The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, #WeNasty said:

Haha.  Ok.  I forgot all great minor leaguers become compatible to Trout. 

Same logic, and Bobby Abreu was a hell of a lot more accomplished of a player than Kole Calhoun.  But sure, the fastest climbing prospect in the minors, the most talented Angels prospect since "You know who" won't be an upgrade over the guy who hit .208 last year and averages 2 wins above replacement per year.

The fact that you admittedly don't know anything about prospects, but are arguing that a prospect won't be an upgrade says all we need to know. 

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

If Calhoun struggles, it's a $14m black hole on the bench with Adell then playing RF. Adell is contingency. 
If Calhoun isn't here, and Adell struggles...what's the contingency? That's the difference.

So again, this all comes down to money - the argument isn't really about production, long-term or short-term. 

That's why I keep coming back to thinking there is a chance Calhoun stays - because I really do think the Angels could fill their needs this offseason with the non-Calhoun $36m and the handful of prospects they're comfortable dealing from.

The last few years we've been ruined by the lack of depth, the lack of or inflexibility to deal with unexpected circumstances, and we've fortunately been able to survive these a little better each year because the contingencies are getting better. 
There are more layers of depth. More options to turn to. It's saved our infield this year. It just doesn't sit well with me that we want to knowingly thin out some contingency just because Adell's gonna be great and another $14m would be cool. Especially when spending money isn't really Eppler's thing.

You want to make Kole Calhoun a 14 million dollar one year contingency plan?

Brian Goodwin, Michael Hermosillo, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh, and whatever other Cesar Puello type of minor league free agent can be Adell's contingency plan. 

And again, it's still putting Kole Calhoun in an awkward position that he doesn't deserve to be in.  He's having a bounce back year and hitting .238, but what if he's hitting .220 next year, which is well within the realm of possibility.  The media and the fans will already think Adell should be starting over him in the first place.  And again, every single wrong move on his part, misplaying a ball, strikeout, etc....results in greater scrutiny.  That's no way to treat a vet.

Trade him at the deadline, or if you think you can get the second wild card, hold onto him.  But unless you plan on giving him everyday at bats somewhere other than RF, let the man go.  He won't make 14 million a year on the open market but he can for sure secure a 6-7 million dollar one year deal to play somewhere.

[Angelsjunky]

43 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And if the Angels are still in WC mix until say, the last week of the season as has happened in recent years past, who does he take at-bats from? Upton? Calhoun? Ohtani? Once or twice a week instead of Goodwin?

In a vacuum I agree with everything about Calhoun/Adell/2020 discussion but I think a lot of it is very premature still. That’s all. And by mid-August, things might be a lot more clear.

A lot of these timelines being presented for Adell are practically unprecedented among recent top prospects, with Washington’s fast-track of both Harper and Soto being the exception - both played less than 200 minor league games. Trout, Acuna, Vlad, Tatis, Moncada were all comfortably into the 250+ MILB games played ranged when first called up. Adell is at ~180.

And, none of these recent top prospects have made their debut on Opening Day either, aside from Tatis Jr., no matter how good, no matter the need. 

So, if Adell plays this fall, it’ll be on way of the fastest ascents in recent history of a prospect his age. If he plays next spring, it’ll be one of the first times a team broke camp with their top prospect in the Opening Day lineup. Both are entirely possible - but it should be noted how extremely rare it is, even among some of the game’s best, most recent prospects.

It’s almost like if you had a really solid, reliable, road-tested engine in your hot rod that usually did the job, and then replacing it the day before the big, last race of the circuit with something you bought sight-unseen based on good reviews from a catalog. Might work great and better than before but you’re throwing a lot of risk into the equation for what exactly? I get the appeal but just think it’s being a bit ambitious unnecessarily. Put the new toy in the car for next circuit.

Good logic and your analogy works pretty well but leaves out the money part. If Kole was owed even up to around $8M, I'd say exercising his option would be a no-brainer. But $14M is a solid chunk of change. It is just shy of what Yasmani Grandal is being paid this year, or about what we can expect to pay for a #3 starter. While its not our money, I do think we have to take it into context. As I said, I'd rather have Adell/Grandal than Calhoun/Maldonado.

Anyhow, even if the Angels are in contention in September, I still think you call Adell up to get a taste of hanging out with the big league club - to get to know the guys, and for them to get to know him, and to get a few major league at bats. Even if he only gets 50 PA, its not like he's missing out on regular playing time in the minors because the season would be over. And yes, I think you play him over Goodwin, who has been mediocre since the first month of the season. If he hits well, he plays more - because in the crunch of a playoff run you play your best guy.

[totdprods]

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And again, it's still putting Kole Calhoun Jo Adell in an awkward position that he doesn't deserve to be in.  He's having a bounce back tough first year and hitting .238, but what if he's hitting .220 next year (exactly what Trout hit in his first year) which is well within the realm of possibility.  The media and the fans will already think Adell should be starting over him in the first place wasn’t ready and that declining Calhoun was a mistake.  every single wrong move on his part, misplaying a ball, strikeout, etc....results in greater scrutiny.  That's no way to treat a vet rookie who played less minor league games than Trout, Tatis, Vlad, Acuna, Moncada before debuting.

Sorry, but again, I could see the exact opposite playing out. Adell doesn’t need additional pressure either. 

If Calhoun is struggling, he’s an expensive bench bat/4th OF/occasional 1B, and trade bait for an opportunistic team. He’s a team player, always has been, and I think he’d gracefully take a spot on the bench and defer to Adell if that situation came up.

If the reverse occurred, Calhoun was dropped, Adell struggled...there’s no Calhoun to step in and help. And again, I’m expecting the Angels to be really gunning for it next year, more than recent years. As sufficient as Ward/Hermosillo/Walsh/Goodwin might be as depth, it could get a little cringey if we’ve dropped $200m on Cole, aren’t getting anything above replacement-level production in RF, and deal with any other Angel-related maladies that typically befall  this team. It’s just a little baffling to me that we’ve worked to get to a level of depth and we’re so quick to create more risk to plop in a (perhaps generational) talent at an unprecedented rate.

How often do things go to plan for this team? Ward, Thaiss, Hermosillo, and Walsh haven’t done much to assert themselves yet either. This puts a lot of pressure on them as well. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Glen said:

Do these figures of how much money the Angels will have to spend factor in arbitration raises?

Are there even that many players arb eligible, who are in line for a solid raise though?   The only ones I can think of are LaStella and Heaney, and even there, LaStella will be hurt some by missing some 2+ months and Heaney is only going to pitch about 120 innings max this season.

 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Are there even that many players arb eligible, who are in line for a solid raise though?   The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Heaney, and even there, he's only going to pitch about 120 innings max this season.

 

I haven’t been counting arb raises but yet, Heaney and possibly La Stella are the only ones who would make big jumps I believe. La Stella maybe not as much, but he did have a crazy year and is in final year of arb.

Bedrosian and Robles could get a little bump as well but nothing that would change the total much.

I’ve also frequently left off Lucroy’s $3.5m when using the $36m figure, because I assume at the very least that money will be used right back on another catcher in some capacity.

Edited July 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Same logic, and Bobby Abreu was a hell of a lot more accomplished of a player than Kole Calhoun.  But sure, the fastest climbing prospect in the minors, the most talented Angels prospect since "You know who" won't be an upgrade over the guy who hit .208 last year and averages 2 wins above replacement per year.

The fact that you admittedly don't know anything about prospects, but are arguing that a prospect won't be an upgrade says all we need to know. 

You are ridiculous Scotty.  Kole is having a really good year this year, you know this.  My comment was based solely on next year and whether or not he will provide an upgrade next year.  You might also remember that I said I would trade Kole or let him walk at the end of the season.  When Trout took over for Abreu he was batting about .200 and appeared to be a shell of his former self.  I don’t think anyone really thought Trout was going to be worse than Abreu.  If you want to argue this stuff with me go right ahead.  I will argue from a point of common sense and you will argue from a point of over valuing certain prospects because that is what you do.  Sure Adell might be a stud next year.  Hell he might even outperform Kole’s numbers this year, but the smart money says he won’t burst on the scene at 20 years old hitting 35 home runs and playing the same level defense as Kole.  

[Angelsjunky]

It might not be a question of whether or not Calhoun blocks Adell, but whether or not he blocks Ward, Walsh, Thaiss, and Hermosillo. There's a scenario where they keep Calhoun and Adell forces his way into lineup. Adell backs up Trout (just to give him a few rest and/or DH days), and Upton - who spends more and more time at DH. Calhoun gets maybe about one-third of the starts in RF, some time at 1B, and time at DH. Pujols playing time continues to diminish, and two of Thaiss, Ward, and Walsh are used in trades (as it is the Angels only have room for one or two of these guys long-term). Hermosillo, bless his soul, remains in AAA as the 5th outfielder until he's out of options, or is used in a trade.

 

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

It might not be a question of whether or not Calhoun blocks Adell, but whether or not he blocks Ward, Walsh, Thaiss, and Hermosillo. There's a scenario where they keep Calhoun and Adell forces his way into lineup. Adell backs up Trout (just to give him a few rest and/or DH days), and Upton - who spends more and more time at DH. Calhoun gets maybe about one-third of the starts in RF, some time at 1B, and time at DH. Pujols playing time continues to diminish, and two of Thaiss, Ward, and Walsh are used in trades (as it is the Angels only have room for one or two of these guys long-term). Hermosillo, bless his soul, remains in AAA as the 5th outfielder until he's out of options, or is used in a trade.

This is basically what I’ve been saying. Like becomes an expensive contingency for a lot of different potential failures, rather than parting with him and elevating the risk associated with all of those different scenarios. Adell struggling, Pujols aging, Upton, Trout, Ohtani getting hurt, the young depth failing to produce....

If we were in a huge bind for money, I would agree without doubt, part with Kole. Or if we weren’t really counting on 2020 as a window of contention year.  But I think we are. But we should have ~$30m to pitch at Cole. Or if not Cole, split between a mid-tier arm and a cheap vet, and some extra money thrown at pen. We can always trade Kole after the option is picked up too, if we need more money (Grandal? Rendon?), they might just need to eat some. And aside from the $30m, the Angels could also dip into prospects now or in winter to add a second SP without counting on the FA class.

There are ways to work around it.

Edited July 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

^Well, I'm on board with Kole as long as he doesn't block Adell (which I think we both agree he won't, but rather the fringe guys) and doesn't prohibit the Angels from signing two starters and a catcher upgrade.

As I've said, in 2020 I'd much rather have Adell/Grandal than Calhoun/Maldonado (or some other random back-up catcher). But if money isn't prohibitive, than its basically Calhoun vs. Thaiss/Ward/Walsh, and we haven't seen anything from any of those guys to think they'll be better than Calhoun. While normally I'd be willing to risk it with the idea that one of them three should emerge as at least pretty decent, the "fan/player favorite" aspect of Kole nudges me towards keeping him.

But I can see why Eppler would go either way. The only route I'm absolutely opposed to is cutting Calhoun and not spending on upgrades, but going for a year or two of lean times. As I wrote in the Three Big Questions thread, the Angels are close enough to being very good that they need to invest on competing next year.

[halomatt]

I'd trade Calhoun yesterday if it got us a future starting pitcher. I understand the context of doing so this season, but I don't see this team going very far this season.  It makes too much sense, especially if some team is desperate.

[Second Base]

 @totdprods

What if the Angels declined Calhoun's option and re-upped him for half that, or basically his 2.5 million dollar buy out and a one year, 5 million dollar contract. He serves as the 4th outfielder and a left handed platoon partner with Pujols at 1B/DH. 

This would require Calhoun being ok with a diminished role and Albert serving on the weak side of a platoon though. Plus the ramifications of that would indicate that Thaiss is in AAA and La Stella is likely dealt. All of which is unlikely.

Yeah...I just don't see it working out. I was just spit-balling before but now that I type it, it's a little far fetched.

The most simple way appears to be the best way. Calhoun is traded or let go, Adell plays RF and the Angels reinvest the money saved and allocate it toward the pitching help they desperately need.

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, RBM said:

So I went back and looked at the contracts and I think this is where we will be at. You are great at this so let me know if I got it right. This number is with the assumption that we bring back Kole Calhoun at $14 M.

Expiring Contracts:  $39 M (Harvey, Cahill, Allen, Lucroy, Bour, Garcia Tropeano, Ramirez, Skaggs RIP45)

Increased Contracts: $6 M (Upton, Simba, Pujols)

Arbitration Increases: $10 M (La Stella, Heaney, Robles, Bedrosian, Goodwin, Smith, Middleton)

 

Eppler's Spending Dollars: $23 M. (if we pick up Calhoun's option)

Looks great. The arb increases were more than I had expected and if it really is a tight $23m after all is said and done then yes, Calhoun’s option is an easy decline. 

Though I would argue too that Cole could be that elusive ‘right player’ Arte breaks budget for, especially with a lot of money coming off the next three following offseasons too.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

It might not be a question of whether or not Calhoun blocks Adell, but whether or not he blocks Ward, Walsh, Thaiss, and Hermosillo. There's a scenario where they keep Calhoun and Adell forces his way into lineup. Adell backs up Trout (just to give him a few rest and/or DH days), and Upton - who spends more and more time at DH. Calhoun gets maybe about one-third of the starts in RF, some time at 1B, and time at DH. Pujols playing time continues to diminish, and two of Thaiss, Ward, and Walsh are used in trades (as it is the Angels only have room for one or two of these guys long-term). Hermosillo, bless his soul, remains in AAA as the 5th outfielder until he's out of options, or is used in a trade.

 

You guys are trying hard to keep Calhoun's bat in the lineup when his defense is greatest attribute.

[Chuck]

Guys, there is two open Calhoun threads. Let's get back to prospects here. We can discuss trading Calhoun and what's best for the org's decision making in countless other threads. 

Thanks! 

[Docwaukee]

Knowles, Rondon and Verrier all went deep in the same inning.  

 

[Docwaukee]

Don't think we've mentioned Kelvin Moncion yet.  

6'1" lefty from the DR.  Don't know much about his stuff.  20 years old.  

Had a 3.04 era in the DSL last year with 61k in 50ip.  

This year split between AZL and Orem he's got an era around 2.5 after 5 scoreless today on 2 hits.  

any info on him would be great.  

[Docwaukee]

 

I'm kinda liking that new setup with the crouch.  then uncoils for the dinger.  Quiet front side with very little leg kick.  I think that's the best I've seen his swing look since he's been in the org.  

He's had a forgettable year so far of course, but I'm suddenly a bit hopeful again.  

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

 

I'm kinda liking that new setup with the crouch.  then uncoils for the dinger.  Quiet front side with very little leg kick.  I think that's the best I've seen his swing look since he's been in the org.  

He's had a forgettable year so far of course, but I'm suddenly a bit hopeful again.  

Younger than Adams, younger than practically everyone in the league. He’s had a few moments. 

Subpar year, but he could still come around quickly.

[Docwaukee]

Kyle Tyler with the strong piggyback start going 6ip, 2h, 0er, 3bb, 5k.  era for Burlington now down to 2.92 in 83.1ip.  Now with the 3rd most IP in the org this year behind Chris Molina and Jeremy Beasley.  

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Kyle Tyler with the strong piggyback start going 6ip, 2h, 0er, 3bb, 5k.  era for Burlington now down to 2.92 in 83.1ip.  Now with the 3rd most IP in the org this year behind Chris Molina and Jeremy Beasley.  

Dude has been rolling the last few weeks. 

[Docwaukee]

Wantz had struggled over his last few starts at AA but solid tonight.  5ip, 3h, 0er, 3bb, 5k.  

I've still got hope for him as a future back end starter with a slim chance he become a Lackey type guy.  (I said slim ok)

[Angelsjunky]

Will Wilson with his sixth multi-hit game in a row - his BA is up to .313 for the year as of right now. 

[Chuck]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Will Wilson with his sixth multi-hit game in a row - his BA is up to .313 for the year as of right now. 

A solid top three in the Orem Owlz lineup. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

^I'd like to see all three finish their years in A ball.