Nats out on major OF

[Second Base]

They just acquired who I think we should've had our eye on, Ben Revere. As a favorite to land either Upton or Cespedes and trade Werth, they've effectively removed themselves from expensive OF. Now obviously it doesn't look like we're in on anybody, but at the same time, you couldn't ask for better conditions for the Angels to make a big splash.

There's a giant hole in their roster and no clear cut favorite in the division, there aren't any rich competitors to spend any money for these guys. The conditions are rich for a discount. Too bad we aren't spend any more.

[Stradling]

Well Arte has spent a bunch of money on this team, including $25 million on left field, it's up to the players that are here to perform, this team isn't one player away from being great, give Eppler 3-4 years. Paying Revere $5.5 million is a huge over pay.

Did I cover it all tdawg?

[Jay]

so only the Angels are left?

it's a buyer's market!

[seenoevil]

Harper gets help, but Trout no!

[QuinlansMinion]

This team will go as far as the rotation takes them. If Richards and Heaney can be a solid 1/2, Hector improves to become a solid 3, CJ provides something as a 4 starter, and one of Shoemaker, Weaver, or Skaggs can be a solid 5 starter, we'll contend for the division. If anything goes wrong in the rotation, this could be a last place team. The pen will be decent, the offense will probably suck, the defense will probably be average with 3 horrible infield defenders when Pujols is out.

Adding Cespedes or Upton to this would change things dramatically. But until that happens, best hope that we get a couple legitimate aces out of the rotation.

[seenoevil]

yeah, someone who can protect Trout. and It's not old Pujols!

[tdawg87]

Well Arte has spent a bunch of money on this team, including $25 million on left field, it's up to the players that are here to perform, this team isn't one player away from being great, give Eppler 3-4 years. Paying Revere $5.5 million is a huge over pay.

Did I cover it all tdawg?

 

Shouldn't you be asking Clawed

[Second Base]

There is no reason whatsoever to pitch a strike to Mike Trout. Not with this offense. Albert is a much easier out. Calhoun hitting in front of him, had an OBP of what, .310?

Sorry, but because of the weakness surrounding him, Trout's HR's should plummet next year while his OBP reaches up toward .450. You might think that this team isn't one move away from being a division favorite, but I'd argue otherwise. The value of putting a Cespedes or Upton behind him will change the nature in which pitchers will treat Trout, knowing that their in danger behind him too. I think Cespedes or Upton not only improve our defense which aides the pitching staff, it also improves Trout, who in return increases the value of those hitting in front of him.

Upton or Cespedes completely transform this offense, and both directly and indirectly adds another 8-ish wins to a team expected to hover around .500. Upton or Cespedes in my mind, are the difference between a disappointing season, and a division crown or WC1 birth. Particularly Upton, who will be in is physical prime for another 4 years at least.

So yeah, I get that we aren't spending money and have come to terms with it. But I won't devalue just how much an all-star caliber LF in a team friendly contract would help this team across the next half decade.

[QuinlansMinion]

There is no reason whatsoever to pitch a strike to Mike Trout. Not with this offense. Albert is a much easier out. Calhoun hitting in front of him, had an OBP of what, .310?

 

Yet a lot of people still think Calhoun should be hitting in front of Trout.  Over the last 3 years Calhoun's OPS with runners on base is .816, to go along with a .299 batting average.  With none on, hes hitting .245 with a .725 OPS.  This is no small sample size, 823 at bats with nobody on base, compared to 495 at bats with runners on base.  Hes also hit 35 solo home runs over the past 3 seasons.  

 

The numbers are pretty clear, but we have a manger who refuses to listen to them.  With this current lineup, Calhoun should be hitting behind Trout, to maximize Trout's value with his .400+ OBP, and Calhoun's ability to hit with runners on base.  Pujols is hitting .225 with runners on base over the last 3 seasons.  This might have been one of the things Dipoto suggested to Scioscia before he left, but he refused to move Calhoun down in the order and kept Pujols behind Trout.  

Edited January 9, 2016 by QuinlansMinion

[NrM]

There is no reason whatsoever to pitch a strike to Mike Trout. Not with this offense. Albert is a much easier out. Calhoun hitting in front of him, had an OBP of what, .310?

Sorry, but because of the weakness surrounding him, Trout's HR's should plummet next year while his OBP reaches up toward .450. You might think that this team isn't one move away from being a division favorite, but I'd argue otherwise. The value of putting a Cespedes or Upton behind him will change the nature in which pitchers will treat Trout, knowing that their in danger behind him too. I think Cespedes or Upton not only improve our defense which aides the pitching staff, it also improves Trout, who in return increases the value of those hitting in front of him.

Upton or Cespedes completely transform this offense, and both directly and indirectly adds another 8-ish wins to a team expected to hover around .500. Upton or Cespedes in my mind, are the difference between a disappointing season, and a division crown or WC1 birth. Particularly Upton, who will be in is physical prime for another 4 years at least.

So yeah, I get that we aren't spending money and have come to terms with it. But I won't devalue just how much an all-star caliber LF in a team friendly contract would help this team across the next half decade.

 

Hopefully Trout starts stealing again. I doubt it though.

[Docwaukee]

There is no reason whatsoever to pitch a strike to Mike Trout. Not with this offense. Albert is a much easier out. Calhoun hitting in front of him, had an OBP of what, .310?

Sorry, but because of the weakness surrounding him, Trout's HR's should plummet next year while his OBP reaches up toward .450. You might think that this team isn't one move away from being a division favorite, but I'd argue otherwise. The value of putting a Cespedes or Upton behind him will change the nature in which pitchers will treat Trout, knowing that their in danger behind him too. I think Cespedes or Upton not only improve our defense which aides the pitching staff, it also improves Trout, who in return increases the value of those hitting in front of him.

Upton or Cespedes completely transform this offense, and both directly and indirectly adds another 8-ish wins to a team expected to hover around .500. Upton or Cespedes in my mind, are the difference between a disappointing season, and a division crown or WC1 birth. Particularly Upton, who will be in is physical prime for another 4 years at least.

So yeah, I get that we aren't spending money and have come to terms with it. But I won't devalue just how much an all-star caliber LF in a team friendly contract would help this team across the next half decade.

 

So I think it's a good point that a guy like Upton or Cespedes probably brings more wins to the team than just the WAR attached to their season.  It's hard to put a number on, but 8 wins is a bit aggressive for an estimate.  Maybe 2 above and beyond their numbers.  

 

Mike Trout is the best player in baseball.  There isn't anyone we can add that pitchers would fear enough to make them more likely to pitch to Trout.  When opposing pitchers sit next to their pitching coach before the game, you can bet that one of the big topics of conversation is to make sure that Trout doesn't beat you with runners on base.  It's the reason why he hit 31 solo home runs last year and had a .455 obp when runners were on base and a .508 obp with RISP.  That's not gonna change.  His hr numbers will likely go down the better the offense gets.  

 

Maybe getting guys on a bit more in front of him helps Trout out, but it likely helps out the guys behind him even more.  And that's why adding guys with obp in front of Trout and ops behind him helps the team more that just what those guys bring in WAR.  

 

Last year the #1 spot in our order put up a .280 obp.  Last in baseball by 10 points.  The only word I have for that is egregious.  

Last year our #4 spot in our order put up a .291 obp with a .689 ops and a wRC+ of 90.  Also last in baseball in every one of those categories.  

We were bottom 3rd from the #5 spot.  

Middle of the pack for the #6, #7, and #8 spots.  I can handle that.  Especially because if you fill spots above that, in lengthens the lineup and shifts everyone down. 

#9 spot we were 2nd to last, but the 2nd highest number of PA came from featherston and Johnny G only had 168 pa at that spot.  

the #2 and #3 spots we ranked 2nd and 1st.  Mostly because of Trout with Kole and Albert being average there. 

 

Here is a little exercise.  

If we added Cespedes and brought back Freese we would rank at each spot in the lineup as follows using the listed player and a reasonable estimate of their wRC+

 

1. Escobar 15th

2. Calhoun 15th

3. Trout 1st

4. Pujols 12th

5. Cespedes 7th

6. Freese 6th

7. Cron 6th

8. Perez 12th

9. Simmons 1st

 

or if we added someone like Parra or Blackmon (ie league average and they hit 2nd and calhoun 5th while still adding back Freese:

 

1. 15th

2. 15th

3. 1st

4. 12th

5. 13th

6. 6th

7. 6th

8. 12th

9. 1st

 

Those are conservative estimates of what those guys will produce btw.  Maybe drop them a touch when you factor in bench at bats, but that is pretty damn good.  

When we led the league in offense in 2014 our ranks were as follows:

 

1. 9th

2. 1st

3. 20th

4. 16th

5. 15th

6. 14th

7.  8th

8.  5th

9. 10th

 

So maybe we aren't as far off as I thought.  

[Stradling]

In less words than Doc, I've become a fan of adding OBP guys in front of him so it's less likely to pitch around him. We used to talk about getting protection for Vlad, but once again the best players in the game can't have protection really. But if you think about it how is this different than last year? Trout was the best and Albert was behind him and Trout wasn't pitched around. Most of Mike's walks came from him being patient not from not getting a pitch to hit.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Last year the #1 spot in our order put up a .280 obp.  Last in baseball by 10 points.  The only word I have for that is egregious.  

Last year our #4 spot in our order put up a .291 obp with a .689 ops and a wRC+ of 90.  Also last in baseball in every one of those categories.  

We were bottom 3rd from the #5 spot.  

Middle of the pack for the #6, #7, and #8 spots.  I can handle that.  Especially because if you fill spots above that, in lengthens the lineup and shifts everyone down. 

#9 spot we were 2nd to last, but the 2nd highest number of PA came from featherston and Johnny G only had 168 pa at that spot.  

the #2 and #3 spots we ranked 2nd and 1st.  Mostly because of Trout with Kole and Albert being average there. 

 

Here is a little exercise.  

If we added Cespedes and brought back Freese we would rank at each spot in the lineup as follows using the listed player and a reasonable estimate of their wRC+

 

1. Escobar 15th

2. Calhoun 15th

3. Trout 1st

4. Pujols 12th

5. Cespedes 7th

6. Freese 6th

7. Cron 6th

8. Perez 12th

9. Simmons 1st

 

 

Can't we just keep Trout in the #2 spot? We aren't going to be able to add enough OBP in front of him to make moving him to the 3 spot worthwhile. Moving Trout to 3rd makes the lineup look a little better because you are shifting guys down, but the only real affect is that Trout is getting less PA's and in lower leverage situations.

[AngelsLakersFan]

It should also be noted that, as the price for Cespedes and Upton comes down, in theory there should be more teams becoming interested. Just about every team has money, and most could find use for a guy like Upton or Cespedes. When their potential contract reaches the point where it becomes a good overall value teams we don't expect to will start jumping in.

[laagamer]

Unless you're Barry Bonds and they walk you with a runner on 1B, then everybody can benefit from OBP guys up top. I agree that there's no fully protecting Trout, but I can guarantee a better bat than Pujols behind him would allow him at least a handful more chances with runners on. They would try and pitch to him more.

EDIT: & Scotty, you do realize a .450 OBP for Trout would be the equivalent of like a .340 AVG and 120+ walks right?

Edited January 9, 2016 by laagamer

[Second Base]

Unless you're Barry Bonds and they walk you with a runner on 1B, then everybody can benefit from OBP guys up top. I agree that there's no fully protecting Trout, but I can guarantee a better bat than Pujols behind him would allow him at least a handful more chances with runners on. They would try and pitch to him more.

EDIT: & Scotty, you do realize a .450 OBP for Trout would be the equivalent of like a .340 AVG and 120+ walks right?

I was thinking a more drastic transition of numbers. If he isn't being pitched to, pretty much at all, the BA shows no cause to fluctuate up or down, it'll probably stay at .300. But because he won't be getting anything to hit, the HR's may decrease down to25. Less opportunity ya know? But the OBP would skyrocket. And I don't envision him stealing bases much more because they want to keep him healthy. If you look at Griffey, it was similar, he had the speed to steal 30 a year, but because of the era he played in, and the fact that he was just trying to stay healthy, the end number was usually around 15.

[Docwaukee]

In less words than Doc, I've become a fan of adding OBP guys in front of him so it's less likely to pitch around him. We used to talk about getting protection for Vlad, but once again the best players in the game can't have protection really. But if you think about it how is this different than last year? Trout was the best and Albert was behind him and Trout wasn't pitched around. Most of Mike's walks came from him being patient not from not getting a pitch to hit.

He actually was pitched around as I mentioned in my post.   His patience and not getting anything to hit led to these numbers.  

 

bases empty, he had a 10% walk rate with 31 solo hrs in 370 ab

with men on, he had a 18.8% bb rate and hit 10 hrs in 205 ab

with risp, he had a 23.8% bb rate and hit 8 hrs in 88 ab.  

 

I just don't see that changing.  I think the more guys on base and in scoring position for Mike the more he will succeed, but maybe not from a hr standpoint.  

[Docwaukee]

Can't we just keep Trout in the #2 spot? We aren't going to be able to add enough OBP in front of him to make moving him to the 3 spot worthwhile. Moving Trout to 3rd makes the lineup look a little better because you are shifting guys down, but the only real affect is that Trout is getting less PA's and in lower leverage situations.

I had Calhoun 3rd and Trout 2nd originally and then I changed it because I think its unrealistic for Scioscia.  But I would do

 

Escobar

Trout

Pujols 

Cespedes/Upton

Calhoun

Freese 

Cron

Perez

Simmonss

[Angelsjunky]

I remember when the Royals were out on Gordon.

[laagamer]

I just don't see anyone walking Trout 150 times a year to justify that OBP with a .300 AVG. Doesn't matter who we put behind him.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I had Calhoun 3rd and Trout 2nd originally and then I changed it because I think its unrealistic for Scioscia.  But I would do

 

Escobar

Trout

Pujols 

Cespedes/Upton

Calhoun

Freese 

Cron

Perez

Simmonss

 

That's the way to go. Pujols still gets to bat third which is ideal for his skill set, and you keep your best hitter in the most influential spot in the lineup.

[Blarg]

The Angels are not signing Freese, Giavotella is going to play 2nd base.

[Angel Oracle]

I almost prefer that they don't sign Freese, but instead move Escobar to 2B and give 3B to Cowart, and see how the first 1-2 months of the season goes.

If Escobar can even adapt some to 2B, Pujols does return to the lineup with solid defense, and Cowart can stay in the lineup, that is a very solid defensive INF.

[QuinlansMinion]

That's the way to go. Pujols still gets to bat third which is ideal for his skill set, and you keep your best hitter in the most influential spot in the lineup.

Hitting .220 with runners on base is ideal for batting 3rd?

[AngelsLakersFan]

Hitting .220 with runners on base is ideal for batting 3rd?

 

Ya because the 3rd spot comes up the most often with 2 outs and no one on base.