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A Case for Blanton over Williams


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For the record, I would first like to make it clear that I like Jerome Williams.  He definitely deserves to stay in the rotation.  But I would also like to point out, for the sake of conversation, that with the exception of his first start of the season, against Baltimore, a game in which Jerome did not fare well, he has more or less pitched against a collection of some of the worst hitters in the American League.  Chicago (twice), Seattle, Kansas City, and Houston.  

 

As much as Joe Blanton has sucked this year, I wouldn't be surprised if, given equal opportunity, he out-pitches Jerome from here on out.  Of course, barring an injury, they won't be given equal opportunity.  But nevertheless, I think it stands to reason.  

 

They're only a year apart in age, and Blanton has the more consistent career numbers.  In addition, as I learned from Vin Scully the other day, Joe is a notorious "second half pitcher."  His last three starts he has pitched like a completely different person.  I think Vin said he's something like 16-8 in his career in September.  I wouldn't be shocked.  That's all I'm saying.  

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Plus where is the Hanson vs. Williams comparison?

Hanson isn't even = to Blanton since late April, granted missing a lot of time since then.

Is Scioscia giving Hanson a few more starts (benefit of doubt) because he missed a month?

Hanson also has a poor Ks/BBs ratio, and strikes out just 5 batters/9 innings. 

Blanton's pitch count the past 3 starts is also only around 14-15 per inning.

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Plus where is the Hanson vs. Williams comparison?

Hanson isn't even = to Blanton since late April, granted missing a lot of time since then.

Is Scioscia giving Hanson a few more starts (benefit of doubt) because he missed a month?

Good point.  I think Hanson definitely deserves a few more starts because he missed a month; but I wouldn't be surprised if Joe and/or Jerome out-pitch him for the rest of the year, or vice versa.   

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Jerome doesn't deserve to be out of this rotation, not until he mightily struggles. 

 

It really doesn't matter what the salaries are or who the players are, when you have a player who is completely outperforming the other one through 2 months, you keep the better player. 

 

I hope Blanton is still on a short leash because it's entirely unfair that Williams has been fantastic as a starter and is getting demoted. 

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Sorry there is no case. Blanton has also pitched against his fair share of poor offenses and has been lit up. In fact his last 6 starts came against Houston(twice), KC(twice), CWS, and LAD and he has been sporting a 5.11 ERA during that stretch.

tennis, I think you're missing my point.  I never tried to argue that Joe Blanton has out-pitched Jerome Williams to this point.  I think the numbers are a pretty obvious indicator otherwise.  All I'm saying is that I think Blanton could wind up surprising a lot of people and having a pretty good second half.  And I'm basing this opinion off of trends and career numbers; it's not like I'm pulling this stuff out of my a$$.  

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tennis, I think you're missing my point.  I never tried to argue that Joe Blanton has out-pitched Jerome Williams to this point.  I think the numbers are a pretty obvious indicator otherwise.  All I'm saying is that I think Blanton could wind up surprising a lot of people and having a pretty good second half.  And I'm basing this opinion off of trends and career numbers; it's not like I'm pulling this stuff out of my a$$.  

I get your point what was the point of pointing out that Jerome has pitched vs weak offenses. You could have just said that Blanton should stay because of the 1st half/ 2nd half splits.

 

But even if that is your point a) there is over a month left in the 1st half and b ) the 2nd half numbers are identical for both Blanton and Williams with Jerome having slightly better numbers.

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What do you mean "the 2nd half numbers are identical for both Blanton and Williams with Jerome having slightly better numbers"?  If a guy has five major league at bats in his career and gets two hits, is he a better hitter than Pete Rose?  You have to take sample size into consideration, my friend.   What are Jerome's career numbers in September?  How many innings pitched?  And in what role--long relief?  All these things make a difference.  

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Williams has logged 283.0 innings in the 2nd half, that's not that small of a sample size.

No, you're right.  But how many of those innings were the last three innings of a blowout, where half the starters were on the bench?  Also, Blanton has logged over 1,500 career innings pitched as a starter.  The difference in sample size is extensive, and you can't compare the numbers of a long reliever to a starter.    

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What do you mean "the 2nd half numbers are identical for both Blanton and Williams with Jerome having slightly better numbers"?  If a guy has five major league at bats in his career and gets two hits, is he a better hitter than Pete Rose?  You have to take sample size into consideration, my friend.   What are Jerome's career numbers in September?  How many innings pitched?  And in what role--long relief?  All these things make a difference.  

Just one quick reply here, as someone who has been around for majority of Jerome's career... I can vouch that he is almost always a better second half pitcher and usually starts out slow. This year has been a good one because the only time he started out slow was in the spring. That being said he will do what he has to do to help the team, no matter what role it is. His one negative for himself is a positive for the team in that he is versatile and can pitch either role.

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I completely agree, taimak.  And, again, for the record: I hope Jerome stays in the rotation and keeps throwing lights out.  In retrospect, tennis, you're probably right: I shouldn't have dragged him into this.  This was supposed to be a pro-Joe Blanton thread.  Not an anti-Jerome Williams one.  If anything, like AO suggested, I should have made the case Blanton vs. Hanson.    

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No, you're right.  But how many of those innings were the last three innings of a blowout, where half the starters were on the bench?  Also, Blanton has logged over 1,500 career innings pitched as a starter.  The difference in sample size is extensive, and you can't compare the numbers of a long reliever to a starter.    

I'm just looking at the numbers as a whole. Don't know where to find the numbers you are looking for nor do I have time right now. You can try to find them if you'd like but you completely overlooked the biggest flaw in you case. There is over a month left in the first half!

 

Oh and Blanton has pitched over 1500 innings in his career but only 600 of those came in the second half. That should tell you something.

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Like I said, I should have made the case of Blanton vs Hanson.  Nevertheless, tennis, I find it difficult to compare 600 innings pitched by a starter to 283 thrown by a starter/long reliever.  Out of curiosity, where are you finding these second half stats?  I looked on ESPN put could only get season totals.  

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Just one quick reply here, as someone who has been around for majority of Jerome's career... I can vouch that he is almost always a better second half pitcher and usually starts out slow. This year has been a good one because the only time he started out slow was in the spring. That being said he will do what he has to do to help the team, no matter what role it is. His one negative for himself is a positive for the team in that he is versatile and can pitch either role.

 

 

Great attitude!!

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Agreed Chuck, we obviosly like Jerome.  That doesn't change the fact that he has clearly been our most consistent starter this entire season.  If they were putting him in a closing role or set-up I could maybe understand this.  That isn't what they are doing though, he is going to be the mop up guy.  That is what AAA scrubs are for, not one of your best starters.

 

Chad, I like your optimism about Blanton, but this decision sucks, it just does.

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Oh my god.  First words of this post: "For the record, I would first like to make it clear that I like Jerome Williams.  He definitely deserves to stay in the rotation."

 

I simply made a case for Blanton, and said that I wouldn't be surprised if he out-pitches Williams during the second half.  That's it!   What "decision" sucks, MT?  I never made a decision.  

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