The 2022 Outfield: and a template for a "four-man outfield"

[Angelsjunky]

I mentioned this in some thread a few days ago, but thought it was worth starting its own and explicating it further.

It seems we're (probably) finally at the time we've known would come for a couple years: Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell are basically ready (or very, very close), and Justin Upton is still around and quite expensive. 

Some suggest trying to trade Upton, although then it has to be considered how much of his $28M would the Angels have to pay in a trade, and at the point a trade becomes feasible, is it worth it?

Upton still has value. While he hasn't found his pre-injury form, he's still at 1.0 WAR and a 109 wRC+ through 74 games, which makes him a solid regular. Chances are he'll get hot again and probably surpass 2 WAR and 110 wRC+ in ~125 games played. Also, from everything I've heard, he's a nice guy, friends with Trout, and a good veteran to have around with a team trending younger.

Furthermore, while I have little doubt that both Marsh and Adell will have good careers, the near future is less certain. Marsh is still struggling to adjust to the majors and Adell has played all of one (awesome) game in his "comeback." Some bumps should be expected.

The point being, unless another team really wants Upton and will take most of his contract and/or offer something useful in return, it may be that the timing is actually working out quite well, and we'll all be happy to have him around next year.

Projected Playing Time in 2022

The point of this thread is to present a scenario where all four outfielders--those three plus Mike Trout--receive plenty of playing time next year, in a kind of "mega-platoon" rather than the traditional "three regulars + one 4th outfielder" that most teams go with. Consider:

162 x 3 = 486 outfield starts 

486 / 4 = 121.5 starts for four players (on average)

Meaning, in the unlikely case that all four play equally next year, they can still all get 75% of a full season, and that doesn't even include DH starts, pinch-hitting, and defensive replacements.

Now obviously you want Mike Trout starting more than 75% of the team's games. But consider the following:

2017-21 Angels games: 653 games

2017-21 Trout games played: 477 games (73%)

2017-21 Trout games in outfield: 433 games (66%)

Meaning, Trout has actually played in less than 75% of the Angels games over the last five seasons, and in those 477 games has DHed 34 times, or about 7% of the time (that's 1 out of every 14 games).

Now while Trout seems to have a penchant for injury these days, consider that most of those missing games were in 2017 and 21. From 2018-20 he played in 327 of 384 games, or 85%. That might be a more realistic expectation going forward, or at least one that doesn't assume the worst.

85% of 162 is 138. Let's round up and say that we can pencil Trout in for 140 games next year, about 10 of which will be DH starts or pinch-hits, so 130 starts in the outfield. Even as the player expected/hoped to play the most games in the outfield next year, we're talking about 130 starts - not far above the average for four players.

But let's also consider the best case scenario, that Trout is healthy next year, and provide a range: 130-140 starts. That leaves us with 346-356 starts for the other three, or an average of 115-118 per player.

Now let's look at Upton, and assume that he is next likely to receive as much playing time as possible, both due to being a Proven Veteran and because his floor is probably higher than Marsh and Adell, at least in 2022. In his four full seasons as an Angel he's played 324 of 491 games, or 66%. Meaning, Upton has also been prone to injury, although most of that due to missing 99 games in 2019. Over the last two seasons he's played 116 (112 in the OF) of 167 games, or 69% (67% in outfield). Let's be bullish and round up and project that he'll start 70% of games next year, which is 113. Let's also provide a range and say 105-120 outfield starts for Upton.

So, 130-140 starts for Trout, and 105-120 for Upton, or 235-260 for both. That leaves us with 226-251 starts to be filled in the outfield, or an average of 113-125 for both Marsh and Adell.

All of this is conjecture. We don't know how healthy Trout or Upton will be, or how they'll perform. Trout should be Trout, but Upton is in a bit of danger of losing playing time to Marsh and/or Adell based upon performance. But the point is, even if he plays reasonably well and is mostly healthy (aside from the usual bumps and bruises and one or two short IL stints that should be expected for him), there are still plenty of starts left to justify keeping both Adell and Marsh on the major league roster.

Now they could let Marsh and Adell duel it out for the remaining 55 games and give the better performer the fast-track to a starting gig, with the loser returning to Salt Lake next year to wait for the inevitable injury-induced opportunity, and then go with Ward as the 4th outfielder or sign another Lagares-type. 

But my question is, why bother? First of all, Marsh is a better defender than Ward, so one could argue that he is better suited for 4th outfielder duties, even if he doesn't get a chance to start that frequently. Secondly, is it better for Marsh or Adell to get regular AAA playing time, or part-time (half, at least, even in the case of a more traditional 4th outfielder role) in the majors? And thirdly, in the scenario that I outlined, that even with a relatively healthy Trout/Upton, the Angels will still need up to about 250 starts covered in the outfield, we're not talking about a lot of extra playing time in the minors, if those starts are distributed evenly between Marsh and Adell.

So my suggestion is that the Angels plan for a four-man outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell. They don't need to trade Upton, and in fact are a better team for keeping him around, at least in 2022. Marsh and Adell will get plenty of playing time, given the fact that even if 100% healthy, Trout won't start more than 140 games, and Upton probably not more than 130. So even in that unlikely case, we're talking 54 starts when they sit, plus 162 for the third spot - that's 216, or 113 each. Meaning, that represents the fewest possible starts that will be available, given the unlikelihood of a perfectly healthy and performing Trout and Upton.

Putting it All Together

How would this look? I'll broaden the range a bit from the above, to include the likelihood of minor to moderate injury and/or variable degrees of performance, but with the (probably wishful) assumption that none of the four will experience major injuries. Meaning, this is how the Angels could pencil them at the start of the year.
 

2022 Outfield Starts

Key: Projected outfield starts (Overall Games Played, including DH, PH, and defensive replacements) ~ median expected starts | games played

Mike Trout 120-140 (130-150 total) ~ 130 | 140

Justin Upton 110-130 (115-135 total) ~ 120 | 125

Brandon Marsh 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Jo Adell 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Now, chances are it won't even out so perfectly. Maybe one of them loses substantial time to injury, or maybe one under-performs. But the point being, even going with that basic template of a "four man outfield," all four of them should get plenty of time, at least 75% of a full season, and for one or two fo them, possibly more.

If I'm the Angels, assuming nothing unexpected occurs between now and then, that's how I'd pencil in the outfield roster on Opening Day of 2022.

 

[WicketMaiden]

Any chance of a TLDR AJ? Some of us are (pretending to be) busy people. Thanks chap.

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Any chance of a TLDR AJ? Some of us are (pretending to be) busy people. Thanks chap.

There’s enough room for 4 OF due to probably injury risk, a few DH starts and the kids not needing to start every game to be effective.

[Torridd]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I mentioned this in some thread a few days ago, but thought it was worth starting its own and explicating it further.

It seems we're (probably) finally at the time we've known would come for a couple years: Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell are basically ready (or very, very close), and Justin Upton is still around and quite expensive. 

Some suggest trying to trade Upton, although then it has to be considered how much of his $28M would the Angels have to pay in a trade, and at the point a trade becomes feasible, is it worth it?

Upton still has value. While he hasn't found his pre-injury form, he's still at 1.0 WAR and a 109 wRC+ through 74 games, which makes him a solid regular. Chances are he'll get hot again and probably surpass 2 WAR and 110 wRC+ in ~125 games played. Also, from everything I've heard, he's a nice guy, friends with Trout, and a good veteran to have around with a team trending younger.

Furthermore, while I have little doubt that both Marsh and Adell will have good careers, the near future is less certain. Marsh is still struggling to adjust to the majors and Adell has played all of one (awesome) game in his "comeback." Some bumps should be expected.

The point being, unless another team really wants Upton and will take most of his contract and/or offer something useful in return, it may be that the timing is actually working out quite well, and we'll all be happy to have him around next year.

Projected Playing Time in 2022

The point of this thread is to present a scenario where all four outfielders--those three plus Mike Trout--receive plenty of playing time next year, in a kind of "mega-platoon" rather than the traditional "three regulars + one 4th outfielder" that most teams go with. Consider:

162 x 3 = 486 outfield starts 

486 / 4 = 121.5 starts for four players (on average)

Meaning, in the unlikely case that all four play equally next year, they can still all get 75% of a full season, and that doesn't even include DH starts, pinch-hitting, and defensive replacements.

Now obviously you want Mike Trout starting more than 75% of the team's games. But consider the following:

2017-21 Angels games: 653 games

2017-21 Trout games played: 477 games (73%)

2017-21 Trout games in outfield: 433 games (66%)

Meaning, Trout has actually played in less than 75% of the Angels games over the last five seasons, and in those 477 games has DHed 34 times, or about 7% of the time (that's 1 out of every 14 games).

Now while Trout seems to have a penchant for injury these days, consider that most of those missing games were in 2017 and 21. From 2018-20 he played in 327 of 384 games, or 85%. That might be a more realistic expectation going forward, or at least one that doesn't assume the worst.

85% of 162 is 138. Let's round up and say that we can pencil Trout in for 140 games next year, about 10 of which will be DH starts or pinch-hits, so 130 starts in the outfield. Even as the player expected/hoped to play the most games in the outfield next year, we're talking about 130 starts - not far above the average for four players.

But let's also consider the best case scenario, that Trout is healthy next year, and provide a range: 130-140 starts. That leaves us with 346-356 starts for the other three, or an average of 115-118 per player.

Now let's look at Upton, and assume that he is next likely to receive as much playing time as possible, both due to being a Proven Veteran and because his floor is probably higher than Marsh and Adell, at least in 2022. In his four full seasons as an Angel he's played 324 of 491 games, or 66%. Meaning, Upton has also been prone to injury, although most of that due to missing 99 games in 2019. Over the last two seasons he's played 116 (112 in the OF) of 167 games, or 69% (67% in outfield). Let's be bullish and round up and project that he'll start 70% of games next year, which is 113. Let's also provide a range and say 105-120 outfield starts for Upton.

So, 130-140 starts for Trout, and 105-120 for Upton, or 235-260 for both. That leaves us with 226-251 starts to be filled in the outfield, or an average of 113-125 for both Marsh and Adell.

All of this is conjecture. We don't know how healthy Trout or Upton will be, or how they'll perform. Trout should be Trout, but Upton is in a bit of danger of losing playing time to Marsh and/or Adell based upon performance. But the point is, even if he plays reasonably well and is mostly healthy (aside from the usual bumps and bruises and one or two short IL stints that should be expected for him), there are still plenty of starts left to justify keeping both Adell and Marsh on the major league roster.

Now they could let Marsh and Adell duel it out for the remaining 55 games and give the better performer the fast-track to a starting gig, with the loser returning to Salt Lake next year to wait for the inevitable injury-induced opportunity, and then go with Ward as the 4th outfielder or sign another Lagares-type. 

But my question is, why bother? First of all, Marsh is a better defender than Ward, so one could argue that he is better suited for 4th outfielder duties, even if he doesn't get a chance to start that frequently. Secondly, is it better for Marsh or Adell to get regular AAA playing time, or part-time (half, at least, even in the case of a more traditional 4th outfielder role) in the majors? And thirdly, in the scenario that I outlined, that even with a relatively healthy Trout/Upton, the Angels will still need up to about 250 starts covered in the outfield, we're not talking about a lot of extra playing time in the minors, if those starts are distributed evenly between Marsh and Adell.

So my suggestion is that the Angels plan for a four-man outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell. They don't need to trade Upton, and in fact are a better team for keeping him around, at least in 2022. Marsh and Adell will get plenty of playing time, given the fact that even if 100% healthy, Trout won't start more than 140 games, and Upton probably not more than 130. So even in that unlikely case, we're talking 54 starts when they sit, plus 162 for the third spot - that's 216, or 113 each. Meaning, that represents the fewest possible starts that will be available, given the unlikelihood of a perfectly healthy and performing Trout and Upton.

Putting it All Together

How would this look? I'll broaden the range a bit from the above, to include the likelihood of minor to moderate injury and/or variable degrees of performance, but with the (probably wishful) assumption that none of the four will experience major injuries. Meaning, this is how the Angels could pencil them at the start of the year.
 

2022 Outfield Starts

Key: Projected outfield starts (Overall Games Played, including DH, PH, and defensive replacements) ~ median expected starts | games played

Mike Trout 120-140 (130-150 total) ~ 130 | 140

Justin Upton 110-130 (115-135 total) ~ 120 | 125

Brandon Marsh 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Jo Adell 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Now, chances are it won't even out so perfectly. Maybe one of them loses substantial time to injury, or maybe one under-performs. But the point being, even going with that basic template of a "four man outfield," all four of them should get plenty of time, at least 75% of a full season, and for one or two fo them, possibly more.

If I'm the Angels, assuming nothing unexpected occurs between now and then, that's how I'd pencil in the outfield roster on Opening Day of 2022.

 

Very well written and makes too much sense, barring health and productivity.

[angelsnationtalk]

I'm going honest, I think one reason why the Angels called up Marsh and Adell early is to allow other teams to take a look. 

It was rumored that the Angels and Marlins almost had a deal at the deadline involving Marsh and Meyer and I think a deal will be done in the offseason. 

2022 Outfield will be one of Adell/Marsh, Trout, Upton and someone else.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I think one of the kids is traded -- I'd expect the Angels to target a mid-tier outfielder on a short-term deal, with Ward as the #4 fall back guy.

[angelsnationtalk]

Re-sign Cobb then call the Marlins
Marah or Adell to headline a return on someone like Meyer, Alcantara, Sanchez or Lopez
or
a package of Adams and Canning for someone like Meyer or Cabrerea. 

Rotation depth like this: 
Cobb
Ohtani
Alcantara/Lopez/Meyer/Cabrera
Sandoval
Detmers
Rodriguez
Suarez
Bachman
Barria 

That's pretty damn solid and aside from Cobb, would cost next to noting. 

[Angelsjunky]

I hope you guys are wrong and they keep both Marsh and Adell. I don't know why you're so anxious to get rid of them. The Angels now have plenty of young starters, and really only "need" a free agent guy, be it Cobb or Stroman, to stabilize the rotation. Minasian will be focused on building a bullpen, and you don't trade away a Marsh or Adell for a reliever, no matter how good.

[T.G.]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I hope you guys are wrong and they keep both Marsh and Adell.

And there it is.

They're as good as gone now.

[Jeff Fletcher]

I think there’s a pretty significant chance that either Adell or Marsh are worse than Justin Upton next year. 

[Blarg]

Marsh has his defensive skills that won't diminish from game to game. His bat needs to wake the hell up in order to supplant anyone in the outfield. Adell will have to do the Dominican thing and hit his way onto the lineup card. His defense is his weakness. Upton is erratic at both. You never know if he is going to botch a play in the outfield or go 4-4 or 0-4, for ten games in a row. It's a coin toss as to which player is better than the other one. 

[Rumple]

I would rather trade one of our SP (Barria or Canning as an example) for a couple of RP's and keep both young outfielders. The lineup would be stacked when fit!

[Slegnaac]

On 8/4/2021 at 8:48 AM, Angelsjunky said:

I mentioned this in some thread a few days ago, but thought it was worth starting its own and explicating it further.

It seems we're (probably) finally at the time we've known would come for a couple years: Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell are basically ready (or very, very close), and Justin Upton is still around and quite expensive. 

Some suggest trying to trade Upton, although then it has to be considered how much of his $28M would the Angels have to pay in a trade, and at the point a trade becomes feasible, is it worth it?

Upton still has value. While he hasn't found his pre-injury form, he's still at 1.0 WAR and a 109 wRC+ through 74 games, which makes him a solid regular. Chances are he'll get hot again and probably surpass 2 WAR and 110 wRC+ in ~125 games played. Also, from everything I've heard, he's a nice guy, friends with Trout, and a good veteran to have around with a team trending younger.

Furthermore, while I have little doubt that both Marsh and Adell will have good careers, the near future is less certain. Marsh is still struggling to adjust to the majors and Adell has played all of one (awesome) game in his "comeback." Some bumps should be expected.

The point being, unless another team really wants Upton and will take most of his contract and/or offer something useful in return, it may be that the timing is actually working out quite well, and we'll all be happy to have him around next year.

Projected Playing Time in 2022

The point of this thread is to present a scenario where all four outfielders--those three plus Mike Trout--receive plenty of playing time next year, in a kind of "mega-platoon" rather than the traditional "three regulars + one 4th outfielder" that most teams go with. Consider:

162 x 3 = 486 outfield starts 

486 / 4 = 121.5 starts for four players (on average)

Meaning, in the unlikely case that all four play equally next year, they can still all get 75% of a full season, and that doesn't even include DH starts, pinch-hitting, and defensive replacements.

Now obviously you want Mike Trout starting more than 75% of the team's games. But consider the following:

2017-21 Angels games: 653 games

2017-21 Trout games played: 477 games (73%)

2017-21 Trout games in outfield: 433 games (66%)

Meaning, Trout has actually played in less than 75% of the Angels games over the last five seasons, and in those 477 games has DHed 34 times, or about 7% of the time (that's 1 out of every 14 games).

Now while Trout seems to have a penchant for injury these days, consider that most of those missing games were in 2017 and 21. From 2018-20 he played in 327 of 384 games, or 85%. That might be a more realistic expectation going forward, or at least one that doesn't assume the worst.

85% of 162 is 138. Let's round up and say that we can pencil Trout in for 140 games next year, about 10 of which will be DH starts or pinch-hits, so 130 starts in the outfield. Even as the player expected/hoped to play the most games in the outfield next year, we're talking about 130 starts - not far above the average for four players.

But let's also consider the best case scenario, that Trout is healthy next year, and provide a range: 130-140 starts. That leaves us with 346-356 starts for the other three, or an average of 115-118 per player.

Now let's look at Upton, and assume that he is next likely to receive as much playing time as possible, both due to being a Proven Veteran and because his floor is probably higher than Marsh and Adell, at least in 2022. In his four full seasons as an Angel he's played 324 of 491 games, or 66%. Meaning, Upton has also been prone to injury, although most of that due to missing 99 games in 2019. Over the last two seasons he's played 116 (112 in the OF) of 167 games, or 69% (67% in outfield). Let's be bullish and round up and project that he'll start 70% of games next year, which is 113. Let's also provide a range and say 105-120 outfield starts for Upton.

So, 130-140 starts for Trout, and 105-120 for Upton, or 235-260 for both. That leaves us with 226-251 starts to be filled in the outfield, or an average of 113-125 for both Marsh and Adell.

All of this is conjecture. We don't know how healthy Trout or Upton will be, or how they'll perform. Trout should be Trout, but Upton is in a bit of danger of losing playing time to Marsh and/or Adell based upon performance. But the point is, even if he plays reasonably well and is mostly healthy (aside from the usual bumps and bruises and one or two short IL stints that should be expected for him), there are still plenty of starts left to justify keeping both Adell and Marsh on the major league roster.

Now they could let Marsh and Adell duel it out for the remaining 55 games and give the better performer the fast-track to a starting gig, with the loser returning to Salt Lake next year to wait for the inevitable injury-induced opportunity, and then go with Ward as the 4th outfielder or sign another Lagares-type. 

But my question is, why bother? First of all, Marsh is a better defender than Ward, so one could argue that he is better suited for 4th outfielder duties, even if he doesn't get a chance to start that frequently. Secondly, is it better for Marsh or Adell to get regular AAA playing time, or part-time (half, at least, even in the case of a more traditional 4th outfielder role) in the majors? And thirdly, in the scenario that I outlined, that even with a relatively healthy Trout/Upton, the Angels will still need up to about 250 starts covered in the outfield, we're not talking about a lot of extra playing time in the minors, if those starts are distributed evenly between Marsh and Adell.

So my suggestion is that the Angels plan for a four-man outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell. They don't need to trade Upton, and in fact are a better team for keeping him around, at least in 2022. Marsh and Adell will get plenty of playing time, given the fact that even if 100% healthy, Trout won't start more than 140 games, and Upton probably not more than 130. So even in that unlikely case, we're talking 54 starts when they sit, plus 162 for the third spot - that's 216, or 113 each. Meaning, that represents the fewest possible starts that will be available, given the unlikelihood of a perfectly healthy and performing Trout and Upton.

Putting it All Together

How would this look? I'll broaden the range a bit from the above, to include the likelihood of minor to moderate injury and/or variable degrees of performance, but with the (probably wishful) assumption that none of the four will experience major injuries. Meaning, this is how the Angels could pencil them at the start of the year.
 

2022 Outfield Starts

Key: Projected outfield starts (Overall Games Played, including DH, PH, and defensive replacements) ~ median expected starts | games played

Mike Trout 120-140 (130-150 total) ~ 130 | 140

Justin Upton 110-130 (115-135 total) ~ 120 | 125

Brandon Marsh 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Jo Adell 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Now, chances are it won't even out so perfectly. Maybe one of them loses substantial time to injury, or maybe one under-performs. But the point being, even going with that basic template of a "four man outfield," all four of them should get plenty of time, at least 75% of a full season, and for one or two fo them, possibly more.

If I'm the Angels, assuming nothing unexpected occurs between now and then, that's how I'd pencil in the outfield roster on Opening Day of 2022.

 

Also of note is that AAA only plays 144 games.  So not much more than your projected distribution, assuming they played every game at AAA.

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 8/4/2021 at 8:48 AM, Angelsjunky said:

I mentioned this in some thread a few days ago, but thought it was worth starting its own and explicating it further.

It seems we're (probably) finally at the time we've known would come for a couple years: Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell are basically ready (or very, very close), and Justin Upton is still around and quite expensive. 

Some suggest trying to trade Upton, although then it has to be considered how much of his $28M would the Angels have to pay in a trade, and at the point a trade becomes feasible, is it worth it?

Upton still has value. While he hasn't found his pre-injury form, he's still at 1.0 WAR and a 109 wRC+ through 74 games, which makes him a solid regular. Chances are he'll get hot again and probably surpass 2 WAR and 110 wRC+ in ~125 games played. Also, from everything I've heard, he's a nice guy, friends with Trout, and a good veteran to have around with a team trending younger.

Furthermore, while I have little doubt that both Marsh and Adell will have good careers, the near future is less certain. Marsh is still struggling to adjust to the majors and Adell has played all of one (awesome) game in his "comeback." Some bumps should be expected.

The point being, unless another team really wants Upton and will take most of his contract and/or offer something useful in return, it may be that the timing is actually working out quite well, and we'll all be happy to have him around next year.

Projected Playing Time in 2022

The point of this thread is to present a scenario where all four outfielders--those three plus Mike Trout--receive plenty of playing time next year, in a kind of "mega-platoon" rather than the traditional "three regulars + one 4th outfielder" that most teams go with. Consider:

162 x 3 = 486 outfield starts 

486 / 4 = 121.5 starts for four players (on average)

Meaning, in the unlikely case that all four play equally next year, they can still all get 75% of a full season, and that doesn't even include DH starts, pinch-hitting, and defensive replacements.

Now obviously you want Mike Trout starting more than 75% of the team's games. But consider the following:

2017-21 Angels games: 653 games

2017-21 Trout games played: 477 games (73%)

2017-21 Trout games in outfield: 433 games (66%)

Meaning, Trout has actually played in less than 75% of the Angels games over the last five seasons, and in those 477 games has DHed 34 times, or about 7% of the time (that's 1 out of every 14 games).

Now while Trout seems to have a penchant for injury these days, consider that most of those missing games were in 2017 and 21. From 2018-20 he played in 327 of 384 games, or 85%. That might be a more realistic expectation going forward, or at least one that doesn't assume the worst.

85% of 162 is 138. Let's round up and say that we can pencil Trout in for 140 games next year, about 10 of which will be DH starts or pinch-hits, so 130 starts in the outfield. Even as the player expected/hoped to play the most games in the outfield next year, we're talking about 130 starts - not far above the average for four players.

But let's also consider the best case scenario, that Trout is healthy next year, and provide a range: 130-140 starts. That leaves us with 346-356 starts for the other three, or an average of 115-118 per player.

Now let's look at Upton, and assume that he is next likely to receive as much playing time as possible, both due to being a Proven Veteran and because his floor is probably higher than Marsh and Adell, at least in 2022. In his four full seasons as an Angel he's played 324 of 491 games, or 66%. Meaning, Upton has also been prone to injury, although most of that due to missing 99 games in 2019. Over the last two seasons he's played 116 (112 in the OF) of 167 games, or 69% (67% in outfield). Let's be bullish and round up and project that he'll start 70% of games next year, which is 113. Let's also provide a range and say 105-120 outfield starts for Upton.

So, 130-140 starts for Trout, and 105-120 for Upton, or 235-260 for both. That leaves us with 226-251 starts to be filled in the outfield, or an average of 113-125 for both Marsh and Adell.

All of this is conjecture. We don't know how healthy Trout or Upton will be, or how they'll perform. Trout should be Trout, but Upton is in a bit of danger of losing playing time to Marsh and/or Adell based upon performance. But the point is, even if he plays reasonably well and is mostly healthy (aside from the usual bumps and bruises and one or two short IL stints that should be expected for him), there are still plenty of starts left to justify keeping both Adell and Marsh on the major league roster.

Now they could let Marsh and Adell duel it out for the remaining 55 games and give the better performer the fast-track to a starting gig, with the loser returning to Salt Lake next year to wait for the inevitable injury-induced opportunity, and then go with Ward as the 4th outfielder or sign another Lagares-type. 

But my question is, why bother? First of all, Marsh is a better defender than Ward, so one could argue that he is better suited for 4th outfielder duties, even if he doesn't get a chance to start that frequently. Secondly, is it better for Marsh or Adell to get regular AAA playing time, or part-time (half, at least, even in the case of a more traditional 4th outfielder role) in the majors? And thirdly, in the scenario that I outlined, that even with a relatively healthy Trout/Upton, the Angels will still need up to about 250 starts covered in the outfield, we're not talking about a lot of extra playing time in the minors, if those starts are distributed evenly between Marsh and Adell.

So my suggestion is that the Angels plan for a four-man outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell. They don't need to trade Upton, and in fact are a better team for keeping him around, at least in 2022. Marsh and Adell will get plenty of playing time, given the fact that even if 100% healthy, Trout won't start more than 140 games, and Upton probably not more than 130. So even in that unlikely case, we're talking 54 starts when they sit, plus 162 for the third spot - that's 216, or 113 each. Meaning, that represents the fewest possible starts that will be available, given the unlikelihood of a perfectly healthy and performing Trout and Upton.

Putting it All Together

How would this look? I'll broaden the range a bit from the above, to include the likelihood of minor to moderate injury and/or variable degrees of performance, but with the (probably wishful) assumption that none of the four will experience major injuries. Meaning, this is how the Angels could pencil them at the start of the year.
 

2022 Outfield Starts

Key: Projected outfield starts (Overall Games Played, including DH, PH, and defensive replacements) ~ median expected starts | games played

Mike Trout 120-140 (130-150 total) ~ 130 | 140

Justin Upton 110-130 (115-135 total) ~ 120 | 125

Brandon Marsh 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Jo Adell 100-130 (110-140 total) ~ 118 | 125

Now, chances are it won't even out so perfectly. Maybe one of them loses substantial time to injury, or maybe one under-performs. But the point being, even going with that basic template of a "four man outfield," all four of them should get plenty of time, at least 75% of a full season, and for one or two fo them, possibly more.

If I'm the Angels, assuming nothing unexpected occurs between now and then, that's how I'd pencil in the outfield roster on Opening Day of 2022.

 

Obviously a lot will change between today and next season, but as of right now I'd probably project an Upton, Trout, Adell outfield, with Marsh in AAA ready to be called up to play every day if Trout gets hurt. The team could keep Ward on the roster as a backup OF/INF/C or debate between signing a cheap backup CF like Lagares or an offensive oriented corner backup with Adell playing CF when they give Trout a night off.

Obviously all of that is contingent on how this season plays out. Marsh will need to hit a whole lot more to stay on the roster with a healthy Trout around. 

[HanfordGuy]

I thought this thread was going to be about outfield shifts not math. Now I got to lie down.