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Where will the Halos pitching staff ultimately rank in 2013?


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EDIT: Didn't realize this probably included bullpen, I was just talking about starters because I just read the other thread and didn't pay close enough attention.

 

I'm a bit more optimistic than most people with our starting pitching. Weaver should perform like one of the top pitchers in the league, I think Wilson will rebound similarly to after the last time he had this elbow surgery and be ace caliber, giving us one of the best 1-2 punches. Vargas will be pretty good with our defense and at least be an average middle of the rotation starter. Blanton will be no worse than he has been in his career, possibly better given our defense/ballpark/being in better shape. Hanson is a huge question mark but I think Richards could be a decent #5 right now if Hanson has problems. Of course 2+ injuries could make this staff significantly worse, unless Williams steps up.

 

As it stands in the AL I only see Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Toronto being better than us for sure when healthy (1-2 others you could argue for) and will almost certainly outperform our staff. I predict they'll finish between 5-8th in ERA, right around the middle of the pack.

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I will say this.   Talent wise, the pitching staff is a lot better than 9th.

 

BUT, there are a ton of question marks.

Can Wilson FINALLY trust his stuff and stop nibbling?

Can Vargas improve on the road?

Can Blanton avoid becoming Blantana with the gopher balls?

Can Hanson even stay healthy for a full season?

Can Madson be ready by May?

Can Jepsen prove that one half of a season of being good wasn't a fluke, as it was after 2009?

Can Frieri have enough command?

Can Burnett stay healthy?

 

Too many cans!

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I will say this.   Talent wise, the pitching staff is a lot better than 9th.

 

BUT, there are a ton of question marks.

Can Wilson FINALLY trust his stuff and stop nibbling?

Can Vargas improve on the road?

Can Blanton avoid becoming Blantana with the gopher balls?

Can Hanson even stay healthy for a full season?

Can Madson be ready by May?

Can Jepsen prove that one half of a season of being good wasn't a fluke, as it was after 2009?

Can Frieri have enough command?

Can Burnett stay healthy?

 

Too many cans!

 

 

He hates these cans!

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Let's rank the other 14 in the AL to see where they'd be, then slot the Angels in.

 

Worst 3: Houston, Minnesota, Cleveland

Next 3: KC, Baltimore, Boston

Next 3: NY, Texas, LA.

Next 3: Detroit, Toronto, Chicago

Best 3: Tampa, Oakland, Seattle

 

An argument can be made for putting NY into the top five, but Toronto took a huge step forward with three new starters in Dickey, Johnson, Buerhle. Chicago could slip. Texas could move up. Detroit could move down. KC and Baltimore could move up. Boston could have a better year. Oakland could fall, Tampa could fall, but neither fall far, have been top 5 in pitching for a long time.

 

Still, 7-9th place wouldn't be too bad here as the teams ahead of us, all could drop, and the two best offenses, are right near each other in this set.

 

Best guess, they'll finish between 5th to 10th. Wilson, Vargas have to have great years to match the past three years, but less than 700 runs is possible, especially with an improved back of the bullpen. 

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You know what is funny about baseball? Whenever you go into the season with certain expectations, they almost never work out exactly how you thought they would. Last year I think we all thought the Angels' rotation would be the best in baseball, if not top 3. Many "experts" expected the same thing. Yet when it was all said and done, the rotation was average at best. As for the bullpen, even though they blew a ton of saves, they still did better overall than a lot of us thought they would.

 

Also, did anyone see the '09 team having arguably the best offense in the history of the franchise?

 

My point is, even though the pitching looks like crap on paper, and has not done much to quell any of our concerns during ST, we can never truly predict how things will turn out. Therefore, I would not be the least bit surprised if the pitching staff was much better than expected this year. Things have to work out perfectly for them to have a "good" staff, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

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Realistically, I think it's towards the bottom of the league. A lot of factors go into that. The main one's are what AO posted about the "cans", and the other thing is that Mike Butcher is the pitching coach. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I just don't have a ton of confidence in some of the guys

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Concerned about Weaver -- he's pitching tonight and looks good, retired 12 in a row and didn't allow a hit until the 5th with no walks -- but I've never seen him look worse than that ST game at Phoenix Municipal Stadium in that two innings, 3 HRs, 8 run performance vs. Oakland. Awful.

 

Hansen is having some arm issues; I see baseballs flying out of the park against Blanton -- I think Vargas will win 15 or so games.  Wilson? hard to say. But I think the Halos offense will make him a 15 game winner, at least......may not be a pretty 15 wins but pretty pitching wins not required.

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Concerned about Weaver -- he's pitching tonight and looks good, retired 12 in a row and didn't allow a hit until the 5th with no walks -- but I've never seen him look worse than that ST game at Phoenix Municipal Stadium in that two innings, 3 HRs, 8 run performance vs. Oakland. Awful.

 

Hansen is having some arm issues; I see baseballs flying out of the park against Blanton -- I think Vargas will win 15 or so games.  Wilson? hard to say. But I think the Halos offense will make him a 15 game winner, at least......may not be a pretty 15 wins but pretty pitching wins not required.

 

Don't be concerned about Weaver. I see a Cy-Season out of him this year. He could've been trying a new pitch, new grip, experimenting in that game. That's what pitchers do in ST. Especially veterans.

 

Hanson will win 12 games, in fact, the entire rotation will win 12 games or more and Richards, who I expect to get a bunch of starts, will win 7.

 

Weaver and Wilson are both great pitchers, Vargas and Blanton may surprise people, and Hanson has potential as does Richards.

 

Having four flyball pitchers and an OF of Trout, Bourjos, and Hamilton is a recipe for success.

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12th of 12.  I have serious concerns with our pitching.

 

12th of 15?

 

So the Twins, The Astros, and the Indians will be worse off? You expect the Royals, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles all to have better pitching staffs than the Angels? Really?

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Uplifting report from Keith Law who scouted Hanson this week.  Said he looked solid, sitting mostly 88-89 with some nice cut and had a plus curveball working all night that.  Most importantly, he was throwing strikes, which was especially impressive with the curveball. Only bit of downside was the slider which was average after being once his best pitch.  Seems like he's going to be a bit Harenesque--can be successful if he keeps the ball down and throwns his offspeed stuff for strikes.  Overall, much more encouraging then some of the stuff thats been said earlier in teh summer.

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Uplifting report from Keith Law who scouted Hanson this week.  Said he looked solid, sitting mostly 88-89 with some nice cut and had a plus curveball working all night that.  Most importantly, he was throwing strikes, which was especially impressive with the curveball. Only bit of downside was the slider which was average after being once his best pitch.  Seems like he's going to be a bit Harenesque--can be successful if he keeps the ball down and throwns his offspeed stuff for strikes.  Overall, much more encouraging then some of the stuff thats been said earlier in teh summer.

 

Haren hasn't looked great this spring. Dipoto will look like a genius in retrospect if Hanson has a better year for a fraction of the price.

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Let's rank the other 14 in the AL to see where they'd be, then slot the Angels in.

 

Worst 3: Houston, Minnesota, Cleveland

Next 3: KC Baltimore, Boston

....

 

Even after selling the farm and emptying the treasury to sign Big Game James and Home Run Ervin?

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Let's rank the other 14 in the AL to see where they'd be, then slot the Angels in.

 

Worst 3: Houston, Minnesota, Cleveland

Next 3: KC, Baltimore, Boston

Next 3: NY, Texas, LA.

Next 3: Detroit, Toronto, Chicago

Best 3: Tampa, Oakland, Seattle

 

An argument can be made for putting NY into the top five, but Toronto took a huge step forward with three new starters in Dickey, Johnson, Buerhle. Chicago could slip. Texas could move up. Detroit could move down. KC and Baltimore could move up. Boston could have a better year. Oakland could fall, Tampa could fall, but neither fall far, have been top 5 in pitching for a long time.

 

Still, 7-9th place wouldn't be too bad here as the teams ahead of us, all could drop, and the two best offenses, are right near each other in this set.

 

Best guess, they'll finish between 5th to 10th. Wilson, Vargas have to have great years to match the past three years, but less than 700 runs is possible, especially with an improved back of the bullpen. 

 

Our rotation (A's) is not top three.  Our defense makes it appear like that and will continue to make it appear like that, but we are not a tier one rotation.  The Tigers, Rays and Nationals have vastly superior rotations.

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From the looks of that Angels pitching they need to work on their cap-tipping drills before the season starts.  Here's a legit ranking of the pitching this year: 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-positional-power-rankings-starting-pitchers-1-15/

 

See where the Angels fit in?

 

Our rotation (A's) is not top three.  Our defense makes it appear like that and will continue to make it appear like that, but we are not a tier one rotation.  The Tigers, Rays and Nationals have vastly superior rotations.

 

Nationals are NL dude. I ranked the AL only.

 

The A's have a top five in the AL staff. I don't like Texas' staff as much as the Fangraphs article does, after Darvish and Harrison, they have a bunch of question marks. I said in my comments that you could move NY and Texas up and Oakland could fall. 

 

Mariners got no love in this piece. Last year the staff allowed 651 runs. They no longer have Vargas, and yes they moved the fences in. They no longer have Millwood. But Hernandez, Iwakuma, Beavan, Maurer, Saunders, is a great rotation. Not to mention that they have Hultzen, Paxton, Walker on the horizon. They love the Tigers, who I had listed fourth. Okay. maybe they're top three and the Mariners/A's/Rays move down.

 

Still, the Fangraphs rankings for the AL teams: 1) Tigers, 2) Rangers 3) Yankees (Really?) 4) White Sox 5) A's 6) Red Sox (Really?) 7) Jays 8) Rays...

 

I'd imagine then that the Mariners &  Angels would beat out Minnesota, Houston, Cleveland, Orioles, & Royals…but maybe they like the last two.  They probably put Royals ahead of the Angels…but worst they are 11th. 

 

I also want to state that this was supposedly a ranking of the entire staff, not the rotation. 

 

Oakland's pen is awesome. Pushes them into my top three instead of Detroit who moves down since they are struggling with a Closer decision. Pen issues are well documented here in Anaheim, but I think when all is said and done, the Angels will have a top 5 pen. Yeah I know that sounds crazy.

 

Last season, Tampa, New York, Seattle, Oakland, and the Rangers had top five pen's. Including the pen makes my rankings make a little more sense. I had the Angels 9th as a staff. Best Guess on the Fangraphs rankings would put the Angels 9th to 11th.

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If they're ranking entire pitching staffs, I could see Oakland certainly being top three. That bully is nasty, and the rotation...if everyone stays healthy...is a good one. But that's a big "if" for some of the starters...especially Anderson.

 

The Yankees have a good bullpen, and their top three starters are still CC, Kuroda, and Pettitte. Hughes is certainly not a bad #4.

 

Tampa is Tampa, they could trade their top starter every year and still dominate due to the good arms down on the farm.

 

The Jays are gonna be good, too, if they stay healthy.

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