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Angels Official Website: Weaver primed to show he's still among game's best


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Love ya, Jered, and I hope you remain a career Angel, but...sorry, you're not among the game's best anymore.

 

Actually, in a way Jered reminds me a bit of Chuck Finley. Very different pitcher, but about as good overall. Compare:

 

From 1988-2002, Finley's 15 years as a starter, he was 10th in fWAR among all major league pitchers - right between David Cone and Tom Glavine, and with less innnings than Glavine.

 

From 2006-2013, Weaver's 8 years in the majors, he is 9th in fWAR among all major league pitchers - right between Cole Hamels and Jon Lester.

 

My hope is that Weaver can carry on at the level he's been pitching for the last two years and be a consistent 3+ WAR starter. That's not a great pitcher, but it is a very good one.

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Weav will be a rock as long as he's healthy. He'll continue to get by due to his unorthodox delivery which helps with deception, his impeccable command of all of his pitches, and that change up of his

Even with the decline in FB velocity, he still has a good 10-12 mph difference on his FB/Changeup

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I'm a bit leery of the idea that everyone other than (biased/hopeful) Angels fans are underrating Jered. That said, I think he's far from done and I'm also not a huge fan of WAR to determine pitcher value, which is what the naysayers are generally their view on (and velocity loss).

 

A better stat, in my opinion, is RA9-WAR - which is based upon Runs Allowed, and rewards pitchers like Weaver and Tom Glavine who get good results without gaudy strikeout totals. Let's take a look at his year-to-year RA9-WAR, with MLB ranks:

 

2006: 5.0, 13th

2007: 3.1, 47th

2008: 2.7, 59th

2009: 4.8, 23rd

2010: 5.4, 12th

2011; 8.5, 2nd

2012: 5.4, 11th (adjusted to 210 IP: 6.0, 6th-7th)

2013: 3.3, 40th (adjusted to 210 IP: 4.5, 16-18th)

 

After his great rookie half season in 2006, he was a solid #3 starter for 2007-08, before jumping up a notch in 2009, becoming a solid #2. Ten in 2010 he jumped again and while perhaps not quite a true #1, was at least a "#1.5." Obviously 2011 is the outlier and a true career year - he was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball after Justin Verlander, at least according to RA9-WAR (by WAR he was 7th best).

 

He dropped down in 2012, but at least part of that is due to less innings pitched (to 188) Then a larger drop in 2013, with more loss in innings pitched (154).

 

Actually, one thing we're not talking about is the loss in playing time over the last two years. Wheras Jered pitched a career high 235.2 IP in 2011, he 47 IP in 2012 and another 34.1 IP in 2013. That's perhaps more worrisome than his drop in performance.

 

But he HAS dropped in performance, if not as steeply as WAR would have it. He is still a very good pitcher, although probably no longer a great one. Let's just hope that he can regain his health. If he can pitch 200+ innings, I see an ERA around 3.00-3.30, a WAR around 3-4 and a RA9-WAR around 4-5. But health is at least as much a key as velocity.

 

To put that another way, the difference in his velocity is the difference between him being great and very good, but the difference in his health is the difference between him being very good and just good, and all we really need him to be is very good.

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Weaver's average fastball velocity has gone done every year since 2010. Here's year-by-year:

 

2006: 90.2

2007: 88.8

2008: 89.9

2009: 88.9

2010: 89.9

2011: 89.1

2012: 87.8

2013: 86.5

 

So its been very consistent until 2012, when it dropped more 1.3, then another 1.3 in 2013. Hopefully we won't see it drop another 1.3 because then we're approaching Jamie Moyer (actually, this isn't true as Moyer average in the low 80s, at least in the last ten years of his career when that data is available).

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Weaver's average fastball velocity has gone done every year since 2010. Here's year-by-year:

 

2006: 90.2

2007: 88.8

2008: 89.9

2009: 88.9

2010: 89.9

2011: 89.1

2012: 87.8

2013: 86.5

 

So its been very consistent until 2012, when it dropped more 1.3, then another 1.3 in 2013. Hopefully we won't see it drop another 1.3 because then we're approaching Jamie Moyer (actually, this isn't true as Moyer average in the low 80s, at least in the last ten years of his career when that data is available).

 

His velocity improved as the season went on last season. He started off in the mid 80's range right out of ST which hurt those overall totals, but he was consistently upper 80s and low 90's after he came back from the broken arm. 

 

Anyhow, his best two seasons were in 2011 and 2012. 

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His velocity improved as the season went on last season. He started off in the mid 80's range right out of ST which hurt those overall totals, but he was consistently upper 80s and low 90's after he came back from the broken arm. 

 

Anyhow, his best two seasons were in 2011 and 2012. 

 

I hope you're right, Chuck. But how was 2012 better than 2010? I think 2010 was slightly better, if only because he pitched 36 more innings and struck out more batters, but they are basically a wash.

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This obsession with Weaver's FB velocity is ridiculous. A difference of a couple MPH on the FB is not going to make any difference on a guy who has never needed it. Acting like a 2 MPH drop is going to remove his ace status is just not realistic when he has never given a damn about his velocity, and not once has it hurt his numbers.

 

Until it's proven otherwise, there is no reason to doubt him.

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This obsession with Weaver's FB velocity is ridiculous. A difference of a couple MPH on the FB is not going to make any difference on a guy who has never needed it. Acting like a 2 MPH drop is going to remove his ace status is just not realistic when he has never given a damn about his velocity, and not once has it hurt his numbers.

 

Until it's proven otherwise, there is no reason to doubt him.

 

So you're saying that the drop in his velocity over the last two years has no causal relation to the drop in his overall performance?

 

2011 was clearly his best year and his FB velocity was 89.1, just above his career average (88.9). 2012 was still excellent but not as good, and his velocity dropped to 87.8. 2013 was another drop in performance and his velocity dropped to 86.5.

 

Look, I HOPE I'm wrong but that's a pretty strong correlation. Weaver, in my opinion, isn't a true ace without averaging 89mph. He's still very good at 86-88, but what happens if he drifts lower? Clearly every MPH counts.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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Weaver has always been a statistical oddity that made the typical predictive models scratch their heads..   

 

 

http://statcorner.com/pitch.php?id=450308

 

 

There is a ton of great info in the swing tendencies and the contact rates of hitters Vs Weaver in there.  The biggest difference last year was a spike in his LD% -- guess we will see if that carries over or not.

 

As whole,all the other numbers seem rather static.

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Interesting to see that the LD% was up, but contact and swing-and-miss rates were the best they've been since 2010. Possibly a result of his secondaries being equally effective while his diminished fastball is slightly easier to square up?

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Interesting to see that the LD% was up, but contact and swing-and-miss rates were the best they've been since 2010. Possibly a result of his secondaries being equally effective while his diminished fastball is slightly easier to square up?

 

Yeah, there are some interesting numbers there -- I love the stuff that site tracks, they are an awesome resource when trying to gauge minor league performances, particularly given you can see the league averages and toggle off and on the park adjustments..  

 

I think the LD% was due to his stuff being meh at times, but I do wonder if some of it isn't due to the woefully bad defense last year.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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So you're saying that the drop in his velocity over the last two years has no causal relation to the drop in his overall performance?

 

2011 was clearly his best year and his FB velocity was 89.1, just above his career average (88.9). 2012 was still excellent but not as good, and his velocity dropped to 87.8. 2013 was another drop in performance and his velocity dropped to 86.5.

 

Look, I HOPE I'm wrong but that's a pretty strong correlation. Weaver, in my opinion, isn't a true ace without averaging 89mph. He's still very good at 86-88, but what happens if he drifts lower? Clearly every MPH counts.

 

You're over analyzing it. Players go through peaks and valleys. 

 

Correlation does not equal causation.

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I hope i'm right too, it would suck if Weaver keeps trending downwards but I don't think it'll happen. I just think it's been far too small of a difference in his performance and too much recent success to say he's done as an ace.

 

I can be as negative as everyone else here, but I at least try to stay positive most of the time :P

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