rule changes, but their biggest offseason pitching acquisition was a guy who didn't live off swing and miss.