ESPN: Why Shohei Ohtani is poised to become MLB's first $500M man

[jsnpritchett]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/35439378/why-shohei-ohtani-poised-become-mlb-first-500m-man

Some excerpts:

"And guessing Ohtani's potential free agent contract has evolved into a fun game throughout his sport. A sampling from those we asked:

• A former player and current analyst predicted a new record for average annual value, somewhere between $45 million and $50 million, stretched out over eight years.

• An agent -- not his own -- guessed a 10-year, $430 million contract, which would top the $40 million average annual value that Aaron Judge recently attained and also surpass Mike Trout's record-setting guarantee of $426.5 million.

• A rival executive, noting the inordinate number of long-term deals handed out this offseason, took it even further, speculating a 12-year, $480 million mega-contract.

And yet some believe those estimations might fall short, suggesting that if Ohtani continues on his current path and puts together another historic season as both a pitcher and a hitter, an unprecedented, recently unimaginable round number might not just be attainable but perhaps even likely."

....

"A major Japanese broadcasting corporation, NHK, televises the vast majority of Ohtani's games in Japan and has four of its cameras permanently set up at Angel Stadium. NHK's rights deal is negotiated through Major League Baseball's international arm, which means the revenue gets split evenly among the 30 teams. But the Angels individually draw plenty of direct revenue from Ohtani, having signed a multitude of six-figure endorsement deals with Japanese brands since his first season in 2018 and continually benefiting from the popularity around his giveaways, a reality for any team that employs him.

The Angels had seven Ohtani-related promotions this past season. For their five major ones -- three bobbleheads, a cap and, yes, a snow globe -- they averaged more than 41,000 fans, with several thousands of them often waiting hours outside their ballpark for gates to open. The average was less than 30,000 for the 76 other home games. The exact figure is not known -- and the Angels won't provide one -- but Ohtani is said to annually generate somewhere in the low tens of millions of dollars in additional revenue for the team, a major reason he hasn't been traded in the lead-up to his free agency."

 

[TheLordofOuts]

I’m hoping this contract will be paid by an Angel owner

[Erstad Grit]

I think 600

[Angel Oracle]

Either 10 years/$450 million

Or 11 years/$500 million

[beatlesrule]

I have stated this before but I just don't understand this way of thinking. Ohtani is not going to be able to sustain 2 positions at an elite level for the next 8 years or whatever. I'll be surprised if he's still an All Star 2 way player in 3 years. He is not worth 50 million a year for 8 years.

[tdawg87]

21 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I have stated this before but I just don't understand this way of thinking. Ohtani is not going to be able to sustain 2 positions at an elite level for the next 8 years or whatever. I'll be surprised if he's still an All Star 2 way player in 3 years. He is not worth 50 million a year for 8 years.

Yes, as evidenced by the many two-way star players who have come before him.

[Taylor]

24 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I have stated this before but I just don't understand this way of thinking. Ohtani is not going to be able to sustain 2 positions at an elite level for the next 8 years or whatever. I'll be surprised if he's still an All Star 2 way player in 3 years. He is not worth 50 million a year for 8 years.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

I have stated this before but I just don't understand this way of thinking. Ohtani is not going to be able to sustain 2 positions at an elite level for the next 8 years or whatever. I'll be surprised if he's still an All Star 2 way player in 3 years. He is not worth 50 million a year for 8 years.

1. Someone will pay him that much.

2. Ownership can afford it.

3. As noted in the article, he provides a lot of off-field value - potentially as much as $100m.

4. Our window isn't ten years from now, it's the next few years before Trout and Rendon* have little potential to provide much value. At 5+ years, those two are likely to already be albatross contracts.

5. Overpays are necessary to win.

6. See #2.

QED.

[Duren, Duren]

Media people are just beginning to really dig into this story. This article represents what most want. Ohtani having a great year, no in season extension and the Angels floundering. 

It's all about clicks, views,viewership. Which will be the main objective if things play out as I just conjectured. 

But baseball wise, it's a real franchise dilemma. Even assuming that the term and numbers of any extension offer  are equal or better than other offers, the ball is in Ohtani's court. 

Simply put, he will have total control of where he wants to go. What are his priorities? From what we can tell from past comments, it's about winning and maximizing his own potential. Things like location, weather, overall comfort, loyalty and so on are probably important too. But after half a dozen years he is more savvy and informed than he was when he came to the majors. 

My own pure guess is that he will move on. He has given the Angels enough time without coming close to even a single wild card appearance. They may get better and challenge, but won't be amongst the elite. He can study rosters, coaching and front office personnel and pick a more obvious destination for instant team success. 

For his own trajectory he would have to be on the same page with whatever managerial philosophy he feels most comfortable with. Rotational setup, place in the batting order, more or less expectations for aggression on the base paths and so on. Obviously the roster around him factors in. 

But the media hype almost automatically assumes he won't extend. I suppose that sometime before the trade deadline he will respect the team and let them know how he is leaning. That then opens up a potential  trade dynamic. Which is another subject unto itself. 

All this also assumes he is healthy and has a great year in the making by then. Otherwise, a lot changes. 

I hate these free agent/contract stories. I usually hibernate through the  off-season, read books on baseball history and wait for spring training to see what the roster looks like. But the Ohtani story is just too  important to not keep informed about.

 

[Pancake Bear]

7 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Media people are just beginning to really dig into this story. This article represents what most want. Ohtani having a great year, no in season extension and the Angels floundering. 

"Ohtani signs an extension with the Angels" is not a story that draws clicks. But, the best player in baseball is potentially a free agent next season and looks primed to sign the highest guaranteed contract ever? That'll sell. And any competitive team's fans (and some that hope their team will be competitive) gets excited about the possibility. Simple as that.

9 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

My own pure guess is that he will move on. He has given the Angels enough time without coming close to even a single wild card appearance. They may get better and challenge, but won't be amongst the elite. He can study rosters, coaching and front office personnel and pick a more obvious destination for instant team success. 

Disagree.

First, I'd argue only a handful of teams could sign him and remain competitive because of the amount of payroll space he'll take. Any team that is currently complaining about spending or nickle and diming things is unlikely. Of the teams that can afford it, unless Ohtani changes his mind about playing in the east (people really ignore the fact that he already was very clear in 2017 that he had no interest in playing back east), it really comes down to just the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. The Dodgers and Padres are good right now, the Giants aren't any better than the Angels at the moment, and arguably worse.

But that is all leaving aside two issues: One is that Ohtani could have waited longer to come over to begin with and signed a huge contract then. Two is that he could have signed with a team that was already good then. He didn't do either of those things. Which suggests that maxing out money, or playing for a big name team like the Dodgers, or being with whoever was the best team last year are not deciding factors for him.

Personally, I see Ohtani as a guy who, if the money is there and the team is committed to competing, would prefer to stay. Word is he wants to wait to see who new ownership is (presumably to see if they are committed to winning) before negotiating a potential extension. Unless the new owners are fools, he'll be locked up before he hits the open market.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

I have stated this before but I just don't understand this way of thinking. Ohtani is not going to be able to sustain 2 positions at an elite level for the next 8 years or whatever. I'll be surprised if he's still an All Star 2 way player in 3 years. He is not worth 50 million a year for 8 years.

The older everyone gets the more they slow down so you aren't wrong here. He may not be worth that much money but that's what the Angels will have to pay if they want him on their team. 

[mrwicked]

The games I went to this year, there was a sh*t ton of Japanese fans. Which is great for the team/sport.
He brings in big $$ to the club.

[cals]

52 minutes ago, mrwicked said:

The games I went to this year, there was a sh*t ton of Japanese fans. Which is great for the team/sport.
He brings in big $$ to the club.

True, but it also made driving in the parking lot much more dangerous.

[TempeAngel]

8 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

"A major Japanese broadcasting corporation, NHK, televises the vast majority of Ohtani's games in Japan and has four of its cameras permanently set up at Angel Stadium. NHK's rights deal is negotiated through Major League Baseball's international arm, which means the revenue gets split evenly among the 30 teams.

There should be a work around on this...

[AngelsMetsWS]

I’m really glad I got the snow globe. 

[IheartLA]

Ohtani is an elite pitcher like Degrom, Verlander, Scherzer. Even if his hitting becomes replacement level by 36-37 then he becomes just an ace, and those guys get paid $$ even if they’re barely pitching/injured for a bunch of years which is worst case scenario for Shohei.

Aces get paid into their 40s. Also take into account inflation. If Verlander and Scherzer are getting $43M in 2023 by the time 2032 comes around and Ohtani is only a pitcher, $55M in ten years time will be less than what Scherzer is getting now in present value.

I think Ohtani gets $600M+ over 12 years from the Mets. He will have multiple $500M+ deals from the Giants, Mariners, Angels and maybe the Dodgers.

[Stradling]

The thing people are doing is taking what premiere pitchers are getting on 2-3 year deals and assuming a team will do that for 10-12 years. Or they are saying he’s a top ten hitter so those guys get $30 million. But he’s essentially a DH and those guys are getting $30 million for 10-12 years.
I think if he gets $500 million it’s over 12-14 years. So $36-42 million a season. 

[Jay]

The only thing Ohtani needs to worry about is staying healthy. If he can do that for one more year he'll write his own ticket to the MLB team of his choice.

[Swordsman78]

Ohtani will stay with the Halos if the team makes the playoffs in 2023, which they will.

The alternative is missing the playoffs in '23, gutting the team/payroll and going into a complete rebuild.

[James]

Could Ohtani be the first contract that includes a percentage of ownership? Not sure if that kind of deal would get approved but if he cares about winning, he probably shouldnt take 50 million of a teams payroll and really expect a complete team year in and year out. There are a few teams that may be able to do it but this type of percentage of the total team payroll tied to one player will lead to a lack of depth for a team. If I were him, I would want my agents to explore this type of contract and its feasibility. 

[jsnpritchett]

40 minutes ago, James said:

Could Ohtani be the first contract that includes a percentage of ownership? Not sure if that kind of deal would get approved but if he cares about winning, he probably shouldnt take 50 million of a teams payroll and really expect a complete team year in and year out. There are a few teams that may be able to do it but this type of percentage of the total team payroll tied to one player will lead to a lack of depth for a team. If I were him, I would want my agents to explore this type of contract and its feasibility. 

This isn't allowed, unless the commissioner gives permission to do it.  I can't see any reason why the commissioner would grant an exception for Ohtani.

[James]

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

This isn't allowed, unless the commissioner gives permission to do it.  I can't see any reason why the commissioner would grant an exception for Ohtani.

There are many reasons why these type of deals may be in the cards in the future, why not have the first being Ohtani? If anyone could put such a case together, it seems he would be the ideal person to attempt such a contract. With that said, I doubt it would happen but it would be something worth looking at if I were him. I know there were talks about this with the Cards and Pujols years ago with the Cards looking into it. 

[tdawg87]

With Ohtani you can basically throw all expectations out the window. He's an unprecedented talent, and one that MLB will love to market. 

[jsnpritchett]

29 minutes ago, James said:

There are many reasons why these type of deals may be in the cards in the future, why not have the first being Ohtani? If anyone could put such a case together, it seems he would be the ideal person to attempt such a contract. With that said, I doubt it would happen but it would be something worth looking at if I were him. I know there were talks about this with the Cards and Pujols years ago with the Cards looking into it. 

Is it theoretically possible? Sure.  But I just can't imagine they'd want to start down that road with active players. Too many questions.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

With Ohtani you can basically throw all expectations out the window. He's an unprecedented talent, and one that MLB will love to market. 

He can make commercials with really bad overdubbing.