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Victor Rojas (thread) on Twitter re: baseball analytics


Chuck

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There’s obviously something to be said for considering what is happening in front of your face, eg: Wheeler dealing the other night with no apparent sign of slowing down and then taking him out because of the numbers or whatever.  
 

that said.  I don’t really buy the argument that “going with your gut” is a smart alternative to understanding the numbers and generally be guided by them.  The numbers here being a pretty detailed analytical assessment.  “Going with your gut” is just guessing.  It’s non sense.  It’s Joe Maddon walking in a run and then pretending he knew something.  Sorry.  He didn’t know anything.  He was just being stupid and it worked out.  Sometimes things work out when you’re an idiot. And sometimes when you’re trying to be smart it doesn’t work out.  Sometimes it doesn’t work out when you operate according to the analytics. It doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It just means the game still has to be played between the lines. 
 

big fan of Victors.  This is not compelling to me. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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22 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Worth a read...

 

I have been making this argument for a long time.  Analytics is often used as a religion.  It should only be used as information that the manager needs to take into consideration when making strategic moves.

It should not be used for computer geek to make those decisions instead of a manager.

Edited by stormngt
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21 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

There’s obviously something to be said for considering what is happening in front of your face, eg: Wheeler dealing the other night with no apparent sign of slowing down and then taking him out because of the numbers or whatever.  
 

that said.  I don’t really buy the argument that “going with your gut” is a smart alternative to understanding the numbers and generally be guided by them.  The numbers here being a pretty detailed analytical assessment.  “Going with your gut” is just guessing.  It’s non sense.  It’s Joe Maddon walking in a run and then pretending he knew something.  Sorry.  He didn’t know anything.  He was just being stupid and it worked out.  Sometimes things work out when you’re an idiot. And sometimes when you’re trying to be smart it doesn’t work out.  Sometimes it doesn’t work out when you operate according to the analytics. It doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It just means the game still has to be played between the lines. 
 

big fan of Victors.  This is not compelling to me. 

Analytics used for guidance is one thing.  Dictated from them is another.

And a manager taking analytics, the flow of the game, and your knowledge of the players is more than just going with your gut.

Edited by stormngt
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7 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

There’s obviously something to be said for considering what is happening in front of your face, eg: Wheeler dealing the other night with no apparent sign of slowing down and then taking him out because of the numbers or whatever.  
 

that said.  I don’t really buy the argument that “going with your gut” is a smart alternative to understanding the numbers and generally be guided by them.  The numbers here being a pretty detailed analytical assessment.  “Going with your gut” is just guessing.  It’s non sense.  It’s Joe Maddon walking in a run and then pretending he knew something.  Sorry.  He didn’t know anything.  He was just being stupid and it worked out.  Sometimes things work out when you’re an idiot. And sometimes when you’re trying to be smart it doesn’t work out.  Sometimes it doesn’t work out when you operate according to the analytics. It doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It just means the game still has to be played between the lines. 
 

big fan of Victors.  This is not compelling to me. 

was there some article that said he was removed because of numbers?  the analytics?  Thompson said after the game he liked the matchup of Alvarado vs. Alvarez and that he knew Wheeler still had some left in the tank.  Maybe that was the gut instinct of the manager.  

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5 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

What is the flow of the game? What does that mean ? 

As you pitcher faces the line up the third time.  Do you pull him because the numbers say so?

Or has he dominated the game to that point?  

Maybe we need to pull a guy in 7th inning and a no hitter because analytics say so.

Analytics is a predictable science not an absolute scienxe

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There's a reason that analytics exist.   There are absolutely human elements to every sport.  And there is information that allows you to make better decisions in conjunction with identifying those human factor.  But it also saves you from your own inexperience/arrogance.  Going purely with your gut doesn't work either.  

Do people follow a recipe when they bake a cake?  Sure.  It might be on an ipad or printed out or it might be in their head because they've done it so many times.  Sometimes people think they've got the recipe memorized but they forget an ingredient.  Sometime the recipe is complicated and it helps to check and make sure you've got it right.  Sometimes you might add or subtract an additional ingredient on purpose to see if it tastes better.  Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.  Sometimes your oven isn't exactly the temperature you expect.  

If you generally follow the recipe it's gonna turn out pretty well.  You might be able to make some tweaks here and there to make it better.  But in general, following the instructions is going to give you good results.  

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2 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

Enough to not ask THAT question. 
 

But more likely you were just trying to trick/force someone to put an objective definition/metric on a subjective aspect of the game.

No you should answer the question since you’re demanding bonafides to comment on the topic.  I’m starting to suspect you haven’t played much more organized baseball then I have. 

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21 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

There’s obviously something to be said for considering what is happening in front of your face, eg: Wheeler dealing the other night with no apparent sign of slowing down and then taking him out because of the numbers or whatever.  
 

that said.  I don’t really buy the argument that “going with your gut” is a smart alternative to understanding the numbers and generally be guided by them.  The numbers here being a pretty detailed analytical assessment.  “Going with your gut” is just guessing.  It’s non sense.  It’s Joe Maddon walking in a run and then pretending he knew something.  Sorry.  He didn’t know anything.  He was just being stupid and it worked out.  Sometimes things work out when you’re an idiot. And sometimes when you’re trying to be smart it doesn’t work out.  Sometimes it doesn’t work out when you operate according to the analytics. It doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  It just means the game still has to be played between the lines. 
 

big fan of Victors.  This is not compelling to me. 

Compromise Shrug GIF

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I umpire on the side and I can say it's usually obvious when the pitcher is done.  Balls are hit harder,  even foul balls.  Balls that were being swung at are being taken without flinching.  Pitcher body language.  

What we fans don't know is health of the pitcher including the pen. 

Overall however I think analytics,  especially in the playoffs, leads to removing SP too quickly. 

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38 minutes ago, Rollinghard said:

 Here is the thing with analytics. Lets say the analytics indicate a player takes strike one 79% of the time or cant hit high heat. Both the sides know this and players can make adjustments. So analytics are driving the players to make adjustments. Like Ward did. I think       

Thus the need to ban the shift….

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