AngelsWin.com Today: 2019 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Production

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Before we can make educated guesses at what moves the Angels will make over the 2018-2019 off-season, we need to understand what they did produce in 2018. You cannot fix something if  you do not know what is broken or in need of repair.

Below are two tables, that include all 30 MLB teams, with one sorted by ‘wRC+’ and the other by FanGraphs ‘DEF’:

2018 MLB Teams Sorted by Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

2018 MLB Teams Sorted by FanGraphs Defense (DEF)

As you can see the Angels did relatively well, ranking in the top half of all teams in both wRC+ and DEF. As a team against LHP the team performed poorly, ranking 23rd out of all 30 teams in wRC+. Versus RHP, they did well ranking 6th overall using the same metric. Generally, the offense benefited a bit more from slugging in the batter’s box as evidenced by their ranking in home runs and ISO for the year.

Flipping to the pitching side, there are two tables below, one for starters and the other for relievers, listing all 30 teams, sorted by K%-BB%:

2018 MLB Teams (Starters) Sorted by Strikeout Minus Walk Percentage (K-BB%)

2018 MLB Teams (Relievers) Sorted by Strikeout Minus Walk Percentage (K-BB%)

Here, the Angels were middle-of-the-pack, with the rotation doing a bit better than the bullpen. Results against left-handed hitters were average while the outcome versus right-handed hitters was a little less palatable.

So what gives? Why did the Angels not perform better overall?

It is actually really difficult to point to any one thing as the root cause as nothing in particular stands out. Offense and defense were above average. The rotation was a touch above average and the relief corps was below average, but not terribly so.

Interestingly, Angels hitters led the League in Pull% as seen in the table below:

This means they hit the ball to the same side of the batter’s box, rather than hitting it up the middle or to the opposite part of the field. This almost certainly contributed to their BABIP issue as it became easier for opposing teams to set up defensive shifts on our hitters (ranked 28th with a wRC+ of 63) because they know we hit the ball so much to one side of the field.

The caveat to hitting the ball so much to the pull side is that the Angels were 8th overall in Hard% contact, which allowed them to defeat those defensive shifts more often because their exit velocities off the bat were harder, putting the ball over the head or out of the reach of defenders. The teams line drive (LD%) and fly ball (FB%) percentages reflect their ability to keep the ball in the air at a consistently above average rate.

One may be apt to wonder if the Halos and perhaps other teams have discovered an inefficiency or advantage to stacking the lineup with so many pull-side hitters with better hard-hit rates? A lot of teams with high Pull% rates also happen to be playoff contenders so it makes one wonder what the advantage may be or is it simply coincidence.

Maybe hitting to the outfield corners, more, is an advantage for right-handed hitters because defensively most teams place their worst outfield defenders in left field? Could power to the corners potentially be advantageous due to ballpark dimensions, overall? There seems to be something to it and it could be a combination of both pull hitting and power and maybe other factors, like the ones above, this analysis did not deep dive into at this time.

Earlier in the season the Angels were running a reasonably modest run differential but then, once the season got out of reach, ended up at -1 to end the year. Additionally they over-performed their expected runs (RE24) a bit but it was marginal in comparison to other teams as seen below:

Hit sequencing (RE24 minus Bat) was an issue as the Angels ranked 24th overall at 8.38 (for reference the League average was 29.08). This simply means that the team as a whole did not score as many runs as expected based on their below average hit sequencing from batter to batter in the lineup. We should note that the team’s focus on pull power and the resulting defensive shifts probably impacted this hit sequencing calculation.

Looking at team stats with runners in scoring, men on base, and bases empty, the Angels were average or better overall based on wRC+ so that was a marginal positive in their favor.

Walks were a touch below League average (bad). Strikeouts were below average (good). Offensive Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) was worst in the League so that hurt the team. Pitching BABIP was average.

So beyond the raw numbers, perhaps their absence from the post-season had something to do with the individual players?

Certainly, there were members of the team who under-performed, some wildly so, and we will examine in detail each position in subsequent articles of the Primer Series.

Over the past handful of years, the Angels have run out more of a stars and scrubs type of team with players like Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani, being the more notable producers, and a laundry list of league average or replacement players trying their best to compete, but simply unable to make a significant impact in many cases. It did not help that the pitching staff had so many injuries as well.

In the end you can continue to parse out the season but it really just comes down to some bad luck, unfortunate circumstances (injuries), and some mediocrity among individual members of the team. Better luck with balls in play (really hitters who can spray the ball), a boost in production against left-handed pitchers, and an improved bullpen would put the Angels in an enhanced spot, assuming the other 2018 numbers hold true in 2019.

The actual fix here is broad but solvable. Finding one or more position players with high on-base skills, the ability to capably handle left-handed pitching, and maintain quality defense will be important. Adding a starter and perhaps a bullpen piece that can improve our numbers against both left- and right-handed hitters, particularly the latter, will be a tremendous improvement too, particularly in the rotation. Above all, health and team depth will be keys to the Angels success in 2019.

It is up to Billy Eppler to build a winner and it seems like the base is there, just like last off-season, to create a competitive team to take the Angels to the playoffs and a chance to win their 2nd World Series Championship.

In the next section we will discuss Team Depth.

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[ettin]

In case you missed it....

[Second Base]

I actually really liked this. It made me see the Angels issues from a different perspective. You'd think the lineup is unbalanced and lacks depth, so they need a middle of the order left handed hitter, and while that's still true to a degree, it seems that a high contact hitter that uses the whole field, and hits left handed pitching and bats in front of Mike Trout would actually be more beneficial for the offense than the former. So instead of targeting Mike Moustakas and spending millions in free agency, they legitimately may be better off simply promoting and playing Luis Rengifo, bold as that may be. 

[ettin]

48 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I actually really liked this. It made me see the Angels issues from a different perspective. You'd think the lineup is unbalanced and lacks depth, so they need a middle of the order left handed hitter, and while that's still true to a degree, it seems that a high contact hitter that uses the whole field, and hits left handed pitching and bats in front of Mike Trout would actually be more beneficial for the offense than the former. So instead of targeting Mike Moustakas and spending millions in free agency, they legitimately may be better off simply promoting and playing Luis Rengifo, bold as that may be. 

You mentioned Christian Villanueva in a different thread and it was interesting to me because he is an extreme pull hitter so it made a little bit of sense to me as a corner backup infielder. However as we all know he is heading to Japan to get paid more.

[Second Base]

19 minutes ago, ettin said:

You mentioned Christian Villanueva in a different thread and it was interesting to me because he is an extreme pull hitter so it made a little bit of sense to me as a corner backup infielder. However as we all know he is heading to Japan to get paid more.

As I understand, the prospects being discussed were not in the top 30, and so I understand why the Padres took the money being offered from Tokyo. But since the Angels were lukewarm on him (yet interested), this is just me guessing, but it seems to me that Eppler is hoping to bring in more "impactful" talent.

[Chuck]

I'm in Vegas on vacation so I just got done reading. Good stuff, Robert.

[Blarg]

On 11/20/2018 at 11:57 AM, AngelsWin.com said:

As you can see the Angels did relatively well, ranking in the top half of all teams in both wRC+ and DEF.

Now, can we be realistic here?

The Angels were 9th in wRC+ in the American league. They were not top or middle, they were closer to the bottom. That is the real numbers you have to keep in mind, their competition for the pennant does not come from the National league. In fact, in their own Western Division they ranked 4 of 5. 

So they didn't do relatively well, in fact they were poor at best. 

The bright spot is DEF. Scrape away the National league and the Angels are tops in the American league. 

Yay team?

[Pablo]

The hit sequencing issue seems really insightful to me. Without digging too deeply, it just seems like the "need", or perhaps "felt need" to put AP in the heart of the order could be responsible for alot of that. I was never on the Dump Scioscia bandwagon, but creating an effective lineup is the managers most important day-to-day contribution. I don't know if Ausmus will have the leeway (or the stones) to make lineup modifications, but that sure seems to be an area that needs to be shored up.

[Angel Oracle]

For sure, they need a) a real leadoff hitter in front of Trout, b) a durable middle of rotation RHP starter, c) a solid closer, d) better rotation health, e) Cozart to be what he was in Cincy before the fluke year there, f) Pujols hitting no higher than 5th/6th, and g) no more Joyce’s/Valnobuena’s/etc. dotting the lineup.

[ettin]

On 11/22/2018 at 1:25 AM, Blarg said:

Now, can we be realistic here?

The Angels were 9th in wRC+ in the American league. They were not top or middle, they were closer to the bottom. That is the real numbers you have to keep in mind, their competition for the pennant does not come from the National league. In fact, in their own Western Division they ranked 4 of 5. 

So they didn't do relatively well, in fact they were poor at best. 

The bright spot is DEF. Scrape away the National league and the Angels are tops in the American league. 

Yay team?

I was very clear it was relative to all 30 MLB teams and against that group they did perform above average. Yes when you compare it to the A.L. it is not as rosy @Blarg but my greater point is that the team as a whole probably should have been better than they were. There are a lot of factors to consider including the injuries, the poorer performance in the last couple months of the season, and other items that I discussed.

The point of this particular article was to show that broad improvements can help the team in 2019. Based on what we are seeing now in the off-season it is really the Astros and A's we have to beat in all probability so I think the outlook is not as bleak as it may appear to some (and may not be as good as what others think). When you have two of your Division-rivals purposely taking a step back (or at least that is what they are saying and indicating) that increases the odds that the team can capture the Division or Wild Card in the A.L. West.

[Blarg]

The Angels a further away than tilted stats say they are. They are competing with three teams that were better than they were in their own division. How much they can leapfrog the dissaray that are the Mariners or gain ground on the ever changing A's is questionable this off season. 

The offense gets better simply by subtraction. Gone are the black holes like Valbuena and Pujols role is going to be managed with less regard to stature as stats. 

Unless they can get their pitching in order the Angels will still be no better than third in the AL West.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

The Angels a further away than tilted stats say they are. They are competing with three teams that were better than they were in their own division. How much they can leapfrog the dissaray that are the Mariners or gain ground on the ever changing A's is questionable this off season. 

The offense gets better simply by subtraction. Gone are the black holes like Valbuena and Pujols role is going to be managed with less regard to stature as stats. 

Unless they can get their pitching in order the Angels will still be no better than third in the AL West.

Although I don't think they are going to light the world on fire with their improvements this off-season I do think they will improve enough to actually compete.