FanGraphs: Multi-Year Deals for Relievers: An Ugly Retrospective

[ettin]

Article on why you shouldn't give 2+ year contracts to relievers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/multi-year-deals-for-relievers-an-ugly-retrospective/

 

Before this season even started Dipoto stated that he didn't like the idea of investing a lot of money in relievers. Unfortunately the one he did sign, Burnett, got injured and combined with other risk based signings such as Madson, left us in a difficult situation with a not-so-good bullpen.

 

I agree with the principal of not overly investing in relievers but we do need to improve in this area in the off season so it may require a signing or two. Trades would probably be preferable in my mind to find a young, flamethrower to fight for the closing role against Frieri, De La Rosa, Burnett, and Coello.

[Angel Oracle]

A lot of teams are developing good bullpens.    Why is it so hard for this org to do so?   Unless the influx of new pitchers is a precursor to finally solving this issue since 2010.

[SoWhat]

That Brandon League deal was flat out stupid. Dodgers outbid themselves

[eaterfan]

Don't unload any talent from this team to get a BP arm! As bad as contracts are giving up talent is even worse. The point of the article isn't that the money was wasted it was that resources are wasted because BP arms are unpredictable and over valued. For the Angels talent is a far more scarce resource than cash is.

 

As for why other teams have built solid pens but we don't, here are my theories:

 

1. Observation. Obviously our pen is bad but we see every time they give up a run and blow a lead. We don't notice when the Marlins do the same.

2. Scouting. Stoneman could find a reliever anywhere

3. Coaching. Maybe it wasn't Stoneman, maybe it was Black who could turn anyone into a reliever.

4. Luck. Maybe we lucked into Shields and rode him for a long time. Now we're in a bad luck cycle.

5. Weak Farm System - I think this is the biggest issue. A lot of good relievers are failed starters. We don't have guys like Hellweg and K-Rod anymore. Not only that we need all of our starting prospects to stay starting prospects or we are screwed in the future. Even if they are better served as relievers.

 

Finally, yes, this team is going to lose about 95 games this season. How many teams have lost 95 games in a season and made the playoffs the next? Not too many. This team should be looking to trade Frieri and let De La Rosa step up as the closer and trade him at the deadline when a team is looking for a "closer" instead of a great relief pitcher.

[Angel Oracle]

I guess on the bright side, we went from 95 losses in 1980 to 93 wins just 2 years later.

Of course signing FA's Jackson, DeCinces, and Boone had something to do with that.

Can Pujols and Hamilton supply the next 2 seasons what those two supplied in 1982?

[ettin]

This is why if you have a team that's not going to contend in a given year, and you have somebody who demonstrates that they're a good "closer," the best thing to do is trade them for things the team needs in the future.

 

The M's have had 2 excellent "closers" in the past 2 years, and their window of excellence was very limited.  They ended up trading them when their value declined.

 

With rare exception, closers and short relievers generally don't dominate for very long.  If you're on a team with little hope of the playoffs, trade them.  

 

This was also true of Joakim Soria when he was with the Royals. He signed his contract and basically didn't pitch for them after his injury.

[ettin]

Don't unload any talent from this team to get a BP arm! As bad as contracts are giving up talent is even worse. The point of the article isn't that the money was wasted it was that resources are wasted because BP arms are unpredictable and over valued. For the Angels talent is a far more scarce resource than cash is.

 

As for why other teams have built solid pens but we don't, here are my theories:

 

1. Observation. Obviously our pen is bad but we see every time they give up a run and blow a lead. We don't notice when the Marlins do the same.

2. Scouting. Stoneman could find a reliever anywhere

3. Coaching. Maybe it wasn't Stoneman, maybe it was Black who could turn anyone into a reliever.

4. Luck. Maybe we lucked into Shields and rode him for a long time. Now we're in a bad luck cycle.

5. Weak Farm System - I think this is the biggest issue. A lot of good relievers are failed starters. We don't have guys like Hellweg and K-Rod anymore. Not only that we need all of our starting prospects to stay starting prospects or we are screwed in the future. Even if they are better served as relievers.

 

Finally, yes, this team is going to lose about 95 games this season. How many teams have lost 95 games in a season and made the playoffs the next? Not too many. This team should be looking to trade Frieri and let De La Rosa step up as the closer and trade him at the deadline when a team is looking for a "closer" instead of a great relief pitcher.

 

Money is a resource?

 

All that I was saying is that JD has made it clear that investing too heavily in relief pitching is not strategically smart. It IS okay to trade for a reliever as long as you don't give up too much in return. Your statement seemingly assumes that we'd have to give up significant talent to get a good young bullpen arm and I don't think that is the case all the time.

 

There is no reason we couldn't make a bigger trade where, for instance, we send Howie Kendrick to another team for a young, high-end starting pitcher along with a couple of more prospects, one of which could be a reliever type?

 

I don't think we are disagreeing on anything to be honest eater.

[eaterfan]

Money is a resource?

 

All that I was saying is that JD has made it clear that investing too heavily in relief pitching is not strategically smart. It IS okay to trade for a reliever as long as you don't give up too much in return. Your statement seemingly assumes that we'd have to give up significant talent to get a good young bullpen arm and I don't think that is the case all the time.

 

There is no reason we couldn't make a bigger trade where, for instance, we send Howie Kendrick to another team for a young, high-end starting pitcher along with a couple of more prospects, one of which could be a reliever type?

 

I don't think we are disagreeing on anything to be honest eater.

 

Money is a resource.

 

I totally agree with what you are saying in this post. I think we both agree that we shouldn't trade a major piece for the purpose of acquiring a relief pitcher. That's what I thought you meant when you said "trade for a reliever" instead of sign one. I wouldn't be opposed if Howie were traded for a SP or a couple of prospects and a RP happened to be part of that trade. Also any starting pitching prospect that comes over and doesn't work out could be made into a reliever.

 

In another thread someone was talking about Kendrick for Jansen and that is the type of trade I don't think the Angels should make.

[AngelsLakersFan]

In the off season everyone on here seemed to think the bullpen issues had been solved by the Madsen / Burnett signings. Best case scenario this was true, but when looking at bullpens I tend to subscribe to the 50% theory. Half of your guys are going to work out, half aren't.

 

Good bullpens are built through sheer numbers, trial and error. With such a weak system there is really nothing that this organization can do to field a good bullpen at this stage of the game. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

A lot of teams are developing good bullpens.    Why is it so hard for this org to do so?  

 

I was thinking about this a couple of nights ago. I was flipping between games throughout the evening, and it seemed that every team I watched had a group of good, young relievers that just came in one after another. Then I switched to the Indians-Angels game and watched one team bring in a string of good relievers while the other brought in a collection of batting practice pitchers. I will let you do the math.

[Docwaukee]

relief pitching starts and ends with your farm system. 

 

organizations do their very best to develop as many starting pitchers as possible.  When a guy doesn't work out as a starter, they are moved to the pen. 

 

while I agree that trying to buy a bullpen is a difficult proposition, there is a huge difference between paying a reliever 4mil per who had a good season (use whatever metric you want - era, WPA, WAR etc) to upgrade over a guy that had a decent season vs. paying that same guy to upgrade over having to cart out Kohn, or Jepsen, or dumpster dive for guys like gutierrez, and lowe.  You have to take into account your starting point.

 

And that is just one of the problems I have in this article.  The second is the metrics they used to evaluate these players.  I don't like WAR for relievers.  Relievers WAR tries to account for the fact that everyone slots a spot from wherever you lose a guy so the replacement isn't actually replacement level, but the next guy down.  Yet at the bottom of the pen you actually do add a replacement player.  So that's my first soapbox.  WAR massively undervalues relievers. 

 

Personally, I like WPA.  Although it's non-predictive, it gives you a much better idea of what someone is was worth and thus what they actually meant to the team in overall value because it also takes leverage into account. 

 

I love advanced metrics, but I consider the accuracy of bullpen value methodology right up there with defensive metrics.  Something is just missing. 

 

With that, and I know people will disagree, but the halos struggles over the last four years correlate very well with the demise of a lock down pen.  Last year, our starting pitching wasn't very good, but to me, the pen was the difference maker.  This year, it was insult to injury.  Why do I consider the last nine out more important than the others?  Because there is a small percentage of the game remaining and you generally know where you stand relative to having a chance to win.  Also, the other team either has a starter in who is on his game or they have brought in other guys that our hitters haven't seen.  That and match ups make a difference, so it's harder to score. 

 

So, most say that they wouldn't trade anything of 'value' for a reliever?  Well, what is value?  To me, value is what a player contributes to help their team win and to me, a shut down or even very good reliever has more value relative to who they'd replace on the team as it stands vs someone like Kendrick or Trumbo and who would replace them.

 

Am I advocating trading Trumbo and Kendrick each for a bullpen arm?  Hell no.  Reason being that the market seems to indicate that we could get a serviceable starter and a pen arm to boot. 

 

My biggest beef with Dipoto, outside of the Blanton deal is how he has left the pen over the last two years.  He has not put enough emphasis on the importance of those last nine outs. 

[Angel Oracle]

Are relievers also on shorter shelf life's because it's easier for hitters to adjust to pitchers who only have 1 or 2 pitches in their arsenal?

[Angel Oracle]

Can Morin be ready to start the season up here, despite no AAA experience?

He seems to be the real deal.

Alvarez is another intriguing guy with the high Ks and low hits allowed in the minors.  

But he hasn't made it to AA yet, and is likely a full year away.  Plus, his control needs some work.

 

I need to look up all relief performances on the farm, and see if any others might be getting closer.

 

Update:  Here are the ones at AAA and AA who stood out, some of which of course have already appeared for the Halos.

Berg (AAA - good WHIP and Ks/BBs), Brasier (AAA - much improved control), Batista (starter at AA, solid WHIP and Ks/BBs), Piazza (AA), Roth (AA/AAA), Chaffee (AA - high Ks, solid ERA, low hits allowed), Maronde (AA/AAA), and Boshers (AA/AAA)

 

Amongst all of the above mentioned plus the current bullpen guys, can we eventually find 7 guys (+ 2 or 3 to fill in for possible DL stints) that can get the job done often enough in 2014/2015?

 

But, they do need to find a closer from elsewhere for at least 2014, as none of the current guys or the ones listed are true closer material at this point.

They may have to take a chance like Texas did on Nathan.   There's always the Beard (although undergoing TWO TJ surgeries).   He is currently hitting low 90s for the Raviners.   Didn't Nathan top out at not much above that the first season for the Twins after his TJ surgery, before gettintg back to mid 90s?

[ettin]

Are relievers also on shorter shelf life's because it's easier for hitters to adjust to pitchers who only have 1 or 2 pitches in their arsenal?

 

I think the main reason they have a short shelf life is because of the extra stress they put on their throwing arms and the higher likelihood they can suffer an injury. Beyond that they may have only 1-3 good to average pitches to throw but to help counter that they usually only come in for one inning which makes it difficult for hitters to find a rhythm or weak spot against them.

 

The relievers with crappy stuff would fit your above statement as they will get tagged up a lot more often by decent hitters.

 

Also most relievers throw a fastball and either a slider, curve, or maybe a change up. They tend to throw a lot of those heavy off speed pitches that have been proven to cause greater injury to the arm if they are thrown more than approximately 30% of the time. This is one reason why I believe Dipoto was worried about Ervin Santana and traded him was because Ervin, as a starter, throws his slider on the order of 35+%.

[stormngt]

A lot of teams are developing good bullpens.    Why is it so hard for this org to do so?   Unless the influx of new pitchers is a precursor to finally solving this issue since 2010.

 

For four years our bullpen as been one of the worst in the league.  For four years the Angels have failed to make the playoffs.  Coincidence??????

 

How long does it take to rebuild the bullpen?????  

[stormngt]

Yeah, man.

 

It's almost universally true.  Every once in awhile you get a dominant closer who lasts for years (kaz sasaki, k-rod, hoffman, and of course, Rivera), but they're the exception, not the rule.  As you said, it can be because of surgery, or because the league simply figures them out.  It's a confidence thing as well.  It's a really stressful role, and I'm amazed that some guys last as long as they do in short relief roles. 

 

I guess the Angels were very lucky when they went from Harvey, to Smith, to Percevil, to KROD.

 

wasn't like over almost 12 years???????

[ettin]

I guess the Angels were very lucky when they went from Harvey, to Smith, to Percevil, to KROD.

 

wasn't like over almost 12 years???????

 

Don't forget the Reliever of the Decade, Scot Shields.

[Angel Oracle]

I guess the Angels were very lucky when they went from Harvey, to Smith, to Percevil, to KROD.

 

wasn't like over almost 12 years???????

Continuously from 1995-2009, although Percival slumping significantly in the 2000 season 

Harvey = 1989-1991

Smith = 1995

Percival = 1996-2004

K-Rod = 2005-2008

Fuentes = 2009, except for the meatball to Pay-Rod