Angels farm system (player development) still trending upwards?

[JVel17]

Last year our favorite OC Register reporter, Jeff Fletcher, wrote a 3 part article about Angels "Farm Failures" in which the 3rd part noted the player development system was trending upwards.

Some examples were not only related to drafting, but a change in some player development philosophies, emphasis on a more balanced approach to modern technologies (rather than an over emphasis under Eppler), increased pay to their minor league coaches, etc.

As it is now a year later, is there any feedback on whether the "trending upwards" is continuing?

Any specific positives?

Any specific concerns?

Thanks.

[Angelsjunky]

It is hard to say. There is very little talent on the farm - a few guys here and there, but no one who looks like a sure thing to even be an average major league regular (unless we count Schanuel and maybe Rada).

But in terms of developtment philosophies and such, we won't know for a few years until it starts paying dividends (or not). Meaning, there isn't really any way to assess the type of stuff you mentioned, at least in the short term. Ultimately the proof is in the pudding, and add in the fact that Minasian traded away a good chunk of the better prospects, it will likely take several years to get a sense of things. 

[JVel17]

Thank you AngelsJunky.  Agreed, proof is years away.  However I was just wondering if there has been any reports, positive or negative, that would relate to the continuing organizational "priorities" (or regression of such priorities), of the player development "infrastructure" and not necessarily the current quality of the stable of young players. You are right that it is very hard to quantify such a thing that I am mentioning as these types of things are not necessarily reported on like what happens at the major league level.

Some examples could be whether there is a continuing highly prioritized emphasis (or potential regression of such emphasis) to build a well paid player development staff (including coaches), improvements in nutrition, conditioning, and anything else that may show Arte and Perry are continuing the higher prioritization of the player development system from the last couple years that was reported by Jeff Fletcher in OC Register approximately 1 year ago.

Was not sure if there have been any recent reports of such information (other than what Jeff Fletcher reported a year ago).

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by JVel17

[Dgar24]

Wondering how our all pitcher draft is playing out, has anyone ever looked into their development?

[Redondo]

1 hour ago, JVel17 said:

Last year our favorite OC Register reporter, Jeff Fletcher, wrote a 3 part article about Angels "Farm Failures" in which the 3rd part noted the player development system was trending upwards.

Some examples were not only related to drafting, but a change in some player development philosophies, emphasis on a more balanced approach to modern technologies (rather than an over emphasis under Eppler), increased pay to their minor league coaches, etc.

As it is now a year later, is there any feedback on whether the "trending upwards" is continuing?

Any specific positives?

Any specific concerns?

Thanks.

 

There is a lot of information about the minor leagues in this thread

 

[Dtwncbad]

If we have learned anything at all in the past week, anny optimism of any kind about this team is crazy talk.  Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

[totdprods]

I posted this about the 20-pitcher draft back in July in the minor league threads…

One year later...how does everyone feel? 
My very rough assessment...good, okay, and 'bad'.

• 1st: Sam Bachman 
  It's a plus that he's reached the bigs quickly and looked solid, but I'm still personally a little iffy on this pick, and his recent IL stint with shoulder inflammation doesn't ease that. He feels like a good reliever who will be prone to injuries and wildness, and seeing Matt McClain and Gavin Williams producing well in the bigs now too (hindsight will ring true with any draft, I know) I can't help but be a little disappointed here. Still, he's a good, young arm and he's in the bigs, and perhaps more importantly, his underslot deal allowed the Angels to sign Albright and Silseth.
   
• 2nd: Ky Bush
  2023 has been a letdown - 8.28 ERA in 7 starts, but only 25 IP, and he's been fairly hittable and wild in the minors, but still enough promise there to be a good pick. Andrew Abbott, drafted after Bush by the Reds, is sporting a 2.45 ERA in ~48 IP in the bigs so far, and a handsome WHIP of 1.00. Cincy did well drafting McClain and Abbott. 
   
• 3rd: Landon Marceaux
  Marceaux was turned into one-half of Eduardo Escobar. Kind of a bummer, and maybe not the best value from a 3rd round arm - especially since it also cost another good arm on top of it.
   
• 4th: Luke Murphy
  Vandy reliever looked great his first two seasons on the farm, but has had a really rough year for Rocket City (5.97 ERA, 36 hits, 19 BB in 28.2 IP). I'll credit some of the blame to the doctored balls they're using, but still a little worrisome here. He was sort of anticipated to figure into the Halos bullpen pretty quick and he's stalled somewhat. 
   
• 5th: Brett Kerry
  Sort of just feels like an org arm. Decent 4.28 ERA and solid numbers in AA. 
   
• 6th: Jake Smith
  Has stalled out with three years now in Tri-City, the most recent being ugly - 35 hits and 33 runs and 22 walks allowed, in only 23 IP.
   
• 7th: Ryan Costieu
  Might not be too surprising to hear that after conversion to pseudo-starting last year, despite a pure relief profile, Costieu has wound up missing all of 2023 with an elbow injury before the season even started. Still, he was effective before (3.45 WRA, 112 K and only 25 BB in 86 IP), and presuming this is just a regular TJS, he's still a potential factor down the line.
   
• 8th: Nick Jones
  A big ol' 6'6" lefty, Jones has pitched well since being drafted, and has harnessed his control in '23, while posting big K numbers and limiting hits (24 hits, 44 K, 10 BB in 34.2 IP) and seeing as how he's now in AA, could be in Anaheim as soon as this year, tbh. 
   
• 9th: Braden Olthoff
  Grading him a little tough here...he's missed the entire '23 season so far with an undisclosed injury, and his '21 and '22 campaigns were just sort of okay at best. Average numbers across the board, likely an org arm coupled with injury.
   
• 10th: Andrew Peters
  Currently injured, has only pitched 3 IP in '23, and only 17.2 IP since being drafted, about half of those in Rookie Ball. At 24, this isn't looking too great. 
   
• 11th: Chase Silseth
  Pretty great pick here, and like mentioned earlier, one that balances out any of the iffiness about Bachman in the first given the slot money context. Even if he tops out as a reliever, the quick ascent, solid results to date, and intriguing stuff make this a great pick.
   
• 12th: Mason Albright
  One of my favorite picks in the draft, Albright has rebounded after an ugly '22 to post a '23 to start dreaming on. Two years younger than his A-ball competition, Albright has a 4.02 ERA across 66.2 IP in 13 G/12 GS, showing strong command with 19 BB to 72 K. I feel like there's a decent MLB SP here. 
   
• 13th: Mo Hanley
  Talented and an exciting pick at the time, even though it was known he'd be out with TJS. Only managed one appearance (not a good one at that) before going back on the IL. Turns 24 today, so, not promising.
   
• 14th: Eric Torres
  I have to assume Torres is one of the pitchers who has suffered from the pre-tacked AA balls. An electric '22 (23 BB, 81 K, 2.29 ERA in 51 IP) has dramatically reversed in '23, with more walks (28) than IP (22) and an ERA over 9.00. The strong strikeout rate has maintained. 
   
• 15th: Glenn Albanese
  Already had one TJS before draft, and has missed all of '23 with injury. Pitched well, but not well enough to shake what has to be emerging long-term health question marks.
   
• 16th: Brandon Dufault
  Another AA reliever whose control has vanished, with 19 BB and 19 K in 20.2 IP. Now on the 60-day IL as of early July. Still some long-term relief potential, but will be 25 in '24 with a career ERA of 5.06 in the minors if he doesn't return this season, which seems unlikely.
   
• 17th: Mason Erla
  Has had a pretty bad '23; lots of walks, lots of hits, lots of earned runs, no dominant K numbers, but the org has promoted him aggressively and he has a decent track record, plus a solid spring showing. Currently injured, but still promise here.
   
• 18th: Nick Mondak
  Has yet to break past A+ ball with a ERA above 5. Org arm.
   
• 19th: Nathan Burns
  Older reliever who has also dealt with injury, wildness, and AA ball issues (9 walks against 4 K and 11 hits in 5.2 AA innings). Clock's a ticking...

The 20th round pick, Marcelo Perez, did not sign. He was selected in the 11th round the following year by Seattle, and has a 3.68 ERA in 10 GS/44 IP for Seattle's A-level club, with solid numbers across the board.

Good picks: 5/19
Mixed/decent picks: 5/19
'Bad' picks: 9/19

Overall this still grades out as a pretty good draft to date, even with Bachman maybe not being the 'best' first-rounder, given how Silseth and Albright have developed. Any draft that lands you 4-5 viable pitching prospects (Bachman, Silseth, Bush, Alright, a combo of Murphy/Erla) in just two years time later has to be seen as successful, even if the other 15 arms selected are starting to wobble. Drafting a bunch of college relievers has proved to be a little risky, as a fair number have had injury or lack of command stall their progress. The real measure of this draft's success likely comes in 2024; will any of the injured arms rebound into MLB depth? Will Erla, Muprhy, or Albright step forward? Will Bush push into the bigs? Are Silseth and Bachman going to cut it as above-average arms, and if so, will they ever stick in the rotation? 

Note that I intentionally did not consider international signees or UDFA like Kenyon Yovan.

[JVel17]

Thank you Redondo.  The thread you noted has much good information about farm related topics.  I will review to see if the thread may have info that relates to my questions about current/ongoing organizational "priorities" relating to player development (information that may not be readily available).

[Dgar24]

21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I posted this about the 20-pitcher draft back in July in the minor league threads…

One year later...how does everyone feel? 
My very rough assessment...good, okay, and 'bad'.

• 1st: Sam Bachman 
  It's a plus that he's reached the bigs quickly and looked solid, but I'm still personally a little iffy on this pick, and his recent IL stint with shoulder inflammation doesn't ease that. He feels like a good reliever who will be prone to injuries and wildness, and seeing Matt McClain and Gavin Williams producing well in the bigs now too (hindsight will ring true with any draft, I know) I can't help but be a little disappointed here. Still, he's a good, young arm and he's in the bigs, and perhaps more importantly, his underslot deal allowed the Angels to sign Albright and Silseth.
   
• 2nd: Ky Bush
  2023 has been a letdown - 8.28 ERA in 7 starts, but only 25 IP, and he's been fairly hittable and wild in the minors, but still enough promise there to be a good pick. Andrew Abbott, drafted after Bush by the Reds, is sporting a 2.45 ERA in ~48 IP in the bigs so far, and a handsome WHIP of 1.00. Cincy did well drafting McClain and Abbott. 
   
• 3rd: Landon Marceaux
  Marceaux was turned into one-half of Eduardo Escobar. Kind of a bummer, and maybe not the best value from a 3rd round arm - especially since it also cost another good arm on top of it.
   
• 4th: Luke Murphy
  Vandy reliever looked great his first two seasons on the farm, but has had a really rough year for Rocket City (5.97 ERA, 36 hits, 19 BB in 28.2 IP). I'll credit some of the blame to the doctored balls they're using, but still a little worrisome here. He was sort of anticipated to figure into the Halos bullpen pretty quick and he's stalled somewhat. 
   
• 5th: Brett Kerry
  Sort of just feels like an org arm. Decent 4.28 ERA and solid numbers in AA. 
   
• 6th: Jake Smith
  Has stalled out with three years now in Tri-City, the most recent being ugly - 35 hits and 33 runs and 22 walks allowed, in only 23 IP.
   
• 7th: Ryan Costieu
  Might not be too surprising to hear that after conversion to pseudo-starting last year, despite a pure relief profile, Costieu has wound up missing all of 2023 with an elbow injury before the season even started. Still, he was effective before (3.45 WRA, 112 K and only 25 BB in 86 IP), and presuming this is just a regular TJS, he's still a potential factor down the line.
   
• 8th: Nick Jones
  A big ol' 6'6" lefty, Jones has pitched well since being drafted, and has harnessed his control in '23, while posting big K numbers and limiting hits (24 hits, 44 K, 10 BB in 34.2 IP) and seeing as how he's now in AA, could be in Anaheim as soon as this year, tbh. 
   
• 9th: Braden Olthoff
  Grading him a little tough here...he's missed the entire '23 season so far with an undisclosed injury, and his '21 and '22 campaigns were just sort of okay at best. Average numbers across the board, likely an org arm coupled with injury.
   
• 10th: Andrew Peters
  Currently injured, has only pitched 3 IP in '23, and only 17.2 IP since being drafted, about half of those in Rookie Ball. At 24, this isn't looking too great. 
   
• 11th: Chase Silseth
  Pretty great pick here, and like mentioned earlier, one that balances out any of the iffiness about Bachman in the first given the slot money context. Even if he tops out as a reliever, the quick ascent, solid results to date, and intriguing stuff make this a great pick.
   
• 12th: Mason Albright
  One of my favorite picks in the draft, Albright has rebounded after an ugly '22 to post a '23 to start dreaming on. Two years younger than his A-ball competition, Albright has a 4.02 ERA across 66.2 IP in 13 G/12 GS, showing strong command with 19 BB to 72 K. I feel like there's a decent MLB SP here. 
   
• 13th: Mo Hanley
  Talented and an exciting pick at the time, even though it was known he'd be out with TJS. Only managed one appearance (not a good one at that) before going back on the IL. Turns 24 today, so, not promising.
   
• 14th: Eric Torres
  I have to assume Torres is one of the pitchers who has suffered from the pre-tacked AA balls. An electric '22 (23 BB, 81 K, 2.29 ERA in 51 IP) has dramatically reversed in '23, with more walks (28) than IP (22) and an ERA over 9.00. The strong strikeout rate has maintained. 
   
• 15th: Glenn Albanese
  Already had one TJS before draft, and has missed all of '23 with injury. Pitched well, but not well enough to shake what has to be emerging long-term health question marks.
   
• 16th: Brandon Dufault
  Another AA reliever whose control has vanished, with 19 BB and 19 K in 20.2 IP. Now on the 60-day IL as of early July. Still some long-term relief potential, but will be 25 in '24 with a career ERA of 5.06 in the minors if he doesn't return this season, which seems unlikely.
   
• 17th: Mason Erla
  Has had a pretty bad '23; lots of walks, lots of hits, lots of earned runs, no dominant K numbers, but the org has promoted him aggressively and he has a decent track record, plus a solid spring showing. Currently injured, but still promise here.
   
• 18th: Nick Mondak
  Has yet to break past A+ ball with a ERA above 5. Org arm.
   
• 19th: Nathan Burns
  Older reliever who has also dealt with injury, wildness, and AA ball issues (9 walks against 4 K and 11 hits in 5.2 AA innings). Clock's a ticking...

The 20th round pick, Marcelo Perez, did not sign. He was selected in the 11th round the following year by Seattle, and has a 3.68 ERA in 10 GS/44 IP for Seattle's A-level club, with solid numbers across the board.

Good picks: 5/19
Mixed/decent picks: 5/19
'Bad' picks: 9/19

Overall this still grades out as a pretty good draft to date, even with Bachman maybe not being the 'best' first-rounder, given how Silseth and Albright have developed. Any draft that lands you 4-5 viable pitching prospects (Bachman, Silseth, Bush, Alright, a combo of Murphy/Erla) in just two years time later has to be seen as successful, even if the other 15 arms selected are starting to wobble. Drafting a bunch of college relievers has proved to be a little risky, as a fair number have had injury or lack of command stall their progress. The real measure of this draft's success likely comes in 2024; will any of the injured arms rebound into MLB depth? Will Erla, Muprhy, or Albright step forward? Will Bush push into the bigs? Are Silseth and Bachman going to cut it as above-average arms, and if so, will they ever stick in the rotation? 

Note that I intentionally did not consider international signees or UDFA like Kenyon Yovan.

Thank you, Good read.

[Second Base]

In the simplest terms, because those are the best terms.... The Angels are better at drafting than they have been in over a decade. But not development. And in terms of international presence, they still aren't generally near the top but they also aren't obviously at the bottom like they were for a solid 15 years.

The farm system overall, had it not been for extremely fast promotions of guys like Schanuel, Neto, O'Hoppe, Bachman, Silseth, as well as recent trades, would likely be middle of the pack. 

But as it stands, they promote aggressively and they traded away since guys. So they're at the bottom. 

[Angelsfan1984]

So at the bottom but producing major leaguers? All these top rated prospects from other teams just flaming out left and right. Yet they hold more value

[greginpsca]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

I posted this about the 20-pitcher draft back in July in the minor league threads…

One year later...how does everyone feel? 
My very rough assessment...good, okay, and 'bad'.

• 1st: Sam Bachman 
  It's a plus that he's reached the bigs quickly and looked solid, but I'm still personally a little iffy on this pick, and his recent IL stint with shoulder inflammation doesn't ease that. He feels like a good reliever who will be prone to injuries and wildness, and seeing Matt McClain and Gavin Williams producing well in the bigs now too (hindsight will ring true with any draft, I know) I can't help but be a little disappointed here. Still, he's a good, young arm and he's in the bigs, and perhaps more importantly, his underslot deal allowed the Angels to sign Albright and Silseth.
   
• 2nd: Ky Bush
  2023 has been a letdown - 8.28 ERA in 7 starts, but only 25 IP, and he's been fairly hittable and wild in the minors, but still enough promise there to be a good pick. Andrew Abbott, drafted after Bush by the Reds, is sporting a 2.45 ERA in ~48 IP in the bigs so far, and a handsome WHIP of 1.00. Cincy did well drafting McClain and Abbott. 
   
• 3rd: Landon Marceaux
  Marceaux was turned into one-half of Eduardo Escobar. Kind of a bummer, and maybe not the best value from a 3rd round arm - especially since it also cost another good arm on top of it.
   
• 4th: Luke Murphy
  Vandy reliever looked great his first two seasons on the farm, but has had a really rough year for Rocket City (5.97 ERA, 36 hits, 19 BB in 28.2 IP). I'll credit some of the blame to the doctored balls they're using, but still a little worrisome here. He was sort of anticipated to figure into the Halos bullpen pretty quick and he's stalled somewhat. 
   
• 5th: Brett Kerry
  Sort of just feels like an org arm. Decent 4.28 ERA and solid numbers in AA. 
   
• 6th: Jake Smith
  Has stalled out with three years now in Tri-City, the most recent being ugly - 35 hits and 33 runs and 22 walks allowed, in only 23 IP.
   
• 7th: Ryan Costieu
  Might not be too surprising to hear that after conversion to pseudo-starting last year, despite a pure relief profile, Costieu has wound up missing all of 2023 with an elbow injury before the season even started. Still, he was effective before (3.45 WRA, 112 K and only 25 BB in 86 IP), and presuming this is just a regular TJS, he's still a potential factor down the line.
   
• 8th: Nick Jones
  A big ol' 6'6" lefty, Jones has pitched well since being drafted, and has harnessed his control in '23, while posting big K numbers and limiting hits (24 hits, 44 K, 10 BB in 34.2 IP) and seeing as how he's now in AA, could be in Anaheim as soon as this year, tbh. 
   
• 9th: Braden Olthoff
  Grading him a little tough here...he's missed the entire '23 season so far with an undisclosed injury, and his '21 and '22 campaigns were just sort of okay at best. Average numbers across the board, likely an org arm coupled with injury.
   
• 10th: Andrew Peters
  Currently injured, has only pitched 3 IP in '23, and only 17.2 IP since being drafted, about half of those in Rookie Ball. At 24, this isn't looking too great. 
   
• 11th: Chase Silseth
  Pretty great pick here, and like mentioned earlier, one that balances out any of the iffiness about Bachman in the first given the slot money context. Even if he tops out as a reliever, the quick ascent, solid results to date, and intriguing stuff make this a great pick.
   
• 12th: Mason Albright
  One of my favorite picks in the draft, Albright has rebounded after an ugly '22 to post a '23 to start dreaming on. Two years younger than his A-ball competition, Albright has a 4.02 ERA across 66.2 IP in 13 G/12 GS, showing strong command with 19 BB to 72 K. I feel like there's a decent MLB SP here. 
   
• 13th: Mo Hanley
  Talented and an exciting pick at the time, even though it was known he'd be out with TJS. Only managed one appearance (not a good one at that) before going back on the IL. Turns 24 today, so, not promising.
   
• 14th: Eric Torres
  I have to assume Torres is one of the pitchers who has suffered from the pre-tacked AA balls. An electric '22 (23 BB, 81 K, 2.29 ERA in 51 IP) has dramatically reversed in '23, with more walks (28) than IP (22) and an ERA over 9.00. The strong strikeout rate has maintained. 
   
• 15th: Glenn Albanese
  Already had one TJS before draft, and has missed all of '23 with injury. Pitched well, but not well enough to shake what has to be emerging long-term health question marks.
   
• 16th: Brandon Dufault
  Another AA reliever whose control has vanished, with 19 BB and 19 K in 20.2 IP. Now on the 60-day IL as of early July. Still some long-term relief potential, but will be 25 in '24 with a career ERA of 5.06 in the minors if he doesn't return this season, which seems unlikely.
   
• 17th: Mason Erla
  Has had a pretty bad '23; lots of walks, lots of hits, lots of earned runs, no dominant K numbers, but the org has promoted him aggressively and he has a decent track record, plus a solid spring showing. Currently injured, but still promise here.
   
• 18th: Nick Mondak
  Has yet to break past A+ ball with a ERA above 5. Org arm.
   
• 19th: Nathan Burns
  Older reliever who has also dealt with injury, wildness, and AA ball issues (9 walks against 4 K and 11 hits in 5.2 AA innings). Clock's a ticking...

The 20th round pick, Marcelo Perez, did not sign. He was selected in the 11th round the following year by Seattle, and has a 3.68 ERA in 10 GS/44 IP for Seattle's A-level club, with solid numbers across the board.

Good picks: 5/19
Mixed/decent picks: 5/19
'Bad' picks: 9/19

Overall this still grades out as a pretty good draft to date, even with Bachman maybe not being the 'best' first-rounder, given how Silseth and Albright have developed. Any draft that lands you 4-5 viable pitching prospects (Bachman, Silseth, Bush, Alright, a combo of Murphy/Erla) in just two years time later has to be seen as successful, even if the other 15 arms selected are starting to wobble. Drafting a bunch of college relievers has proved to be a little risky, as a fair number have had injury or lack of command stall their progress. The real measure of this draft's success likely comes in 2024; will any of the injured arms rebound into MLB depth? Will Erla, Muprhy, or Albright step forward? Will Bush push into the bigs? Are Silseth and Bachman going to cut it as above-average arms, and if so, will they ever stick in the rotation? 

Note that I intentionally did not consider international signees or UDFA like Kenyon Yovan.

Braden Olthoff retired during this past season. Career ending shoulder injury.

[totdprods]

11 hours ago, greginpsca said:

Braden Olthoff retired during this past season. Career ending shoulder injury.

Yeah, I wrote that before then…kind of wild, I ran into his parents in Lahaina the day before it burned down, he retired not long after. 

2024 is a big year for that draft class. 2023 was rough for most.

[Slegnaac]

Will they be using the pre-tack balls in AA in 2024?

[JVel17]

Received a reply message from Jeff Fletcher.  Jeff is not aware of any changes (since part III of last year's OC Register article) as pertaining to Angels' priorities relating to player development.

This seems like good news as there were positive developments that Jeff reported a year ago about the organization's priorities related to player development.

[Second Base]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:19 PM, Angelsfan1984 said:

So at the bottom but producing major leaguers? All these top rated prospects from other teams just flaming out left and right. Yet they hold more value

Very much so! That's why it's important to keep in mind that top prospect lists are a snap shot in time. They aren't a guarantee of success at all. MLB.com just released their top draft prospects for next year. That list is going to change a lot, but even if it didn't, it's still justifiable. Just as an example, the year Mike Trout was drafted, Stephen Strasburg went 1-1 and that was completely justified, at the time. Strasburg to this day is still the greatest collegiate pitcher of all time. 

A top prospect list with 10 elite kids at age 19 in A Ball, may have less value than the one that three solid rookie major leaguers. It depends on what the organizational needs are. 

And even then, rankings themselves show an inherent bias. Some guys rate the 24 year old in AAA higher than the 19 year old in A Ball. The 19 year old probably has a much higher ceiling but the 24 year old is much more likely to contribute in the big leagues. 

And vice versa. 

And some guys won't even bother putting relievers in their top prospect lists. So some guy like Ben Joyce holds no more value than a 33 year o lol d Tayron Guerrero. Whereas someone else might put Joyce at the top of their list because he major league ready and throws the ball 102+ with consistency. 

[Angelsfan1984]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Very much so! That's why it's important to keep in mind that top prospect lists are a snap shot in time. They aren't a guarantee of success at all. MLB.com just released their top draft prospects for next year. That list is going to change a lot, but even if it didn't, it's still justifiable. Just as an example, the year Mike Trout was drafted, Stephen Strasburg went 1-1 and that was completely justified, at the time. Strasburg to this day is still the greatest collegiate pitcher of all time. 

A top prospect list with 10 elite kids at age 19 in A Ball, may have less value than the one that three solid rookie major leaguers. It depends on what the organizational needs are. 

And even then, rankings themselves show an inherent bias. Some guys rate the 24 year old in AAA higher than the 19 year old in A Ball. The 19 year old probably has a much higher ceiling but the 24 year old is much more likely to contribute in the big leagues. 

And vice versa. 

And some guys won't even bother putting relievers in their top prospect lists. So some guy like Ben Joyce holds no more value than a 33 year o lol d Tayron Guerrero. Whereas someone else might put Joyce at the top of their list because he major league ready and throws the ball 102+ with consistency. 

That’s the part that makes the “currency” of a prospect so dumb and the fact that the angels are consistently at the bottom and the dodgers are at the top, meanwhile they are both producing major leaguers. Dodgers have 84000 scouts and the angels have 6 but both producing so what gives? 

[totdprods]

The farm would be viewed much differently if Bachman, Neto, Joyce, Schanuel, O’Hoppe, and Silseth all weren’t called into big league duty already. And what success they’ve shown is extremely promising and admirable. 

I still am a hair critical of Perry’s drafting because, aside from those guys ascending quickly and not looking like garbage, the rest of the picks have been pretty mediocre, if not straight up bad. 

It’s easy to point at the successes that first batch of names have produced so far - but with all the hope they’re showing, they’re still very unproven as a whole and should they not meeting what are increasingly exceedingly high expectations, Perry’s perceived drafting strength could come crashing down in a hurry. 

Personally I’m trying to temper 2024 expectations for that first group of names. I’m not expecting above-average results, just hoping all produce at a league average at a minimum. Baby steps. They’re young and early in their careers. And ideally we are a few sleeper picks start to emerge this season. It’d reflect really well if a couple guys like Flint, Murphy, Rios, Wimmer, Redfield, Dana took a huge step forward and the rest of the filler guys just produced strong seasons, even if they never scratch the bigs. 

[Angelsfan1984]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The farm would be viewed much differently if Bachman, Neto, Joyce, Schanuel, O’Hoppe, and Silseth all weren’t called into big league duty already. And what success they’ve shown is extremely promising and admirable. 

I still am a hair critical of Perry’s drafting because, aside from those guys ascending quickly and not looking like garbage, the rest of the picks have been pretty mediocre, if not straight up bad. 

It’s easy to point at the successes that first batch of names have produced so far - but with all the hope they’re showing, they’re still very unproven as a whole and should they not meeting what are increasingly exceedingly high expectations, Perry’s perceived drafting strength could come crashing down in a hurry. 

Personally I’m trying to temper 2024 expectations for that first group of names. I’m not expecting above-average results, just hoping all produce at a league average at a minimum. Baby steps. They’re young and early in their careers. And ideally we are a few sleeper picks start to emerge this season. It’d reflect really well if a couple guys like Flint, Murphy, Rios, Wimmer, Redfield, Dana took a huge step forward and the rest of the filler guys just produced strong seasons, even if they never scratch the bigs. 

Again I’m not even attempting to come across as a prospect guru but isn’t the goal to realistically get 1-2 major leaguers from a draft? I won’t count ohoppe since he was traded for, but wouldn’t 5 guys so far in the bigs and having moderate success be seen as a major plus? 

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Again I’m not even attempting to come across as a prospect guru but isn’t the goal to realistically get 1-2 major leaguers from a draft? I won’t count ohoppe since he was traded for, but wouldn’t 5 guys so far in the bigs and having moderate success be seen as a major plus? 

Yes and no. I think a goal is also to develop enough depth each draft that those guys are useful trade bait, and to a degree, play well enough to at least support winning minor league ballclubs even if those guys never touch the bigs. Is that an expectation or a top line goal? No. That’s a cherry on top. it’s just an interesting farm that I haven’t seen in my 25 or so years of following the Angels, or baseball in general. I haven’t really seen a minor league produce so many decent looking MLBers in lightning speed - while also having almost every other guy flame out really quickly. Usually there’s some career minor leaguers and sleepers who emerge and Perry’s drafts haven’t really produced that.

Also, as excited as I am about these youngsters that have already reached the bigs, they definitely don’t have a track record long enough to have proven themselves as legitimate everyday MLBers yet. That could change in a heartbeat, and I hope it does, but these guys are super green still and saying they’ve already produced MLBers from these drafts is more of a technicality than a fact - so far. Again, I hope that is proven otherwise this year. 

[totdprods]

I guess a simpler way of saying it is that it’s a very boom and very bust draft history so far - and if our booms don’t turn into every day MLBers, those drafts look real bad, real fast, and aside from Detmers we haven’t had anyone really prove themselves yet. YET. Neto is close. I wouldn’t be surprise if Joyce or Bachman flame out from injury before they every amount to much, but certainly hope I’m wrong. Just recognizing there is a lot of risk still across all the guys that have “made it” already, and the door is closing fast on the remaining 2021 draft guys to make that leap.

Edited December 20, 2023 by totdprods