Project the Angels team salary next year

[NrM]

How far under the tax do you think they will be?

Factoring in the estimated raises to Richards, Santiago, Calhoun and other eligible players.

 

I'm guessing they'll have 110-120 million committed? Conservative estimate of next years luxury threshold 200 million?

So that leaves around 80+ million. 80 million to spend in a year where there likely wont be much talent.

These were just wild estimates on my part. I'm sure some of you can do a more accurate breakdown.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Poozy

[Second Base]

The luxury tax is simply based off the AAV of a contract, not what the actual payroll is that year. The actual payroll looks to be quite a bit lower than the AAV based number. My best guess is we'll end up 2-3 million below the mark. The following year, it's a strong bet we'll be 20-30 million under it.

[NrM]

The luxury tax is simply based off the AAV of a contract, not what the actual payroll is that year. 

 

I know it is based off of the AAV, but I was under the impression it wouldn't be much higher than the overall payroll.

 

The actual payroll looks to be quite a bit lower than the AAV based number. My best guess is we'll end up 2-3 million below the mark. The following year, it's a strong bet we'll be 20-30 million under it.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. The AAV and Payroll seem pretty close.

 

Pujols will be making 26 mil next year, AAV 24 mil

Hamilton 26 mil, AAV around 21-23 mil.

 

The only player making less than his AAV next year will be trout.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Poozy

[Stradling]

So if we're about $175 million this year, we are losing about $35 million against the tax with Wilson, Weaver and Smith. If you let Escobar go there's another $5 million or so. So $135 million plus you'd figure $10 million in raises to Kole and Richards. So $145 ish. Arte implied cap isn't going up, so who knows.

[NrM]

So if we're about $175 million this year, we are losing about $35 million against the tax with Wilson, Weaver and Smith. If you let Escobar go there's another $5 million or so. So $135 million plus you'd figure $10 million in raises to Kole and Richards. So $145 ish. Arte implied cap isn't going up, so who knows.

 

I have $110 ish before the raises to Richards, Calhoun and Santiago. The AAV should be pretty damn close to the overall payroll.

 

Am I missing something?

[NrM]

So if we're about $175 million this year, we are losing about $35 million against the tax with Wilson, Weaver and Smith. If you let Escobar go there's another $5 million or so. So $135 million plus you'd figure $10 million in raises to Kole and Richards. So $145 ish. Arte implied cap isn't going up, so who knows.

 

mike trout, josh hamilton and albert pujols will be making more in 2017.

The AAV should be almost on par with the team payroll.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Poozy

[tomsred]

Did you account for the benefits portion of the salaries? How about Spring Training expenses. Also it is based on the 40 man roster, did you include for that as well? All of those things affect the AAV calculation for luxury tax.

Edited February 6, 2016 by tomsred

[NrM]

Did you account for the benefits portion of the salaries? How about Spring Training expenses. Also it is based on the 40 man roster, did you include for that as well? All of those things affect the AAV calculation for luxury tax.

 

I didn't include the players making the league minimum. 

I'm guessing that would add another 5 mil.

 

Which is in line with my original estimate of 110-120. 

 

Looks like the medical expenses is the kicker...

A baseball source said the annual expense for medical benefits typically runs between $10 and $11 million per season. We'll split it down the middle for our purposes and say $10.5 million.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/understanding-payroll-and-luxury-tax.html#6KeUSwHQZmVS1xFk.99

 

 

Stradling's estimate looks about right.

I knew I was missing something.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Poozy

[Docwaukee]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg/pubhtml

 

above is the CBT estimate per Fletcher 

 

assuming arb raises and benefits, we are at around 142mil without the 7 mil option for Escobar.  Salary is around 128 w/o escobar.  The delta being the 15mil in benefits.  

 

but those estimates include Alburquerque, Nava and Gentry still being on the team as the are all 3rd year arb eligible next year.  We lose Smith, Weaver, Wilson, Soto, Salas.  

 

So if you include Escobar, our CBT # is around 150mil and our salary is around 135mil.  

 

I agree that the threshold will go up a touch to around 200mil.  Some say it won't.   

 

Frankly though, I think the lux tax threshold is just a crutch and not the real barrier.  It's the real dollar amount that matters to Arte.  The 2016 payroll is around 160mil.  I think that's the real number.  

 

So I estimate that we will spend up to 25mil next year.  

 

it all about how many fans show up this year.  If we end up with 78 wins, and drop below 3 million fans, Arte will make a winter splash.  My guess is he'll get Strasburg.  

 

If we come close to 3 million fans and win 85 games just missing the playoffs, then we might make some minor adds, but we won't do much. The more likely scenario.

[NrM]

it all about how many fans show up this year.  If we end up with 78 wins, and drop below 3 million fans, Arte will make a winter splash.  My guess is he'll get Strasburg.  

Kind of scary thought tbh. Angels are going to have so many holes. Blowing all your money on one player could turn into a disaster.

[KevinJ14]

Could Angels be saving money for 2018?

[Hollyw00d]

Arte's saving money for The Sale

[totdprods]

Could Angels be saving money for 2018?

I hope so. That's the only scenario that makes this offseason make sense to me. Eppler has acquired a bunch of cheap, controllable players who, if lucky, are talented enough to keep this team competitive through the next several years.

Save money, let the current big contracts drop off, and shift focus towards the farm for the next few years, keeping an eye on the next FA class, Trout's next extension, and whatever money Arte needs for stadium progress.

[Ohtaniland]

I think Arte is going to cut even more. There's no rule that says he needs to be at the threshold. He may decide to ramp it down to something slightly above league average.

[gotbeer]

My guess would be the opening day payroll will be around the $150 million range. 

 

I think you all know my conspiracy theory/smokescreen about the CBT.

 

According to Cots:

2015 $146.3

2014 $154.5

2013 137.2

2012 $151.3

2011 $141

 

2016 is ATM at $160.5.  Subtract the entire amount owed in the Hamilton debacle, and we are at $134.1.  Right around that general area where our typical opening day salaries have been for the last 6 years. 

 

2017 we are sitting at $92.8 ATM.  $66.4 minus Hamilton.  Of course this is only for 6 players, and no arbitration players.  So that amount will increase significantly. 

[Docwaukee]

My guess would be the opening day payroll will be around the $150 million range. 

 

I think you all know my conspiracy theory/smokescreen about the CBT.

 

According to Cots:

2015 $146.3

2014 $154.5

2013 137.2

2012 $151.3

2011 $141

 

2016 is ATM at $160.5.  Subtract the entire amount owed in the Hamilton debacle, and we are at $134.1.  Right around that general area where our typical opening day salaries have been for the last 6 years. 

 

2017 we are sitting at $92.8 ATM.  $66.4 minus Hamilton.  Of course this is only for 6 players, and no arbitration players.  So that amount will increase significantly. 

I don't think it's a conspiracy at all.  

 

He has his operational budget of where he and his board members are comfortable going.   That budget has a disproportionate allocation of funds going toward major league salaries relative to other teams.  Being about 10mil above the last few years probably means even less will be allocated to other things this year like player development and scouting.  

[Second Base]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg/pubhtml

 

above is the CBT estimate per Fletcher 

 

assuming arb raises and benefits, we are at around 142mil without the 7 mil option for Escobar.  Salary is around 128 w/o escobar.  The delta being the 15mil in benefits.  

 

but those estimates include Alburquerque, Nava and Gentry still being on the team as the are all 3rd year arb eligible next year.  We lose Smith, Weaver, Wilson, Soto, Salas.  

 

So if you include Escobar, our CBT # is around 150mil and our salary is around 135mil.  

 

I agree that the threshold will go up a touch to around 200mil.  Some say it won't.   

 

Frankly though, I think the lux tax threshold is just a crutch and not the real barrier.  It's the real dollar amount that matters to Arte.  The 2016 payroll is around 160mil.  I think that's the real number.  

 

So I estimate that we will spend up to 25mil next year.  

 

it all about how many fans show up this year.  If we end up with 78 wins, and drop below 3 million fans, Arte will make a winter splash.  My guess is he'll get Strasburg.  

 

If we come close to 3 million fans and win 85 games just missing the playoffs, then we might make some minor adds, but we won't do much. The more likely scenario.

I don't get the sense we'll be pursuing pitching next season, seeing as the rotation will already be full as is. I think a more likely scenario is signing Reddick over market value. But then again, if it were me, I'd just spend on Fowler this year, who is likely set to get below market value. The problem would be fixed for the next four years.

[Docwaukee]

I don't get the sense we'll be pursuing pitching next season, seeing as the rotation will already be full as is. I think a more likely scenario is signing Reddick over market value. But then again, if it were me, I'd just spend on Fowler this year, who is likely set to get below market value. The problem would be fixed for the next four years.

Cespedes will opt out and get his Chris Davis type deal.   Probably not from us.  

 

There is a bit more pitching available next year that offense.  Maybe signing a pitcher gives you some flexibility to trade for some offense.  

 

If anything, this is the most unpredictable the team has been in awhile.  

[Ohtaniland]

Cespedes will opt out and get his Chris Davis type deal. Probably not from us.

There is a bit more pitching available next year that offense. Maybe signing a pitcher gives you some flexibility to trade for some offense.

If anything, this is the most unpredictable the team has been in awhile.

This was very predictable after what happened with the disaster of Hamilton and the not so superstar injury plagued performances by Albert. I think Arte has seen teams with less financial commitments perform at a higher level and that has to be disheartening to him. I think Arte is going to ramp it down even more next season.

[Docwaukee]

This was very predictable after what happened with the disaster of Hamilton and the not so superstar injury plagued performances by Albert. I think Arte has seen teams with less financial commitments perform at a higher level and that has to be disheartening to him. I think Arte is going to ramp it down even more next season.

I really think it depends on what attendance does this year.  If it's pretty steady regardless of whether we make the playoffs, then you are probably right.  

 

I feel like they are unpredictable because of the moves they have made.  

[Ohtaniland]

I really think it depends on what attendance does this year. If it's pretty steady regardless of whether we make the playoffs, then you are probably right.

I feel like they are unpredictable because of the moves they have made.

Doc, Arte over the years has been very passionate about winning a championship. He put his trust in Scioscia from the very beginning. He's invested in some of the high market free agents since he bought the team. He's tried an inhouse GM and then tried to see if Dipoto could make a difference.

I believe that he's now turned everything over to Eppler with a set budget. Eppler had few options this offseason but still managed to change 20% of the roster. Next offseason he will probably do much of the same. I think he's on a 4-5 year plan. The organization as a whole needs time to recoup from the years of "we don't rebuild, we just retool". That's where our arrogance has finally caught up to us.

I think Albert and Josh really got to Arte. Those two guys were going to be the pieces that finally delivered Arte his coveted trophy. Arte has to be disappointed after investing millions in star power that didn't make his team any better. Keep in mind that the Angels won more games during 2008-2011 (before Pujols) than 2012-2015 (during Pujols). They also fared better in the playoffs before Albert and Josh.

Yes Arte is probably kicking himself for investing too much money and trust in players so now I think he's going to let his baseball people figure it out.

Edited February 7, 2016 by CALZONE

[Stradling]

The Angels are not losing because of Albert, they are losing because of what he and Trout are surrounded by. Also the Angels were more successful before 2012 because they had better pitching starting and relieving.

[tdawg87]

Given the casual nature of your average Angels fan, I'm going to guess Pujols is making Arte money in the long run.

Hamilton obviously is a waste.

[Ohtaniland]

Given the casual nature of your average Angels fan, I'm going to guess Pujols is making Arte money in the long run.

Hamilton obviously is a waste.

Well if Pujols was brought here just to make Arte money then mission accomplished. I really think Arte had other things in mind. Pujols really hasn't made any impact as far as winning.

[Ohtaniland]

The Angels are not losing because of Albert, they are losing because of what he and Trout are surrounded by. Also the Angels were more successful before 2012 because they had better pitching starting and relieving.

Well Strad,

You and I disagree on everything Albert Pujols. He hasn't made the team any better since he's been here.