Weird RBI stats re: Trout/Ward

[Angel Oracle]

They have been usually side by side in the batting order, yet Ward has 16 RBIs and Trout 8 RBIs as of 4/14.

Edited April 14 by Angel Oracle

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

They have been usually side by side in the batting order, yet Ward has 16 RBIs and Trout 8 RBIs as of 4/14.

The guys ahead of Trout haven't gotten on base, so hard for him to drive anyone in. Trout has been on base quite a bit other than his HRs, so gives Ward more opportunities. 

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

They have been usually side by side in the batting order, yet Ward has 16 RBIs and Trout 8 RBIs as of 4/14.

There is nothing weird about it. Trout has had Rendon, Hicks/Schanuel batting in front of him, while Ward has had Trout. 

[ShotimeDynasty]

Not directly related but also interesting

Trout & Ward off to their great starts with completely contrasting adjustments.

Ward swinging much more
Trout swinging much less

 

 

[ettin]

The 3-spot is not traditionally a great run producing spot in the order. Surprised they don't have Trout hitting in the 2-hole or at cleanup. I think they'd be better off putting Ward in the 3-hole and Trout in cleanup.

[ettin]

14 hours ago, ettin said:

The 3-spot is not traditionally a great run producing spot in the order. Surprised they don't have Trout hitting in the 2-hole or at cleanup. I think they'd be better off putting Ward in the 3-hole and Trout in cleanup.

I should clarify that I should have used the word "statistically" instead of "traditionally". It has statistically been proven to be a poor run-producing spot in the order. You normally want to place a good power hitting, higher-strikeout player in that spot with the ability to take a walk when able, ideally.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Ward is 6 for 16 with RISP.

Trout is 1 for 12.

 

There's your explanation. Ward has had more opportunities, and he's done better in them so far.

I'm sure this shit will even out over time. Hopefully.

[redoctober2002]

28 minutes ago, ettin said:

I should clarify that I should have used the word "statistically" instead of "traditionally". It has statistically been proven to be a poor run-producing spot in the order. You normally want to place a good power hitting, higher-strikeout player in that spot with the ability to take a walk when able, ideally.

I question if that's still relevant in the modern game. From what I remember, the data set used to prove this was from 1952-2004. Since then, there has been a much greater emphasis on putting guys who can get on base in those first two spots rather than, fast guy hits leadoff and guy who can bunt bats second. The only team I can think of that batted their best hitter second consistently in recent years were the Yankees and even now they have Judge batting 3rd this year.

[ettin]

So, I am glad to hear someone saying we should always reevaluate data based on one or more modern principles to ensure that the assumptions and calculations put into an original analysis remains true.

For me it should be something like this for early batting orders:

1) One-hole should be a high on-base player, preferably .350 OBP or higher, whether it is through high contact and/or walk rate.

2) Two-hole should be your best pure all-around hitter, with above average contact, power, batting eye, and does not have a high K rate.

3) Three-hole should be a higher power type, preferably with good on-base ability and contact if possible. A high strikeout rate is okay here, because of the cleanup spot.

4) Cleanup hitter should have great run-producing capability with power and solid contact ability.

The reasons in my mind are because a) teams that score first in a game statistically have a much higher chance of winning the game and b) by having at least one person on-base ahead of the 3-spot and cleanup, you give both of those positions the opportunity to drive runs in, particularly in the 1st inning. All it takes is one of those first two hitters to get on-base and you have enough outs to get to the cleanup spot to give your best power hitters and run producers the opportunity to drive in runs.

I think it is still very relevant, because by placing them in those positions you are also giving them more at-bat's over an entire season, which should, hypothetically and statistically, give your team a better chance to score more runs overall during the season.

To be honest I haven't looked at research on this subject in a couple of years, but I think it still holds true. Would love to be proven wrong. I do agree with you that 30 years ago, they were putting speedsters in the leadoff spot, but as it has been shown stealing bases is not as popular as it once was, because in order to have an effective impact on run production, you need fast guys that can successfully steal bases at a 75% success rate or higher. Those guys don't exist as much anymore, although the base enlargement thing may slide that statistical bar more to the left toward 70% for example (just spit-balling on the last number). The first two positions should have good on-base guys, I agree.

By the way, if your team has the luxury of putting a high on-base guy like Judge in the 3-hole, more power to you (or them or whomever). The Angels don't in my opinion. It really should probably have been a Schanuel/Rendon, 1-2 combo of some sort, then Ward, then Trout, to start the season. I say this with a little bit of hindsight to how the season has started, because Ward has about a .328 OBP at the moment, which is lower than average because he is not walking as much as he normally does. At this point I'd reverse Ward and Trout, though. That 5-hole hitter should also be some type of run producer as well to help drive in additional runs if the inning gets off to a good start.

[Chuck]

59 minutes ago, ettin said:

I should clarify that I should have used the word "statistically" instead of "traditionally". It has statistically been proven to be a poor run-producing spot in the order. You normally want to place a good power hitting, higher-strikeout player in that spot with the ability to take a walk when able, ideally.

 

16 hours ago, ettin said:

The 3-spot is not traditionally a great run producing spot in the order. Surprised they don't have Trout hitting in the 2-hole or at cleanup. I think they'd be better off putting Ward in the 3-hole and Trout in cleanup.

Trout got moved up to the #2 spot for the first time this season in today's lineup.