AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #21 Brennon Lund

[AngelsWin.com]

Prospect: Brennon Lund - Rank: 21

2015/16: UR                   Position(s): Outfield

Level: A Ball                  Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 5'11”                  Weight: 185 lb.

Present -  Future 

Hitting Ability: 50 - 55

Power: 30 - 40

Base Running: 60 - 60

Patience: 50 - 50

Fielding: 50 - 50

Range: 55 - 55

Arm: 45 - 45

Overall: 45 - 50

Floor: AAA Depth. 

Ceiling: Borderline starting outfielder.  

Likely Outcome: 4th/5th outfielder.

Summary: Brennon Lund is a case study in when do the numbers become legitimate? From a tools standpoint, he shouldn't be THAT good.  He should be decent, but not team leader type of good.  He's smaller in stature in terms of professional athletes, he doesn't have any power, there's some speed but not enough to be a base stealing threat at the highest level.  He's a good defender, but not so good that you'd consider him a defensive replacement that will give you anything but decent performance.  

When we take all of that into account, Lund is just minor league depth.   Except for the simple fact that he just keeps hitting.  His freshman year at BYU, he hit .303.  Not bad, especially considering it was his first year of college ball. His sophomore year, we see a modest jump up to .308, again, pretty good.  Then in his junior season, Lund just exploded, hitting .387 with career highs in every offensive category.  The Angels picked him up in the 11th round, which worked out in their favor.  Apparently other teams were scared off because he's mormon, and kids that are mormon and his age tend to wear ties, ride bicycles and knock on doors.  But Lund made it clear to the Angels that he doesn't intend to make a mission trip. 

Just breaking down Lund's swing, we see extremely simple mechanics.  His hands remain pretty close to the chest, he doesn't have a big load which can elongate his swing.  In fact, Lund has barely any load mechanism at all.  It's simple.  Hands fly through the zone, barrel of the bat to the ball, finish with hands high to ensure driving through the ball and not to the ball.  Lund uses the whole field, but being left-handed, occasionally he'll drop the barrel of the bat on a low and inside pitch and get himself a round-tripper.

Lund's first stop after signing with the Angels was the offensive paradise which is Orem in the Pioneer League, where he hit .397.  That's over 18 games, which is a bit of a small sample zine, but still, .397, this kid was crushing the competition, even against his fellow collegiate athletes.  Then as a sort of mercy to everyone else, Lund was sent to Burlington.  His performance against competition quite a bit older and more experienced than him led to Lund's numbers dropping to a modest .271/.320, but it still came with 9 doubles and 8 stolen bases in just 45 games.  Extrapolated across a full season, and without any improvement whatsoever (which is silly because of course Lund would improve, he was just drafted), Lund would've hit 27 doubles and stole 24 bases on the season.  Again, just solid numbers, especially for a kid that's young and inexperienced for his league.

So this leads to the logical question, that if Lund continues to hit so well, when do the numbers become legitimate?   When do we just say, he's a good hitter.  Good hitters are in the majors.   And that in a nut shell is exactly why Lund is ranked #21 on our list.  

What to expect next season: Lund will almost assuredly find himself at Inland Empire next season. Since he isn't a power hitter, the environment really shouldn't have much of a positive effect on his overall performance.  I expect Lund should post numbers rather similar to Bo Way.  At Inland Empire he hit .277/.349 with 27 stolen bases.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Late 2020, Lund's age 25 season

Grade as a prospect: C: Projects to be a reserve outfielder.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale.  20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen.  MLB average is 50.

[Second Base]

This kid has a pretty swing, and should make tons of contact. Does a lot of things right. He could profile similarly to Maicer Izturis offensively, which could be useful as a 4th OF.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

PHACK yeah!!!!!! We need more Slappy Utility Outfielders!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

****EDIT****

Ma Bad.... Great read, keep up the Great work!

[Angelsjunky]

I suppose the upside it someone like Brock Holt, although without the ability to play the infield.

[Angelsjunky]

In other words, Lund--in the best of all worlds--would be the David Eckstein of outfielders.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

In other words, Lund--in the best of all worlds--would be the David Eckstein of outfielders.

He has a beautiful, line drive generating swing. I think his likely outcome is AAA depth though. With the guys that are ranked 20-30, sometimes you have to be overly optimistic to make it worth talking about. The 10-20 prospects you can be real about, abd 1-10 I think sometimes you have to pump the brakes so as to not create too much hype.

I think the exeptions are guys like Trout, Calhoun, Richards, Heaney, and Tropeano, where from the very first time I saw them, I knew they were special, that they'd be pretty good major leaguers.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think the exeptions are guys like Trout, Calhoun, Richards, Heaney, and Tropeano, where from the very first time I saw them, I knew they were special, that they'd be pretty good major leaguers.

Well I'm glad you were right about Trout. I don't think anyone saw him being any good. 

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

He has a beautiful, line drive generating swing. I think his likely outcome is AAA depth though. With the guys that are ranked 20-30, sometimes you have to be overly optimistic to make it worth talking about. The 10-20 prospects you can be real about, abd 1-10 I think sometimes you have to pump the brakes so as to not create too much hype.

I think the exeptions are guys like Trout, Calhoun, Richards, Heaney, and Tropeano, where from the very first time I saw them, I knew they were special, that they'd be pretty good major leaguers.

That's a wide range of players: Trout is an all-time great, Calhoun a borderline star, Richards a borderline ace, and Heaney and Tropeano are TBD, but probably #3-4 starters. But yeah, I hear you.

If I were you guys I'd cap it at the top 20 and then have an honorable mention category where you talk generally about the next 10-20 prospects. But generally prospect lists don't get interesting until around the top 20.

 

[Second Base]

10 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Well I'm glad you were right about Trout. I don't think anyone saw him being any good. 

Totes.  The most surprising thing about Trout (at least to me) was how quickly he became great.  I was expecting some growing pains in AA that never came.  And once he was int he majors, there was never a "good" phase from him.  Never even a "great" phase.  He just shifted straight to historically great.  Now that, I never saw coming, mostly because I never saw it before. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Totes.  The most surprising thing about Trout (at least to me) was how quickly he became great.  I was expecting some growing pains in AA that never came.  And once he was int he majors, there was never a "good" phase from him.  Never even a "great" phase.  He just shifted straight to historically great.  Now that, I never saw coming, mostly because I never saw it before. 

Blew me away how this kid immediately hit 30 HRs. I had been excited about him and thought he'd grow into some power one day, but what he did right off the bat at his age.....whoa. 

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's a wide range of players: Trout is an all-time great, Calhoun a borderline star, Richards a borderline ace, and Heaney and Tropeano are TBD, but probably #3-4 starters. But yeah, I hear you.

If I were you guys I'd cap it at the top 20 and then have an honorable mention category where you talk generally about the next 10-20 prospects. But generally prospect lists don't get interesting until around the top 20.

 

Agreed, but it's partly about content.  Top 30 allows us to keep a consistent progression of scouting reports coming at you in late December, January and February, when the rest of baseball seems to go cold and there isn't really any news anywhere.  Creates a wider spread of information.  

I agree with the idea that Top 20 is a better fit than 30, especially in a shallow system such as ours.  The guys ranked 1-15 are really the ones I tend to be excited about. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Blew me away how this kid immediately hit 30 HRs. I had been excited about him and thought he'd grow into some power one day, but what he did right off the bat at his age.....whoa. 

I remember trying to create comps for Trout back when he was 18, and the best I could come up with was Jacoby Ellsbury, who at the time was a superstar.  I envisioned Trout being a .300 20 HR 40 SB type player in his prime at his very best.  He exceeded that by age 20, and now, I have no idea what he'll do at age 26-32, or in his marquee offensive year. .320 40 HR and 30 SB perhaps. 

[totdprods]

32 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I remember trying to create comps for Trout back when he was 18, and the best I could come up with was Jacoby Ellsbury, who at the time was a superstar.  I envisioned Trout being a .300 20 HR 40 SB type player in his prime at his very best.  He exceeded that by age 20, and now, I have no idea what he'll do at age 26-32, or in his marquee offensive year. .320 40 HR and 30 SB perhaps. 

I don't know if he'll peak in any one way more than another, but I can see him just becoming incredibly consistent in all aspects through his prime - a BA regularly in the .320-.330s (think his K's will keep decreasing and BBs increasing through his prime), an easy 40 HRs, maybe even landing near 50 once or twice, and maybe more of a 20 SB guy.

Hopefully Brennon Lund can do it too, just to try and wrest this back on topic, haha. 

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Scotty.  

I think Lund has a chance to be Reggie Willits part deux.  Just like Reggie, his 5'11" listing is probably a bit generous.  

Reggie probably had a bit more speed and PD, but Lund is a better hitter.  

Lund's best chance to be a major leaguer is to be a really really good hitter for avg. and a good corner OF defender.  

[totdprods]

Feel like there's a good chance we'll have 4th OF covered in a year or two with so many internal options. Kinda snark, kinda serious.

[Second Base]

I know he didn't make our Top 30 this year, but I really like the way Bo Way would fit as a 4th OF. I think it's clear he isn't the starting CF type in the majors, but his all around game is just solid. He's a decent hitter than can run and play really solid defense.

I think the same can be said for Hinshaw when he's healthy.

[Junkballer]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Agreed, but it's partly about content.  Top 30 allows us to keep a consistent progression of scouting reports coming at you in late December, January and February, when the rest of baseball seems to go cold and there isn't really any news anywhere.  Creates a wider spread of information.  

I agree with the idea that Top 20 is a better fit than 30, especially in a shallow system such as ours.  The guys ranked 1-15 are really the ones I tend to be excited about. 

Also, going to 30 helps those of us who don't follow prospects that closely to put some attributes (or lack thereof) to names.  I'm not going to do a lot of my own digging for prospect info but here it is doled out in bite-sized pieces  It helps flesh things out for us type-b fans.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Way to Jinx him Totes and Scotty!........

[Chuck]

I could see this guy being the perfect 4th outfielder.